NFL Predictions Week 4: Top Underdog Picks, Vegas Odds and Score Predictions

Week 4 might be the best time of the 2016 NFL season to pick upsets.

Upsets were the main storyline of last week, as favorites like the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints took notable losses.

It should go without saying, but those who love underdogs had one heck of a week against the house.

Given some of the matchups and scenarios this week, it might be more of the same. Las Vegas will be more careful after getting burnt by the upsets last week, but bettors should welcome the challenge.  

Those who capitalize on upset potential will come out way ahead in the early part of the season.

NFL Week 4 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Miami at Cincinnati (TNF)	CIN -7	44.5	CIN 28-20
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	JAC -2.5	49.5	IND 23-20
Buffalo at New England	NE -4	n/a	BUF 21-20
Seattle at N.Y. Jets	SEA -3.5	40.5	NYJ 24-20
Detroit at Chicago	DET -2	46.5	DET 33-20
Carolina at Atlanta	CAR -3	46	CAR 28-24
Oakland at Baltimore	BAL -3.5	46.5	OAK 20-17
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -4.5	40.5	HOU 21-17
Cleveland at Washington	WAS -6.5	45.5	WAS 30-18
Denver at Tampa Bay	DEN -3.5	44.5	DEN 27-17
L.A. Rams at Arizona	ARI -8.5	43	ARI 23-14
New Orleans at San Diego	SD -4	52	SD 28-23
Dallas at San Francisco	E	44	DAL 20-14
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -4	47.5	PIT 27-20
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (MNF)	MIN -3.5	43.5	MIN 24-21

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Top Underdog Picks

Seattle (-3.5) at N.Y. Jets

The Seattle Seahawks seem to get the benefit of the doubt from the house in this matchup against the New York Jets for a few reasons.

For one, they're the Seahawks. They smacked around the San Francisco 49ers last week, 37-18. Meanwhile, the Jets got stomped in 24-3 fashion on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Still, others factors must play into the decision. For one, Seattle has looked terrible outside of beating up on a bad team. The 1-2 Miami Dolphins almost upended the Seahawks at home in a 12-10 game. Seattle followed with a 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

Even worse, quarterback Russell Wilson suffered an MCL sprain while cruising against the 49ers (though he will play this week).

For all the Jets' faults—like quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing six interceptions in the loss to Kansas City—the New York defense has held two opponents to 24 points or less.

Fitzpatrick won't have an easier time against the Seattle defense. But keep in mind the Seahawks have to hobble across the country for this encounter. In a battle of defenses, travel time plays a huge role. Bettors shouldn't bank on Wilson having enough on a hurt leg to steal a win.

Prediction: Jets 24-20

Buffalo at New England (-4)

Bettors who have been brave enough to roll with the New England Patriots despite the absence of Tom Brady under center have looked like geniuses through three weeks.

Go figure Bill Belichick can win with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett.

From the sounds of a note by ESPN's Ed Werder, the team could have both guys back for this week's encounter with the Buffalo Bills:

Though it might seem like it, this isn't a death knell for Buffalo's underdog chances.

These two familiar foes met twice last year while Brady was under center. Both matchups went to the Patriots, but only by eight and seven points, respectively. If any team can take advantage of New England without Brady, it's the Bills.

Buffalo has held two opponents to 18 points or less. Last week, the Bills shocked the Arizona Cardinals. Buffalo flustered Carson Palmer into four interceptions and surrendered only 88 rushing yards in the 33-18 victory, while Bills runners posted 208 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bills know how to combat Brady, so backups shouldn't be a problem. If LeSean McCoy and others can run well on the Arizona defense, they can do the same or better against the Patriots.

Experienced bettors know consistency is a major issue with Rex Ryan-led teams. But now is the time to roll the dice against the Patriots with the way these Bills have played as of late. A strong ground game and defense will have Buffalo headlining the upset realm.

Prediction: Bills 21-20

Oakland at Baltimore (-3.5)

The clash between the Oakland Raiders and Baltimore Ravens features two overlooked teams.

The Raiders sit at 2-1, winning a shootout against the New Orleans Saints (35-34) and a gritty defensive battle against the Tennessee Titans (17-10). The loss was a 35-28 stumble against the Atlanta Falcons, but it doesn't change the fact quarterback Derek Carr has five touchdowns to one interception while completing 66.9 percent of his passes.

Observers might find it surprising to discover the Ravens are undefeated. So it goes, though, when a seemingly rejuvenated defense doesn't allow more than 20 points to an opponent and quarterback Joe Flacco leads a cruise-control offense with weapons like Mike Wallace.

But there is a catch. Whereas the Raiders seem battle-tested, it is important to point out the Ravens have played Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville. It is possible the easy schedule has the Ravens looking better than they really are.

Cover 32's James Arcellana provided context:

How will Baltimore respond when the offense has to thwart Khalil Mack? What about the defense finally getting a test from Carr and receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree?

Those questions are worth asking, especially because the Ravens enter the matchup as the favorites. A favorite's first real test of a season isn't the time to stick with it.

If the Baltimore offense can't keep pace, bettors have an easy upset pick on their hands. Oakland has the better offense, and Baltimore's defensive showings seem to be more a product of the schedule than anything else. Expect Carr to have a big game while bringing the Ravens back into proper alignment.

Prediction: Raiders 20-17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

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