Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 12 Futures Report
Barring injuries or suspensions, by this point in the season, teams in the NFL know what they have in terms of personnel and tend to stick with what and who are working. I’d suggest you take a similar approach to setting your lineups as we enter the final weeks of the fantasy football regular season.
Assess who is working on your roster. Obviously, you aren’t swapping someone like David Johnson out, but maybe you don’t realize how good a player like Jamison Crowder has been for more than a month. He clearly belongs in your lineup over a bust like DeAndre Hopkins.
The last spot or two in your starting lineup may be up for grabs on a weekly basis, but unless you’ve been hit hard by the injury bug, you should have a good idea of who’s locked into the majority of spots in your starting lineup.
This is not the time to get cute. Your season is on the line.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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On Tuesday, I gave you the best options from the waiver wire, but with the news and updated injury information we’ve received since, here are some useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Dorial Green-Beckham, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—5.2, Yahoo—4.0
Is the door open for Green-Beckham to play a bigger role for the Eagles? Yes, and Nelson Agholor left it wide open with his performance against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11. It’s been a trying year for Agholor, but an illegal formation penalty and bad drop was enough to land him on the bench last week.
According to Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com, after the game Agholor said, “I’m trying so hard to think about being perfect, and when miscues are there, they were exposed—and I let it just eat at me.”
Green-Beckham caught five of eight targets for 54 yards and a touchdown against Seattle. He played 79 percent of the snaps, his second-highest percentage of the season. If Green-Beckham ends up with more of Agholor’s snaps and targets, he’ll have a chance to take advantage of the mess that is the Green Bay Packers on Monday night.
Bilal Powell, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN—42.0, Yahoo—42.0
Typically, Powell takes a backseat to Matt Forte in the New York Jets backfield, so it’s hard to ever use him with a lot of confidence. Take a look at him in this week’s matchup with the New England Patriots.
Over the last four weeks (three games), the Patriots allowed opposing running backs to rack up 21 receptions on 23 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown. In eight of 10 games, they gave up at least six receptions to running backs. In six games, they allowed at least 50 receiving yards to running backs, including each of their last four matchups. The Patriots rank fifth in most fantasy points allowed to running backs in the last four weeks.
Powell played at least 42 percent of the snaps in the team’s last three games, including 53 percent in Week 10 against the Los Angeles Rams. In that game, he had four carries for 37 yards and a season-high seven receptions on seven targets for 52 yards and a touchdown. Forte may lead the way, but the Jets could use Powell to exploit New England’s issues versus running backs in the passing game.
Malcolm Mitchell, NE
Percent Owned: ESPN – 2.4, Yahoo – 2.0
Admittedly, Mitchell’s fantasy status totally depends on the health of Rob Gronkowski (lung) and Chris Long (back), both of whom have been limited in practice this week and aren’t locks to play against the New York Jets on Sunday.
Mitchell has to be under consideration as a deep reach this week if both are out since he was so productive without them in last week’s win over the San Francisco 49ers. He played 86 percent of the snaps and caught four of five targets for 98 yards including a 56-yard touchdown.
According to Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com, when Tom Brady was asked about Mitchell during his interview on WEEI’s Kirk & Callahan, he said, “He’s very smart. I can’t say enough good things about him and what he’s accomplished and getting his opportunity and taking advantage of it.”
When Brady is praising a player after a big performance, it adds credibility and kills the notion of Mitchell’s production being a one-off fluke. Keep an eye on the statuses of Gronkowski and Hogan because you might be able to take a shot on Mitchell if they’re inactive once again.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Dak Prescott, DAL
With the threat of Tony Romo no longer a topic of discussion, now the focus shifts to Prescott leading the Dallas Cowboys to the top seed in the NFC. After winning their 10th-straight game in Week 12, the Cowboys sit at 10-1 with the Seattle Seahawks in the No.2 spot at 7-2-1 heading into a matchup with the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay.
