B/R Predicts MLB Playoff Teams, Award Winners and More, 1 Month Out
The final month of the 2016 MLB season has arrived, but there is still a lot to be sorted out before the regular season wraps up and another postseason begins.
As many as 18 teams can still be considered contenders for at least a wild-card berth. As for individual accolades, September performances will decide several major awards.
With that in mind, some of the top MLB writers at Bleacher Report have decided to try their hands at predicting the league's 10 playoff teams, major award winners and a few other notable things.
These six writers made up our panel of prognosticators:
- Seth Gruen, National MLB Columnist
- Danny Knobler, MLB Lead Writer
- Joel Reuter, National MLB Columnist
- Zachary Rymer, MLB Lead Writer
- Jacob Shafer, National MLB Columnist
- Rick Weiner, National MLB Columnist
David Ortiz's Final Career HR Total
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| 543 | 543 | 544 | 540 | 542 | 544 |
Total entering September: 534
Gruen (543): He has 10 homers in 24 games against the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees. Boston has 14 combined games against both clubs during which Ortiz will get to feast.
Knobler (543): That would give him 40 this year, for his first 40-homer season in 10 years, and make him the first 40-year-old to hit 40 home runs.
Reuter (544): Big Papi has a career .940 OPS in September. Considering how well his farewell season has gone so far, he should close out the regular season with a bang. We'll go big and say he hits 10 over the final 29 games.
Rymer (540): He has 534 now and has been averaging about six per month without showing any signs of slowing down, so the rudimentary arithmetic adds up.
Shafer (542): For what it's worth, that puts him exactly six ahead of Mickey Mantle and exactly six behind Mike Schmidt on the all-time list.
Weiner (544): He won't catch Manny Ramirez (555 HR), but is anyone going to bet against Big Papi putting together a big September to close out his final regular season?
Impact September Call-Up (Pitcher)
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 |  | | |  | |
| Tyler Glasnow | Jose De Leon | Jose De Leon | Jose De Leon | Lucas Giolito | Jose De Leon |
Gruen (Glasnow): Sure, Glasnow is in the minors rehabbing an injured shoulder. But he's still a prospect (only two MLB starts) who will be with this team in September and help Pittsburgh keep contact in the NL wild-card race.
Knobler (De Leon): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said they will only call De Leon up if there's a need, per David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports. The way the Dodgers go through pitchers, isn't it a sure thing there will be a need? Oh, and did you see he struck out 13 batters the other day in Triple-A?
Reuter (De Leon): The way the Dodgers have churned through starters this year, it's surprising that De Leon hasn't already gotten the call. Whether he's used as a multi-inning guy out of the bullpen or steps into the rotation, he could be an X-factor in a tight NL West race.
Rymer (De Leon): The Dodgers need fresh starters at the same rate Spinal Tap needs new drummers, and De Leon's mix of good control and serious swing-and-miss stuff should allow him to make an immediate impact.
Shafer (Giolito): Giolito was sent down Monday after yielding four runs in five innings in his fourth MLB start on Sunday, but he will be back. And since Washington is in control of the NL East, the stud right-hander should have plenty of opportunities to help the Nats' postseason push.
Weiner (De Leon): A strikeout artist with terrific control, De Leon gives the Dodgers another big-time arm to slot into their pitching staff. De Leon's arrival will give the Dodgers another edge over the rest of their competition for a playoff spot, whether he replaces, say, Julio Urias in the Dodgers rotation, allowing the team to turn the teen into a one-inning reliever down the stretch to keep his innings under control, or winds up in relief himself.
Impact September Call-Up (Hitter)
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Gruen (La Stella): La Stella was hitting .295/.388/.457 before he was sent down to Triple-A Iowa because he still had options. He initially refused to report to Iowa but has since joined the club and is sure to be a valuable pinch hitter as the Cubs try to secure home-field advantage in the NL playoffs.
Knobler (Moncada): Boston third basemen are 28th in the majors in OPS (.703) and have been even worse than that in the second half. Moncada, who had been playing second base in Double-A, was just moved to third base. Hmm, think he could make a difference?
Reuter (Moncada): It won't be hard for Moncada to be an upgrade over the current third-base tandem of Travis Shaw and Aaron Hill, both of whom are hitting under .200 since the All-Star break. He could be this year's version of Corey Seager, stepping into a starring role over the season's final month.
