NFL Free Agency: Early Look at the 2018 Class After Week 2

Sean TomlinsonMar 19, 2017

Team building doesn't stop in the NFL. As free agency fades during one spring, there's always an eye toward the next group of high-priced talent and difference-makers who could be that final piece for a championship run.

NFL general managers and talent evaluators have to go through the mental gymnastics of putting together a winning team in the short term while also looking at the hurdles that lie ahead. Sustained success is the goal, and monitoring key potential free agents is very much part of the process.

That is why we're gazing one year into the future, taking this early look at the top storylines and players to watch when the calendar flips to 2018 and a new free-agency class tries to get paid.

In 2018, we'll likely be talking about two generation-defining tight ends making difficult decisions as their careers wind down. The Seattle Seahawks will face a tough decision of their own and a delicate salary-cap dance with safety Kam Chancellor. And for yet another year, the business of catching footballs will be highly profitable.

Before we dive in, there's a caveat. Keep in mind that every year, the market is thinned out first because of contract extensions and then by the franchise tag.

The following players are scheduled to be free agents in 2018, but they were excluded from any discussion. That's because the odds of them hitting the open market range between highly unlikely to you're dreaming. Those players are Drew Brees, Derek Carr, DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk Cousins, Le'Veon Bell, Star Lotulelei, Melvin Ingram, Kawann Short, Desmond Trufant, and Xavier Rhodes.

Maybe, just maybe, you can make an argument for Cousins becoming available, mostly because Washington Redskins management continues to redefine baffling dysfunction.

But quarterback desperation is so high that even mediocre talents (see: Glennon, Mike) are getting treated lavishly as free agents. If a quarterback can perform at an average or slightly above-average level, he'll often be retained because the alternatives are scary. That's why it's also doubtful even Sam Bradford becomes a free agent in 2018.

So the Redskins can't possibly be dysfunctional enough to let Cousins just walk, right?

Here's hoping sanity prevails there. As for the rest of the scheduled 2018 free agents, well, let's take a look.

The Market Could Be Filled with Speed and Shiftiness at Wide Receiver

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If there were a showroom to display the best upcoming free agents, the top 2018 models would all be wide receivers.

Do you need a tall ball snatcher who can grab anything thrown in his vicinity? Then sign up for Alshon Jeffery, who's scheduled to be a free agent again after his prove-it year with the Philadelphia Eagles. Jeffery has battled both injuries and off-field issues, but he's still logged two 1,100-plus yards seasons by the age of 27.

Or maybe you'd prefer a similar receiver, but one whose talent ceiling could be even higher as his pass-catching career just gets going? Terrelle Pryor is more to your liking then.

Pryor also signed a one-year deal after recording 1,007 receiving yards during his first NFL season as a wideout. Being great at one position and even somewhat passable at another is supposed to be nearly impossible. But Pryor's transition from being a tantalizing then failed quarterback to thriving wide receiver, with three 100-plus yard games in 2016, has been remarkable. His growth could spike, setting up a future team nicely with prime seasons from an athletically gifted receiver.

Or are you looking for a smaller and shiftier receiver who can embarrass defensive backs in confined spaces? Then step right up and place a bid on Jarvis Landry or Julian Edelman. Landry has recorded 2,293 receiving yards over the past two seasons, and Edelman has finished with 90-plus catches in three of the past four years.

Yes, the thought of Edelman in another jersey feels strange and may be difficult to compute. But Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is infamously cold with his veterans. Edelman will be only a few months away from turning 32 when he's slated to become a free agent. He could make a solid contribution for a contending team on a short-term contract.

Finally, maybe instead you're the type who would rather wait a little bit and pursue the second tier of free-agent wide receivers? There's plenty to like with that group in 2018 as well, including Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, John Brown, Davante Adams and Taylor Gabriel.

A Final Stand for Aging Tight Ends?

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If we were talking about, say, 2012, teams would be uprooting banks and heaving them at the upcoming class of tight end free agents. But alas, we haven't quite mastered time travel yet, and those pending tight end free agents are not in the age wheelhouse for cashing in.

That's true even for Jimmy Graham, who helped to revolutionize the position in this era.

Sure, he had an amazing recovery from what is usually a catastrophic knee injury, with 923 receiving yards in 2016 after a torn patellar tendon. That's even more impressive considering he was never at full health, as Graham told Dave Richard of CBSSports.com that he barely practiced all season.

But halfway through the 2017 season, he'll turn 31. That's not the age for a significant commitment in terms of dollars or years at tight end. Especially when, despite his recovery, Graham will still have that giant, football-field-sized patellar tendon tear red flag on his career medical history.

The open market in 2018 could also be set to make the ultimate statement on what lies ahead for two future Hall of Famers: Jason Witten and Antonio Gates.

They respectively rank third and fifth on the post-merger list of most tight end receiving yards. Gates has 111 career touchdowns, which ties him with Tony Gonzalez for the most all time among tight ends. If their teams decide to move on, it's far more likely both Witten and Gates retire. But one last victory lap elsewhere in the pursuit of a championship is always a possibility.

