Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Futures Report
NFL coaches never want their players to look ahead.
NFL coaches would make terrible fantasy owners.
In the world of fantasy, if you’re not planning for your future, you will lose. I don’t care if you’re sitting on top of your league at 4-0 or looking up from the basement at 0-4. One major injury can shift a season quickly, and if you’re caught flat-footed, it can destroy a promising start.
The purpose of this Futures Report is to examine the best first- and second-year players who could help you down the road, whether that’s at some point this season or, for you keeper and dynasty players, in 2017. Most of these players don’t have much fantasy value right now, but should be monitored as possible fantasy contributors as they develop and earn more opportunities.
Established second-year players like quarterbacks Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston won’t be discussed. I’m also leaving out obvious rookies contributors like running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry since both are primed for immediate, important roles.
I’ve broken these down by division due to the unbalance of possible fantasy contributors at each position. This first report breaks down five quarterbacks, 10 running backs, 15 wide receivers and four tight ends.
AFC East: In the Plans?
1 of 8
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
Team Depth Chart: Starter (temporary)
After Tom Brady serves his four-game suspension to open the season, no one expects to see Garoppolo play any meaningful snaps until Brady retires. For those of you in two-QB leagues or if you’re looking at Garoppolo as a possible streamer in the first month, the schedule is key.
I ranked Garoppolo as my No. 26 QB for Week 1 with a tough matchup in Arizona. Over the next three games, he’s home against the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills. Miami is likely the only possible game you can consider using him since the matchup isn’t bad. It’s still a deep reach, especially in just his second start.
Running Backs
Jonathan Williams, BUF
Team Depth Chart: Fourth
The Bills are a run-first offense and are coming off a 2015 in which they ranked first in rushing yards and second in rushing attempts. To show how committed they were to the run, the Bills ranked that high despite LeSean McCoy missing four games with various injuries.
McCoy has racked up 270-plus carries three times in the last five seasons and has at least 40 receptions in five of his seven seasons. He’s been one of the busiest RBs in football since entering the league in 2009, so concerns about him wearing down are justified. Even though Williams is buried on the depth chart behind Mike Gillislee and Reggie Bush, he might be the best option to carry a heavy workload if McCoy were to miss significant time. While he’s not worth grabbing right now, keep Williams on your radar if you have McCoy.
Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake, MIA
Team Depth Chart: Second/Fourth
Even though the Dolphins had no problem moving on from Lamar Miller, their actions in the offseason and preseason have done anything but endorse Ajayi. They signed C.J. Anderson to an offer sheet, which was matched by the Denver Broncos. Then, they selected Drake in the third round of this year’s draft. Perhaps the biggest hit to Ajayi’s value was the signing of Arian Foster coming off a ruptured Achilles in 2015.
With Foster announced as the starter, Ajayi will be relegated to a secondary role in the backfield, at least as long as Foster stays healthy. He’s played just 25 games over the last three seasons, so the door isn’t totally closed on Ajayi contributing. Drake’s hamstring issues are still a concern, so Ajayi is definitely the next man up behind Foster, but for how long? Even if he does take over for Foster at some point, Ajayi is nothing more than an RB3/flex option.
Wide Receivers
DeVante Parker, MIA
Team Depth Chart: Starter
Parker may be listed as a starter, but he may not play in Week 1 thanks to a hamstring injury that continues to linger and keep him out of practice. For the second time in as many seasons, Parker’s injury concerns are putting a damper on his rise as a possible fantasy star.
Coming off a season in which he averaged 19 yards per catch on just 26 receptions, the hope was Parker could take a big step forward in his second year under new head coach Adam Gase. Unfortunately, it seems like his development has been slowed so much by injuries that it’s not a given he’ll be a reliable contributor anytime soon. If the hamstring issues linger past this week, those with smaller benches may not be able to keep Parker around for long.
Tight Ends
None of note.
AFC West: The Autumn Wind Is a Raider
2 of 8
Quarterbacks
Paxton Lynch, DEN
Team Depth Chart: Second
Lynch played well enough in the preseason to earn the backup job to Trevor Siemian with the Broncos opting to release veteran Mark Sanchez. In fact, Lynch looked good enough in August to be in legit contention for the starting job, which is why many, including me, wonder just how long Lynch will remain the No. 2 QB in Denver.
