Daily Fantasy Football November 4: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Two months into the season, daily fantasy players are far less willing to give anyone the benefit of the doubt.

Everyone is entitled to an off day. Maybe even two. When the tumultuous times continue to magnify, DraftKings contestants have to ask if enough is enough and give slumping stars the cold shoulder.

Meanwhile, studs are blossoming, but gamers are reticent to react. Can a quarterback really go from project to phenom in half a season? Can a journeyman tight end become a certifiable superstar in a middling offense? Apparently so. 

Let's take a look at an NFL midweek stock report.

Stock Up

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders ($5,500)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Utilizing Derek Carr in Week 8 seemed ill-advised. The New York Jets, with star cornerback Darrelle Revis ready to silence rookie wideout Amari Cooper, sauntered into the weekend boasting an elite passing defense. The second-year passer had a ways to go before ascending from matchup play to matchup-be-damned play.

The brave souls who used the Oakland Raiders signal-caller watched him compile 333 passing yards and four touchdowns. Cooper had a relatively quiet fantasy outing, but Carr simply targeted Michael Crabtree instead.

Since Week 1's dud against the Cincinnati Bengals, Carr has registered over 23 DraftKings points in four of six games, the two exceptions both against top-five passing defenses. After scoring seven touchdowns over two games, he now has 15 on the season alongside three picks.

His 19.8 DraftKings points per game trails Aaron Rodgers by 0.7 points while beating out Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. He still costs a moderate $5,500.

The Pittsburgh Steelers give him a better outlook heading into Week 9. Despite curtailing scoring to 18.4 points per game, they're also No. 26 in passing defense with no corner to contain Cooper. His recent tear will make him a popular bargain pick in cash contests.

Ronnie Hillman ($4,600) and C.J. Anderson ($4,100), RBs, Denver Broncos

Fantasy value is usually a zero-sum game for running backs sharing touches. On Sunday night, however, Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson both revitalized an ailing Denver Broncos ground game.

Hillman, who looked poised to usurp Anderson as the No. 1 back after a 20-carry, 111-yard game before their bye, turned 19 carries into 60 yards and two touchdowns. Although not an effective performance from a back averaging 4.5 yards per carry in 2015, he received red-zone looks in a suddenly grooving offense.

But before preparing Anderson's fantasy eulogy, he enjoyed his best game of the season by a mile. Averaging 2.7 yards per run before Sunday, he finally jolted through the line for 101 rushing yards and his first touchdown of the season.

Player	Rush	Rush YD	YPC	TD	DK PTS*
Ronnie Hillman	19	60	3.2	2	18.5
C.J. Anderson	14	101	7.2	1	20.6

Even as Hillman gradually invaded the spotlight, Anderson never vanished from Denver's offense. Last year's breakout star has received at least a dozen touches in all but one bout, recording nine in the lone holdover. 

A continued committee will stifle each back's upside, but fantasy players witnessed exactly what they wanted to see from each contributor. Hillman benefited from a heavier workload, and Anderson finally showed a pulse.

The Broncos will look to carry over this progress against Indianapolis' No. 28 rushing defense, giving hope for both rushers to keep producing. Due to his heavier volume, especially near the end zone, Hillman ($4,600) is the safer play than Anderson ($4,100), who still needs to earn back everyone's trust after a disastrous start. 

Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns ($4,800) 

Aaron Josefczyk/Associated Press

Ever since Week 3, when Gary Barnidge's out-of-nowhere breakout seemingly stemmed from Oakland's incompetence defending tight ends, gamers have waited for his unlikely run to end.

They're still waiting. Barnidge has delivered superb fantasy results since Week 2, amassing 36 receptions for 512 yards and six touchdowns through six ensuing games. The Cleveland Browns tight end is averaging 22.0 DraftKings points per game during this outburst. Rob Gronkowski has tallied a 22.7-point average this season.

Rank	Player	REC YD	TD
1	Rob Gronkowski	646	7
2	Gary Barnidge	567	6
3	Travis Kelce	538	3
4	Greg Olsen	518	4
5	Benjamin Watson	472	3

Slow start aside, Barnidge has vaulted into the second-best tight end behind Gronkowski. He's not touchdown-reliant either, tying Gronkowski and Travis Kelce with a position-high 40 receptions. Yet the stud costs $4,800 for Thursday night's tilt with the Cincinnati Bengals, priced behind five other tight ends in a week without Kelce and Jimmy Graham.