Prescott had little trouble putting up 301 passing yards three passing touchdowns and 16 rushing yards against a strong Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 11. He followed that up with just 195 passing yards and one passing touchdown on 17-of-24 passing to go along with 39 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in Thursday's win over the Washington Redskins.
You couldn’t ask for a much better situation for a rookie quarterback, but that doesn’t mean you should undersell the job Prescott has done this season. The Cowboys don’t have to hide him as a passer and he’s been able to put up strong fantasy numbers as a result.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Carson Wentz, PHI
Hopefully, you went into last week’s game against the Seattle Seahawks with low expectations for Wentz. His trip to Seattle was an ugly loss that saw him complete 23 of 45 passes for 218 yards with a pair of touchdowns and two interceptions. If Wentz had performed well in such a tough environment, it would have be a surprise. He didn’t play well and didn’t get much help from his receiving corps.
At 5-5, the Eagles are in the basement of the NFC East, which isn’t anything to be ashamed of and they’re still in the hunt for a playoff spot. As I’ve discussed this week, Wentz is worth a look as a streamer because the Green Bay Packers look lost on defense after getting torched by Marcus Mariota and Kirk Cousins in back-to-back weeks.
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
Before their Week 10 bye, the Broncos got 258 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 25-of-40 passing from Siemian in a tight win over the New Orleans Saints. Even with the win, the Broncos likely went into their bye trying to figure out how they can get better, and Siemian should be included in that conversation.
Over the last five games, Siemian hit on 60 percent of his passes just one time. He’s had to throw at least 37 passes in four of those five games, which isn’t ideal in this offense, but it may have something to do with their inability to run the ball with consistency. Denver’s running backs haven’t totaled at least 100 rushing yards since Week 7.
The Broncos need to get better to make sure they stay in the playoff hunt. Stability from Siemian would go a long way.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff’s long-awaited debut finally took place in his Week 11 start at home against the Miami Dolphins. The rookie completed 17 of 31 attempts for 134 yards (4.32 yards per attempt) and added 11 rushing yards on four rushes. When asked about more opportunities, Goff told Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times that the team has “a good chance to push the ball a little bit.” It’s not a bad matchup in New Orleans against the Saints.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
Garoppolo is just a backup to Tom Brady and won’t play any meaningful snaps for the rest of the season barring an injury.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Good performances in reality don’t always translate to fantasy production. Ajayi is averaging 4.5 yards per carry over the last two weeks, but failed to rush for 80 yards in either game and didn’t score. He totaled four receptions for eight yards during those two games, so there’s not much there to boost his value.
He should quiet any concerns about his shaky fantasy performances of the last two weeks with a perfect matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12. Considering they’ve allowed the most fantasy points to running backs over the last four weeks, it would be a disappointment if Ajayi doesn’t come through with at least 100 rushing yards.
Devontae Booker, DEN
In the Week 10 matchup with the New Orleans Saints before the bye, Booker carried the ball 24 times (season high), but wound up with only 76 yards and added a pair of receptions for 12 yards on two targets. Booker easily outsnapped Kapri Bibbs with 71 percent of the snaps compared to 22 percent for Bibbs. Booker shouldn’t feel threatened by Bibbs.
Booker is still a concern for fantasy owners because he’s been performing as more of an RB3 than a low RB1 or high RB2, which is where he should be as the lead back without C.J. Anderson in the backfield. When you assess your personal depth chart, figure out where Booker fits in because you may have a lineup decision to make on him.
Rob Kelley, WAS
The hot streak for Kelley ended on Thanksgiving in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Kelley ran for 87, 97 and 137 yards in three games since taking over the lead role in Washington’s backfield. After carrying at least 21 times in each of those games, he carried just 14 times for 37 yards and added a pair of receptions for five yards. While not an easy matchup, Kelley still fell well short of expectations.