In the opener, Siemian did enough to keep the Broncos in the game, but he made a couple of bad errors that led to two interceptions. With a strong rushing attack led by C.J. Anderson and one of the best defenses in the league, whoever plays QB for the Broncos likely won’t be asked to do too much other than protect the ball and keep the offense on schedule. Lynch is clearly more talented than Siemian, so it may be worth exploring his upside if Siemian has a habit of making poor decisions. This is an intriguing QB situation to keep an eye on this season.
Running Backs
Devontae Booker, DEN
Team Depth Chart: Second
Booker gave the Broncos enough reason to cut veteran Ronnie Hillman at the end of the preseason and assume Hillman’s role behind C.J. Anderson on the depth chart. In his regular-season debut, Booker had three carries for eight yards, but lost a fumble on his first carry.
According to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus, Booker played six snaps, which was ahead of Kapri Bibbs (2) but way behind Anderson (48). Because Denver relies so much on their ground game, Booker does have some value as a handcuff as Anderson’s backup, although I wouldn’t be running to snatch him up unless you have Anderson on your roster.
DeAndre Washington, OAK
Team Depth Chart: Third
Sometimes you need to read between the lines and ignore what a team’s depth chart looks like, especially in the case of the Oakland Raiders. Washington is behind both Latavius Murray and Taiwan Jones. Murray makes sense as at unquestioned starter, but Jones has floated between running back and defensive back during his five years in Oakland.
If Murray were to go down, the Raiders would almost definitely skip right over Jones and install Washington as their starter, as they should. Because Murray is a plodding, north-south runner without much speed, Washington has a chance to carve out a role as more than just a backup. He’s much quicker than Murray and has a burst that could provide a nice change of pace to Murray’s style. He’s an upside handcuff with more value on an ascending offense.
Wide Receivers
Chris Conley, KC
Team Depth Chart: Starter
The Chiefs are a well-defined team for fantasy. Their top two passing options are Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, and those are the only two receivers with any fantasy value. Conley might have a starting job, but he’s one of the few starters at WR that has no fantasy value unless Maclin or Kelce goes down.
Tight Ends
Clive Walford, OAK
Team Depth Chart: Starter
If Walford can step up in a great matchup with the New Orleans Saints this weekend, I may not include him in these reports for long since his future could be now. However, I’m not assuming anything with Walford or any young TE, as it’s been a position that’s burned many fantasy players trying to follow potential that ends up going nowhere.
Walford is in a great situation. The Raiders have an exciting, young offense led by second-year stars Derek Carr and Amari Cooper along with veteran Michael Crabtree. Cooper and Crabtree will grab the attention of opposing defenses, which allows Walford to stay under the radar as he continues his development.
Some, including me, are using Walford as a sleeper/cheap TE this weekend with the hope he can burn the Saints for big production. In fact, if Walford is for real, he should perform well in such a juicy matchup.
Hunter Henry, SD
Team Depth Chart: Third
As the top TE coming out of the 2016 draft, Henry got a big endorsement from the San Diego Chargers as their TE of the future when they selected him in the second round. Considering their needs at other positions, Henry’s draft status indicates San Diego wants him to be the heir apparent to Antonio Gates.
After playing all 16 games in 2013 and 2014, Gates was suspended for the first four games of last season and also dealt with a knee injury. Outside of Gates, Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin, the Chargers aren’t deep in their receiving corps. If Gates were to go down again, Henry could step into a big role quickly, although he’s more of a long-term prospect for fantasy.
AFC North: The Cleaner
3 of 8
Quarterbacks
None of note.
Running Backs
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Team Depth Chart: Fourth
Dixon was a fourth-round selection in this year’s draft, but he won’t make his debut this weekend due to a torn MCL he suffered in the third preseason game. His absence makes Baltimore’s backfield a little less crowded with Justin Forsett, Terrance West and Buck Allen ahead of him on the depth chart.
Even though he’s injured, the door is still open for Dixon to be an important contributor with potential fantasy value upon his return, and that could clear up this backfield. Forsett, an eight-year veteran, was actually part of final cuts only to re-sign ahead of Week 1. After two forgettable seasons with stops in Cleveland and now Baltimore, West did look better in the preseason, but shouldn’t be considered a long-term answer at the position.
