Early Fantasy Football Surprises Most Likely to Continue Strong Starts

With four weeks already in the books, the NFL season has given us plenty of the surprises and unpredictability that make it fun to watch but maddening to deal with if you're trying to manage a fantasy roster (or five).

Plenty has been written about overreaction and why it's not important to give up on or totally bury your top picks, which has proved to be correct in the cases of Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett and Indianapolis Colts running back Frank Gore. Of course, others, such as Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, have yet to return production on such a high investment.

But what about those who've seemingly come from out of nowhere to rise up the fantasy ranks? For all the overreaction about the disappointing players, there's also plenty for the overachievers. Are they really overachieving, or should expectations remain high going forward?

Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman never got many opportunities to show what he could do as a rookie, and it looked like the same might happen when rookie Tevin Coleman opened the season as the team's starter. However, Coleman went down with an injury in Week 2, opening the door for Freeman to become the top fantasy player of the past two weeks.

While Freeman's made the biggest impact, some are taking advantage of fresh starts, such as Green Bay Packers wide receiver James Jones and New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis.

In determining the players for this list, I looked at perceived role heading into the season and how it's changed, such as the rise of Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Leonard Hankerson over veteran Roddy White. I also considered how injury replacements have stepped up and may be tough to supplant, like Freeman and Jones.

It's also important to reevaluate players who came into the season with low expectations, which is why I've changed my opinion on Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.

Let's take a look at the early surprises of fantasy football and highlight those who have the best chance of staying strong and reliable going forward.

James Jones

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It's amazing what a difference being in the right situation can do for your career in the NFL.

Following James Jones' disappointing season with the Oakland Raiders, the team released him in May. He signed with the New York Giants at the end of July. Despite New York's major need at wide receiver and Jones' knowledge of the offensive scheme, the Giants cut Jones before the start of the season. He returned to the Packers soon after.

It didn't take long for Jones to fall back in line with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as he opened the season with four receptions for 51 yards and two touchdowns. He followed that up with a touchdown in Week 2, which happened to be his only catch of that game. The scoring was nice, but for Jones to be considered a reliable weekly starter, that efficiency needed to keep up, which is obviously not easy.

However, when wide receiver Davante Adams aggravated an ankle injury early in Week 3, Jones' role increased, and he rose to the occasion by posting 139 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Adams remained out in Week 4, and Jones had another productive outing with five receptions for 98 yards.

The ankle injury continues to plague Adams, so the door remains open for Jones, and at this point there's no reason to shut it for the undefeated Packers. Jones is a top-12 fantasy WR over the first month and was likely a waiver-wire pickup after Week 1.

Amazingly, Jones leads all Green Bay offensive skill players (besides Rodgers) in snaps. For someone who didn't rejoin the Packers until September after a year away, that shows just how much trust the team has in him. Even if Adams is back soon, Jones may have done enough to keep this significant role and should be no worse than a WR2 going forward.

Devonta Freeman

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As a rookie, with 237 snaps, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman was behind both Steven Jackson (429) and Jacquizz Rodgers (360). Jackson averaged 3.7 yards per carry on 190 carries and was a major disappointment in two years with the team. Rodgers also averaged 3.7 yards per carry but did so on just 58 carries. The Falcons finished 6-10 in the worst division in football.

While we didn't see much of Freeman in 2014 (65 carries, 248 yards, 3.8 yards per carry), his role in 2015 wasn't secure after the team spent a third-round pick on rookie running back Tevin Coleman in this year's draft. Both players battled hamstring issues in the preseason, but it was Coleman who got healthier quicker, so the team tabbed him as the Week 1 starter.

Not even two games into the season, Coleman suffered a broken rib, putting Freeman into the spotlight for the first time as a Falcon. He's done nothing but produce since Coleman's injury, and the Falcons sit at 4-0 with Freeman's play a big reason why.

If you sold high on Freeman because you had enough depth at RB and needed help elsewhere, the move was justified with Coleman's return looming. According to offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, Coleman could be coming back as early as Week 5 against the Washington Redskins, per ESPN's Vaughn McClure.

Because Freeman has been so good, you have to doubt Coleman will immediately be thrust back into a huge role, though you shouldn't expect him to be parked on the bench most of the time either. The Falcons have a good problem with a pair of good backs.

If you're worried about Freeman's role going forward, the absolute worst he drops to is a reliable RB2. However, that may not happen right away, especially if he has another strong week and does so against one of the best run defenses in the league.

Freeman has earned a chance to keep the starting job, so don't be concerned about the presence of Coleman unless Freeman gives the team a reason to get the rookie back involved. Continue using Freeman with a lot of confidence.

Andy Dalton

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If a quarterback opens his career with four straight playoff appearances, it typically signifies a bright future, but in a perfect example of why football is a team game, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has looked like the one piece holding the team back from bigger things. The Bengals are 0-4 in the playoffs under Dalton, and he's thrown just one touchdown to six interceptions in those games.

The hashtag "#BadAndy" has become a staple of Twitter on Sundays, or at least it was until this year. This year, we've seen nothing but #GoodAndy, and it very well may continue for the undefeated Bengals.