Kelley’s small sample size as the starter shows the team believes he’s their guy in the backfield, but between their matchup against the Cowboys in Week 12 and a road game in Arizona with the Cardinals in Week 13, there will be some bumps in the road for the rookie running back.
Jordan Howard, CHI
In Week 11, Howard fell one yard short of his fifth game of at least 100 total yards in a loss to the New York Giants. He carried 17 times for 77 yards and caught one of eight targets for 22 yards. He was the clear leader with 73 percent of the snaps, which was significantly ahead of Jeremy Langford at 27 percent.
The Bears injury woes continued in Week 11 when Jay Cutler hurt his shoulder, which could keep him out for this week’s game with the Tennessee Titans. Howard should be the focus of the offensive game plan no matter who is playing quarterback, so the volume should be there, although big fantasy production may not.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Wendell Smallwood, PHI
The Philadelphia Eagles could be turning to Smallwood for a bigger role this week after Ryan Mathews (knee) and Darren Sproles (rib) were both injured in Week 11. Mathews hasn’t practiced this week and is likely out, while Sproles is expected to play through his injury. With Mathews and Sproles hurt last week, Smallwood rushed for 48 yards on 13 carries and chipped in four receptions for 31 yards on five targets.
The Eagles have lacked a consistent rushing attack for almost the entire season, so expectations shouldn’t be very high for Smallwood, even if he does play a bigger role. On the season, he’s rushed 57 times for 253 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and a touchdown. Smallwood could have a big opportunity on Monday night against the Green Bay Packers.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Dixon still hasn’t separated himself from Terrance West, but he’s moving in the right direction. Over the last three games, his snaps rose from 29 percent in Week 9 to 32 percent in Week 10 and then 38 percent in Week 11. Meanwhile, West remained steady at 41-42 percent during the same span.
In those three games, Dixon has 21 carries for 91 yards (4.3 yards per attempt) and seven receptions for 42 yards on 10 targets. West caught three of his seven targets for 29 yards and ran 44 times for 128 yards (2.9 yards per carry) and a touchdown. With such a clear difference on the ground, you’d think the Ravens would start to feature Dixon more, but that’s no guarantee. If you have him, he’s a RB3/flex until further notice.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Ty Montgomery, GB
Montgomery may be the most talented player in Green Bay’s backfield, yet he’s lost significant touches and snaps to James Starks in the last two weeks. Starks outsnapped Montgomery 71-28 percent in Week 10 and 49-41 percent in Week 11. In those two games, Starks has 58 yards on 16 rushes (3.6 YPC) while Montgomery has seven carries for 26 yards (3.71 YPC).
The reason Starks has any fantasy value is due to his role as a receiver. He’s turned 10 targets into eight receptions for 57 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks. Montgomery has five receptions for 38 yards on six targets.
As you can see, Starks isn’t putting up monster numbers or shown any real improvement over Montgomery as the leader in the backfield, yet he’s done enough to crush Montgomery’s fantasy value. Maybe the Packers will come back around to Montgomery before the end of their miserable season.
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
The randomness of Oakland’s backfield struck again in Week 11. After crushing the Broncos with 114 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries in Week 9, Latavius Murray dropped back down to 12 carries for 33 yards and added five receptions for 59 yards on five targets in a loss to the Houston Texans in Week 11. Richard carried three times for two yards and turned three targets into three receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. Washington had one carry and one target.
While Murray has led the Raiders backfield in snaps for every game he played this season, he has just one game of at least 100 rushing yards and doesn’t have another game with more than 60. Washington and Richard aren’t involved consistently enough to put in your lineup, but they do enough to make Murray a real pain to deal with each week.
Paul Perkins, NYG
With Rashad Jennings coming back to life in the last two weeks, an excitement about Perkins as a stash-and-hope player has disappeared. Perkins has 13 carries for 47 yards and two receptions for 19 yards on two targets in the last two games. With the New York Giants riding a five-game win streak, they will stick with what works and that means featuring Jennings in a big role with Perkins as nothing more than a backup.
