Early Predictions for MLB's Biggest Buyers and Sellers at the Trade Deadline
The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is nearly three months away. A lot can—and will—change between now and then. Injuries, hot streaks and cold spells will inevitably upend the balance of power.
Still, knowing what we know in early May, let's gaze ahead and ponder who will be MLB's biggest buyers and sellers come mid-summer.
For buyers, we're looking at teams in win-now mode with one or more obvious deficiencies and enough chips to swing a deal. For sellers, the profile is clubs likely to fade from contention with useful-yet-expendable veterans on the roster.
One other note: Thanks to the modified qualifying offer rules in the new collective bargaining agreement, this figures to be an especially active deadline for players on expiring deals, as Sports Illustrated's Ken Rosenthal spelled out.
Buyer: Baltimore Orioles
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Two seasons removed from a 96-win campaign, the Baltimore Orioles are carving out a place in the noisy, crowded American League East.
Their offense hasn't fully taken off, but the O's boast an array of mashers, from third baseman and MVP candidate Manny Machado to second baseman Jonathan Schoop.
Pitching, on the other hand, was supposed to be Baltimore's weakness, particularly with ostensible ace Chris Tillman battling a shoulder injury.
So far, Orioles pitchers have held their own. Their starters, however, own a mediocre 4.09 ERA despite strong early performances by Dylan Bundy and Wade Miley.
Baltimore is handicapped by a farm system Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked No. 26 in the game, but the Orioles should be aggressive at the deadline and willing to get creative.
Seller: Cincinnati Reds
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Yes, the Cincinnati Reds are the leaders in the National League Central entering play Monday. Good for them.
Realistically, though, the rebuilding Reds will be out of contention come late July and willing to unload veterans to bolster the farm.
The same could be said for the Milwaukee Brewers, who may ship out slugger Ryan Braun.
The Reds, however, are almost assuredly going to drop out of contention, and they feature attractive trade chips of their own.
Like, for example, shortstop Zack Cozart, an impending free agent who's hitting .351 with a 1.033 OPS. Heck, even franchise icon Joey Votto could be on the block.
For the moment, Reds fans can cling to dreams of a Cinderella run. In the long term, they'll understand the value of building for the future.
Buyer: San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants are bottom-dwellers in the NL West, looking up at the lowly San Diego Padres.
Even with a trio of even-year titles in their pocket and ace Madison Bumgarner on the shelf with a dirt bike-induced left shoulder injury, however, San Francisco is almost certain to go for it.
Catcher and franchise icon Buster Posey is 30 years old, while right fielder and emotional spark plug Hunter Pence is 34. The Giants' championship window isn't shut, but it's closing.
Sure, there's hope for the future, embodied by infield call-up Christian Arroyo, who has injected the club with some desperately needed vim and vigor.
San Francisco has a veritable black hole in left field, however, and questions in the bullpen and rotation. Look for the front office to go shopping come July, and possibly mortgage top names from the farm such as right-hander Tyler Beede and slugger Chris Shaw.
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Seller: Chicago White Sox
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The Chicago White Sox churned through the rumor mill this winter. While Chicago moved ace Chris Sale, it held on to left-hander Jose Quintana and closer David Robertson, among other pieces.
Granted, the Sox sit at 15-15 entering play Monday. Assuming they slip from contention, however, they should be able to move Quintana and Robertson for a gaudy return and could also deal veteran position players such as third baseman Todd Frazier.
The caveat is that Quintana owns a 4.10 ERA through six starts. His string of four consecutive 200-plus-inning season and sub-4.00 ERAs ought to be enough to draw prospective suitors into a bidding war, though, provided he doesn't get hurt or completely melt down.
Buyer: Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners rank second in the AL in runs scored and fifth in OPS. Offense isn't their issue.
They've struggled on the mound, though, posting a 4.42 ERA, second-worst in the Junior Circuit. The bullpen has been even more dreadful, pitching to a 5.43 ERA.
Sure, Seattle could look to move veteran pieces such as designated hitter Nelson Cruz. More likely, though, the M's and general manger Jerry Dipoto will go shopping for pitching help, trying to add a starter and/or a late-inning arm to augment their capable lineup and make a move in the balanced-yet-winnable AL West.
Remember, the Mariners haven't tasted the playoffs since 2001. The motivation in the Pacific Northwest is as thick as a creeping fog.
Seller: Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta Braves moved into a shiny new stadium but haven't glistened in the standings, as they carry an 11-18 record into Monday's action.
No one expected them to be a juggernaut, but the early returns suggest the Braves will jettison their veterans at the deadline if possible.
Outfielder Matt Kemp has a couple of years and more than $30 million left on his contract after this season, but the 32-year-old is hitting .325 with six home runs and could interest a power-starved contender.
Second baseman Brandon Phillips, meanwhile, is slashing .319/.347/.346 and could be expendable with the imminent promotion of top middle infield prospect Ozzie Albies.
Buyer: New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees have shot out of the gate with a 20-9 record, good for first place in the AL East entering play Monday.
They've done it with limited contributions from stud catcher Gary Sanchez, who was sidelined for most of April with a biceps strain. Instead, they've relied on the likes of slugging right fielder Aaron Judge, the Bronx's fence-clearing first-month MVP.
The Yanks are caught between a rebuild and an annual mandate to win, but given their early success it seems likely bordering on certain they'll seek reinforcements come July.
The lineup and bullpen are mostly stout, but the starting rotation could use a boost despite the presence of Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka and a resurgent Michael Pineda.
Overall, Yankees starters own a 4.03 ERA. General manager Brian Cashman won't sell his highly touted farm, but look for New York to dangle a top prospect or two if it means getting an arm in the Quintana mold.
Seller: Kansas City Royals
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After winning the pennant in 2014 and the Commissioner's Trophy in 2015, the Kansas City Royals own the worst record in baseball at 10-20.
Yes, it's early, but the signs are pointing toward sell in KC.
That's especially true considering the Royals have a gaggle of players set to come off the books after the season, including outfielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas and shortstop Alcides Escobar.
None of those names is lighting the league on fire, but all have established track records and proven postseason bona fides.
In late April, general manager Dayton Moore gave his core a vote of confidence.
"Right now this is certainly the group of players that we believe in," Moore said, per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. "There simply is not enough sample size in 2017 to abandon or pull the plug or chart another course."
That's true for the moment. It won't be for much longer.
All statistics and standings current as of Sunday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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