Wide Receivers
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Team Depth Chart: Fourth
I’ve been on the Perriman bandwagon since the Ravens drafted him in the first round last year. After missing all of last season with a knee injury, Perriman had addition knee problems during the offseason, which delayed his preseason debut until the final game last week.
I’m not counting on him to be an early contributor, but I still believe he can be the top option by the end of the year based on his competition for playing time and targets. Steve Smith is attempting to come back from a torn Achilles. Mike Wallace is on his third team in as many years. Kamar Aiken never played a major role until last year’s injuries piled up and he was forced into the role and all the targets that come with it.
Perriman might be low on the depth chart for now, but I’d be prepared for him to rise up as he gets more comfortable and into better game shape over the first few weeks.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
When the Cincinnati Bengals lost Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu to free agency, they signed veteran Brandon LaFell and drafted Boyd in an effort to replace them. For now, the Bengals are deferring to LaFell as the starter opposite A.J. Green, although it may not take long for Boyd to overtake him.
In a perfect world, the Bengals would like the Green-Boyd combination to lead their passing attack for many years. Could that start soon? I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. Boyd’s in an interesting spot this weekend against the New York Jets. The team may need him to step up if Green gets locked up by Darrelle Revis.
Corey Coleman, CLE
Team Depth Chart: Starter
The Cleveland Browns made Coleman their first pick of a new, rebuilding regime. He’s already on top of the depth chart as a rookie even though he missed time in the preseason with a hamstring injury. That’s because the team is short on reliable WRs with any experience and Josh Gordon has to serve a four-game suspension to open the year.
Even though he’s a starter, it’s hard to get too excited about Coleman with the inconsistent Robert Griffin under center. Griffin is a rebuild of his own, and that might limit any potential fantasy vale Coleman may have, at least early in the season.
Sammie Coates, PIT
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
With Martavis Bryant serving a yearlong suspension and Ladarius Green on the PUP list to open the season, the fantasy-friendly Pittsburgh Steelers offense needs help in the receiving corps, but can Coates provide it?
Last year, the Steelers were third in passing yards even though they ranked 16th in passing attempts. The volume of the offense makes Coates so enticing, although we know Antonio Brown is clearly on top and Markus Wheaton looks like the unquestioned starter opposite Brown. Coates is still somewhat raw and his hands are questionable. His development may not come quick, but chances could be there anyway out of necessity. Sometimes volume is enough to boost fantasy value.
Tight Ends
Jesse James, PIT
Team Depth Chart: Starter
The Steelers haven’t given out much information on Ladarius Green, one of their biggest offseason acquisitions, other than he was placed on the PUP list with ankle and headache problems. If the headaches linger, Green may never see the field this season or ever again, so the Steelers need to look elsewhere on the roster to fill that void. James gets his chance to fill it by working as the starting TE to open the season.
Signing Green indicates Pittsburgh wasn’t sold on James stepping up in his second season, but now they don’t have a choice. With Bryant suspended for the year and Le’Veon Bell out three games, there are a lot of targets up for grabs in the high-volume Steelers offense. James has a big opportunity right out of the gate.
AFC South: Go Deep in the Heart
4 of 8
Quarterbacks
None of note.
Running Backs
Tyler Ervin, HOU
Team Depth Chart: Fourth
When Arian Foster went down last season, most thought Alfred Blue would be the clear handcuff and step right in for Foster. Although he had some good weeks, Blue wasn’t consistently featured as the lead back. Instead, the team went with more of a running back by committee (RBBC), and those who snatched up Blue never knew when he’d get the bulk of the carries.
Foster’s gone and Lamar Miller comes in as an upgrade, although Blue and Jonathan Grimes remain from last year’s backfield. Ervin may find himself in a RBBC if Miller gets hurt, but I think he has a good chance of emerging from that crowded group as the most talented player of the bunch.
Wide Receivers
Will Fuller/Braxton Miller, HOU
Team Depth Chart: Starter/Second-string
A pair of rookie WRs played well enough in the preseason to make the roster ahead of veteran Cecil Shorts, who was cut loose. While Miller is moving into his second season at WR after transitioning from three years as a QB at Ohio State, he’s picked up the position quickly.
