NFL Week 2: Projecting Winners and Losers of Weekend's Biggest Matchups
There are so many questions after Week 1 and so few definitive answers.
Can anyone cover Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown? Will the Washington Redskins stop being stubborn and treat their top cornerback like their top cornerback? And can the Los Angeles Rams offense figure out how to play professional football?
We don't begin to get answers to those broad and wide-ranging questions until much later in the season. But individual matchups can already tell us a fair bit about who will continue to rise and who was just flashing momentarily in Week 1.
For example, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans will have the difficulty level of his matchup raised in Week 2 when he lines up across from Arizona Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson. Will everyone's favorite breakout pick be able to continue what he started with a 45-yard catch against the Atlanta Falcons and 99 yards overall?
And can a gimpy Russell Wilson evade a Rams defensive front that had him doing little more than fleeing in 2015?
Just like every week, I'll dive into the juiciest matchups and predict who will wield the heaviest hammer.
Let's start with a matchup that will hopefully happen. But who knows?
Dez Bryant vs. Josh Norman
1 of 10
I've picked this matchup with the assumption it actually happens and the Washington Redskins change their stubborn ways.
Every defense has a game plan and a set blueprint for how 11 men will try to keep 11 other men from scoring. We all understand that, and when the offense reacts to said game plan, you can't immediately change. The plan was developed for a reason: The head coach and defensive coordinator believe it will work, and they're passionate about that conviction.
But at some point, an adjustment needs to be made, and the Redskins didn't do that in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They kept highly paid cornerback Josh Norman on one side of the field, and for most of the night, it wasn't the same side where Steelers stud wide receiver Antonio Brown stood.
The result was predictable: Brown torched Redskins cornerback Bashaud Breeland and finished with eight receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns.
If a team losses in a best-on-best scenario—with the other team's best players repeatedly beating yours—then it's time to shrug your shoulders, shake hands and move on to the next week. But that didn't happen against Brown, and it needs to against Dallas Cowboys wideout Dez Bryant.
The Cowboys' oversized pogo stick imitator scuffled through Week 1 with only one reception for eight yards. And in 2015, he was slowed by injuries and the complete cratering of his offense without quarterback Tony Romo. But let's not forget that Bryant is only one season removed from a 16-touchdown year.
He's a red-zone behemoth and generally massive human who needs to be countered by an equally physical presence. That's why Norman has to be standing opposite him for most of the afternoon Sunday.
The two last met in 2015, when Norman was with the Carolina Panthers. He held Bryant to only two receptions for 26 yards.
Prediction: Let's give the ever-so-slight edge to Norman, again assuming this matchup is actually a thing Sunday. He had two passes defensed during the only two times he lined up against Brown on Monday Night Football, according to Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus.
49ers Defensive Line vs. Jonathan Stewart
2 of 10
The San Francisco 49ers defensive front will likely be the shining beacon of hope on an otherwise mediocre team because of its youth and general ferociousness.
That was a not-so-bold statement many made prior to Week 1. But even with optimism around the unit bubbling, it was difficult to predict how well the 49ers defensive linemen and linebackers would fare during a tough matchup against Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley. The same Todd Gurley who torched the 49ers for 133 rushing yards in just his fourth NFL start as a rookie.
So of course the 49ers then held Gurley to a tiny average of 2.8 yards per carry and 47 yards overall during an easy win Monday night. But there's a distinct difference between Gurley and Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart: The latter is supported by an offense around him that's beyond competent.
The 49ers could stack the box and sell out to stop Gurley in Week 1. They knew Rams quarterback Case Keenum posed little threat in any way and focused their efforts solely on stuffing the offensive engine.
But that luxury won't be available against the Panthers. Stewart is another powerful downhill runner, and the veteran finished 2015 with the league's fifth-best per-game rushing average (76.1 yards). His strength and breakaway speed need to be respected along with the similar rushing skill set Panthers quarterback Cam Newton possesses.
Prediction: The 49ers defensive front showed the ability to shed blocks and close gaps against Gurley, holding his longest carry to only 10 yards. It can repeat that performance against Stewart. But this game could be whacked with the ugly stick when the 49ers try to stop the rest of Carolina's offensive weapons.
Geno Atkins vs. David DeCastro
3 of 10
Don't let this fact ever stop being amazing: Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle Geno Atkins shouldn't be able to do what he does nearly every week at his size.
Atkins is 6'1" and 300 pounds, which is massive by normal human standards. For a defensive tackle, though, he's undersized, especially when you consider the girth of the guards Atkins is assigned to overpower.
For example, look at his Week 2 divisional clash against Pittsburgh Steelers Pro Bowl guard David DeCastro. He's four inches taller than Atkins and 16 pounds heavier.
