Why the Sam Bradford Trade Spells Doom for the Minnesota Vikings

On Sept. 3, NFL fans woke up to learn that Sam Bradford, the Philadelphia Eagles top quarterback all training camp, was traded to the Minnesota Vikings.

Rarely do we see teams exchange starting quarterbacks. Rarely do we see major NFL trades. To see a trade for a starting quarterback as 53-man rosters were being announced was absolutely shocking.

The impetus for this trade was Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings' starting passer, succumbing to injury after Minnesota's Week 3 preseason game. According to ESPN.com's Ben Goessling, Bridgewater both dislocated his knee and tore his ACL, which will end his year.

With Bradford on the roster, the Vikings presumably have a better chance at repeating as NFC North champions than if they rolled out with Shaun Hill for 16 games. Hill, Bridgewater's backup in 2015, has only thrown seven passes in his second stint with the franchise.

The question now is: Can Bradford save Minnesota's playoff chances, and is he worth the 2017 first-round pick and 2018 fourth-round pick he was moved for? According to Tom Pelissero of USA Today, that 2018 selection can even become a second-round pick, but only if Bradford plays 80 percent or more of the Vikings' snaps during a title run.

If Minnesota is able to win a Super Bowl under Bradford, the cost of the draft selections won't matter, but right now, those odds are low. According to Odds Shark, there are still opportunities to land the Vikings to win it all at +2450 odds, which is less than 4 percent win probability.

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Per Odds Shark, Minnesota's chances to win the NFC North can be as found as low as +228, about a 30 percent chance to repeat, which is 8 percent lower than the site's documented opening line. So even online gambling sites, which make money off emotional bettors, are telling Vikings fans that after spending long-term draft assets on a short-term quarterback, the team's title chances are slim.

Even If Bridgewater's knee injury is just a one-year issue, he will once take the reins of the offense for a team with one fewer top pick at a controlled price point.

Rookie contracts provide cheap, locked-in contracts for young, talented players, which is why top draft picks—like the first-round pick the Vikings paid for Bradford—are valuable. Not to mention the Vikings get Bradford for less than a true full season, because he isn't ready to play under a new playbook right away—or at least at a high level.

There are only a couple comparable trades to this one (starting quarterbacks for first-round pick) in recent history: Jay Cutler form Denver to Chicago in 2009 and Carson Palmer from Cincinnati to Oakland in 2011.

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Both struggled on their new teams. Cutler's 2009 76.8 passer rating was the second-worst in his NFL career. Palmer's 60.7 completion percentage and 80.5 passer rating were near career lows.

Quarterback is far from a plug-and-play position. It's one reason why top picks at the position fail so often, with names like Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and Tim Tebow falling under the "first-round bust" label since Bradford was selected first overall in the 2010 class.

The strongest case for Bradford surviving with little time to learn offensive coordinator Norv Turner's playbook is the presence of tight ends coach Pat Shurmur. He was Bradford's offensive coordinator as a rookie in Saint Louis in 2010 and last year in Philadelphia. He sold the Vikings front office on Bradford, per Mark Craig of the Star Tribune.

The problem is that Shurmur hasn't had the best track record with passers between 2002 and 2015. Other than Bradford and Donovan McNabb, who was already a two-time Pro Bowler when Shurmur started coaching him, the other starting passers on his resume are A.J. Feeley, Koy Detmer, Mike McMahon, Jeff Garcia, Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Keith Null, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Weeden, Thaddeus Lewis, Nick Foles, Michael Vick and Mark Sanchez.

And Bradford's numbers under Shurmer are not impressive. In 2010, he posted 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 2015, he had 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He has largely been the same player at both ends of his NFL career. By those numbers, the Vikings traded for a bottom-third starting passer.

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Bradford apologists say he has never been surrounded by talent, which may be true, but it's hard to imagine how the Vikings can fix that over the next two years (the duration of Bradford's contract).

According to Pro Football Focus, the team's starting offensive tackles, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith, finished 109th and 68th in the league in pass protection in the preseason. T.J. Clemmings, who might be competing for the right tackle job with Smith, ranked 180th.

Here's a look at the Vikings receiving corp:

• Stefon Diggs: a second-year Day 3 wideout.
• Charles Johnson: a receiver who had nine catches in 11 games and four starts last year.
• Cordarrelle Patterson: a former first-round pick who had two receptions in 2015.
• Laquon Treadwell: a 2016 first-round pick who didn't start in Week 3 of the preseason and only caught two live balls this summer.
• Adam Thielen: a former undrafted free agent from Minnesota State who has 20 receptions in two seasons.
• Jarius Wright: a wideout with third- and fourth-target production who has never started even half a season.

If a supporting cast is all Bradford needs, he's not getting it this year.

It's fair to wonder if Bradford can even stay healthy as Bridgewater's replacement.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Bradford has had three season-ending injuries (an AC joint in 2009, and ACL tears in 2013 and 2014). He also sustained a high ankle sprain in 2011 and a concussion and shoulder issue in 2015. His history and that offensive line are a bad match. According to Sports Injury Predictor, Bradford's injury risk is a medium rank—the same as Bridgewater's moving forward.

Then there's the money. Per Spotrac, the Vikings need to decide on Bradford by the fifth day of the league year, when his roster bonus locks in. That will be around mid-March, which gives Minnesota about six months into Bridgewater's recovery to decide on their future quarterback.

But ACLs take longer than that to heal. Adrian Peterson's quick ACL turnaround was more than seven months, according to the Star Tribune. How on Earth will Minnesota be in a position to judge at that point? With that shaky timeline, the Vikings may be forced to pay Bradford millions of dollars as an insurance policy, even if he struggles in 2016.

Instead of using that money on receivers or offensive linemen to protect a quarterback, or a first-round pick, they will instead be using it on a safety-net passer.

Minnesota has set itself up for quarterback purgatory. Bradford hasn't played at a high level for an entire season since 2008, when he was at Oklahoma, the same year when J.T. O'Sullivan, Brodie Croyle and Trent Edwards opened the NFL season as Week 1 starters.

Since March 9, 2015, Bradford has been on three different rosters. In 2016, the Rams and Eagles, Bradford's former franchises, mortgaged their way up to the first two picks of the draft to take college passers, as their turns with Bradford didn't pan out.

Matt Marton/Associated Press

Bradford's trail through the NFL is littered with regret, other than possibly in Philadelphia, as the Eagles somehow managed to trade for Bradford with a second-round pick, just to turn around and convince the Vikings he was worth a first-rounder. Bradford, who has never made a Pro Bowl, including in possibly the worst quarterback crop ever, somehow gained value after playing in a system that turned Foles into a Pro Bowler. That's an asset mismanagement masterpiece.

The Vikings largely won the NFC North last season due to their running game and defense, and this year's version of the squad should have the same mentality. The only difference between 2015 and 2016 on paper, other than a rushed quarterback, is that they will be playing a first-place schedule in the NFC, instead of a third-place schedule.

The big swing on Bradford suggests Minnesota thinks it's close to a Super Bowl, which is mind-boggling. Without a star quarterback, you can make the playoffs, but you can't win a title, unless you somehow sell your soul to the devil like Peyton Manning in 2015. Everything surrounding Bradford's Vikings suggests either a non-playoff season or an early postseason exit, which makes this move inefficient in the long run.

The Vikings will never get those picks back, barring some Eagles-like trickery.

The sky isn't falling in Minnesota. It has already fallen.