Rymer (Moncada): The Red Sox clearly don't want to get anyone's hopes up, but Moncada's recent move to the hot corner highlights him as a potential solution to a problem position. He could be this year's Seager.
Shafer (Moncada): After Red Sox skipper John Farrell indicated it would be a strong possibility, the club made Moncada's promotion official for Friday night's game against the A's. Now, he'll lend his enviable tools to a Boston club battling for supremacy in the wide-open AL East.
Weiner (Gallo): With Shin-Soo Choo sidelined and the recently signed Carlos Gomez a shell of the All-Star he once was, Gallo could see regular playing time in an outfield corner for the Rangers.
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Upcoming Free Agent Who Will Boost His Stock Most in September/October
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Gruen (Desmond): Most point to Desmond's offensive resurgence as the reason he'll cash in big this winter. But he's playing center field for the first time in his career—very well, I might add—and has proved he has the kind of defensive versatility MLB managers increasingly value.
Knobler (Desmond): He was great in the first half and has not been so great so far in the second half. But the market seems set up for him (a few power hitters, not many shortstops or center fielders), and he'll have a national stage to make his case.
Reuter (Saunders): A .298/.372/.551 first-half line made Saunders an All-Star for the first time in his career. He's gone ice-cold since the break, though, hitting just .195/.309/.432. It might take a strong final month and postseason to solidify his case for a three- or four-year deal this winter.
Rymer (Cespedes): There's no way he doesn't use his opt-out after a season such as this. And ever since he came off the disabled list a couple of weeks ago, the dude's been hotter than Johnny Storm.
Shafer (Trumbo): If he can keep the power stroke going, Trumbo has a shot at a 50-homer season. Set aside his pedestrian on-base percentage and defensive shortcomings; someone will pay handsomely for that kind of pop.
Weiner (Bautista): If he can stay healthy and help power Toronto into the playoffs, Bautista can recoup some of the value he's lost with two trips to the disabled list and an un-Joey Bats-like .230/.351/.460 triple-slash line.
NL Hitting Leaders
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| | |  | | | |
| BA | Daniel Murphy | Daniel Murphy | Daniel Murphy | DJ LeMahieu | Daniel Murphy | Daniel Murphy |
| | | | | | |
| H | Daniel Murphy | Daniel Murphy | Corey Seager | DJ LeMahieu | Corey Seager | Corey Seager |
 | | | | | | |
| HR | Kris Bryant | Kris Bryant | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado | Kris Bryant |
| | | | | | |
| RBI | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado | Nolan Arenado |
| | | | | | |
| R | Kris Bryant | Kris Bryant | Kris Bryant | Kris Bryant | Kris Bryant | Kris Bryant |
 | | | | |  | |
| SB | Billy Hamilton | Billy Hamilton | Billy Hamilton | Billy Hamilton | Billy Hamilton | Jonathan Villar |
AL Hitting Leaders
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| BA | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve |
| |  | | | | |
| H | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | Mookie Betts | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve |
 |  | | | | | |
| HR | Mark Trumbo | Edwin Encarnacion | Mark Trumbo | Mark Trumbo | Mark Trumbo | Mark Trumbo |
| | | | | | |
| RBI | David Ortiz | Edwin Encarnacion | David Ortiz | David Ortiz | Edwin Encarnacion | David Ortiz |
| | | | | | |
| R | Mookie Betts | Josh Donaldson | Mookie Betts | Josh Donaldson | Mookie Betts | Mookie Betts |
 | | | | | | |
| SB | Rajai Davis | Rajai Davis | Rajai Davis | Rajai Davis | Rajai Davis | Rajai Davis |
NL Pitching Leaders
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| W | Stephen Strasburg | Jake Arrieta | Jake Arrieta | Jake Arrieta | Johnny Cueto | Jake Arrieta |
| | | | | | |
| ERA | Madison Bumgarner | Madison Bumgarner | Kyle Hendricks | Kyle Hendricks | Kyle Hendricks | Kyle Hendricks |
| | | | | | |
| WHIP | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer |
| |  | | | | |
| K | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer | Jose Fernandez | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer | Max Scherzer |
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| SV | Jeurys Familia | Kenley Jansen | Jeurys Familia | Kenley Jansen | Jeurys Familia | Kenley Jansen |
AL Pitching Leaders
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| W | J.A. Happ | Rick Porcello | Rick Porcello | Rick Porcello | Rick Porcello | Rick Porcello |
 | | | | | | |
| ERA | Cole Hamels | Cole Hamels | Cole Hamels | Cole Hamels | Cole Hamels | Cole Hamels |
|  | | |  | | |
| WHIP | Corey Kluber | Justin Verlander | Corey Kluber | Corey Kluber | Chris Sale | Justin Verlander |
 | | | | | | |
| K | Chris Archer | Chris Archer | Chris Archer | Chris Archer | Chris Archer | Justin Verlander |
| | | | | | |
| SV | Zach Britton | Zach Britton | Zach Britton | Zach Britton | Zach Britton | Francisco Rodriguez |
NL Comeback Player of the Year
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|  |  | |  | |
| Wilson Ramos | Jean Segura | Julio Teheran | Jean Segura | Wil Myers | Wilson Ramos |
Gruen (Ramos): Ramos in 2015: .229/.258/.358. And his numbers in 2016: .312/.360/.508 with 20 homers and 71 RBI. Enough said?
