Fantasy Football 2016: Top Rookie Talents to Target

Fantasy investors have a natural affinity for the shiny new toy. Rookie commodities embody the risk-and-reward balance we face in fantasy sports. The pendulum of hype and reality is difficult to discern.

We seem to appreciate a rising rookie more than a steady vet, especially after some massive seasons from rookies such as Doug Martin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2012 or the amazing 2014 receiver class that saw Odell Beckham Jr. of the New York Giants, Kelvin Benjamin of the Carolina Panthers and Mike Evans of the Bucs deliver elite campaigns.

The Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott, for example, has been crowned a fantasy superstar before ever taking a snap. Can he become yet another Dallas back to shine behind that peerless offensive line? 

In this fantasy feature, let's take a look at Elliott's prospects for a big season and evaluate the current crop of professional freshmen with an eye on what their fantasy prospects for 2016 look like from our preseason perch. 

Feel free to share your favorite rookie picks and assorted hot takes on this 2016 class in the comments below. 

Fantasy Investors Expecting Elite Production from Ezekiel Elliot

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The fantasy football market is expecting a historic rookie campaign from the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott. The Ohio State product is going off the board as the fourth running back on average in point-per-reception drafts, per Fantasy Pros.

We can't admonish the enthusiasm, as the Cowboys' lauded offensive line claimed Pro Football Focus' top run-blocking grade for the 2014 and 2015 seasons. This elite group of road-graders helped propel DeMarco Murray to lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage and lead all backs in 2014 in fantasy points, using ESPN scoring.

From Week 6 on last season, when he began earning the starting workload, the Cowboys' Darren McFadden averaged 107.8 yards from scrimmage, the most in the league over the final 12 weeks of the season. You get the idea—this is a sweet situation for Elliott to exploit.

One holdup in vaulting him to top-five fantasy status is the rarity of the feat for a rookie.

Going back over the past four seasons in ESPN fantasy results, the average fantasy total for a top-five finish among backs in standard scoring formats is 212 points. Over the past 10 seasons, dating back to 2006, six rookie running backs have produced at least 210 fantasy points over the course of the regular season, with the last occurrence coming in 2012 when both the Bucs' Doug Martin and the Washington Redskins' Alfred Morris surpassed this scoring threshold.

ESPN is projecting Elliott to tally 1,574 yards from scrimmage, including a valuable 49 receptions and right around 10 scores. This projects him for the fourth-most fantasy points in both standard and PPR formats. A study conducted by the author for ESPN fantasy found that volume of touches is the key determinant in Elliott returning positive production for his lofty draft price:

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Nine rookie running backs have been afforded at least 250 rushing attempts since 2006, with eight of these efforts resulting in RB1 production (at least 170 standard fantasy points). Of those nine rookie workhorse campaigns, six earned at least 40 targets and 260 receiving yards. This select six averaged 210 standard and 259 PPR points—good for RB1 production in each of the past 10 seasons—thanks to such voluminous workloads.

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Can Elliott become the seventh rookie back since 2006 to produce a top-five fantasy effort at the position? It appears workload is the driving force for him to meet the milestone. Among draft-eligible tailbacks in college football last season, Elliott graded 23.5 percent higher than the next closest back in from Pro Football Focus' NCAA grading index.

It will cost a high-leverage investment to find out if Elliott can live up the hype, but history—both in terms of rookie precedent and his own elite offensive line—supports the premise.

Big, Bruising Back Derrick Henry Is a Rising Commodity in Fantasy Drafts

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Playing for a small school in northern Florida right near the Georgia border, Derrick Henry rushed for just over 12,000 yards and 153 touchdowns in high school for Yulee High, according to MaxPreps. That's not a typo—and it's a national record, per ESPN.

Henry went on to dominate at Alabama, grading second among draft-eligible backs last season in rushing, according to Pro Football Focus. The hulking back rates in the 99th percentile in height (6'3") and weight (247 lbs) among positional prospects since 1999, per MockDraftable.

Bleacher Report's scouting report on Henry is illuminating: "Henry's power can be impressive. He runs with a natural body lean and a big back's mindset. He will look for and deliver contact. As a true one-cut, downhill runner, he's at his best when he can build up a big head of steam and truck defenders in space." 

As for the negatives from the report: "He doesn't vary or change up his speed, and he doesn't show a true second gear in space. As a tall, upright runner, Henry takes hits in the backfield and doesn't break tackles at the rate you would expect." 

