Monday Morning Digest: Wild-Card Wins No Guarantee of 2nd-Round Success

If you expected the unexpected, then Wild Card Weekend didn't live up to your expectations. 

The Steelers overwhelmed the Dolphins. The Connor Cook-led Raiders proved no match for the Texans defense. The Legion of Boom and the 12th Man ganged up on the Lions, with the help of Russell Wilson and some of the strangest receptions you'll ever see. And Aaron Rodgers remained in run-the-table mode on the frozen tundra.

Four games, four wins by home favorites.

But there is plenty to talk about, from second-round playoff previews to gossip from the coaching carousel to the MVP debate. It's all just a click away in this week's Digest!

Cold Water for Momentum: Wild-Card-Winner Weaknesses

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Teams that win during Wild Card Weekend usually enter the second round of the playoffs a little overrated.

You know the drill: The Packers, Seahawks, Steelers and Texans are all "hot" right now, having gained "momentum" and become "battle-tested" by "proving their mettle" in convincing playoff victories.  Meanwhile, we have heard nary a peep from the Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons and Patriots, who no doubt spent the last week spilling potato chip crumbs down their shirts and waiting to get upset.

Despite a quartet of lopsided playoff victories, fans don't seem to be as convinced by this year's wild-card winners as they have been in the past. All four lines, per OddsShark, favor the rested home teams, with point spreads ranging from minus-one (Chiefs over Steelers) to minus-16 (Patriots over Texans).

Digest will now toss a bucket of ice water on all four wild-card round victories. The weekend offered reminders about why each of these teams was forced to play an extra game before going on the road in the first place:

Packers

The Packers looked darn good, at least from the halftime Hail Mary onward. But they appeared to be lapsing back into their autumn offensive funk for much of the first half.

They are still capable of getting stuck in an offensive rut where they stop trying to run the ball and fans can start to predict the play calls, particularly if Jordy Nelson (ribs) is out. (Here comes the flat pass to Randall Cobb!) If that happens, the Packers will find that the Cowboys won't accommodate them by making offensive mistakes the way the Giants did.

Texans

Brock Osweiler only looks confident and credible when throwing between the numbers within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. You can't beat the Patriots with two-yard handoffs and shallow crossing routes. But no one expects an upset in Foxborough from the Texans, anyway.

Steelers

The kickoff-coverage unit looks terrible, which is a big issue when preparing to face Tyreek Hill. The whole team appeared to lose focus and start goofing off once it built a 20-3 second-quarter lead. Ben Roethlisberger (pictured) made some nutty throws, defenders began overpursuing and blowing coverages, and so on.

Mistakes like those will hurt the Steelers versus an opponent with a healthy starting quarterback and an opportunistic secondary. Also, Roethlisberger was wearing a protective boot during his postgame press conference. Probably nothing, right?

Seahawks

Saturday night's victory was much closer on the field than in the stat sheet.

Thomas Rawls (161 yards) was running at will against an injury-riddled Lions defense, and Matthew Stafford seemed to spend the whole game facing 3rd-and-long, yet the Seahawks didn't mount a two-score lead until midway through the fourth quarter.

Let a team like the Falcons stay one big play away from beating you, and they will drop three or four big plays on you.

Digestible Nuggets

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This week's nuggets take one last look back, as well as a quick look ahead, for the teams knocked out of the playoffs.

Giants

What happened to the Giants on Sunday had nothing to do with the "party boat," except, as Odell Beckham Jr. said after the game, the manufactured scandal became a distraction for distraction's sake.

The Giants offense hasn't needed an excuse to look inconsistent and sloppy all season. That's what it is, right down to, and especially, Beckham (pictured). Judging character or analyzing performance based on out-of-context photos taken one week before a game is lazy and cynical.

The only thing lazier and less genuine is the passive-aggressive tack some in the media are taking: Gosh, it might be unfair, but right or wrong, the party-boat story might just stick to these fellas. It is unfair and wrong, but if you feel otherwise, say so honestly.

The Giants offense has some offseason work to do. Beckham could stand to grow up a little and temper his giddy highs and wall-punching lows. But the players should enjoy their down time any way they want, within reason.

Dolphins

The Dolphins didn't look like a franchise heading in the right direction Sunday, but they are. Once they get better (and healthier) on the defensive back seven, they will be more of a match for the AFC heavyweights.

It's up to the front office to avoid the quick fix or change-for-change's-sake moves that have kept the organization spinning its wheels for a decade.

