Fantasy Football: Predicting 2016's Biggest Busts at Each Position

In fantasy football, those early round draft choices can make or break your teams most of the time. 

If your first-round draft pick busts, it's an uphill battle from there to compete and as a result, you'll need to rely more on the waiver wire to stay in contention.

Throughout this slideshow of busts, you'll find two busts from each position. There could be a guy or two you've seen floating around out there, but you can also enjoy what you might call "hot takes."

While they may be hot takes in some regard, they also have legitimate bust potential, and hey, I'm just trying to help you guys out.

Let's start with a wide receiver on the Carolina Panthers.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

After what we saw from Carolina Panthers and quarterback Cam Newton in 2015, the football world is focusing in on how good of a team the Panthers can be with the return of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin.

While Benjamin is a nice asset for Newton and the Panthers to have as they march towards another Super Bowl appearance, I'm not a fan of his fantasy value.

Over the last few weeks, his ADP has slowly declined and is now going as the WR23 in PPR leagues. With his slow decline, his price tag is getting much more favorable, but I'm still concerned he can even finish as a WR23.

The first thing I recognize is the difference in the Panthers team. In 2014, you have a team that just barely made the playoffs with only seven wins and in 2015, they were nearly undefeated.

The numbers show Benjamin was a beneficiary of the Panthers trailing in games in 2014.

In 2014, Benjamin finished with 142 targets, corralling 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns. That is pretty good for a rookie season, no doubt—Benjamin finished as the WR15.

However, looking at Benjamin's fourth-quarter stats, they show he was used plenty in garbage time/situations to get back in to games. In the fourth quarter of 2014, Benjamin had 43 targets, 27 receptions for 415 yards and six touchdowns.

This equates to around 46 percent of his production.

His final production could have been much higher if not for his 11 drops in 2014. We knew coming out of Florida State that Benjamin had some issues with his hands.

Looking ahead to 2016, the Panthers are a more run and defensive-based team with more weapons than in 2014. They're used to using fellow wide receiver Ted Ginn from last year, so he'll have a role, and second-year man Devin Funchess figures to be a big red-zone threat for Newton.

Benjamin is likely to let you down if you select him in the fourth round.

Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

John Bazemore/Associated Press

As most of you have probably seen, pegging Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles as a bust has been a popular theme heading into the 2016 campaign.

The name of the game here is touchdown regression.

After going undrafted in 2015 fantasy leagues, Bortles ended up as the QB4 with 35 touchdown passes, but he also led the league in interceptions with 18.

Last season, the Jaguars were 5-11. It was a record which would dictate that they were behind often and as a result, forced Bortles to throw. 

This season, the arrow should be pointing upward for the people of Jacksonville with all of the upgrades in free agency and the NFL draft.

One of these upgrades include running back Chris Ivory, a weapon who should help balance out the Jaguars offense.

Right now Bortles is going in the eighth round as the ninth quarterback off the board. At that price tag, you're better off waiting and taking a quarterback later.

While he still has wide receiver Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, the Jaguars' rushing attack and improved defense (albeit on paper) should lead to less needed attempts from Bortles, thus dwarfing his overall fantasy production.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Hot take alert.

Entering the mainstream news yesterday, there is speculation the Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles may not be ready for Week 1 after coming off an ACL tear in 2015, according to Adam Teicher of ESPN.

This is obviously not good news.

Behind Charles are running backs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West—two backs we saw in 2015 who are actually pretty good.

According to Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star, Charles has been practicing mainly with the reserves, signaling they want to get Ware more involved with the first-team offense in the event Charles is not ready.

Charles has two ACL tears on his résumé in his illustrious career. Approaching age 30 with this news of him still working himself back are signs that this could be a frustrating season for Charles.

I'm not saying to avoid Charles, but his RB9 price tag with doubts heading in to Week 1 are far from what you want out of your RB1 in fantasy.

Keep an eye on this situation as it unfolds.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Perez/Associated Press

According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Philadelphia Eagles have traded quarterback Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings for a first-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick.

First of all, uh, wow. Who saw that coming? And for a first-round pick? Whew.

It's clear the Vikings want to win now.

Moving on from that, this affects the pass-catchers on the Eagles a decent amount. Although Bradford wasn't an all-world type of quarterback, it's hard to rely on rookie quarterback Carson Wentz, who, according to Adam Caplan on ESPN, the Eagles plan to start if he is healthy enough coming back from his rib injury. If he is not, it's on veteran Chase Daniel, a guy in whom I have little to no faith. 

