Fantasy Football Week 5: Matt Camp's Week 5 Preview
With four weeks of the 2016 NFL season in the books, we have a good sample size to assess where everything stands.
By this point, you know which defensive matchups to worry about (Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos) and which ones you can exploit (New Orleans Saints, Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions). You should also have an idea of which teams are typically reliable for optimal fantasy output, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons, and which teams might have a single fantasy player of note, such as the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.
As the season goes on, I tend to make judgments based on the last four or five weeks of games (depending on byes), since it’s a better snapshot of how players and teams are doing and what direction they’re trending in at that time. You shouldn’t put too much weight on a performance from Week 1 to make a decision in Week 10.
By taking stock of your own fantasy football roster every month or so, you can adjust your lineup accordingly to use the best possible players and identify areas of weakness you may need to address for the short term or long term. That could be the difference between sticking with a quarterback or knowing you’ll be streaming on a weekly basis. Having that information allows you to prioritize the position to attack on the waiver wire.
Quarterbacks
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Waiver Wire
Carson Wentz, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—34, Yahoo—37
Before the team’s Week 4 bye, Wentz played his best game yet against the Steelers, completing 23 of 31 attempts for 301 yards and a pair of touchdowns. For the season, Wentz has 769 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions.
When asked about Wentz’s film study, head coach Doug Pederson said his QB is "Peyton Manning-ish," per Jimmy Kempski of the PhillyVoice. You can’t get much higher praise than that. Wentz looks in complete control of the offense and isn’t afraid to stay in the pocket and take a hit if it means making a completion down the field.
With tight end Zach Ertz cleared to come back from his rib injury, per NFL.com's Mark E. Ortega, the Eagles will be back to full strength in their receiving corps with attractive matchups against the Lions and Washington Redskins in the next two weeks. Get on that Wentz Wagon.
Week 5 Projection: 260-270 yards, 2 touchdowns
Brian Hoyer, CHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—3.9, Yahoo—5
Hoyer is yet another example of how well streaming QBs can work if you can jump on the right matchup in the right situation. While it may not have gone exactly to plan, Hoyer came through as a good streaming option in Week 4 against the Lions with 302 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last two games, Hoyer threw for 619 yards and four TDs.
Assuming Jay Cutler (thumb) has to sit again, you have to take a look at Hoyer to keep it up against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5. They’ve allowed at least 320 passing yards in two of four games and looked lost against Blake Bortles and the Jaguars in Week 4, giving up nearly 26 fantasy points. Hoyer’s made a clear connection with wide receiver Eddie Royal and tight end Zach Miller, and running back Jordan Howard is a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Week 5 Projection: 260-270 yards, 2 touchdowns
Derek Anderson, CAR
Percent Owned: ESPN—0, Yahoo—0
In Week 4, the Falcons beat up the Panthers both on the scoreboard and on the field. Cam Newton suffered a concussion in the loss, and according to head coach Ron Rivera, the QB's status for Week 5 (Monday night) is still unknown, per Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer.
Carolina will turn to Anderson if Newton can’t go, as it did in Week 4. Anderson nearly led the Panthers to a comeback, completing 17 of 23 pass attempts for 172 yards with a pair of TDs and a pair of interceptions, including a pick-six to end the comeback attempt.
Anderson is one of the best backups in the league and should get streaming consideration if Newton is out because of a great matchup at home with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Through four weeks, the Buccaneers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs.
Week 5 Projection: 255-265 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
The Matchup Men
As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players whose matchups help or hurt him. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.
Matchup Bumps
Cam Newton/Derek Anderson, CAR (vs. TB)
Carson Wentz, PHI (at DET)
Philip Rivers, SD (at OAK)
Derek Carr, OAK (vs. SD)
Eli Manning, NYG (at GB)
Tom Brady, NE (at CLE)
Matchup Concerns
Matt Ryan, ATL (at DEN)
Matthew Stafford, DET (vs. PHI)
Sam Bradford, MIN (vs. HOU)
Ryan Tannehill, MIA (vs. TEN)
Running Backs
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Waiver Wire
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—20.8, Yahoo—12
It’s time to get serious about Dixon. He’s been out since tearing his MCL on August 27, and his timetable for return was four weeks since he didn’t need surgery, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. That also kept Dixon off the physically unable to perform list to open the season. If he'd gone on the PUP, he'd have been out for a minimum of six weeks.
He returned to practice last week and didn't play Week 4 against the Raiders, which wasn’t a surprise. The Ravens made Justin Forsett a healthy scratch and let Terrance West lead the way. He took advantage of that opportunity with 113 rushing yards and a TD on 21 carries. That gives the Ravens some breathing room for Dixon, as they can work him into the mix slowly.
