Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 4 Futures Report
We’re three weeks (and one game) into the NFL season. By this time, you’ve taken a long look at your fantasy football rosters to decide what needs to be done to get out of an early hole or what needs to be done to fortify an already strong squad.
I’m here to help.
Last week, I spotlighted six players who needed to come through in Week 3. Surprisingly, almost all of them did well. We’ll revisit those names to decide how their fantasy values have changed in a week. Are they worth keeping? Should you make a trade? Or is it time to move on altogether?
Speaking of trades, now that the assessment period has been conducted, you should have a good idea of how to value players. Who should you sell high? Who should you buy low? You’ll get suggestions for both.
Rookies and second-year players have been making a big impact over the first three weeks. I’ll explain who should be regular starting options, who you should look to in a pinch and who isn’t ready to contribute just yet.
It’s all about planning for both short-term and long-term success. When done correctly, you can have both.
Did They Get It Together?
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Let’s check back in on the six players with something to prove last week and decide what plan of action you should take for each.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, WAS
Cousins got all the likes in Week 3 after completing 21 of 35 pass attempts for 296 yards and a pair of long touchdowns. He hit DeSean Jackson for a 44-yard score and Jamison Crowder for a 55-yard TD. It was arguably his toughest test to date and he came through with strong numbers good enough to finish No. 9 at QB for the week.
Verdict: Not an every-week starter, but definitely worth using in the right matchup, like this week at home against the Browns.
Running Back
Todd Gurley, LA
Gurley’s slow start looked like it might continue in another rough matchup when the Rams traveled to Tampa to face the Buccaneers. If you’re going by yards per carry, the Bucs limited Gurley to just 3.1 yards per carry. However, that was actually an improvement over his first two games. He had 85 yards on 27 carries and found the end zone twice.
His best game of the season made Gurley the No. 13 RB in PPR formats last week. It boosted him to No. 25 at the position for the season. That's still far from where a first-round pick should be, but at least he’s going in the right direction.
Verdict: Hang tight with Gurley. The Rams have a good enough defense to keep them in games and therefore keep Gurley in the mix with plenty of carries. If you’re deep at RB, trading him after a good game isn’t a terrible idea.
Jeremy Hill, CIN
Hill eased the frustrated thoughts of fantasy players with 17 carries for 97 yards and two TDs in Week 3 against the Broncos. He looked like a strong start in Week 4, but didn’t come through on Thursday Night Football. He wound up with just 71 yards on 21 carries and didn’t have a reception for the third time in four games.
Verdict: Consider Hill an RB2, as he’s the No. 22 RB in PPR formats. He’ll almost always be in the mix to score and should lead the Bengals in carries in most weeks. Hopefully, he gets more opportunities in the passing game.
Wide Receiver
Sammy Watkins, BUF
Watkins missed Week 3 with ongoing foot problems and looks like he’s heading in a similar direction for Week 4. According to Mike Rodak of ESPN.com, head coach Rex Ryan said Watkins is unlikely to practice Friday, but the team is “hopeful” he travels to New England for Sunday’s game, although his status is up in the air.
Shutting down Watkins until he gets fully healthy might be the wise thing to do, but Ryan is clearly on the hot seat and probably doesn’t want to resort to such a drastic move, even if it would put Watkins in better shape for the future. This is a horrible situation with no indication of it getting better anytime soon.
Verdict: If Watkins can bring you anything back in a trade based on his name value, make the deal. At his current value, Watkins is a risky start on a bad team. He’s probably a headache you want to get away from if possible.
John Brown, ARI
After combining for two receptions and 22 yards on seven targets in the first two games, Brown showed some signs of fantasy life in Week 3. In a loss to the Bills, Brown was targeted 11 times and hauled in six receptions for 70 yards. Still, he played just 54 percent of the snaps, which was well behind Larry Fitzgerald (92 percent) and Michael Floyd (85 percent).
The Cardinals aren’t clicking on all cylinders early in the season and that’s only adding to the frustration with Brown. They won’t have an easy matchup with the Rams this weekend.
Verdict: Keep Brown around for depth or as the last player in your starting lineup. His snap count is a concern and the offense hasn’t gotten into a rhythm.