Dwayne Washington, DET
The Detroit Lions keep trying to get Washington going and it’s not working. He carried five times for 19 yards in the Thanksgiving loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Since coming back from injury, he carried 28 times for 51 yards and has two receptions for 15 yards on two targets. He’d need an injury to Theo Riddick to have a bigger role.
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
Artis-Payne has been a healthy scratch in the last five games for the Carolina Panthers, and that likely won’t change unless Jonathan Stewart goes down again and Artis-Payne is needed to pick up the slack.
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Drake has just two carries for 11 yards and one reception for six yards in the last five games. Like Artis-Payne, he’d need an injury in front of him to Jay Ajayi or Damien Williams to be somewhat regular contributor to the offense.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Michael Thomas, NO
Thomas was solid, but not spectacular in a good matchup with the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. He caught all five of his targets for 58 yards. Five Saints, including Thomas, had at least five targets, which made it difficult for anyone to dominate the stat sheet.
Even after a couple of quiet games, Thomas still leads the team with 56 receptions for 681 yards and five touchdowns on 74 targets. Only Brandon Cooks has more targets (75). Thomas should be considered a solid WR2 going forward.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
As I talked about in the intro, Crowder has turned into a player you have to roll with every week regardless of matchup or what’s going on around him in Washington. With eight receptions for 88 yards on 10 targets against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12, Crowder now has at least 16 fantasy points in PPR formats in four of his last five games. He has at least 13 fantasy points in PPR formats in the last six games.
Crowder has the team lead in yards (725) and touchdowns (6) and isn’t far behind Jordan Reed in targets (81-76) or receptions (59-55). With Kirk Cousins playing at a high level, Crowder should be in your lineup with confidence.
Tyrell Williams, SD
In San Diego’s last game before their Week 11 bye, Williams had five receptions for 125 yards and a score on 11 targets against the Miami Dolphins.
Over the last six games, he racked up three 100-yard performances and three touchdowns. After 11 weeks, Williams leads the Chargers wide receivers in every receiving category. With Travis Benjamin (knee) returning to action this week, it shouldn’t hurt Williams much in terms of targets, as he’s clearly the top WR with or without Benjamin on the field.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Tyler Boyd, CIN
The Cincinnati Bengals will need Boyd to play a bigger role for at least this week and likely longer after A.J. Green strained his hamstring in Week 11. In addition to Green’s injury, the Bengals lost Giovani Bernard to a torn ACL, meaning they have to make up for the target leaders at both wide receiver and running back.
With Green out after just two snaps last week, Boyd had one of his better games of the season for fantasy with six receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Other than Brandon LaFell and Tyler Eifert, the Bengals are woefully short on reliable receivers, so there’s a big opportunity for Boyd to fill some of the void left by Green until he comes back, whenever that happens this season.
Eli Rogers, PIT
Rogers followed up solid fantasy performances in Weeks 9-10 (10 receptions, 145 yards, one touchdown, 15 targets) with just six receptions for 56 yards on eight targets in his last two games. Ben Roethlisberger needed just 20 attempts in the Thanksgiving night win over the Indianapolis Colts, which is part of the reason Rogers had just two receptions for 36 yards on two targets. Rogers is still worth rostering, but he’s not a lock to be in your lineup.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
After scoring his first career touchdown in Week 10, Sharpe found the end zone for a second time in a Week 11 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He posted four receptions for 68 yards with the score. That gives him at least 58 yards in four of his last five games. While both Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews have turned into must-start players, Sharpe should earn some lineup consideration this week against the lowly Chicago Bears.
DeVante Parker, MIA
While the Miami Dolphins offense has been carried by Jay Ajayi for most of the last month, Parker has emerged with a couple of strong fantasy performances in the last two weeks. He grabbed five of eight targets for 103 yards in the win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 10 and followed that up with eight receptions for 79 yards on 10 targets and a trip to the end zone in last week’s win over the Los Angeles Rams.