Knobler (Segura): He's finally showing the promise the Brewers saw when they got him in the Zack Greinke trade. They saw it only briefly in 3.5 seasons, but now he's one of the few bright spots of a mostly lost season in Arizona.
Reuter (Teheran): A 4.04 ERA and 1.306 WHIP left Teheran's value at rock bottom this past offseason, but the Braves held on to him hoping he'd rebound as a viable trade chip. He did that and then some, and he now appears to be a cornerstone of their rebuilding efforts.
Rymer (Segura): Wil Myers has been my guy for this all year, but he's hit the skids in the second half. Segura is headed in the opposite direction, making a good comeback year even better.
Shafer (Myers): He could be hurt by the Padres' also-ran status, but the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year is back in a big way after a pair of disappointing, injury-depleted seasons.
Weiner (Ramos): His .616 OPS was the lowest among qualified catchers last year and MLB's third-worst. This year? His .868 mark not only leads all catchers, but it cracks MLB's top 30.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
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Gruen (Ortiz): Do you have to hit rock bottom first? Or is it OK if you're defying odds in the twilight of your career? Ortiz has done the latter, hitting above .300 this year after back-to-back seasons suggested he was on the decline.
Knobler (Trumbo): Remember when Trumbo had back-to-back 30-homer seasons with the Angels in 2012-13? This is the year he showed that power is still there.
Reuter (Desmond): His .226/.262/.350 line since the All-Star break isn't great, but Desmond was so good in the first half that he still has an .804 OPS with 21 home runs and 78 RBI on the year. Throw in his surprisingly smooth transition to center field, and he remains the obvious choice here.
Rymer (Cano): Desmond has been great for most of the year, but he has reverted back to some bad habits since the break. Cano wasn't terrible last year, but this season has completely destroyed the notion that he's a husk of his former self.
Shafer (Desmond): His offensive numbers stand by themselves after a down year with the Nationals in 2015. But he gets bonus points for learning to play center field for the first time in the big leagues with Texas.
Weiner (Desmond): He hasn't been a defensive mess despite making the switch from shortstop to center field, and he's been (arguably) the most productive bat on the American League's best team.
NL Manager of the Year
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| | | | | |
| Dave Roberts | Dave Roberts | Dave Roberts | Dusty Baker | Dusty Baker | Dave Roberts |
Gruen (Roberts): Los Angeles has put more than a roster's worth of players on the disabled list, including baseball's best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw. Yet, Roberts still has this team in a playoff position.
Knobler (Roberts): A record number of players on the disabled list, including the most important player on the team. Management gave him a flawed rotation and told him to make the best of it, and he's done it so well that the Dodgers are in first.
Reuter (Roberts): Roberts inherited a team with more than a few issues, from a banged-up starting rotation that was sans Zack Greinke to the ongoing distraction that is Yasiel Puig. Things didn't get any easier when the injuries started to pile up—Kershaw being the obvious headliner—but Roberts has been a steadying presence, and he has the Dodgers poised to make another postseason appearance.
Rymer (Baker): Roberts is a tempting pick, but the narrative is strong with Baker. He has indeed righted a ship that went badly askew under Matt Williams last year, and that's going to be a factor in an easy division win.
Shafer (Baker): After a disastrous, flame-out season under Williams, the Nats have stabilized and thrived with Baker. Whatever his faults, real or perceived, his reputation as a player's manager and calming clubhouse presence remains firmly intact.