Tight End
Coby Fleener, NO
If you cut Fleener before Week 3, it was likely out of supreme frustration for a player who’s made a career out of frustrating his fantasy owners, fans, coaches and basically anyone connected to his NFL career. If you let him go, watching his performance in Week 3 was probably maddening.
Fleener snapped out of his funk to catch seven of 11 targets for 109 yards and a TD in a loss to the Falcons. According to ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett, QB Drew Brees said he and Fleener are “still growing” and that “the trust factor and the confidence level just continues to go up.”
Verdict: One game doesn’t change the perception of Fleener as untrustworthy for fantasy. There’s a handful of consistently reliable fantasy TEs and he’s not in that group. You can consider him in the mix to start for you in any week, but until he strings together weeks of solid performances, don’t let expectations get too high.
Reading the Trades
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Buy Low
Eddie Lacy, RB, GB
Lacy is coming off a 17-carry, 103-yard performance against the Lions in Week 3. Unfortunately, he was held out of the end zone for the third straight game and has just two receptions for 19 yards on five targets for the season. Even though he’s averaging five yards per carry, it hasn’t meant much for his fantasy bottom line with just 43 carries.
The good news is that, in reality, he’s playing well, unlike this time last year. The bad news is that his solid start hasn’t translated to fantasy success, which has to be driving Lacy owners nuts. Take advantage of their impatience with Lacy and go after him. He might be the No. 37 RB in a PPR, but that should improve after the bye. After facing the Giants in Week 5, he’ll see the Cowboys, Bears, Falcons and Colts.
Sell High
LeGarrette Blount, RB, NE
No RB has carried it more (75 carries), gained more yards (298) or scored more than Blount (4) through the first three weeks. That makes him the No. 10 RB in PPR formats even though he doesn’t have a target. Blount has never been better or more active in his career this early in the season, which is exactly why you should look to move him at a high value.
Blount’s been so busy because the Patriots are playing without Tom Brady. They’re 31st in pass attempts and 26th in passing yards. New England will certainly ramp up their passing attack when Brady returns, and Blount’s volume will suffer as a result. I’m not saying he won’t be busy when they have the lead, but he won’t be the focal point of the offense like he is now.
Latavius Murray, RB, OAK
Through three games, Murray is the No. 14 RB in PPR formats, which is probably a pleasant surprise to anyone who drafted him. But is he doing it with smoke and mirrors, or is he a legit star leaving his opponents in the dust? I’m leaning toward the former.
Murray played 60 percent of the snaps in Week 1, yet hasn’t hit 50 percent in the last two games. Meanwhile, DeAndre Washington’s snaps have jumped from 11 percent in Week 1 to 27 percent in Week 3. Jalen Richard went from 13 percent in the opener to 20 percent last week.
Efficiency has been important to Murray. He has just 32 carries on the season, hasn’t run for 60 yards in any game and has dipped below 75 total yards twice. That’s why his three TDs are so important to his fantasy value. And it’s not like he’s been busy in the red zone (three carries) or inside the 5-yard line (two carries). Murray has been too TD-reliant to keep up this production on a consistent basis, so sell now.
Tevin Coleman, RB, ATL
Even though I expected Coleman to play a big role from the start of the season, I didn’t peg him as a top-five PPR RB through three weeks. He’s gotten there with four rushing TDs, three of which came on Monday Night Football against the Saints. He’s also been busy as a receiver with 10 receptions for 167 yards on 11 targets. So that’s all the good news, but what’s the problem?
Coleman has rushed 32 times for 110 yards (3.4 yards per carry), which is a far cry from Devonta Freeman’s 42 rushes for 265 yards (6.3 yards per carry). Coleman’s been out-snapped by Freeman in each game and the gap is getting wider. Freeman’s percentage of snaps over the first three games is 53-53-59 while Coleman is at 47-44-42.
Let me be clear, Coleman is a good player and should remain an active and important part of the Falcons offense. However, his value is overinflated by TDs. Both he and Freeman have 10 red-zone carries, so Freeman will end up stealing some of those TDs away in the future. Freeman’s fantasy numbers are more sustainable, whereas Coleman’s will likely drop since he’s been so reliant on scoring.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Carson Wentz, PHI
The domino effect of Teddy Bridgewater’s gruesome knee injury has led the Eagles to a 3-0 record at the bye with Wentz at the helm. If you expected Wentz to be nothing more than a game manager, I hope you’re happy to be wrong. He’s averaging 34 pass attempts per game and has completed nearly 65 percent of those attempts.