But for Atkins, that can often be an advantage. He uses his lower center of gravity to gain leverage and then thrust forward, which frequently sends blockers staggering back into the quarterback.
DeCastro knows the feeling well. In 2015, the Bengals and Steelers squared off three times, including the playoffs. Over those games, Atkins recorded two sacks and 19 total pressures, per PFF.
Atkins is his nemesis, as he is for so many other interior blockers.
Prediction: Siding with Atkins is wise in pretty much every matchup, including this one. The 28-year-old finished Week 1 with a sack and two defensive stops.
Spencer Ware vs. Texans Front Seven
4 of 10
Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware won't make his injured backfield teammate Jamaal Charles a memory quite yet. But he's done more than enough to give us all temporary amnesia.
The third-year back slashed, sprinted and weaved his way toward 199 total yards in Week 1 during a comeback win over the San Diego Chargers. Ware has now averaged 6.8 yards per touch over his last three games dating back to 2015 and including the playoffs.
At 5'10 and 229 pounds, he has compact power that blends well with his ability to cut abruptly, which should make for an intriguing matchup against the Houston Texans in Week 2 and their swarming front seven.
Yes, the Texans are now playing without linebacker Brian Cushing for likely the next six weeks because of his torn MCL, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. But that's a familiar and almost annual loss, as Cushing has played only one full 16-game season over the past four years.
Losing him still stings, but the other core elements of a Texans defense that ranked 10th against the run in 2015 are waiting for Ware (99.8 yards allowed per game).
Prediction: Ware is a skilled pass-catcher out of the backfield, and that's where he can gain the advantage here. The Texans may have mostly pummeled opposing runners on the ground while giving up only 4.1 yards per carry in 2015. But they allowed an average of 40.9 receiving yards per game to running backs, according to Football Outsiders.
Rams Defensive Front vs. a Possibly Gimpy Russell Wilson
5 of 10
It's difficult to gauge exactly what version of the Los Angeles Rams defense we'll get and how this matchup will play out.
The Rams defense was thrashed by Blaine Gabbert, of all people. The San Francisco 49ers quarterback is mobile enough, but he's not exactly known for his wheels in the same way that Seattle Seahawks pivot Russell Wilson has been for the past four seasons. Yet Gabbert darted and juked his way to 43 rushing yards against the Rams in Week 1 after averaging 23.1 yards on the ground per game in 2015.
But there's a very real chance that was a strange, one-week blip from the Rams, and specifically their defensive front. It's the same unit that sacked Wilson 10 times in 2015 over two games, which led to two Seattle losses.
And now Wilson is dealing with an injury of some significance for the first time in his career. He'll play, but likely with limited mobility. We've seen what happens when this Rams defense tees off on a healthy Wilson and the feeble Seahawks offensive line. So a hobbled Wilson could be in for a long afternoon.
Prediction: The Rams get the nod here. Their offense was simply putrid in Week 1. But they're still imposing defensively, especially against a less than healthy quarterback.
Patrick Peterson vs. Mike Evans
6 of 10
This is the most compelling wide receiver-cornerback matchup of Week 2 that doesn't involve Josh Norman and Dez Bryant. Again, we're assuming the Redskins make that matchup happen and don't outsmart themselves.
Throughout the offseason, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans was pegged as the best breakout candidate at his position by pretty much everyone with a keyboard. The widespread assumption was that Evans would finally explode to reach another tier if he could cut his drops down even a little bit while growing alongside quarterback Jameis Winston.
So far, through one week, he's been the deep-play threat we all expected. Evans caught five passes for 99 yards in Week 1, which gave him a whopping average of 19.8 yards per reception.
But now he's set to face a shutdown corner who doesn't give up many yards or catches.
Arizona Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson had the league's best passer rating in coverage during the 2015 season, per Pro Football Focus. His rating finished at 59.9, and Peterson also gave up the second-fewest yards among the 79 cornerbacks who played at least 50 percent of their team's snaps (334 yards).
Being lined up across from Peterson can often give receivers the feeling that they're caged. And few are able to find the key to get out.
Prediction: Let's give this one to Peterson. Including the playoffs, there were only two games in 2015 when he allowed 50-plus yards in coverage, per PFF.
Chris Harris vs. T.Y. Hilton
7 of 10
It seems Week 2 will give us a heaping helping of popcorn-worthy wide receiver-cornerback matchups, and we can look to the defending champs for another one.
A year ago at this time, headlines prior to a game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts would have been dominated by wistful Peyton Manning nostalgia. But now, with the large and legendary shadow removed from the equation, we can focus on the more intricate nuts and bolts offered by the matchup.
That brings us to Broncos cornerback Chris Harris and the time he'll spend across from Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton.
