The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 5
Gambling on the NFL can be brutal, as we learned in Week 4.
For example, with a third of the fourth quarter left in the San Diego-New Orleans matchup, the Chargers, a short home favorite, were up 11 points against the Saints. If you had San Diego's side of the point spread, you might have caught a quick nap before the Sunday Night Football matchup, as the Chargers had to give up two separate scores in the final minutes of the game for New Orleans to cover.
What happened? Exactly that.
San Diego's last six plays went as so: fumble, fumble, sack, fumble, incomplete pass and interception. In what seemed like a matter of moments, the Chargers went from holding onto a 34-21 lead in a statement game to falling to 1-3 in a 35-34 loss.
Last year, only two teams were able to bounce back from a 1-3 record to finish over .500 at the end of the season. The thin margin of victory, which can come down to two plays, can completely swing a game in the NFL.
That is the difference between winning and losing bets.
Looking at the NFL from a handicapping perspective can enhance your Sundays, as you can choose a rooting interest in any game you wish, unlike your fantasy team, which only holds players from a select amount of squads that you locked into during the draft. Follow us as we try to make our best educated guesses at where your best chances of victory are, by looking at recent trends and what books are telling you by their power rankings.
As always, our gambling lines are taken from Odds Shark, an aggregate of online and Vegas books.
Record ATS total: 25-34
Record ATS last week: 6-7
Arizona vs. San Francisco
1 of 15
Line: Arizona -2.5
Result: Arizona 33, San Francisco 21
The San Francisco 49ers just couldn't hang in this game, even with Arizona's starting quarterback, Carson Palmer, missing the matchup. After a scoreless 26 minutes to start the game, the floodgates opened.
The Cardinals were able to build a three-touchdown response to the 49ers' first blood strike and were eventually up 17 points in the fourth quarter. They sacked Blaine Gabbert seven times, won the turnover battle, had a better day on the ground and had more time of possession than San Francisco.
The 49ers, who have now lost four straight after opening up with a 28-0 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 1, look like one of the worst teams in the NFL. They now get a long rest after Thursday Night Football to figure out their quarterback situation before they go toe-to-toe with the Buffalo Bills, who beat Arizona 33-18 in Week 3 and handed the New England Patriots their first loss of the season last week.
Cover: Arizona
Tennessee vs. Miami
2 of 15
Opening line: Miami -3.5
Best home line: Miami -3
Best away line: Tennessee +3.5
The Tennessee Titans are a combined 3-16 straight up in their last 19 games. In their 16 losses, 14 of them have come by at least three points, with their most recent loss passing under that bar coming in their fourth game of the 2015 regular season.
If this line was set for their last 19 games, they would have covered it only five times. If this line was set for their last 16 games, they would have covered it only three times.
In the Titans' wins since Week 2 of last season, they've outscored their opponents only 86-78 at the end of regulation. This simply isn't a good team. In fact, it's one of the worst in the NFL.
According to FiveThirtyEight's ELO Rating, they are the 32nd team in the league. The same metric gives the Miami Dolphins a 72 percent chance of winning, the best mark for a squad with a losing record on Sunday. Based on recent history, you can claim that the Dolphins should cover or push a three-point spread 87.5 percent of the time, if they do in fact come out with a win.
This line just isn't high enough to rationally consider the Titans, especially with Miami coming off of a long rest after Thursday Night Football last week.
The pick: Miami -3
Washington vs. Baltimore
3 of 15
Opening line: Baltimore -4
Best home line: Baltimore -3.5
Best away line: Washington +4
Close games tend to even out over the course of a season. The Baltimore Ravens, who have won three out of four single-score games this regular season, are the league's biggest regression-to-the-mean candidate.
This line assumes a one-score game, with the decision coming down to if you believe that it comes down to a field goal or more. On a neutral field, this would put the Ravens and Redskins near even from a power-ranking standpoint.
The question is, are the Redskins really a true road team in this scenario? You can assume that Washington fans can make the drive to M&T Bank Stadium, as it's only about 30 miles away from FedEx Field.