The open market could make another strong statement about the Bengals' Tyler Eifert, and what the NFL thinks of his yo-yo career so far. The 2013 first-round pick is entering the final year of his contract, and has struggled to stay healthy while playing just 22 of a possible 48 games over the past three seasons. But he's played at a high level during his rare periods of health, snatching 13 touchdown receptions in 2015.

The Bengals could understandably be hesitant to give him a long-term deal. But Eifert will still only be 27 heading into free agency, so another team might not share that feeling.

Aging Pass-Rushers Could Be Left to Hang On Too

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Free agency generally isn't kind to those who are still young men by normal human age standards but getting creaky and ancient by football standards.

That's a reality we're reminded of every year when former megastars are left waiting for work well into late March, or often far beyond. Running backs Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles are being greeted with that stiff, cold breeze. The same gust of nothingness could greet the aforementioned group of tight ends in 2018, though again, it's more likely they drift off into retirement.

Instead, the real age wall on the open market will be the one the group of pass-rushers faces. The list of mid-30s defensive linemen set to see what they're worth is lengthy. It starts with Haloti Ngata and also includes Kyle Williams, Rob Ninkovich and Brian Robison. They'll all be 34 by March 2018, and Robison will turn 35 a month later.

Retirement is always a possibility, but there are plenty of precedents for premier pass-rushers playing into their late 30s and still doing it at a high level with reduced snaps. The most recent is Julius Peppers, who just signed a one-year deal worth $3.5 million with the Carolina Panthers after recording 7.5 sacks during his age-36 season.

That's the same total Robison posted in 2016 at the age of 32, and Williams was also highly effective as a 3-4 defensive end, with five sacks and 38 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Then there's Ninkovich, who generated four sacks during a championship season, a fine output considering he missed four games and, when healthy, was used in a situational role while playing only 59.1 percent of the Patriots' defensive snaps.

So there's hope for nearly all of the aging quarterback pursuers. Except for Ngata, who has been declining for several years, which only four sacks since he was traded to the Detroit Lions in 2015. He also hasn't played a full season since 2011.

Among the more youthful defensive linemen likely set to get paid are Ezekiel Ansah, Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei.

A Few Shutdown Cornerbacks Are About to Get Paid

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It would take a serious breakdown between team and player for either the Atlanta Falcons' Desmond Trufant or the Minnesota Vikings' Xavier Rhodes to leave his NFL home. But strangely, the Los Angeles Rams' Trumaine Johnson has yet to be rewarded with long-term security.

He was franchised-tagged for the second straight season. Now rumors are swirling about a possible swap with the Cleveland Browns, with NFL Network's Ian Rapoport recently telling us to keep an eye on them if Johnson's trade market heats up (h/t NFL Media's Marc Sessler).

And it likely will in the coming weeks as the draft nears. But regardless of where Johnson finds himself, there will still be the matter of giving him a long-term commitment. The Browns could be the team to do that and certainly have the cap space—$63.6 million, per Spotrac—to secure him for years to come.

For now, there's still some uncertainty swirling around a cornerback who is only one season removed from recording seven interceptions and finished 2016 with a solid, if less than spectacular, passer rating in coverage of 89.4, per PFF.

Johnson will be getting ready to enter his age-28 season in 2018. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts' Vontae Davis is entering the final year of his contract as well, and he should be able to pocket a sizable chunk of change too, even while two years older. Davis has totaled nine interceptions over the past three seasons and in 2016 allowed a reception on only 53.2 percent of his targets in coverage, again per PFF.

Aside from those two, the available talent at cornerback likely won't be nearly as deep as it was in 2017, especially if the expected re-signings take place. That's always a tough future to face in a league where the hunger for shutdown corners is never satisfied.

The Kam Chancellor Decision Is Coming

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A week ago, the idea of Kam Chancellor playing anywhere but with the Seattle Seahawks would have seemed laughable.

Sure, there were tensions in the past, and they resulted in Chancellor's holdout that extended into the regular season in 2015. But that came during a time when Chancellor was among the league's highest-paid strong safeties, which gave his team more leverage. Technically, he still is, too, but that gap between Chancellor and the top has grown, and the Seahawks' salary-cap room has shrunk.

The Miami Dolphins reset the strong safety market when they re-signed Reshad Jones just prior to the start of free agency. Jones is now playing under a contract that will pay him an average of $12 million per year. That makes him the league's highest-paid safety, per Spotrac, and his deal towers over the one paying Chancellor $7 million per year.

There's no age difference between the two, as Jones is 29 years old and Chancellor will celebrate his 29th birthday in April. Chancellor is a four-time Pro Bowler, and although Jones missed much of 2016 with a torn rotator cuff, he's only a year removed from excelling against both the run and pass, with five interceptions and 135 tackles.

Jones is the more versatile safety and deserves to be paid accordingly. Chancellor is the heavy-hitting muscle. Still, the gap between them financially shouldn't be nearly as large, and the Seahawks are projected to have a modest $33.4 million in cap room for 2018. That's when they'll also have to make a decision on Graham.

Keeping the famed Legion of Boom together as they age was always going to be tough. And another major hurdle looms in 2018.