Drafted 45th overall by the Titans as part of coach Mike Mularkey's "exotic smashmouth" scheme, Henry has been brilliant in the preseason so far. While the preseason is often dismissed, it can prove revealing for rookies. Henry rates second among NFL backs and tops among his draft class in preseason action so far, according to Pro Football Focus.

ESPN projects Henry to amass more than 770 total yards and around seven touchdowns in a complementary role to veteran back DeMarco Murray. With a reasonable, if rising, draft stock as the 41st running back taken on average in drafts, per Fantasy Pros, shares of Henry as a lottery-ticket back behind a veteran with a noted injury history and declining efficiency could prove profitable.

DeAndre Washington Could Be the Most Meaningful Handcuff in 2016

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The above picture shows Raiders' rookie DeAndre Washington in the midst of an impressive juke that freed him up for a sizable gain in the team's first preseason game. You can watch the move here, courtesy of NFL.com. 

With favorable physical comparables to Ray Rice and DeAngelo Williams, per MockDraftable's database, Washington delivers upside as Oakland's understudy to Latavius Murray. The Raiders offensive line is projected as the second-best group in the NFL, per Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus. 

The scheme setup is helpful to consider, as the Raiders added to an already impressive line this offseason. The team intends to run the ball more this season, per Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle, so a viable role could develop for Washington behind incumbent workhorse Murray.

Washington brings proven hands to the pro level, as he hauled in 124 catches for nearly 1,110 yards in college, good for a robust rate of 8.8 yards per reception. For comparison, Murray struggled with receiving efficiency last season; he was one of just three NFL backs to catch at least 35 passes, but he failed to top six yards per reception. 

Independent fantasy value could prove difficult for Washington behind what should be a heavy workload for Murray, but it's easy to see why he's one of the best insurance policies as an ideal handcuff asset this season. The Raiders will run a ton, so Washington could earn meaningful third-down passing work and is an injury away from immense value.

If he ever vaults into the starting role, Washington has league-winning upside reminiscent of what the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson offered in 2015. As of press time, it will cost you only a late-round gamble to net shares of Washington, per Fantasy Pros. 

Fantasy Football 2016: Breaking Down the Rest of the Rookie Running Backs

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We've already covered three key rookie running back narratives for the upcoming season, but the class offers a number of other intriguing players and scenarios to consider. In this slide, we'll offer a few sentences each on a number of interesting rookie tailbacks. 

Denver's Devontae Booker Brings Upside 

Booker ranked third in the draft class in positional grading, according to Pro Football Focus. Veteran backup back Ronnie Hillman is on the roster bubble in Denver, according to ESPN.com's Dennis Georgatos, while Booker has flashed big-play ability in the preseason and in camp.

We've seen Denver's C.J. Anderson struggle with efficiency and even durability as the feature back, which suggests late-round shares of Booker, who is going 51st among backs, according to Fantasy Pros, are sensible in deeper leagues.

Rookie Kenneth Dixon Mired in a Busy Backfield Competition in Baltimore

Kenneth Dixon is a talented player in space with a penchant for forcing missed tackles. He is also the top receiving talent at the position of the 2016 class, per NFL.com. The holdup in chasing shares of this elusive, soft-handed talent would be the muddied backfield depth chart for the Baltimore Ravens, which lists Dixon fourth.

We'd rather invest in Booker, Derrick Henry and DeAndre Washington than Dixon, especially at his current draft price of RB48, per Fantasy Pros. There will be a time when Dixon is a meaningful fantasy asset, but it might not be until 2017, given the competition in Baltimore. 

Other Notables

The Bears' Jordan Howard is buried behind Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey and even Jacquizz Rodgers on the depth chart for the Chicago Bears. The bruising back has impressive interior skills, but like Dixon, he could struggle to find meaningful work this season. 

We don't endorse immediate interest in the Giants' Paul Perkins, but he's one of the most talented backs of the class; he ranked behind only Ezekiel Elliott in grading last season, per Pro Football Focus. Deep-league managers should attempt to stash him, while 10- and 12-team managers need to keep a close on eye on him early in the season. If veteran feature back Rashad Jennings were to go down, Perkins could assume impressive fantasy value as the team's best early-down option (we're not buying the Andre Williams love). 