Still, he’s the most talented back they have, and it may not be long before he takes over the starting job from West. Remember, West was averaging just 3.6 yards per carry coming into Week 4, so one good game shouldn’t erase his bad start.
Week 5 Projection: To be determined based on status
Terrance West, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—45, Yahoo—29
When the Ravens decided to make veteran Justin Forsett a healthy scratch for Week 4, they gave West the starting nod after he played behind Forsett for the first three weeks. West came into the game with 33 carries for 119 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and four receptions for 29 yards on six targets.
He made the Ravens look smart by posting the aforementioned stats and taking advantage of the matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the league. So he gets credit for that, but it shouldn’t drastically change the perception of him as an average back.
Playing like he did, though, gives the Ravens a chance to work Kenneth Dixon in slowly this week, especially with a great matchup against the Redskins. Washington has given up the second-most fantasy points to RBs in the first four weeks. Consider West to be a short-term solution to any problems you have in your lineup, since it won’t be long before Dixon is ready for a bigger role.
Week 5 Projection: 17 carries, 75 yards, 1 touchdown
Bilal Powell, NYJ
Percent Owned: ESPN—36.2, Yahoo—23
Concerns about Matt Forte’s heavy usage in the early part of the season look like they are warranted, which means Powell’s role could become a lot more important to the Jets and possibly your fantasy team. Over the first two weeks, Forte racked up 52 carries (3.77 yards per carry) and seven receptions (10 targets). Powell had five carries and three receptions (six targets) over the same span.
In the last two games, Forte has 29 carries (3.2 YPC) and four receptions (seven targets), while Powell jumped eight carries and 12 receptions on 15 targets. Forte’s snap percentage peaked at 78 percent in Week 2 only to drop to 59 percent in Week 3 and 48 percent in Week 4. Powell played 41 percent in Week 3 and out-snapped Forte at 52 percent in Week 4.
A report from SNY’s Ralph Vacchiano that said Forte was going to the X-ray room on a cart after the Week 4 loss to the Seahawks fueled speculation about an injury. According to Daniel Popper of the New York Daily News, head coach Todd Bowles indicated he wasn’t aware of any X-rays. That means I'll monitor Forte’s practice status to see if there’s any fire to go with that smoke.
No matter what Forte’s status is, it’s clear the Jets need to keep Powell in the mix to keep Forte fresh enough to be useful all season. If you have Forte, you must have Powell, since he’s one of the best and clearest handcuffs in the league.
If you don’t have Forte but could use some RB help, Powell isn’t a bad addition, since the Jets have such a commitment to the run—as they should with the poor play of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Week 5 Projection: 6 carries, 28 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 25 receiving yards
Darren Sproles, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—54.6, Yahoo—47
Through the first three games, Sproles leads the Eagles backfield with 98 out of 214 possible snaps. Ryan Mathews is the next running back with 66 snaps. While you can attribute some of that to Matthews’ ankle problems from Week 3, it’s clear the Eagles have a plan for Sproles and are executing it with success.
Sproles led a committee in Week 3. He carried just two times for negative-one yard but was the leading receiver with six receptions on six targets for 128 yards, including a 73-yard TD from Carson Wentz. According to Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer, head coach Doug Pederson said before the bye that Mathews will remain the starter when healthy, but the team will continue to have a rotation.
It still makes sense to grab Sproles. He’s the only consistent receiving threat in the backfield and a reliable option for Wentz. His status doesn’t change much based Mathews' health, since he’s a unique player in the Philadelphia backfield.
Week 5 Projection: 4 carries, 16 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 38 receiving yards
Wendell Smallwood, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—10, Yahoo—12
If you’re reaching deep for a RB, consider Smallwood as a possible long-term investment with the chance of some additional short-term gain. That's because the Eagles are expected to remain in a backfield rotation with Ryan Mathews leading the way. An ankle injury in Week 3 opened the door wide for Smallwood, and he led the team with 17 carries for 79 yards and a TD.
The bye week should help Mathews heal, but knowing that he’s missed at least three games in all but two of his previous six seasons should give you a reason to be skeptical about his coming back this week and remaining healthy for the rest of the year. Even without Mathews, Smallwood would have to battle Darren Sproles and Kenjon Barner for touches, but the rookie looks like the favorite to get the most carries.
If he has the chance to lead the way again in Week 5, Smallwood could be a decent contributor against the Lions. They’ve given up 409 rushing yards on 81 carries to RBs in the first month of the season.