Weiner (Roberts): Between a record number of injuries—including to the best pitcher on the planet—the Puig fiasco and a flawed roster, Roberts has done a masterful job of guiding the Dodgers atop the NL West in his first year on the job.
AL Manager of the Year
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Gruen (Banister): All due respect to the outstanding job Terry Francona has done with the Cleveland Indians, Banister seems to have pushed all the right buttons on this squad—most notably recognizing Desmond has the athleticism to play center field.
Knobler (Francona): The Indians had losing records each of the four seasons before he arrived, and they've had winning records in each of the four seasons he's been in charge. They were counting on getting Michael Brantley back and didn't, but Francona kept them believing it didn't matter.
Reuter (Francona): Tito has completely changed the culture in Cleveland, and his use of super-utility man Jose Ramirez this season is just one example of him making a difference from the manager's seat. The front office deserves credit for signing guys such as Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis on the cheap, but it's Francona who has fit all of the pieces together.
Rymer (Showalter): Nobody thought the Orioles would be any good this year. Winning in the face of such low expectations is the best way for managers to get trophies.
Shafer (Showalter): The Orioles may settle for a wild-card spot, but if Showalter gets them back to the postseason with that ghastly starting rotation, he should earn the nod.
Weiner (Girardi): He has the Yankees back in the thick of the playoff race heading into September despite an inconsistent offense, a mediocre-to-awful starting rotation and losing two-thirds of his dominant late-inning trio.
NL Rookie of the Year
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| | | | | |
| Corey Seager | Corey Seager | Corey Seager | Corey Seager | Corey Seager | Corey Seager |
Gruen (Seager): I'm writing this unaware of who my colleagues have selected. I would be shocked if they selected anyone else.
Knobler (Seager): He's a rookie, and he's a serious contender for MVP. What else do you need to know?
Reuter (Seager): There have been 20 unanimous Rookie of the Year votes since the award's inception in 1947. That total will climb to 21 after Seager sweeps the NL balloting this year.
Rymer (Seager): Literally duh.
Shafer (Seager): With Trevor Story and Aledmys Diaz hurt, this is easily the most no-duh awards race.
Weiner (Seager): Even if Diaz and Story had managed to stay healthy, Seager would have still run away with the award.
AL Rookie of the Year
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Gruen (Fulmer): His 2.69 ERA is impressive for a rookie. His 1.06 WHIP is a number most veteran pitchers dream of.
Knobler (Fulmer): Verlander is back to being an ace, but it's the kid Fulmer who has been the Tigers' most consistent starting pitcher all season.
Reuter (Fulmer): Tyler Naquin was my preseason pick for AL Rookie of the Year, and he's been big for an Indians team that expected to have a healthy Michael Brantley. There's simply no ignoring how good Fulmer has been, though.
Rymer (Fulmer): I see you, Naquin and Gary Sanchez, but one of you is a platoon player, and the other is a small-sample hero who can't possibly stay this hot forever. Fulmer is not perfect, but a 2.69 ERA over 21 starts is plenty good enough.
Shafer (Fulmer): He's challenging for the ERA crown and should handily win ROY, barring a late meltdown or a suddenly imposed innings limit.
Weiner (Fulmer): He has been Detroit's most consistent starter in a rotation with a rejuvenated Verlander.
NL Cy Young
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Gruen (Hendricks): Forget about the pitcher Hendricks was and look at the pitcher he is now: He leads the NL with a 2.09 ERA and has a 0.981 WHIP.
Knobler (Scherzer): Tons of strikeouts, tons of innings, hardly any hits—and oh, he wins games too.
Reuter (Bumgarner): Mad Bum has hit a bit of a rough patch, posting a 4.14 ERA in six August starts while failing to pitch beyond the fifth inning three times. Some may argue that he's tiring, but he has a career-best 2.60 ERA in September, and a strong final month could push him out front in a wide-open race.
Rymer (Scherzer): It's a wide-open field, but he's the guy with the best overall stats and he also happens to be red-hot.
Shafer (Scherzer): This race opened up after Clayton Kershaw's injury, but if Scherzer maintains his position as the NL's strikeout leader and keeps his ERA under 3.00, he's the nominal favorite.
Weiner (Scherzer): Over his last 21 starts, dating back to his 20-strikeout performance against Detroit on May 11, Scherzer has pitched to a 2.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with 192 strikeouts over 147 innings.