I’m trying to temper my enthusiasm for Parker since Ryan Tannehill is averaging less than 30 attempts per game for the season, but seeing signs of life from arguably the team’s most physically gifted receiver is something to be excited about heading into a favorable matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Corey Coleman, CLE
In three games since returning from injury, Coleman’s failed to post more than three receptions or 41 yards in a game. He saw 12 targets in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers but had just four receptions for 39 yards.
With Josh McCown under center for at least this week, it’s probably Coleman’s best chance for fantasy production, although he needs to prove himself before you can play him with any confidence. That could totally disappear if Robert Griffin takes over at quarterback.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Cameron Meredith, CHI
In the last four games, Meredith has just seven receptions on 10 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown. After losing Brian Hoyer (arm) for the year, the Bears could also be without Jay Cutler (shoulder) for at least this week and possibly longer, leaving Matt Barkley as the likely starter. Any hint of fantasy value Meredith had would disappear with Barkley, so look elsewhere for fantasy production.
Will Fuller, HOU
With just one reception for 17 yards in Week 11, Fuller now has zero or one catch in four of the team’s last six games. Other than C.J. Fiedorowicz, the Houston Texans don’t have a lot to be excited about in their receiving corps. That’s obviously a huge indictment of DeAndre Hopkins’ season, but it shows you just how bad Brock Osweiler’s been for most of the season.
Sammie Coates, PIT
After flashing earlier in the season, Coates faded away and became obsolete for fantasy. He doesn’t have a catch in five of his last six games including goose eggs in the last four weeks. With two broken fingers, he doesn’t have reliable hands, so he’s not getting many chances. Unless he heals soon, he won’t give you much more this season.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Perriman was blanked across the board in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys. He didn’t receive a target in that loss and hasn’t had more than three catches in any game this season. His role isn’t big enough to consider for your fantasy roster.
Devin Funchess, CAR
As he’s done in the other two games following a week in which he scored a touchdown, Funchess was a disappointment in Week 11 with two receptions for 32 yards on seven targets against the New Orleans Saints. He has just two games with at least three receptions and two games with more than 40 yards receiving. Keep ignoring him for fantasy.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
As discussed in the late-week waiver wire section for Dorial Green-Beckham, Agholor’s struggles are starting to catch up to him mentally, and it may cost him more playing time. He was blanked on just three targets last week in Seattle. Bust might be the right word to describe Agholor.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
With Stefon Diggs out in Week 12, Treadwell played a season-high 59 percent of the snaps, but he didn’t have a target. He has just one catch for 15 yards on one target this season. He has no fantasy value in 2016.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
None of note.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Hunter Henry, SD
Henry sat out Week 9 with a knee injury, but returned in Week 10 to catch both of his targets for 11 yards and a score. The knee issue may explain why he was on the field for a season-low 34 percent of the snaps.
Antonio Gates is clearly the leader for both the team and fantasy at tight end, but with a week to rest, we’ll see if Henry can get back into the mix with a bigger role against the Houston Texans.
Austin Hooper, ATL
In the Week 10 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles before the bye, Hooper had just one catch on three targets for eight yards. Hooper may be the top tight end in Atlanta, but don’t expect much out of him this week with a tough battle against the Arizona Cardinals.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Clive Walford, OAK
With just two receptions for 28 yards on four targets in Week 11, Walford now has seven straight games with fewer than five targets, fewer than four receptions, fewer than 35 yards and no touchdowns. He can’t carve out a role in one of the better passing offenses in the league.
Jesse James, PIT
James didn’t bring in the only target he had in Week 12 and had just one catch for five yards on four targets in Week 11. Meanwhile, Ladarius Green caught two of three targets for 67 yards in Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts. James has no fantasy value.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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