Week 5 Projection: To be determined based on Ryan Mathews’ status
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
C.J. Anderson, DEN (vs. ATL)
David Johnson, ARI (at SF)
Darren Sproles, PHI (at DET)
Melvin Gordon, SD (at OAK)
DeMarco Murray, TEN (at MIA)
Jordan Howard, CHI (at IND)
LeGarrette Blount, NE (at CLE)
Terrance West, BAL (vs. WAS)
Matchup Concerns
Jerick McKinnon, MIN (vs. HOU)
Carlos Hyde, SF (vs. ARI)
Wide Receivers
3 of 7
Waiver Wire
Robert Woods, BUF
Percent Owned: ESPN—10.3, Yahoo—7
With Sammy Watkins (foot) on injured reserve, the Bills are thin in their receiving corps. That puts Woods in the spotlight as their top option until further notice. While he’s not nearly as talented as Watkins, he’s reliable enough to absorb more targets. That’s what happened in the last two weeks.
Woods posted seven receptions for 89 yards on 10 targets in Week 4 against the New England Patriots after catching six of eight targets for 51 yards in Week 3. The next-best options in the passing game are RB LeSean McCoy and TE Charles Clay, both of whom have 19 targets apiece in 2016. Adding Woods gives you a wide receiver who should be busy for the rest of the season, although he won’t have an easy go of it against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Week 5 Projection: 6 receptions, 69 yards
Eddie Royal, CHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—9, Yahoo—13
Every year, Royal seems to pop up as a useful fantasy option on the waiver wire. We’re at that point again thanks to his seven receptions for 111 yards and a TD on seven targets in Week 4. Royal is third on the Bears in targets behind Kevin White (36) and Alshon Jeffery (25).
However, Jeffery played through knee and hamstring injuries. White injured his ankle in Week 4, which leaves his status up in the air for Week 5. Royal should remain active in this offense out of necessity. He’ll get a crack at a beatable Colts defense that doesn’t have the luxury of a bye after its Week 4 game in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Week 5 Projection: 5 receptions, 62 yards
Sammie Coates, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN—11.6, Yahoo—17
The Steelers have been hunting for a reliable option behind Antonio Brown, and through four weeks, Coates has been the best of the group. He had arguably his best game in Week 4 with six catches on eight targets for 79 yards, including a 47-yard reception.
He played just 54 percent of the snaps in Week 4, but that was second to Brown and 20 percent ahead of Markus Wheaton. With Eli Rogers battling turf toe, the door is open for Coates to lock down the No. 2 role behind Brown, which means Coates could have consistent fantasy value. He’ll try to build on his Week 4 performance in a decent matchup with the Jets on Sunday.
Week 5 Projection: 5 receptions, 73 yards
Dontrelle Inman, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN—.7, Yahoo—2
You shouldn't add Inman with a lot of confidence, but he makes the list this week because of what he did in Week 4 and because of a good matchup with the Raiders in Week 5.
Coming into Week 4, Inman was off the fantasy radar with just five receptions for 45 yards despite leading all Chargers receivers in snaps. With a great matchup against the Saints, Inman outplayed both Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams by catching seven of 11 targets for 120 yards, including a 57-yard TD. Benjamin and Williams combined for nine receptions and 88 yards on 15 targets.
It’s hard to believe in Inman for fantasy because he was so quiet before taking advantage of a terrible Saints defense in Week 4. If you’re taking a shot on him this week, you’re hoping he strikes gold against a Raiders defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points to WRs in the first month of the season.
Week 5 Projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Travis Benjamin, SD (at OAK)
Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (vs. TB)
Odell Beckham Jr./Sterling Shepard, NYG (at GB)
Steve Smith Sr./Mike Wallace, BAL (vs. WAS)
Jordan Matthews, PHI (at DET)
Jordy Nelson, GB (vs. NYG)
Matchup Concerns
Julio Jones, ATL (at DEN)
Stefon Diggs, MIN (vs. HOU)
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (at MIN)
Tight Ends
4 of 7
Waiver Wire
Hunter Henry, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN—32.5, Yahoo—31
If you stuck by Henry for a second week, he rewarded you with another strong fantasy performance in Week 4. With Antonio Gates (hamstring) out once again, Henry caught four of seven targets for 61 yards and a TD. In two games without Gates, Henry has nine receptions for 133 yards and a TD on 12 targets. In his first two games, the veteran Gates had six receptions for 35 yards and a TD on nine targets.
It’s not easy to move on from an all-time great such as Gates. But the Chargers are on their way to doing so with Henry, and the results have made the move that much easier. Considering Gates hasn’t come close to playing in the last two games, Henry should be in line for another start on Sunday in Oakland. The Raiders allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends over the first month of the season.
Week 5 Projection: 6 receptions, 71 yards
Cameron Brate, TB
Percent Owned: ESPN—9, Yahoo—10
The Buccaneers shouldn’t have any regrets about parting ways with Austin Seferian-Jenkins thanks to the way Brate has played all season—especially the last two weeks. After getting the Rams for five receptions, 46 yards and two TDs (10 targets) in Week 3, Brate was one of the lone bright spots in the Week 4 loss with five receptions for 67 yards on eight targets against the Broncos.