Fuller has a chance at a quicker and bigger fantasy impact after earning a starting role in camp. He’s still raw and needs to improve his hands, but the explosive downfield abilities he possesses are apparent. DeAndre Hopkins is the unquestioned top WR in Houston, but Fuller could carve out a semiregular role in this offense.
Tight Ends
None of note.
NFC East: His Time Is Now
5 of 8
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott, DAL
Team Depth Chart: Starter
I’ve already written about Prescott in my weekly preview and big board articles early this week. No one should be assuming anything when it comes to Tony Romo’s back injury, so while I projected Prescott's season-long statistics to include eight starts in place of the injured Romo, I did so knowing that it could turn into more.
Prescott is already in some Week 1 lineups with his regular-season debut coming at home against the New York Giants. Will his legs carry him and you to fantasy victory? Can he build on his great preseason? Prescott’s rookie season may be the most interesting to watch.
Carson Wentz, PHI
Team Depth Chart: Starter
If you hear a team say they plan to sit a rookie QB for the entire season, don’t believe them. Those days are long gone and teams (and fans) want to see their next potential franchise QB on the field to know what they have (or don’t have) at the position.
Obviously the trade of Sam Bradford pushed Wentz into a starting role after just one appearance in the preseason before he suffered a rib injury. The Philadelphia Eagles declared Wentz healthy enough to start the opener, and it does come in a favorable matchup against the Browns.
Physically, Wentz may be the best QB prospect from this year’s class, so he has a high ceiling, but also a lower floor as a rookie. His fantasy value is tied to the future, not the present.
Running Backs
Rob Kelley, WAS
Team Depth Chart: Third
Kelley’s impressive preseason nearly vaulted him into a major role for Week 1, but it looks like Matt Jones will be sufficiently healed from his shoulder injury and ready to start against the Steelers.
Kelley’s third on the depth chart behind Jones and Chris Thompson, although that is deceptive since Thompson is more of a third-down, pass-catching back while Kelley is built to handle a heavier workload. He’s not established enough to snatch up as a handcuff to Jones, so monitoring Jones’ health and Kelley’s role in the offense are keys to determining if he has any fantasy value this year.
Wide Receivers
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Team Depth Chart: Starter
Agholor was a huge disappointment as a rookie, so expectations are much lower this season. He’s still battling for targets with Jordan Matthews and Zack Ertz like last year, but he also has to worry about Dorial Green-Beckham.
Because the Eagles decided to go with Carson Wentz as their starter at QB, rookie growing pains come with the territory and mistakes will be made. Will Agholor help the team and take a step forward in his development or continue to disappoint?
Josh Doctson, WAS
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
As the 22nd overall pick in this year’s draft, Doctson was set up to earn a big role in the offense quickly, but an Achilles injury suffered in June derailed those plans in a hurry. He was forced to miss all of training camp and the preseason, so he’s definitely behind in conditioning and working with Kirk Cousins and the rest of his teammates.
Still, as a first-round pick, the talent is there for Doctson and it shouldn’t be a long, hard road to a big role on this team as long as he stays healthy. He’s been limited in practice this week and likely won’t play on Monday against the Steelers. Keep an eye on him as a possible fantasy option down the road.
Tight Ends
None of note.
NFC West: No. 1 Is No. 3
6 of 8
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, LA
Team Depth Chart: Third
Goff had an ugly preseason, and his position on the depth chart is a direct result of that. The game seems to be moving too fast for the 2016 No. 1 overall pick, which will get either him or his teammates injured if he’s the one running the offense. Instead, the Rams have buried Goff on the depth chart behind Case Keenum and Sean Mannion.
Goff doesn’t have the physical skills of Carson Wentz or Paxton Lynch, but he was considered to be pro-ready and a favorite to start for the Los Angeles Rams, or at least play a lot as a rookie. The speed of his development will determine how fast he gets on the field.
Don’t expect any fantasy contributions from Goff this season and hope he can figure things out to possibly contribute in 2017.
Running Backs
None of note.