Lions

The Lions have a roster that barely qualifies as "playoff-caliber" and may still lose defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to the coaching carousel.

There's a risk that they will endure a "sideways" offseason, making minor upgrades through the draft while a coaching transition sets the defense back a bit and the Vikings and Bears get much better just by getting healthy. (And the Packers keep being the Packers.)

It's a predicament, the result of an average team looking deceptively great for a few months thanks to the schedule, special teams and a few fourth-quarter big plays.

Raiders

The Raiders will definitely want to use some of their kazillion dollars in cap space for a veteran insurance quarterback behind Derek Carr next season. The problem is that insurance veterans are in short supply, with many of the most well-known (like Brian Hoyer) likely to get injured themselves and compound the emergency.

Three available options may draw snickers from the peanut gallery but make perfect sense to the Raiders.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has proved he can come off the bench and cause trouble with a good supporting cast. Case Keenum is affordable, adequate and accustomed to dire situations. Blaine Gabbert offers starter-grade measurables, which is sometimes all you can ask for in an emergency starter.

Game Preview: Seahawks at Falcons, 4:35 P.m. ET Saturday

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Heading In

On Saturday, the Seahawks produced their most convincing overall win since the Week 13 blowout of the Panthers. In a 26-6 defeat of the Lions, even their offensive line looked good, give or take three sacks, Russell Wilson getting his foot stepped on by his own lineman and other miscues we overlook when grading on the Seahawks Line curve.

The defense also appeared to have finally adjusted to Earl Thomas' absence, with Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett lifting the pass rush and the run defense making life easier on the depleted Legion by setting up lots of 3rd-and-long situations.

How It Will Go

The Falcons lost 26-24 to the Seahawks in Seattle in October. It was a wild game that came down to a no-call on a Richard Sherman-Julio Jones downfield tangle. For two different yet well-matched teams, home-field advantage could make all the difference.

Kam Chancellor was unavailable in the previous matchup, so the Falcons are once again facing a short-handed Legion of Boom. The Seahawks were able to shut down the Falcons' running game (52 yards on 18 carries, with some help from that early 17-3 lead), but they were also susceptible to major coverage whoopsies (forgetting to cover Levine Toilolo on a 46-yard touchdown).

The October Falcons sacked Wilson just once and generated little pass pressure throughout the game. The January Falcons have improved both their overall defense and their ability to beat opponents with Mystery Offensive Contributors of the Week in support of Jones, Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman. The Seahawks, on the other hand, were backsliding before Saturday's playoff win.

The biggest difference between October's game and Saturday's rematch will be the venue. Seattle's 12th Man advantage is most extreme near the end zones, where crowd noise is loudest. Ryan lost a fumble near his own end zone in the October game, helping the Seahawks build their early lead. With the Falcons less likely to make early mistakes in their home dome, they will spend less time playing catch-up and more time dictating to the Seahawks on both sides of the ball.

Prediction

Falcons 30, Seahawks 28. Just like in the 2012 playoffs.

Player Spotlight: Jadeveon Clowney, Defensive End, Texans

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What He Did

Along with fellow pass-rusher Whitney Mercilus, Clowney is the reason why the Texans didn't collapse and become the Jacksonville Jaguars the moment J.J. Watt got hurt in the regular season.

Clowney's leaping interception of a Connor Cook screen pass set up an early Texans touchdown in what became a 27-14 win. His playoff performance proved to a national audience just how valuable he has become. 

What It Means

Clowney rarely dominates the stat sheet. He recorded just one tackle and no sacks Saturday, in part because he kept flushing Cook or a running back into another defender's arms. He registered just six sacks in the regular season despite constantly beating blocks and causing mayhem in the backfield.

But Clowney combines an incredible size-athleticism package with hustle and the instincts to recognize misdirection plays like that ill-fated screen pass. He's the defender who makes the quarterback step up in the pocket, the running back cut back before he wants to and the tight end stay in to block.

Clowney was practically preordained as a draft bust. Everything from his effort to his health to his actual ability was questioned long before the Texans took him first in the 2014 draft. The book on the "bust" narrative should have closed last year. Saturday's game sent that book back to a dusty, forgotten library shelf.

What Comes Next

The big plays won't come as easily for Clowney or Mercilus (who recorded two sacks against the Raiders) now that the Texans aren't facing a third-string rookie behind a banged-up line. But Clowney and Mercilus remain the team's only conceivable path to the AFC Championship Game.

If the Texans can occupy the old Broncos (formerly Ravens) niche in the playoff ecosystem as the team that wins with sacks and turnovers, they have an outside shot of playing beyond next weekend. 