The Ravens are getting the benefit of the doubt for having a true home-field advantage, even if their stadium will have a significant amount of Redskins fans. They are also due for a loss sooner rather than later, based on their record in close games.
Washington wasn't able to win a single game against a team with a winning record last season, but with a victory over the New York Giants it's possible that the team has already ended that streak this season. You'll see "3-1" and "1-3" next to these teams' names, but neither are totally representative of their true talent.
The pick: Washington +4
Chicago at Indianapolis
4 of 15
Opening line: Indianapolis -4.5
Best home line: Indianapolis -4
Best away line: Chicago +5
The Chicago Bears are just 1-3 against the spread this season, but last year, as an away team, they finished the year 6-2 against the spread, per TeamRankings.com. For the most part, bettors have undersold the potential of the Bears, especially on the road, under head coach John Fox.
Just think about the narrative last week, when after a prime-time blowout against the Dallas Cowboys, few believed that Chicago could have pulled off a home divisional game against the Detroit Lions, as they were field-goal underdogs at Soldier Field. The Bears then went on to win that game by three points themselves, clearing the line by nearly a touchdown.
On the other hand, the Indianapolis Colts, while half of us were asleep, gave the Jacksonville Jaguars their first win of the season in London on Sunday. The problem isn't so much that the Colts are favored over the Bears, but by how many points they are favored.
Here's a look at what the last two weeks' lines tell us:
- The Lions were favored by three points on the road in Chicago, meaning that they were six points ahead of the Bears from a power-ranking standpoint, when you take home-field advantage into account.
- On a neutral field, with the crowd swinging toward the Jaguars, the Colts were 2.5-point favorites against Jacksonville.
- With Indianapolis holding a five-point line against the Bears this week, books are telling you that they would be favored over Chicago by two points on a neutral field.
- When you add those numbers up, that means that Detroit would be at least a 6.5-point favorite against the Jaguars at a neutral site.
If you agree with that from a power-ranking standpoint, then you co-sign the Lions, who just lost to the Bears, as nearly double-digit favorites at home over the Jaguars, who just beat the Colts. When you juxtapose that hypothetical line to this tangible one, something just doesn't add up.
There's just not a significant difference between the lower class of the NFL, which is where both of these teams stand right now. As long as this line is over 4.5, it'd be smart to make a move on the Bears, who for whatever reason don't lose their edge on the road.
The pick: Chicago +5
New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh
5 of 15
Opening line: Pittsburgh -7
Best home line: Pittsburgh -7
Best away line: New York Jets +7.5
According to Football Outsiders, the New York Jets have the 28th-ranked defense in the NFL four weeks into the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers have won three of their four games in total control by a combined score of 105-46, because of the efforts of receiver Antonio Brown.
The Steelers are winning games by blowouts. Brown is an unstoppable force meeting a paper tiger. On the flip side, the Jets defense has massively regressed from last season, both on the line of scrimmage and in the defensive backfield, while the injury to receiver Eric Decker only further digs quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick into a hole.
As long as you can find this line as a one-score game, you need to think about making a play toward Pittsburgh. This one is simple.
The pick: Pittsburgh -7
Houston vs. Minnesota
6 of 15
Opening line: Minnesota -6
Best home line: Minnesota -6
Best away line: Houston +7.5
Let's not overthink this. The Minnesota Vikings are 18-3 against the spread since the start of the 2015 regular season, per TeamRankings.com.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Vikings have the fourth-best pass defense in the NFL. Per the same site, the Houston Texans have the 31st-ranked pass offense in the league.
Hammer, meet nail.
The pick: Minnesota -6
New England vs. Cleveland
7 of 15
Opening line: Cleveland +10
Best home line: Cleveland +12
Best away line: New England -10
The Cleveland Browns are 12-point underdogs at home. Despite their 0-4 record, they held a 20-point lead over the Baltimore Ravens, took the Miami Dolphins into overtime and went into the fourth quarter up 20-17 against the Washington Redskins last week.