Last week was a big test against the Steelers, and he aced it. He finished the week as the No. 7 QB thanks to 301 yards and two touchdowns on 23-of-31 passing in a dominant victory. He’s the No. 10 fantasy QB on the season and has gone from potential streamer to legit starting option. Expect him to stay hot with games against the Lions and Redskins coming out of the bye.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
The wait for Lynch’s first start could be a while. In a tough Week 3 matchup at Cincinnati, Siemian carved up the Bengals defense for 312 yards and four touchdowns on 23-of-35 passing. That made him the top QB of the week and the No. 13 QB on the season.
Siemian’s been able to take advantage of his great weapons, wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, with lots of success. He should be considered a good streamer against the Buccaneers in Tampa on Sunday.
Dak Prescott, DAL
Prescott’s legs are starting to carry him to big fantasy value. Last week, he was the No. 6 fantasy QB with four carries for 36 yards and a TD in addition to 248 yards and a TD on 19-of-24 passing. Unfortunately, he could be without Dez Bryant for multiple weeks after the superstar WR suffered a hairline fracture in his knee.
Prescott has streaming value this week in San Francisco, but he takes on the Bengals and Packers before their Week 7 bye. He’ll come out of that bye for a huge game with the Eagles at AT&T Stadium.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
The Patriots didn’t need Garoppolo to beat the Texans last week, but he has a chance to return from his shoulder injury for Week 4 in what will be his last planned start of the season. He’s been limited in practice this week and probably won’t be asked to do much since LeGarrette Blount has done such a great job carrying the offense.
We learned that Garoppolo is a capable backup who can cover the team for the short term. Getting Brady back is a boost to the fantasy value of every Patriot other than Blount, since he won’t be a weekly focal point of the offense.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff remains the primary backup to Case Keenum, and the Rams have won their last two after getting embarrassed in the opener by the 49ers. Unless there’s a major shift, Goff isn’t coming off the sidelines.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jordan Howard, CHI
Well, the door is wide-open for Howard. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Bears won’t have Jeremy Langford for the next four-to-six weeks and Ka’Deem Carey is battling a hamstring injury. The Bears added former Lion RB Joique Bell as some insurance for Howard, but it looks like he’ll get a heavy workload against the Lions in Week 4.
Howard was called into a bigger role when Langford went down last week and wound up with nine carries for 45 yards and four receptions for 47 yards on six targets. He told Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com, “I felt pretty good getting a lot of playing time and getting a lot of work” and that he feels “comfortable.”
Dwayne Washington, DET
Neither Washington nor Theo Riddick had much success on the ground last week, but evidence as to who should be the lead runner points in Washington’s direction. He carried 10 times for 38 yards compared to 10 carries for nine yards for Riddick, although Riddick was more productive as a receiver with seven receptions for 39 yards on nine targets. Washington had a single catch for negative-three yards.
Washington should be in for a bigger role this week, and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said he’s “building confidence” among coaches because of how he carries himself, per Kyle Meinke of MLive. Washington should eclipse the 10-carry mark from Week 3, especially if the Lions have control over the Bears in the second half and want to run out the clock.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
Even though Artis-Payne was the starter in Week 3, he trailed Fozzy Whittaker in snaps, 39 percent to 44 percent. He outgained Whittaker on the ground with 47 yards on 12 carries compared to Whittaker’s 22 carries on five attempts. Whittaker separated himself as a receiver with five receptions for 34 yards on six targets. Artis-Payne caught his only target for 11 yards.
This committee gets a better matchup with the Falcons this weekend, but because it is a committee, you’re reaching to play either guy as anything more than a flex option.
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
Washington and Richard aren’t doing enough to have starting fantasy value, but they're doing enough to worry those who have Latavius Murray. In Week 3, Washington’s snaps rose again from 19 percent to 27 percent, and he carried six times for 57 yards with a reception on his only target for five yards. Richard played 20 percent of the snaps and carried six times for 28 yards and added a reception for 13 yards.
The Raiders recognize the depth they have in their backfield and aren’t letting it go to waste. Even though Washington’s fantasy value comes as a handcuff to Murray, it’s fair to wonder if his role could increase if he plays better and/or Murray takes a step back.
Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake, MIA
We have an ugly committee in Miami. Over the last two games, no Dolphins RB has carried more than nine times in a single outing. Last week, Drake led the way with nine carries for 37 yards. Ajayi led the way in Week 4 with six carries for 33 yards despite Damian Williams getting the call to start. Williams had nine yards on two carries and a reception for six yards.
Snap counts haven’t been pretty, either. Drake led the way with 39 percent last week and Ajayi overtook him to lead with 31 percent on Thursday night. This ugly backfield is basically useless for fantasy under the current committee.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Those who stashed Dixon got some good news this week when Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported he’s targeting a Week 5 return from the torn MCL he suffered toward the end of August. Through three weeks, Baltimore’s leading rusher is Terrance West with 119 yards on 33 carries, so the door is definitely open for Dixon to take over this backfield rather quickly.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Even though he’s way behind C.J. Anderson as the backup, we’ve seen enough positive signs from Booker to feel good about him if Anderson were to go down with an injury. Booker’s snaps have been on the rise every week and topped out at 23 percent in Week 3. He has 62 yards on 16 carries and a pair of receptions for 22 yards.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Crowder has quickly emerged as a favorite target for Kirk Cousins, and in Washington’s pass-happy offense that means he’s been busy. Last week, Crowder grabbed four of seven targets for 78 yards, including a 55-yard TD in a win over the Giants. He’s tied for the team lead in targets (25) with Jordan Reed and leads the receivers with a pair of TDs.
Oddly enough, Crowder’s snaps have dropped in each game from 75 percent in Week 1 down to 58 percent in Week 3, although it hasn’t mattered much to his bottom line. In fact, the more improvement he shows, the more snaps he should earn, especially with Josh Doctson not on the field thanks to an Achilles injury. You should find a way to get Crowder into your lineup with a great matchup against the Browns on Sunday.
Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller came back to earth in Week 3 after opening his career with a pair of 100-yard performances. The Texans looked lost against the Patriots in their third game and Fuller managed just three receptions for 31 yards on seven targets. Hopefully, it was just a bump in the road for the rookie, as he’s still the top passing option in Houston behind DeAndre Hopkins.
He and the Texans will try to get back on track this weekend when they host the Titans. Tennessee has been average against fantasy WRs this season, so the matchup shouldn’t be a concern for Fuller.
Michael Thomas, NO
With Willie Snead out of the lineup in Week 3, Thomas ended up coming through in a big way for those who needed to plug him into the lineup on Monday night. The rookie snagged seven of 11 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. He has a team-high 17 receptions for 185 yards on 22 targets.
Snead isn’t a lock to play in Week 4 against the Chargers, but Thomas may have done enough to stay in the mix along with Brandin Cooks and Snead, although with Coby Fleener also looking good against the Falcons, it’s a lot of mouths to feed. This receiving corps could end up being a bit frustrating, although Thomas deserves credit for living up to the preseason hype.
DeVante Parker, MIA
It looked like Parker was turning into a reliable weekly fantasy starter at no worse than a WR3 spot in your lineup following two strong performances in Week 2 (8 receptions, 106 yards, 13 targets) and Week 3 (3 receptions, 51 yards, 1 TD, 6 targets). However, he and the Dolphins struggled mightily against the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. He wound up with just a pair of catches for 20 yards on three targets.
Miami’s offensive line allowed Ryan Tannehill to take five sacks, although he was certainly part of the problem. Too much of Miami’s offense has come when trailing, and that garbage-time production can be tough to rely on, so you have to be careful not to get too excited about Parker just yet.
Tyrell Williams, SD
Williams quickly went from unknown to fantasy contributor. It took some time for him to get going in Week 3, but he still managed to rack up six receptions for 69 yards on nine targets against the Colts. That brings him to 11 receptions for 201 yards and a TD on 20 targets.
He’s a legitimate top-30 option in Week 4 against the visiting Saints, as they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to WRs over the first three weeks.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Kevin White, CHI
White’s role in the offense has picked up in a hurry and could be the makings of something big. Last week, he had a team-high 14 targets and finished with six receptions for 62 yards. He now has 13 receptions for 132 yards on a team-high 27 targets for the season.