Player Spotlight: Le'Veon Bell, Running Back, Steelers

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What He Did

Bell set a Steelers franchise playoff record with 167 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 30-12 rout of the Dolphins.

One 10-play Steelers touchdown drive consisted solely of Bell handoffs. On two third-quarter scoring drives, he accounted for 64 of the Steelers' 68 scrimmage yards.

Bell gouged the Dolphins over and over with his signature stop-and-go rushing style, which makes him look more like a point guard setting up the defense for a drive from the perimeter than a running back hammering away at the line.

What It Means

As I wrote in a Sunday postgame column, the Steelers' Big Three of Bell, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown had never before played together in a postseason game. The interplay of the three offensive superstars, with an assist from a good offensive line, made the Steelers offense unstoppable at times.

The Steelers can beat opponents with a simple rock-paper-scissors approach to offense: Bell runs if the safeties are deep, Brown looks for big plays if the opponent tries to stop the run, and Big Ben distributes the ball elsewhere once the defense tries to do too many things at once.

What Comes Next

The Chiefs have a vulnerable run defense: 1,938 yards, 4.4 yards per rush and 10 touchdowns allowed in the regular season. They face the same pick-your-poison scenario every team has faced since the Steelers Big Three has gotten healthy. If they choose to prevent Brown big plays and force Big Ben mistakes -- the typical Chiefs strategy -- Bell make pick them apart.

Game Preview: Packers at Cowboys, 4:40 p.m. ET Sunday

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Heading In

The Packers overcame a shaky start against the Giants to pull away late for a 38-13 win that had most of the earmarks of a typical Packers victory: Aaron Rodgers heroics, a successful Hail Mary, great run defense, little run offense, an unforced error (read: dropped pass) or two by the opponent and a long stretch when the offense looked so dull and predictable that Packers fans had flashbacks to mid-October.

The Cowboys clinched home-field advantage three weeks ago and spent the end of the season carefully balancing workloads and health risks with momentum alchemy when deciding which starters (and expensive superstar backups) to rest before the playoffs.

Few teams in recent history spent as much time as the Cowboys reading the rest-versus-rust tea leaves. None of it really matters, because no major players were significantly injured in meaningless action, and teams good enough to clinch in Week 15 have plenty of margin for error when it comes to overthinking simple decisions.

How It Will Go

We will all make a fuss about the Ice Bowl, even though it took place years before most of us were born, and then about the #DezCatch game from the 2014 season's playoffs, even though it clearly was correctly called as not a catch.

Then we will remember the Cowboys beat the Packers 30-16 in Lambeau in mid-October. Ezekiel Elliott (pictured) rushed for 157 yards. Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns. Dez Bryant didn't even play.

That was a different Packers team than the one we have seen lately, but not that different. Ty Montgomery was already involved in the offense at that point. Clay Matthews and the secondary were as healthy as they are now.

The Cowboys are just built to counteract Rodgers' whiz-bang heroics with a bend-but-not-break defense and a ball-control offense. The Cowboys' running game neutralizes the Packers blitz and uses the team's defensive aggressiveness against it. The conservative Cowboys defense forces Rodgers to matriculate down the field with flat passes and running plays, causing Packers drives to stall whenever the quarterback is less than perfect.

Rodgers has not been less than perfect often. But the Cowboys don't need perfection to win. They just need to play their brand of football.

Prediction

Cowboys 27, Packers 23

Scenes from the Coaching Carousel

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Updates and observations from the roiling junior-high relationship drama that is the NFL coaching search:

• Now that the Dolphins and Lions are done, look for the coaching searches to come to a boil. Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin are free to interview anywhere and everywhere. Also, the lingering pipe dream that Bill O'Brien might hit the market likely ended with the Texans victory. Once Joseph gets hired, probably by the Broncos, the dominoes will start falling.

• Yes, Joseph's Dolphins defense looked terrible Sunday. Smart organizations like the Broncos will look at his body of work and the attributes that could make him a successful head coach, not one playoff game in which everything went belly-up (though Sunday's performance will at least be talked about). Foolish organizations base major decisions on one game.

• The Bills may have let interim coach Anthony Lynn (pictured) get away by sabotaging their quarterback situation and publicly displaying their managerial dysfunction over the last three weeks. A better-run franchise would have smoothly transferred power to a coordinator it held in as high regard as the Bills hold Lynn. If Lynn bolts, the Bills will end up hiring their fourth or fifth choice as head coach.