Hilton does a lot of things very, very well, and they all involve neck-wrenching speed. He especially excels in two areas. He's able to haul in underneath throws and then promptly turn on his afterburners to gain plenty of chunk yardage after the catch. Or he can just blow by whoever attempts to match his vertical speed.
The problem for him Sunday is that Harris defends well in both of those areas.
Harris allowed a passer rating in coverage of only 58.3 during a season-opening win over the Carolina Panthers, according to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus. He also gave up just two touchdown receptions in 2015, along with a modest 209 yards after the catch.
Prediction: Harris is one of the league's most underrated cornerbacks. But he's struggled with Hilton despite overall recent success, and that will likely continue. In 2015, Hilton finished with five catches for 82 yards against the Broncos, which included a 30-yard reception.
Ezekiel Ansah vs. Taylor Lewan
8 of 10
You know what Ezekiel Ansah can do? The right answer is pretty much everything.
The Detroit Lions defensive end finished third in sacks (14.5) during the 2015 regular season. He's also a fine run defender and recorded a stop on 6.2 percent of his run snaps, per PFF.
His pass-rushing effectiveness could quickly bring embarrassment to Taylor Lewan's life Sunday. The Tennessee Titans tackle has struggled with penalties into now his third NFL season. He took two more during a Week 1 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Titans head coach Mike Mularkey called Lewan the most penalized guy he's had on the left side, via Terry McCormick of Titan Insider.
But when he's not clutching and grabbing too much, Lewan has proved to be an effective blindside protector. He allowed the seventh-fewest pressures (23) out of all tackles in 2015 who played at least half of their teams' snaps, per PFF.
That is encouraging news for Lewan both generally and in the short term as he prepares for a tough matchup against Ansah. The opposite of encouraging is that when he allowed pressure in 2015, it was the worst kind of pressure. Lewan gave up eight sacks, which ranked tied for third-worst among that same group of tackles.
Prediction: Again, broadly, Lewan will be fine, and he's shown the ability to anchor a young Titans offensive line that will grow together as a unit. But Ansah presents a severely slanted mismatch, and the Lions defensive end should win it easily.
Greg Olsen vs. 49ers Linebackers and Safeties
9 of 10
Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen plays like he's a bounding beer fridge. He's large at 6'5" and 255 pounds and can store plenty of items in his ample midsection.
He can both truck you over and shimmy to get open up the seam. That skill set has placed him in the top tier of NFL tight ends for many years and led to his two straight seasons with 1,000-plus receiving yards.
So he presents an imposing physical challenge for any defense. A past version of the San Francisco 49ers defense just might have had one of the few units up to the challenge. But that may no longer be the case, especially with middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman.
Overall, the 49ers allowed an average of 47.0 receiving yards per game to tight ends in 2015, according to Football Outsiders, which was mediocre at best. And Bowman, who will spend a good chunk of his afternoon hovering around Olsen on short-to-intermediate routes, often struggled in coverage. He allowed the third-most yards in coverage among all inside linebackers in 2015, per PFF.
But Bowman has been one of the best cover linebackers in the past, and he'll be supported by two hard-hitting safeties in Eric Reid and Antoine Bethea.
Prediction: You'll probably feel immense physical pain while watching Olsen square off with Bowman, Reid and Bethea. You'll also experience great joy if you have Olsen on your fantasy team.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Marcus Peters
10 of 10
Let's end with yet another wide receiver-cornerback matchup sure to max out your football pleasure senses.
Houston Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins is often a human spider, as he reels in footballs that have no business being caught. In the past, that skill was essential because he had a group of misaligned catapults throwing him those balls. But now the Texans have, at minimum, some competency at quarterback after giving Brock Osweiler the equivalent of a small island's GDP in free agency. Hopkins finished third in 2015 with 1,521 receiving yards, and now he's set to explode when paired with Osweiler.
But Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters is arguably (or not at all arguably?) the league's best young cornerback. And he's one of the few second-year corners who stand any chance against Hopkins.
In his rookie season, Peters led the league in passes defensed (34), and he finished tied for the lead in interceptions (eight). He's a physical corner who can match Hopkins' length with plenty of size on his side too (Peters is 6'0" and weighs 197 lbs). He can locate and leap to swat away balls at the highest point of their descent back down to Earth, which is where Peters will often meet Hopkins' outstretched hands.
Physically, it's hard to get a more even matchup. That's also true from a pure skill perspective.
Prediction: This will be one of the weekend's most exciting matchups to watch, as two young stars continue to rise. It may be a matchup in which no one truly wins and each player still makes a handful of plays. But I'll take Hopkins by a hair, only because he's had the upper hand so far. Over two games against the Chiefs in 2015, Hopkins finished with 167 receiving yards on 15 catches.
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