This comes at a time when Alshon Jeffery has been limited in practice with knee and hamstring issues. If White’s available, you should scoop him up since he’s a good reach play against a bad Lions defense. Plus, he could be in line for another high-target game if the Bears are playing from behind like they were against Dallas last week.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe’s facing growing pains in his rookie season, which should be expected. According to head coach Mike Mularkey, Sharpe took a “step back” and was inconsistent in Week 3 against the Raiders, per Jim Wyatt of the team's official website. With Kendall Wright returning to action this week, Sharpe could see his role diminish, especially since he’s battling a hamstring injury. He’s been banished to fantasy benches.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Boyd hasn’t found a consistent role in the Bengals offense. He caught just one of three targets for 10 yards in Week 4 and has 12 receptions for 130 yards on 18 targets on the season. You’re not considering him for anything more than a stash on your roster, and even that’s pushing it.
Eli Rogers/Sammie Coates, PIT
Rogers has turf toe after going down in Week 3, which has put his status in question for Week 4 and possibly beyond. Coates remains a boom-or-bust player after catching three of four targets for 50 yards against the Eagles in Week 3. Neither has current fantasy value.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Agholor hasn’t been productive for fantasy with just 11 receptions for 120 yards and a TD on the season. He likely wasn’t on many rosters and should be kept off them until further notice.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman continues to recover from the broken hand he suffered last week, but when he returns in the next month or so, it likely will come in a bigger role than expected. That’s because Josh Gordon announced on Thursday he was checking himself into an inpatient rehab facility, per a statement released by the team.
That means a healthy Coleman and Pryor will likely be leading the team’s receiving corps for the last two months of the season.
Josh Doctson, WAS
Doctson had to sit out Week 3 because of ongoing problems with his Achilles. According to John Keim of ESPN.com, head coach Jay Gruden said that after all the tests, there’s no long-term problem for Doctson, but noted that they could sit him out for “a couple more weeks.” He doesn’t belong on redraft league rosters.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
While Steve Smith Sr. and Mike Wallace are establishing themselves as the top WRs for Joe Flacco, Perriman’s struggled to find consistency. His snap percentages over the first three weeks are 29-41-37 and he has just five receptions for 89 yards on 11 targets. Perriman has talent, but it could take him some time to put it all together. If you stashed him away coming out of your draft, cut him loose.
Devin Funchess, CAR
Funchess scored on one of his two receptions in Week 2, but failed to bring in either one of his targets against the Vikings in Week 3. He’s been on the field for at least 51 percent of snaps in each game, but that doesn’t mean much for fantasy. Funchess has a lot to prove before you can consider using him in your lineup.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell hasn’t recorded a target in three games and has played a total of three snaps, all in Week 2. Obviously, he’s not on the fantasy radar.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
Hunter Henry, SD
The Chargers called on Henry in Week 3 with Antonio Gates sidelined by a hamstring injury. Henry gave them everything you could ask for until he fumbled his fifth and final reception to turn the ball over on the team’s final possession. Still, he caught all five of his targets for 72 yards and played 97 percent of the snaps.
Gates’ status doesn’t look good for Week 4 against the Saints, meaning Henry is in line for another big role against a bad defense. Even though it’s a small sample size, Henry looks like he can be a fantasy contributor for a team that needs him. Philip Rivers is showing once again how he lifts up all the players around him.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Clive Walford, OAK
Walford’s had trouble establishing himself in the Raiders offense so far this year. After posting six receptions for 50 yards and a TD on seven targets in Week 2, he had just two catches for 27 yards on three targets in Week 3. Walford is nothing more than a matchup play and doesn’t have to be on your roster unless you’re in a deeper league.
Jesse James, PIT
James has just five receptions for 39 yards and a TD on nine targets in his last two games following five receptions for 31 yards on seven targets in the opener. The Steelers are still looking for a reliable second option in the passing game behind Antonio Brown and might be getting that with Le’Veon Bell’s return to the lineup. James isn’t proven enough to consider using on a weekly basis.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper followed up his three-catch, 84-yard performance in Week 2 with absolutely nothing in Week 3. He didn’t have a target in the win over the Saints. Veteran Jacob Tamme is clearly in front of him and that won’t be changing anytime soon. Resume ignoring Hooper.
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