• Now that they have gutted their defensive staff, the Redskins should move hard to hire Wade Phillips. He's the obvious answer to the team's dilemma of how to win a Super Bowl with a roster full of wild-card talent.

• The vacant Jets offensive coordinator job is extremely unappealing. The team is locked into granting a full shot to at least one of its shaky quarterback prospects, the offensive line is old, Brandon Marshall has become a de facto combination receiver/coordinator/executive, and whoever gets hired will probably get caught in a clean organizational sweep if he doesn't perform a miracle.

• One thing to look out for as Gregg Williams replaces Ray Horton as the Browns defensive coordinator, besides even more allegations of dirty play reverberating through the AFC North: Williams has become a major advocate of using converted safeties or nickel defenders in traditional linebacker roles. The Browns will be able to ping-pong all over the draft board in April, and Williams may position them to select high-upside slot-safety prospects like Jabrill Peppers or Budda Baker.

Meanwhile, in 49ers land:

Jeff Garcia, last seen as the quarterbacks coach of the Montreal Alouettes, passive-aggressively lobbied to be the 49ers head coach on Bay Area radio station KNBR (h/t CSN Bay Area) during the week.

"As much as I believe and feel that I am capable of leading a team, people don't want you to be able to take the shortcut," he said.

Yeah, people are funny about expecting silly stuff like "experience" and "qualifications" from high-profile executives.

Garcia then said that his years as a quarterback, and the fact that his father was a head coach (at the JUCO level), make him ready to lead an NFL team. "And that's what this team needs—they need a leader of the football team," Garcia said.

Good heavens, who on Earth would fall for such facile reasoning?

(Checks Jed York’s prior history.)

(Checks current political situation.)

Never mind.

Wild Card Weekend Awards

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Defender of the Week

James Harrison (pictured) recorded 1.5 sacks, forced a Matt Moore fumble that killed a Dolphins drive that might have turned the game around and totaled 10 tackles as he flew around the field closing off cutback lanes for Jay Ajayi and hustling to the perimeter to blow up wide receiver screens.

Offensive Line of the Week

Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell set a team postseason record with 167 rushing yards. Dolphins defenders, including Ndamukong Suh, spent Sunday afternoon getting pushed five yards down the field like curling stones.

So let's hear it for Alejandro Villanueva, Ramon Foster, Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro and Marcus Gilbert!

Special Teamers of the Week

This wasn't a great weekend for special teams, especially for the teams that won. The Packers will split this award among several teammates: Micah Hyde, Christine Michael and Jeff Janis for punt and kick returns that provided an edge, and Jacob Schum for netting 41.8 yards per punt on an icy day when Giants counterpart Brad Wing kept shanking 35-yarders.

Mystery Touch of the Week

Dolphins safety Michael Thomas gained three yards and a first down on a fake punt. Run the five-second play 10 times, and the Dolphins could almost fill a minute-long highlight reel from Sunday.

Mystery Butt of the Week

Doug Baldwin's right butt cheek caught a 10-yard pass. That butt cheek would have been the second-best wide receiver on the Eagles' depth chart.

Reverse Fantasy Leech of the Week

Let's face it: Baldwin did a lot of fantasy players a favor when he snatched that touchdown from Jermaine Kearse. People who insert Kearse into fantasy lineups don't deserve to win.

Dumb Activity of the Week

Several players, including Odell Beckham Jr. of the Giants and Ryan Shazier of the Steelers, elected to warm up shirtless despite sub-zero wind chills in Pittsburgh and Green Bay.

Next steps for NFL players seeking meaningless/counterproductive displays of toughness: Wearing wetsuits before September home games in Florida, standing with their ears against the loudspeakers in Seattle and Green Bay, and (let's see who is manly enough to try this) justifying stadium-funding referendums an hour before kickoff to taxpayers in Atlanta, San Diego or Oakland.

Second-Round Fantasy Digest

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Hints and tips as you start assembling next week's daily fantasy lineup.

Falcons

Just in case you are sifting through the Falcons' rando squad in search of cheap pickups: 10 of Justin Hardy's 32 targets have come inside the red zone. And few No. 2 running backs are as reliable as Tevin Coleman. Coleman gets eight to 16 carries and two to four targets per week and sees some goal-to-go touches. He averages 72 scrimmage yards per game when healthy.

Cowboys

In his last five full games, Dak Prescott averaged 198 passing yards, 1.2 touchdowns and 25 rushing yards per game. That's not great production even before you account for the "rookie in the playoffs" risk. There are better sources of safe quarterback production in this playoff round.