The Seattle Seahawks' C.J. Prosise earned hype early in the summer as a third-down threat for the Seahawks with the potential for more, but injuries throughout training camp have dampened the buzz. Prosise doesn't have much potential to earn early-down shares behind Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael, so he's just a dynasty asset at this stage of his development. 

Can the Giants' Sterling Shepard Return Value in Fantasy Drafts?

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New York Giants rookie receiver Sterling Shepard can be seen in the picture above listening to fantasy football podcasts praising his upside for the coming season. This might not be true, but the buzz for Shepard as the highest-drafted fantasy rookie wideout, per Fantasy Pros' ADP index, is undeniable. 

Jordan Ranaan of ESPN.com doubts Shepard can top ESPN's projection for receptions (68) and yardage (850). "Shepard is an impressive talent and will contribute immediately," Ranaan wrote. "He'll start Week 1 and be on the field for 90 percent of the offensive snaps. But 65 catches for 780 yards sounds more reasonable and realistic." 

Shepard produced the highest overall grade at the position from Pro Football Focus on draft-eligible receivers in college last season. He's well positioned as the No. 2 target on a pass-happy offense that ranked sixth in pass attempts last season.

With the Giants' pass-happy offense likely to deploy Shepard for that volume of snap exposure, it's understandable to see his draft stock rise. He's currently going 94th overall and 40th at the position on average in drafts, per Fantasy Pros.

Shepard has risen into the sixth and seventh round in some industry drafts this summer, which is a bit rich and demands he exceeds ESPN's projections in order to return value. The rich success of the 2014 draft class is still being felt, but if you can land Shepard as your fourth wideout closer to his ADP on Fantasy Pros, it would allow some cushion for profit.

Can Corey Coleman Continue His Big-Play Production in the Pros?

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Corey Coleman drew rave reviews in Bleacher Report's scouting breakdown leading into the NFL draft, and he was the first wideout selected overall. The pros to his game are considerable, per B/R: 

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Corey Coleman is that big-play receiver you want on the edge, and he has the toughness to match his speed and intensity. Coleman was among the most dangerous players in all of college football in 2015, grabbing 74 catches for over 1,300 yards and a crazy 20 touchdowns while averaging 18.4 yards per catch. ... With excellent burst, Coleman can quickly get into his route, but he's also able to make plays after the catch. There he averaged 7.7 yards with the ball in his hands and showed the lateral agility to juke defenders and the acceleration to leave a beaten cornerback in his dust.

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Of the glaring negatives in the scouting report, beating press coverage at the line is a noted concern: "Coleman played in a scheme that got him free releases and opportunities in space—something the NFL won't do." 

We like what Coleman accomplished as a volume receiver at Baylor and as a key vertical maven for that prolific college offense. Pro Football Focus graded him ninth in the passing phase among his class at the position, while the Cleveland Browns clearly had the nation's leader in receiving touchdowns atop their draft board. 

One key concern with Coleman is the lack of passing volume we could see from the Browns; ESPN projects them to log 485 combined passes between their top two quarterbacks. Coleman would need to consume at least a 20 percent market share of the passing offense in order to exceed, or even meet, his current projections at ESPN (67 catches for 817 yards and four scores).  

Investors are drafting Coleman 42nd on average among wideouts, per Fantasy Pros. Much like the Giants' Sterling Shepard, we need Coleman's stock to remain in that range in order to account for the requisite downside we find in a rookie receiver's projection.

The Saints' Michael Thomas Could Become the Next Marques Colston

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As Keyshawn Johnson's nephew, the New Orleans Saints' Michael Thomas might just demand the ball from Drew Brees. Assuming he's more subtle than his uncle, having a solid share of the Saints' prolific passing game could lead to a solid season from the rookie, who rates in at least the 75th percentile in height (6'3") and weight (212 lbs) and 97th in hand size (10 ½"), per MockDraftable. 

Jordan Matthews, Keenan Allen, Josh Gordon and Larry Fitzgerald are all favorable physical comparables, per MockDraftable. Thomas' college tape wasn't astounding at Ohio State, as he graded 21st at the position at Pro Football Focus, but his blend of size and explosion is notable.  

Offseason hype has been building for Thomas, who has been a one-handed reception maven in camp. This type of playmaking hype fuels Twitter love and rising draft stock, while a role in the vacated slot workload left by Marques Colston also drives interest. 