Coming over from the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason with new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson, Daniel knows the offense. However, it's hard to imagine Daniel attempting enough passes in this offense to make anyone fantasy relevant. The same goes for Wentz, who, although he was the second-overall pick, is still a rookie.

Ertz is going a little later in drafts as the TE8, but he may finish as a fringe TE1 with Daniel is the driver's seat.

Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints

George Bridges/Associated Press

While it's easy to love tight ends in the New Orleans Saints offense, Coby Fleener is certainly making it hard.

According to Larry Holder of the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Fleener is struggling with communication and catching passes from quarterback Drew Brees.

This isn't just reporter speculation either. Josh Katzenstein of the Times-Picayune has also reported that Saints head coach Sean Payton has said Fleener is a "work in progress."

We all know the upside Fleener has in addition to the contract the Saints gave Fleener this offseason, which signals they plan to use him heavily going forward.

With all of this said, it's difficult to feel confident in a draft pick of Fleener in the sixth round with all of this negative news out there.

Fleener could very well finish as a top-five tight end, but this has headache written all over it.

Be weary of Fleener in drafts.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

I'm just full of hot takes today, I guess.

The premise of this argument may seem hollow and that's fine.

In 2015, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin had a career year, rushing for over 1,400 yards. However, he had just six touchdowns.

Although Martin had quite the 2015 campaign, it's difficult to think he'll have similar results in 2016.

Behind Martin is fellow running back Charles Sims. In over 100 carries in 2015, Sims averaged 5.0 yards per carry—he can effectively run the ball.

Over his career, Martin has had some health issues, playing in just 17 games combined in 2013 and 2014.

After signing his new contract, the Buccaneers may want to keep Martin healthy and fresh to avoid a financial disaster. As a result, we could see Sims have a few more carries, and as we know, Sims is the primary pass-catching option out of the backfield for the Buccaneers.

Because of this, Martin could see a decline in yardage. What makes this a huge deal outside of the obvious is Martin did not have elite touchdown production last season, which worries me.

At his current ADP of RB12, you are relying on Martin to return RB1 value. One of the keys to being a RB1 in fantasy football is health. There are some concerns there.

Sims should be a more featured runner after his performance last season. As a result, we could see Martin finish closer to 1,000 rushing yards than 1,500 yards. While 1,000 rushing yards is still a nice feat, if you couple that with his minimal touchdown production on the ground, Martin is probably more of a RB2 in PPR leagues this season.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has all of the tools to finish as the QB1 this year—except his weapons.

With a full deck, Roethlisberger would be a deadly fantasy quarterback in 2016. However, Big Ben will be without wide receiver Martavis Bryant for the season due to suspension, running back Le'Veon Bell for three games due to suspension and quite possibly tight end Ladarius Green for the entire season with ankle and concussion injury concerns.

This leaves Big Ben with a patchworked offense outside of wide receiver Antonio Brown and Bell when he returns.

Last season, Roethlisberger missed four games due to injury. He always seems to be banged up, doesn't he?

Not only that, but Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has outscored Roethlisberger in fantasy points three of the last four seasons. Although Roethlisberger missed some time in there, it just shows Roethlisberger isn't this mega-prolific passer we all peg him to be. Don't get me wrong; he's great. But a top-seven fantasy finish as his ADP suggests may be his ceiling in 2016.

Don't fall into this trap—stay away from Roethlisberger.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

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The bust pick of Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is solely based around new Broncos starting quarterback Trevor Siemian.

Don't get me wrong, the story of Siemian being a former seventh-round pick and the first opening day starting quarterback from Northwestern since Otto Graham is all great—I'm happy for Siemian.

But feel-good stories don't win fantasy championships, unfortunately.

It's hard to imagine the quarterback play from the Broncos could be worse than it was in 2015 with Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler, but this has as good a chance to compete as any.

Of course, we could see fellow quarterback Paxton Lynch at some point, but that's a dangerous way to draft Thomas—on the premise of Lynch probably playing.

Siemian has some ability to get the ball downfield which is nice when it comes to Thomas, but if you set the over/under on 6.5 touchdowns from Thomas in 2016, I'm taking the under and not looking back.

Thomas should still be drafted, but his WR18 ADP is a dangerous price to pay, especially when you consider some of the guys you'll pass on to take him.

Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus. All ADP references courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin.