Indianapolis Colts: Full 2016 Draft Guide and Preview

As the Indianapolis Colts look ahead to the 2016 NFL draft, all eyes turn to general manager Ryan Grigson.

In a surprising development, both Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano received extensions through 2018 back in January, despite a disappointing season that seemed to have both men in danger of losing their jobs. 

Now, the Colts have a mission to rebuild, an odd position after being in the AFC Championship Game just 15 months ago. Still, it's the position the Colts are in, needing playmakers on all sides of the ball in what seems to be a recurring state every April. 

The one benefit for Indianapolis? The team's draft position, owning the 18th overall pick, is the highest pick the team has had (outside of the Andrew Luck, No. 1 overall pick in 2012) since 2002. That was when the Colts selected Dwight Freeney with the 11th overall pick, and he would become the cornerstone of the Colts defense for years to come. 

The Colts need that kind of pick in 2016, a building block that helps lift the team out of mediocrity and sets them on a course for long-term success. Can they do it? For the sake of Grigson and Pagano's jobs, they'll have to. 

Draft Picks

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Draft Picks

Round 1, Pick No. 18 overall

Round 2, Pick No. 48 overall

Round 3, Pick No. 82 overall

Round 4, Pick No. 116 overall

Round 5, Pick No. 155 overall

Round 7, Pick No. 239 overall

What to Know

• The Colts gave up their sixth-round pick in a trade with the Oakland Raiders for LB Sio Moore last offseason. According to Pro Football Focus, Moore played 66 defensive snaps last season, but as of now, projects to contend with Nate Irving for a starting spot. 
• In the last 20 years, the Colts have had six top-20 picks. Those six picks: WR Marvin Harrison, OT Tarik Glenn, QB Peyton Manning, RB Edgerrin James, DE Dwight Freeney and QB Andrew Luck. That's one Hall of Famer (Harrison), one future Hall of Famer (Manning), two fringe Hall of Famers (James and Freeney), a Pro Bowl left tackle (Glenn) and Andrew Luck, one of the best quarterback prospects in recent history. 
• The Colts have 17 of their own draft picks on the roster, including 10 offensive players, six defenders and one special teams member (Pat McAfee). 

Top Needs

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Pass Rush 

Even if Robert Mathis doesn't want to hear it, the Colts are limited in the pass-rush department. Yes, Mathis and Trent Cole have a long, rich history of getting to the passer, but both players are reaching their mid-30s (Mathis is 35, Cole is turning 34 this year). The Colts were 28th in the league in adjusted sack rate last season, according to Football Outsiders, and it's the biggest reason why their defense was so inconsistent. 

Offensive Line 

Anybody who had Andrew Luck in fantasy football last season will immediately tell you that the Colts desperately need to upgrade their offensive line. The line's struggles were primarily blamed for Luck's injuries and struggles last season, and it needs an upgrade at center and right guard.

Now, blame is often overly placed on the line. Luck's injuries seemed to be suffered when tackling a defender after an interception and running outside the pocket, and the line wasn't as bad as some may claim, ranking 15th in Pro Football Focus' year-end rankings.

However, that's not to say the team doesn't need to upgrade the line. The offensive line talent around the league is underwhelming, so finishing 15th isn't anything to celebrate, and it's probably more optimistic than reality. Still, it's a reminder that the need at line isn't as desperate as it may seem, and the need is mainly on the interior.

Inside Linebacker

The loss of Jerrell Freeman in free agency is a more devastating blow than many seem to think for the inside linebacker group in Indianapolis. D'Qwell Jackson, the returning starter, has leadership and run defense value, but is a huge liability in coverage. As he turns 33 this season, it would be unwise to make him part of the long-term plans. Sio Moore and Nate Irving look to be the contenders for the other starting spot, but did little with their opportunities last season. The Colts need young, talented blood in the room, but also immediate impact. 

Secondary

If it seems like the entire defense is on this list, that's because it is. With Luck hopefully returning healthy, the offense has a good chance at returning to high levels. That means the Colts have to take the opportunity to retool the defense in this draft, filling holes that have been left by aging and departing players.

In the secondary, that means holes left by Greg Toler and Dwight Lowery, both of whom were primary starters last season. Safety is quietly one of the most needy positions for Indianapolis with Mike Adams' age (35) and Clayton Geathers' inconsistency concerns. Vontae Davis leads the cornerback group, but he has nobody opposite him to keep opposing teams honest. Patrick Robinson can play outside, but is better suited as a slot corner, and a stud No. 2 early in the draft would give the Colts some needed youth. 

Top Targets

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Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida 

If the Colts want a chance to draft a lockdown cornerback, this is their best shot. The draft has yielded several physical, high-octane cornerbacks in this range in recent years, such as Desmond Trufant (22nd) and Marcus Peters (18th). Hargreaves is talented enough to warrant a top-10 pick, but he has had some off-field concerns that could warrant a drop in stock. 

A phenomenal athlete, Hargreaves possesses the agility, quickness and strength to more than make up for his relative lack of height (5'10"). With ball skills and a competitiveness to rival anybody, Hargreaves is the type of player that could completely change the look of a defense. 

Noah Spence, EDGE, Eastern Kentucky

For a team that struggles with pass rush, Noah Spence could be the answer to Indianapolis' prayers. While he's not an exceptional athlete for the position, he has the bend and speed necessary to beat tackles around the edge at the next level, as well as the hand moves to complement the physical ability. 

Spence doesn't have prototypical length or strength to hold the edge in run defense, but he does have enough to hold his own, and certainly doesn't lack for effort in pursuit down the line or at the point of attack. Though his failed drug tests while at Ohio State did get him kicked out of the Big Ten, he's kept his nose clean over the last year. 

Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama

Over the last 10 years, the centers selected in the first 50 picks of the NFL draft have been a safe bet. Nick Mangold, Max Unger, Eric Wood, Alex Mack, Maurkice Pouncey and Travis Frederick have all been Pro Bowlers. Just two others have been drafted in the top 50 in that period: Stephen Wisniewski (a five-year starter) and 2015 rookie Cameron Erving.

The Colts could use a solid, safe pick in the first round, and that would be Kelly. The value at No. 18 isn't great for a center, but getting a solid starter for a weak position (at worst) can't go wrong. Kelly has the pedigree, athleticism, instincts and leadership to start at center for a long time. If one of the top defenders isn't there at 18, Kelly is an excellent backup plan.

The Latest Rumors

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Matt Miller, Bleacher Report: Ryan Kelly is a Real Possibility 

"

The love for Alabama's Kelly is real, according to decision-makers I've talked to in Indianapolis. Sources on the coaching staff tell me they're not set on taking an offensive tackle at any point in this draft and instead expect to go center and edge-rusher in some order with the first two picks.

"

Not only is this encouraging because of Kelly's talent at a position of need, but it's a great indication that Indianapolis is correctly viewing its own needs in an accurate and efficient manner. Prognosticators have been all over tackles for Indianapolis in this process, but prioritizing the interior line and pass rush is the right move. 

Stephen Holder, Indianapolis Star: Don't Expect Noah Spence to Come to Indianapolis

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So, when you ask me about Noah Spence, my answer was and continues to be I do not expect it to happen. Taking him at his word.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) April 21, 2016"

After Ryan Grigson talked about the risk involved with "character concern" players at his predraft press conference, Indianapolis Star reporter Stephen Holder's impression was that Spence was off the board for the Colts, also citing Grigson's reported policy of skipping over such concerns in the first four rounds.

However, Grigson also mentioned that some of the players with character concerns had been "cleared" after further investigation. If you're a fan of Spence, you're left hoping he is one of those players. 

Jeremy Fowler, ESPN.com: Karl Joseph a Target at Safety?

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From what I've gathered, Steelers and Colts are among the teams that have done the most due diligence on Karl Joseph.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) April 22, 2016"

As mentioned earlier, one of the Colts' biggest, yet little-talked about needs is at safety. The most recent safety classes have been underwhelming, but this year's crop has several promising players, both at the top and in the middle rounds. Karl Joseph has risen lately, but seems to be a late first- or second-round player. 

For Indianapolis, Joseph would be an interesting second-round player. He's a versatile, yet fiery competitor who would be able to step in immediately and give the Colts a boost at either safety position. He does have some medical questions surrounding an ACL injury he suffered early in the 2015 season, but if the Colts' due diligence has soothed fears there, Joseph's the kind of playmaker that would make a noticeable difference in the Colts backfield. 

7-Round Mock Draft

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Here's one example of how the draft could fall for Indianapolis.

Round 1, Pick No. 18 overall: C Ryan Kelly, Alabama

The latest buzz points to Kelly at this pick, and there isn't a rational excuse for why Indianapolis wouldn't want to go in this direction. Kelly would immediately upgrade the Colts line, giving them another cornerstone to put with Jack Mewhort and Anthony Castonzo on the left side. 

Round 2, Pick No. 48 overall: S Karl Joseph, West Virginia

We're going to keep with the trend here and follow the buzz. If the Colts go with Kelly in the first round, they have to find a defensive playmaker in the second round. Joseph would be a fantastic option in that regard, as he's one of the most exciting ball-hawk safeties in this draft. 

Round 3, Pick No. 82 overall: OLB Jordan Jenkins, Georgia

If the Colts go offensive line and secondary in the first two rounds, the team has to look for a pass-rusher in Round 3. Now, perhaps there won't be any left worth drafting. But if Jordan Jenkins is still available, he'd be the perfect pass-rushing wild card to invest in. Jenkins is "safe" as an edge player due to his ability to hold fast at the point of attack and stop the run, but he has developmental athleticism that could prove invaluable as a pass-rusher. 

Round 4, Pick No. 116 overall: RB Devontae Booker, Utah

Some of the most important but overlooked things for a running back in the transition from college to the NFL are vision and a natural feel for how blocks and holes develop. Booker has that natural ability, and throws in efficient quickness and open-field elusiveness to become the full package. He can catch and pass protect as well.

Round 5, Pick No. 155 overall: WR Kolby Listenbee, TCU

Fans won't ever be happy about a wide receiver pick, not after the surprise of Phillip Dorsett in the first round last year. However, the Colts are surprisingly thin at the position, with just T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dorsett on the roster with any kind of real experience or promise. Listenbee would be a great value pick here, a guy who tested well athletically and does a nice job at the catch point down the field. 

Round 7, Pick No. 239 overall: DT Anthony Zettel, Penn State

You can't get out of this draft without selecting a defensive lineman. It's so deep, so chock-full of talent, that at some point a great prospect is going to have too much value to let them slip by. Maybe it won't be Zettel, whose biggest asset is his relentless motor, but somebody will stick out in the late or middle rounds. As for Zettel, well, he's the type of rotational lineman that can come in on passing downs and disrupt the pocket from the interior, or knock down a pass or two.