Daily Fantasy Football October 11: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Certainty never graces any week of the NFL season. Heading into Week 5, though, daily fantasy football fiends at least have more reliable data at their fingertips.

Stats can deceive under the guise of a small sample size. Calling the Kansas City Chiefs one of the worst passing defenses seems unfair considering they already faced Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. While nothing is etched in stone after four weeks, trends are at least crystallizing.

Using such matchup data to our advantage, let's look at players either deserving of our attention or cold shoulder for Week 5. 

Stock Up

Chris Thompson, RB, Washington ($3,300)

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

As if Matt Jones didn't create enough confusion in Washington's backfield, Chris Thompson has also emerged as a noteworthy contributor.

Following two uneventful weeks, he registered 86 total yards and a touchdown on two runs and eight catches during Week 3. The following game, he remained involved with 77 yards on six handoffs and two catches.

Pro Football Focus provided a telling tidbit about his Week 4 performance compared to starter Alfred Morris:

While Thompson won't receive a stable supply of carries, he represents Washington's lone pass-catching threat of the running-back trio. That's significant against the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed an NFL-high 42 receptions to the position, per ESPN.com.

He costs just $3,300 on DraftKings, which operates under point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. Use him as a flex bargain in cash contests.

Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers ($4,200)

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

On Monday night, Antonio Gates will return from a four-game suspension. Don't waste any time working the San Diego Chargers tight end back into the fold.

"We'll be excited to have him back in there," quarterback Philip Rivers told the San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken last Sunday. "He helps on the field, he helps us in the locker room, and we've certainly missed him, so that'll be a plus. We're acquiring a Hall of Fame free agent here in about 24 hours."

Rather than recovering from an injury, Gates has spent the last month preparing for Week 5's season debut. For those who have already forgotten, he amassed 821 yards and a dozen touchdowns last season.

A favorable matchup also forebodes a triumphant comeback. The Pittsburgh Steelers have yielded four touchdowns and the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends. Rivers will warmly welcome back his go-to target over the past decade.

DraftKings won't let gamers sneak Gates back as a discount; only six healthy tight ends cost more than his $4,200. If he picks up where he left off last year, he'll prove worth every dollar. 

Cincinnati Bengals, D/ST ($2,800)

The Cincinnati Bengals defense will rise in popularity after the Seattle Seahawks officially ruled out Marshawn Lynch on Friday, per Seahawks.com's John Boyle. Seattle's No. 27 passing offense won't frighten the Bengals without the star running back lurking.

Even before Lynch was ruled out, this matchup offered serious potential. Cincinnati isn't a stout defensive unit, ranking No. 19 in total defense while scoring 7.8 DraftKings points per game. Still, a severe mismatch in the trenches could orchestrate a fantasy bonanza.

Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Dunlap form one of the league's scariest defensive lines. Seattle, meanwhile, has surrendered 18 sacks, one behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the NFL's worst tally. Without a decent line to protect him or a star rusher to keep the defense honest, Russell Wilson is in store for a long day.

Turnovers and defensive scores are often fluky, and thus impossible to confidently predict. A sack is only worth one point, but the Bengals could easily record five or more against the Seahawks, making them an affordable, high-floor unit.

Stock Down

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders ($5,500)

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Derek Carr parlayed back-to-back 300-yard games into immense Week 4 exposure. Unfortunately for his backers, the second-year quarterback fell to Earth with 196 passing yards, two touchdowns and two turnovers. 

One week later, he's the furthest thing from a chalk choice. The Denver Broncos boast the stingiest defense for opposing quarterbacks, surrendering the fewest passing yards, touchdowns and DraftKings points against quarterbacks.

Stat	#	Rank
Pass YD/GM	185.3	1
Pass TD	2	1
YPA	6.0	3

Rather than witnessing a star blossom, Carr might have just capitalized on two strong matchups. The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns rate No. 26 and No. 27, respectively, in DraftKings points allowed to opposing passers. Denver marks the Oakland Raiders' first opponent situated within the top half of that category.

Steer away from Oakland's promising young offense this weekend.

Shane Vereen, RB, New York Giants ($4,200)

Brad Penner/Associated Press

Nobody ever mistook Shane Vereen for a superstar, but the prolific pass-catcher occasionally makes a solid PPR play. He touted those skills early in the season, collecting eight catches for 76 yards in Week 2.

That makes his ensuing stat lines even more infuriating. Two games, zero catches. This is on a New York Giants team in need of options with Victor Cruz hurt and Preston Parker dropping his way out the door. 

They poached him from the New England Patriots to recreate his role as a target for several Eli Manning dump-off throws. Before Week 4's game with the Buffalo Bills, Newsday's Tom Rock wrote about Vereen possibly lining up as a wideout. Guess not.

Until he revives his role as a receiver, Vereen is significantly overvalued at $4,200. Don't waste your time when Todd Gurley costs $100 more.

Anquan Boldin, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($4,400)

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The entire San Francisco 49ers offense has established residency in this section. One of the biggest victims of their decay, Anquan Boldin registered five catches for 28 yards over the last two games. 

If he continues 2015's microscopic pace of 31 yards per game, he'll finish with a career-low 496 yards. The 35-year-old wideout has netted more than 800 yards in each of his last 10 seasons. He's also currently in danger of averaging below 11 yards per catch (8.3) for the first time during his 13-year career.

After fading with the Baltimore Ravens, Boldin notched consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns with the 49ers. Pro Football Focus (per Chris Biderman of Scout.com) noted the steep decline of his pairing with quarterback Colin Kaepernick this season:

"

Per @PFF: Kaepernick has 52.8 QB rating when targeting Anquan Boldin. That number was 102.7 in 2014 and 118.6 in 2013.

— Chris Biderman (@ChrisBiderman) October 5, 2015"

While the Giants have coughed up the league's most passing yards, they rank No. 12 in DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers. Tight ends have caused more problems, with wideouts accounting for one receiving touchdown.

Even if his struggles are merely the misfortune of boarding a sinking ship, Boldin—or anyone on San Francisco—can't be trusted on Sunday night. 

Note: Pricing and scoring info obtained via DraftKings.com unless otherwise noted. 

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