In the only game where Barnidge hasn't scored since Week 2, he offered 101 yards on six catches. It makes little sense for a 30-year-old with three career touchdowns before 2015 to suddenly become mini-Gronk with Josh McCown under center, but it's happening. Cincinnati ranks No. 25 in DraftKings points allowed to tight ends, so ride the unlikely wave.

Stock Down

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($7,000)

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Writing about fantasy football with a slight headache is difficult, so having giant, blood-thirsty men chase you while trying to make pinpoint passes can't be easy. Especially with multiple fractured ribs, as Fox Sports' Jay Glazer reported before Monday night's overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Andrew Luck appeared to have turned a corner over the past two weeks, but he regressed against a stringent Panthers secondary. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback surrendered three more interceptions, upping his season tally to an NFL-worst 12. He has relinquished at least two picks in all but one game this season.

According to Pro Football Focus' John Breitenbach, Luck holds the site's worst overall grade among 54 eligible quarterbacks. As noted by Breitenbach, his struggles under pressure—he's probably not keen on getting speared with fractured ribs—have caused several mistakes: 

"

It was obvious last night that Luck was forcing plays under pressure. It’s something he’s been doing all season, reflected in the numbers. Overall, Luck has been accurate on just 48.7 percent of passes under pressure in 2015, compared with 59.8 percent last year. He’s also already thrown as many interceptions when under pressure (six) as he did in the entirety of 2014, with significantly fewer touchdowns (four compared with 11). But the issues are not confined to desperation passes in the attempt to avoid sacks, with another six interceptions coming with a clean pocket. (He leads the league with 12 total picks, and owns the worst accuracy percentage.)

"

Carolina, who has limited opponents to a league-low 5.6 yards per passing attempt, also deserves credit. Shadowed by premier cornerback Josh Norman, T.Y. Hilton caught one of seven targets. The Panthers have collected 12 interceptions with only seven passing touchdowns, and no team boasts a higher interception-minus-touchdown differential.

Unfortunately for Luck, his schedule doesn't get any easier. The Denver Broncos have allowed an NFL-low 171. 9 passing yards per contest, most recently limiting Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards through the air. Following brutal weeks, Hilton and Donte Moncrief will now face Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib. As for Luck's issues with pressure, Denver leads the NFL with 29 sacks. Stay far away from Luck and the Colts this weekend.

Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers ($6,800)

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Remember when Randall Cobb left September with 245 yards and four touchdowns through three games? Filling the void left by an injured Jordy Nelson, the Green Bay Packers wideout looked like a surefire top-10 option, potentially top five under DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring.

In the past four games, he's averaging 4.7 yards per target, combining for a robust 132 receiving yards and no scores. Despite receiving nine looks against the Broncos, he mustered a measly 27 receiving yards.

Week	OPP	REC	TAR	YDS	TD
4	@ SF	5	8	44	0
5	STL	3	6	23	0
6	SD	2	5	38	0
8	@ DEN	6	9	27	0

The 25-year-old slot receiver has registered a career-low 10.5 yards per catch and is on pace for an underwhelming 861 receiving yards as an MVP quarterback's No. 1 option. Due to his hot start and reputation, he remains an expensive $6,800.

He won't face Denver every week, but Carolina isn't any easier. While nobody should press the panic button on Green Bay's offense just yet, Cobb is too expensive to treat as a Week 9 rebound candidate. 

New York Jets, D/ST ($3,100)

Ben Margot/Associated Press

On the flip side of Carr's breakout Week 8, what the heck happened to the Jets? A stout defense got gashed at Oakland, allowing a season-high 451 total yards. The passing game netted the headlines, but Latavius Murray added 113 rushing yards to the beating.

A week after salvaging two DraftKings points against the New England Patriots, the Jets cost gamers a point in a much more desirable matchup. Although they're still ranked No. 3 in total defense behind the Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, those results aren't translating to the fantasy front.

They're averaging 7.0 DraftKings points per contest. Meanwhile, their Meadowlands roommates have posted 9.3 points per bout with the league-worst defense. The New York Giants, however, have benefited from four defensive scores.

Gang Green's struggles will test how much DFS players value recent results. Is the Week 8 bludgeoning enough to fade them against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have shown modest offensive improvement in 2015?

The Jets defense hasn't generated double-digit fantasy points since Week 2, but the Jaguars can help change that. Fueled by Blake Bortles' eight picks, they dole out the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing defenses. Give the Jets a chance to make amends this Sunday.

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