Prescott has thrown 30 goal-to-go passes this season, with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Cole Beasley, Brice Butler and Terrance Williams each getting four to seven targets. That kind of diversity is good for the Cowboys offense, but it could sink your fantasy team if you select any skill-position player besides Ezekiel Elliott.

Texans

Lamar Miller rushed 21 times for 80 yards against his next opponent, the Patriots, in Week 3. Against the Raiders on Saturday, he had 31 munch-the-clock carries for 73 yards.

This is typical. You should know what you are getting from Miller, fantasy-wise: a talented runner getting force-fed footballs by a team desperately trying to take pressure off its quarterback, with underwhelming results.

Chiefs

Jeremy Maclin's stats since he returned from injury to find Tyreek Hill had taken over as the Chiefs' top playmaker: 14-160-0 on 20 targets in four games.

Alex Smith's career stats in five playoff games: 261.8 passing yards per game, 2.2 touchdowns per game, just a smidge below 40 rushing yards per game and only one career interception. That's safe fantasy production at a fraction of the likely Tom Brady-Matt Ryan price.

Packers

The Jordy Nelson rib injury and a possibly gimpy Ty Montgomery (knee) could reopen the door to fantasy starting lineups for Randall Cobb.

Cobb was targeted 37 times in a three-week October span that included the Cowboys game, catching 27-266-2 in that span. Of course, Cobb is no secret or cheap pickup after his 5-116-3 effort Sunday, and he could be right back in a three-target, short-pass role if both Nelson and Montgomery are a go.

Patriots

LeGarrette Blount (pictured) scored 18 rushing touchdowns this year? LeGarrette Blount scored 18 rushing touchdowns this year! Sorry, we should have noticed that earlier. We're just used to the Patriots scattering all of those goal-line touchdowns among a dozen different situational running backs, third-string tight ends, undrafted wide receivers and moonlighting linebackers.

Anyway, Blount ranks a notch below the more consistent all-purpose backs like Elliott or Devonta Freeman. The Patriots have a long history of surprising opponents with all-new strategies in the playoffs.

Steelers

Keep in mind that offensive coordinator Todd Haley doesn't use change-up backs, even when it might make sense to use them (like the fourth quarter of a playoff game with a 24-point lead). Starting DeAngelo Williams in search of a few cheap yards makes about as much sense as starting Tony Romo.

Seahawks

The Seahawks are going to score some points against the Falcons.

Doug Baldwin (11 catches on 12 targets for 104 yards and one touchdown Saturday) won't need any unconventional touchdowns to be productive against Atlanta.

Beware of Thomas Rawls, who was slumping badly before his 161-yard explosion against the Lions.

MVP Final Thoughts

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The NFL Most Valuable Player argument grew intense and rancorous during the week, as rival camps of Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers supporters bashed each other with clubs and cudgels while the Tom Brady and Cowboys Rookies clans clashed on the perimeter of the debate, turning the NFL's social networks into a World of Warcraft knockoff.

At the risk of further aggravating everyone while satisfying no one, here are some thoughts on the debate:

• MVP awards are won in November and early December, when voters start compiling end-of-the-year lists. It may not be fair, but a spectacular season finish doesn't complement the way people make decisions.

• The Rookie of the Year award and the new Offensive Line of the Year award cover the Cowboys nicely this year, award-wise. Also, if there's debate over rookie teammates about worthiness for an MVP award, it's a good sign that neither is an exceptional MVP candidate.

• If the NFL were a high school, Tom Brady would be the valedictorian with a free ride to an Ivy League school, as well as prom king with 12 varsity letters. At some point, you acknowledge greatness, then look for opportunities to award the Science Fair Blue Ribbon to some of the other kids. The fact that the Patriots went 3-1 without him is one of those opportunities.

•Rodgers' MVP problem is simple: Many experts (including some of my analytics colleagues) were pounding the table and insisting that Rodgers had descended into mediocrity as recently as the Packers' loss to the Titans in mid-November. A player who looked nothing like an MVP candidate as of Week 10 may have a weaker claim to the award than someone who had a steadier season.

• As for "supporting cast" arguments: If Rodgers did more with less than Matt Ryan, I would consider that a convincing argument. He did a little less with less.

• Yearly awards are snapshots of what happened during the season, not what could have happened if someone had better receivers or a defender didn't drop an interception or something. The Falcons won 11 games with a young, leaky defense and scored 33.75 points per game, so Matt Ryan should be the MVP.