Wide Receivers
Pharoh Cooper, LA
Team Depth Chart: Third-string
A shoulder injury will likely keep Cooper out of the opener—and possibly longer. He’s yet to practice ahead of the Week 1 matchup in San Francisco, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. The rookie was firmly behind Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt on the depth chart anyway and is more of a long-term fantasy prospect in Los Angeles’ young offense.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, LA
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
Potential may seem exciting, but it hasn’t amounted to a lot at the tight end position for fantasy in recent years. The Rams have veteran Lance Kendricks on top of their depth chart, but Higbee could find his way into the mix quickly. Much like Cooper, he’s a fantasy project that will take time to earn his way onto any rosters.
NFC North: Ready or Raw?
7 of 8
Quarterbacks
None of note.
Running Backs
Jordan Howard, CHI
Team Depth Chart: Third
Jeremy Langford might be on top of the Chicago Bears' depth chart as the unquestioned starter, but will he stay there all year? Howard was a fifth-round selection in this year’s draft, and while that’s not a strong investment or an indication of how they feel about Langford, Howard’s presence has to be acknowledged as a possible threat to Langford’s touches at some point this season.
Even though he’s behind Ka’Deem Carey on the depth chart, it may not take much to pass him. Plus, the team would likely look to Howard if Langford got hurt. For now, just keep an eye on how much Howard plays and touches the ball early in the season. We’ll see if and how those numbers increase during the season.
Wide Receivers
Kevin White, CHI
Team Depth Chart: Starter
A shin injury cost White his entire rookie season, so many, including myself, are eager to see what he can do with a full training camp and preseason of work to prepare him for his regular-season debut.
As the No. 7 overall pick last season, expectations remain high for White this season; that’s why he’s already in some starting lineups for his debut, as long as it actually happens. According to Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com, White was limited in Thursday’s practice with a hamstring injury.
Getting White up to speed and comfortable at the professional level will determine how much of a factor he’ll be for fantasy. He’s still learning the position and trying to harness all his raw skills, so it may take time before he’s a consistent fantasy contributor.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
It can’t be easy for a rookie WR to change QBs twice in a week, but that’s what Treadwell is dealing with after losing Teddy Bridgewater to a terrible knee injury and the subsequent trade for Sam Bradford.
Even before the changes at QB, Treadwell looked far behind in the WR group and enters the season behind Stefon Diggs, Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright. As a first-round pick, the potential is there, but he seems to be more of a lottery ticket for fantasy this season and not someone you can rely on to produce.
Tight Ends
None of note.
NFC South: Lethal Lottery
8 of 8
Quarterbacks
None of note.
Running Backs
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
Team Depth Chart: Third
Artis-Payne’s season debut will have to wait another week, as he was a healthy scratch in Carolina’s loss to the Broncos. Fozzy Whittaker served as the backup to Jonathan Stewart. Whittaker had three carries for 13 yards and a reception for four yards in the loss.
When you consider Stewart’s injury history and Carolina’s reliance on running the ball, figuring out who’s next up could have some fantasy implications. After one game, Artis-Payne has already fallen behind in that discussion.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas, NO
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
The New Orleans Saints have a fantasy-friendly offense because Drew Brees is at the helm and they throw it a lot. In 2015, the Saints were tied for second with the Chargers at 667 passing attempts and first with 4,970 passing yards.
When a talented rookie like Thomas joins such a pass-happy team that parted ways with a longtime WR in Marques Colston, it’s hard not to get excited about his fantasy prospects. Even head coach Sean Payton told Josh Katzenstein of the Times-Picayune, “…I don’t follow fantasy football, but, shoot, I’d try to have him. I think he’s going to do well.”
The Saints like to spread the ball around, and Thomas might find himself behind established players like Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and Coby Fleener when it comes to targets. He earned plenty of hype in the preseason, but it may take him some time to be a regular in your starting lineups.
Devin Funchess, CAR
Team Depth Chart: Second-string
Funchess started the season opener against the Broncos but was actually fourth in WR snaps (39) behind Kelvin Benjamin (54), Ted Ginn (47) and Corey Brown (40), according to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus. He wound up with just one reception for nine yards on four targets in the loss.
Benjamin is clearly the top WR and TE Greg Olsen is up there in terms of the target share with nine to Benjamin's 12, so Funchess is already behind on a team that loves to run the ball. There may not be enough to go around for Funchess to be a consistent option, so for now, he’s probably not worth a spot in your lineup unless the matchup is particularly good.
Tight Ends
None of note.
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