Yes, they are still the Browns, but they aren't a Cleveland team of the past that just gives up, even with third-string quarterback Cody Kessler, a third-round rookie, in the lineup. If this game were in New England, if you reverse the home-field advantage here, the Patriots would be 18-point favorites over that same Browns team.
No one in the NFL should be favored by 18 points, home or away. There is no talent disparity that large in the league. That favored team certainly shouldn't be favored by that many points when their quarterback hasn't thrown a live pass to any of his teammates in a month.
You can make money betting on Bill Belichick as an underdog. You might even make money on betting on Belichick as a favorite of less than a touchdown. No one is going to consistently hit at a high rate as double-digit favorites, especially on the road, especially with a quarterback just coming off a four-game suspension.
The pick: Cleveland +12
Philadelphia at Detroit
8 of 15
Opening line: Detroit +1
Best home line: Detroit +3.5
Best away line: Philadelphia -3
Sometimes the numbers just don't add up and you have to ask yourself why. For example, outside of one game, the Pittsburgh Steelers hadn't looked incredibly impressive heading into Week 4. At the same time, other than a first half against the San Diego Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs looked like a fairly dominant team.
When push came to shove on Sunday Night Football last week, the Steelers, who were valued over the Chiefs from a power-ranking standpoint, absolutely dunked on Kansas City. Not only did the team not avoid Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters, but it purposely targeted him with a multitude of concepts, attempting to embarrass that defense.
How did this happen? First, the Steelers offense is loaded. Second, Todd Haley.
Haley, Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator, was Kansas City's head coach from 2009 to 2011. It wouldn't be a stretch to think that he took the matchup personally, attempting to run up the score as the favorite.
But there's good news: We have the exact same replication this week. While he's not an offensive coach, Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was the Detroit Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.
Schwartz, like Haley, runs a force on his side of the ball, as the Eagles rank second in the league on defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. They are also the top team in the NFL per the same statistic.
If the mantra this week is "Do it for Coach Schwartz!" we want no part of falling on the other side of this line, even if they are on the road. A six-point swing for home-field advantage last week would still have had the Steelers winning a 23-point game against Haley's former franchise.
Don't forget, Schwartz was carried off the field as the defensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills during his first return to Detroit, and he's still going head-to-head with his former quarterback. Off a bye, Philadelphia should win this game outright.
The pick: Philadelphia -3
Atlanta vs. Denver
9 of 15
Opening line: Denver -6.5
Best home line: Denver -4.5
Best away line: Atlanta +6.5
Here's what the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos look like head-to-head based on Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings.
| Team | Overall | Off. | Pass Off. | Run Off. | Def. | Pass Def. | Run Def. |
| Atlanta | 8th | 1st | 3rd | 2nd | 31st | 30th | 29th |
| Denver | 4th | 9th | 10th | 19th | 5th | 3rd | 23rd |
Outside of pass defense, the 3-1 Falcons don't look too different from the 4-0 Broncos this season. Denver looks like a legitimate contender in the AFC, but it isn't quite as dominant as it was last season during its Super Bowl run.
With this line reaching as high as 6.5 points, the Broncos have to beat the most talented offense in the NFL by a touchdown or more to cover this line. Last year, even with its dominant defense, Denver was 1-5-1 against the spread as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.
That hit rate was the worst for a playoff team last season. Even at home, the Broncos like grind-it-out wins. This line is giving a popular public bet, an undefeated Super Bowl champion, too much of a benefit of the doubt.
The pick: Atlanta +6.5
Buffalo vs. Los Angeles
10 of 15
Opening line: Los Angeles -3
Best home line: Los Angeles -1
Best away line: Buffalo +3
In terms of point differential, the Los Angeles Rams are the biggest frauds in the NFL. Despite their 3-1 record, the Rams have a negative-13 point differential.
To put that into perspective, every team with a worse point differential than them has lost at least three games this season in the NFL. Teams with a worse point differential than the Rams are a combined 9-31.
On the flip side, the Buffalo Bills have a plus-19 point differential, the best in the league for a team without a winning record. The teams that have posted a better point differential than the Bills four weeks into the season are a combined 35-5.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Rams have played the 26th, 17th, 30th and 25th offenses in the league. The Bills, who rank 12th, are the best offense this defense-heavy Rams team has faced all season.
Los Angeles ranks 31st in the league offensively, per the advanced stats. This will be its first real test to see if its defense can hold up against an above-average offense.
Overall, the Rams rank 24th in the league in DVOA, while Buffalo is in the top 10, with its only blemishes coming in a five-day stretch to begin the season, which featured two one-score losses. This line claims these two teams are equal, but everything other than their records would claim that the Bills have the edge on a neutral field.
The pick: Buffalo +3
San Diego vs. Oakland
11 of 15
Opening line: Oakland -3.5
Best home line: Oakland -3.5
Best away line: San Diego +4
The San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders are tied for the third spot in the NFL in terms of touchdowns scores. Unfortunately, both have allowed over 100 points to their opponents heading into Week 5.
The Raiders are constantly involved in shootouts, while the Chargers tend to blow leads late in games, with their matchups between the Kansas City Chiefs, an AFC West rival, and the New Orleans Saints sticking out the most.
With cornerback Jason Verrett now joining San Diego's 16 players on injured reserve, expect the potential shootout chances to rise this particular week, as the Chargers try to piece together a functional defense.
In a shootout, especially between divisional rivals, you'd be smart to align yourself with the underdog, just simply because the last score so often wins and because home to cover, despite a loss, if the point spread is over three points.
This line has the Raiders as four-point favorites. In Jack Del Rio's 10 wins as the head coach of Oakland, the squad has won only four of those games by more than four points. His team typically wins sloppy shootouts, so we'll be expecting that.
Free Philip Rivers.
The pick: San Diego +4
Cincinnati vs. Dallas
12 of 15
Opening line: Dallas -1.5
Best home line: Dallas +1.5
Best away line: Cincinnati PK
There is a significant difference between Andy Dalton when he faces uncommon and common opponents. In this instance, the Dallas Cowboys are an uncommon opponent for the Bengals quarterback.
You can make the case that when Dalton is playing uncommon opponents, he's better than rookie passer Dak Prescott, who, while not turning over the ball, hasn't truly taken over a game through four weeks of the season. You can also make the case that A.J. Green is the best offensive skill player in the game, while the Bengals defense is also significantly better than the Cowboys' right now.
Also, much like West Coast stadiums, Dallas has become a vacation spot for visiting away fans, negating a bit of the home-field advantage in North Texas.
With some pick'em lines still up, it'd be smart to take the veteran squad with a better defense here. At some point, this young Cowboys team has to slip, and a month ago the Bengals were one of the hottest choices to make the AFC title game. These are the type of games they need to win to stay in the AFC North race with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The pick: Cincinnati PK
New York Giants vs. Green Bay
13 of 15
Opening line: Green Bay -7
Best home line: Green Bay -7
Best away line: New York Giants +7.5
There's way too much going on with this game.
The New York Giants are having a semimeltdown over Odell Beckham Jr. The Green Bay Packers just started getting Jordy Nelson looking like his Pro Bowl self again, which they haven't had since the 2014 regular season.
On top of that, this game is a prime-time home game, which, according to NFL Research, is a situation in which Aaron Rodgers has been a top-three quarterback since the merger. On top of that, Giants head coach Ben McAdoo was part of Mike McCarthy's staff in Green Bay from 2006 to 2013.
The arrow on the Giants is trending down. The arrow on the Packers is trending up.
This is a spot in which Rodgers typically wins. Let's book this one and pray that it doesn't come down to a backdoor cover, which are as rare in 2016 as they ever have been to start a season.
The pick: Green Bay -7
Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
14 of 15
Due to the uncertain status of Cam Newton's concussion, there aren't enough lines up of this Tampa Bay-Carolina game to make heads or tails of it. Until the Panthers name a starting quarterback, you might as well flip a coin.
Picks of the Week
15 of 15
1) New York Giants vs. Green Bay -7
2) Cincinnati PK vs. Dallas
3) Buffalo +3 vs. Los Angeles
4) Philadelphia -3 vs. Detroit
5) Tennessee vs. Miami -3
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