Brate is making an impact at a time when WR Vincent Jackson hasn’t had more than four receptions or 44 yards in a single game. Mike Evans is a target monster (50), but he’ll always draw the most attention from defenses. Brate has a good chance to keep it rolling when he faces the Panthers on Monday night. Their disappearing act on defense makes them the fourth-worst defense against fantasy TEs this year.
Week 5 Projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Zach Ertz, PHI (at DET)
Tyler Eifert, CIN (at DAL)
Rob Gronkowski, NE (at CLE)
Cameron Brate, TB (at CAR)
Hunter Henry, SD (at OAK)
Clive Walford, OAK (vs. SD)
Jesse James, PIT (vs. NYJ)
Matchup Concerns
Eric Ebron, DET (vs. PHI)
Defenses
5 of 7
Waiver Wire
This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Percent Owned: ESPN—26.3, Yahoo—56
Jump on the Steelers this week with confidence because they are facing a quarterback and an offense who are likely lacking confidence coming into Week 5. This week, Pittsburgh hosts the Jets, who are fresh off two ugly losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks in their last two games.
During that time, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw nine interceptions. No team has given up more fantasy points to defenses than the Jets. Fitzpatrick’s been sacked six times and has 10 interceptions on the season. The Jets have also given up three defensive TDs.
While the Steelers have been better in reality compared to fantasy, this is still a good week to plug-and-play them with confidence.
Week 5 Projection: 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 18-20 points allowed
Miami Dolphins
Percent Owned: ESPN—10, Yahoo—12
Much like the Steelers, the Dolphins have another defense that hasn’t performed well for fantasy but still deserves consideration in Week 5 based on its favorable matchup. That’s because Miami faces the visiting Titans on Sunday. Other than the fantasy machine known as RB DeMarco Murray, the Titans offense doesn’t pose much of a threat.
Marcus Mariota was sacked seven times and threw five interceptions over the first four weeks. The Titans allowed two defensive scores and one on special teams. They don’t have any dangerous threats in their passing game, and Mariota’s top option is TE Delanie Walker, who isn’t even playing at 100 percent thanks to a hamstring injury.
You might not be too excited to use the Dolphins, but this one is strictly about the matchup.
Week 5 Projection: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 15-18 points allowed
Kickers
6 of 7
Waiver Wire
During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecast will be featured in this section.
Mike Nugent, CIN
Percent Owned: ESPN—7.4, Yahoo—12
Nugent comes into Week 5 as one of the best kickers of the young season. He's tied with Washington's Dustin Hopkins (12-of-12) for first with 12 field goals on 13 attempts, which is important to his fantasy value, since he has just six extra points.
The Bengals have a mediocre matchup with the Cowboys on Sunday, so there’s no concern about a lack of opportunities for Nugent. Despite his great start, you should be able to snatch him off the waiver wire.
Caleb Sturgis, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—1.4, Yahoo—2
Sturgis comes off his bye week having made seven of his eight field-goal attempts and nine of 10 extra points. With the 3-0 Eagles off to a great start, Sturgis has been busy enough to be considered one of the best kicking options in the young season, and he has a great chance to keep it up this weekend in Detroit.
The Lions haven’t gotten much out of their defense this season. As long as Carson Wentz and the offense pick up where they left off in Week 3, Sturgis should be active. Get him in your lineups this week.
Camp's Corner
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Last week, I talked about the right and wrong ways to stash.
Kenneth Dixon was an example of someone you want to stash because he has a chance to make an impact rather quickly. As we learned, he returned to practice and has a chance to make his debut this week. Stashing him for a couple of weeks could turn out to be a worthwhile maneuver and a proper use of your bench.
Keeping someone such as Jeremy Langford around doesn’t make sense. Before he went down, Langford averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and caught five passes in his first three appearances. Meanwhile, Jordan Howard nearly equaled Langford’s 116 rushing yards on the season in one game with 111 yards on 23 carries (4.8 YPC) in Week 4.
At best, Langford returns to a committee in a month. Why would you waste a spot on him?
The middle ground of stashing lies with Dion Lewis. We know he can’t see his first game action until Week 7 at the earliest because he opened the season on the PUP list. The Patriots are notoriously stingy when it comes to giving out injury news, so the right time to stash Lewis is a bit of a mystery. Some have already started to do so, but it’s at least a week too early. He won’t necessarily be ready for game action by Week 7.
Make sure you’re using all your roster spots wisely. Invest in players who have a chance to be difference-makers such as Dixon and potentially Lewis. Stay away from easily replaceable parts such as Langford.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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