Is the growing hype for Thomas misguided? Per Fantasy Pros, draft trends suggest you can still get Thomas for a reasonable price as the 52nd wide receiver on average. We're willing to guess the real price in drafts is much higher and closer to WR40, given the growing hype train with each viral Vine highlight from camp. 

The upside is real: He's a potential red-zone threat with those massive mitts and has the potential to earn tons of snaps in the valuable Colston role. The downside is also real, as the Saints have been known to spread the ball around to the open man, and they have established targets all over the field to compete with. 

This is becoming common counsel in our evaluation of rookie wideouts so far, but we advise caution if Thomas' price leaps into the sixth and seventh round in your draft; however, there is real potential for profit if his stock mirrors the data at Fantasy Pros. 

Tajae Sharpe Is a Rising Rookie Who Fantasy Managers Should Target

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The Titans' recent trade of Dorial Green-Beckham was in part facilitated by their newfound gem, Tajae Sharpe. DGB had his own part in his departure, but Sharpe's rise atop the team's depth chart as an outside receiver is illuminating in this context. 

In the team's second preseason game, the rookie out of UMass flashed brilliant timing and route running and a rare rapport with signal-caller Marcus Mariota en route to hauling in all six of his targets. Coach Mike Mularkey summed up the chemistry well in speaking to John Glennon of the Tennessean afterward:

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I think it’s a big trust level ... What you’re seeing is basically what (Sharpe) does in practice. He’s made some bigger catches today, some big catches that we haven’t had here in a while. It’s a trust factor. He believes and knows he’s going to be in the right place at the right time and to this point—since he’s been here—he has.

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Pro Football Focus graded Sharpe among the top performers of his class last season, noting a number of positives in its scouting report this past spring: 

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Good hands, dropped just seven passes from 204 catchable over the past two seasons. ... Nice footwork as a route runner, helping him catch 77 percent of the passes thrown his way on hitches. ... Big frame that he uses well, catching 73 percent of the passes thrown his way on slant routes in 2015. ... Incredibly productive, admittedly against lesser competition, racking up 2,588 yards between 2014 and 2015 at UMass, and averaging a respectable 2.46 yards per route run. 

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Sharpe will rise in drafts as the hype builds, but given that he's going 101st among wideouts on average, according to Fantasy Pros, netting a cheap price remains viable for those who are willing to take on this rising rookie with a late-round gamble. 

Evaluating Laquon Treadwell and the Rest of the Rookie Receivers

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Laquon Treadwell is buried behind middling veteran Charles Johnson on the Minnesota Vikings' depth chart. While this is subject to change, it's discouraging for his value in redraft fantasy leagues this close to the regular season. 

While being a technician is his calling card, Treadwell hasn't developed much buzz from camp or in the preseason, going without a reception in the team's second game on four targets. Given his top-50 price tag at the position, per Fantasy Pros, you're better off letting someone else take the rookie risk on Treadwell in what is a low-volume Minnesota passing offense. 

The Texans' Will Fuller Could Deliver Big Plays

Fuller is a deep-ball maven in the mold of DeSean Jackson. In fact, speedsters T.Y. Hilton and Tyler Lockett appear as draft comparables for him on MockDraftable. Rating in the 97th percentile in the 40-yard dash among position prospects, Fuller could prove interesting as a stack partner in DFS competition this season. For season-long prospects, we'd only approach Fuller in deeper redraft and dynasty leagues. 

The Bengals' Tyler Boyd Has Interesting Market Share Upside

When we mention market share, we mean the percentage of team passes a player can consume. For the Pitt playmaker, we do like the potential target upside he presents on a Cincinnati Bengals offense that is looking to replace around 150 receiver targets from offseason departures.

We don't love the lack of red-zone upside or verticality from Boyd, so we're only advising managers to keep an eye on Boyd on the waiver wire in the early weeks this season. 

Other Notables

As for a few more notable rookies to consider, the New England Patriots' Malcolm Mitchell is on track to earn starting outside snaps on a top passing offense. We've seen the Patriots thrive without the need for wideout production on the outside, but it's worth keeping an eye on this rising rookie.

Similarly, the Rams' Pharoh Cooper could earn immediate attention and snaps for Los Angeles. The Rams are projected as one of the weakest passing attacks in football. Thus, we're tempering expectations for Cooper but do appreciate his long-term upside.

In Miami, Leonte Carroo could also net immediate snaps, as the team will trend toward three-receiver sets. 

Fantasy history and data used for this article was sourced from an ESPN database.