Through four games, Dalton has completed 78 of 116 attempts (67.2 percent) for 1,187 yards with nine touchdowns to just one interception and also has 37 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. That makes him the second-best QB in total fantasy points and third-best QB in fantasy points per game.

So will we be seeing more of #GoodAndy, or will #BadAndy rear his ugly head? This week will be a good test, as the Bengals host the Seattle Seahawks. While the Seahawks haven't looked like a dangerous team at 2-2, their defense remains strong and has held QBs to the sixth-fewest fantasy points this season.

Expectations shouldn't be high for Dalton, but if he takes care of the football, the Bengals have enough talent to win a close game and move to 5-0.

Dalton's strength of schedule the rest of the way is the eighth-hardest based on upcoming opponents' fantasy points allowed. That's a concern, but the key for Dalton is he has more weapons than ever. Tight end Tyler Eifert and wide receiver Marvin Jones are healthy and contributing after missing nearly every snap last season.

Jones recently told Jim Owczarski and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, "We're at a point right now where Andy really trusts us to be there, even if we haven't separated from the corner, he knows we're gonna get separation."

Trust is huge and allows Dalton to anticipate throws instead of waiting and telegraphing them. It's a big reason why his turnovers are down and his completion percentage is up.

The schedule may knock Dalton out of the top five at the position, but with Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo and Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger set to miss significant time through their respective clavicle and knee injuries, the fantasy world needs others to perform at a position that doesn't have a lot of depth. Dalton has done that so far and should remain a fixture in fantasy lineups.

Dion Lewis

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New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for being a thorn in the collective sides of fantasy owners because of his unpredictability when it comes to the team's backfield. I've coined these tactics "Belitricks," and they seemed to be getting worse every year—until 2015.

Through three weeks, Belichick has been kind enough to feature running back Dion Lewis extensively enough for Lewis to be considered a weekly starter no matter the format, although he has gotten a bigger boost in PPR leagues, where he's ninth in total points and fourth in points per game.

That's a pretty significant jump from zero points on zero carries and zero yards on zero snaps in the last two seasons.

That's right—Lewis has gone from doing absolutely nothing the last two seasons to being one of the best fantasy running backs through the first month of this season. He missed all of 2013 following a trade from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Cleveland Browns with a fractured fibula and was cut by the Indianapolis Colts in September 2014, and he didn't land anywhere else until the Patriots signed him to a futures contract that December.

This year, he's been on the field for 154 of 228 total offensive snaps (67.5 percent), which leads the team's backfield. Veteran running back LeGarrette Blount, who was suspended for the opener but returned for Week 2, has played just 38 of 167 (22.8 percent) possible snaps in his first two games.

Belichick's running back usage typically varies by opponent, but Lewis has proved to be a very good pass-catcher and a good enough runner to keep himself in the mix no matter what the situation or opponent. That's why the Patriots signed him to a two-year extension, per Field Yates of ESPN. That's a supreme vote of confidence.

Other than the inevitable touchdown vultures from Blount near the goal line, Lewis should remain a reliable fantasy back until further notice. Maybe Belichick does care about our fantasy teams.

Charles Clay

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The Buffalo Bills won the services of tight end Charles Clay following a battle with Clay's old team, the Miami Dolphins. It seemed a bit excessive to fight over a tight end who had just one full season under his belt in four years coming off a year in which knee issues plagued him down the stretch.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Clay's knee was drained at least six times in 2014, and doctors had concerns about his longevity. This report came out after Clay popped up on the injury report with a knee issue heading into Week 1. Clay was active for the opener and caught all four of his targets for 43 yards. Not a bad start—but nothing spectacular.

Clay's fantasy numbers have improved every week since, including nine catches for 111 yards in Week 4 against the New York Giants. After four weeks, Clay is a top-five TE in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game. For a position that's been very short on reliable, weekly starters for years, Clay's hot start is a welcome one.

Injuries to running backs LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Karlos Williams (concussion) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (calf) have made Clay's presence in the offense that much more important, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been able to lean on the veteran tight end as the top option in the passing game.

Even when the Bills get healthier, there's no reason to believe Clay will take a significant step back. After all, the team signed him to a five-year deal with $24.5 million guaranteed. If you've been rolling with Clay, consider that spot in your starting lineup taken care of barring an injury and the team's Week 8 bye.

Leonard Hankerson

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Other than the rise of running back Dion Lewis in New England, the play of Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Leonard Hankerson may be the most surprising through the first month of the season. Much like wide receiver James Jones in Green Bay, Hankerson's production can be tied to his knowledge of the offensive scheme.

Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan reunited with Hankerson in Atlanta during the offseason after the two spent 2011 to 2013 together with the Washington Redskins. Hankerson never had more than 38 receptions, 543 yards and three touchdowns in a season there, but he also had his 2013 season cut short by a torn ACL. That put him on the PUP list to start 2014, and he wound up on the active roster for just one game.

Thanks to his knowledge of the offense, Hankerson came into the season third on the team's depth chart behind Julio Jones and Roddy White and ahead of his most significant competition, rookie Justin Hardy. Hankerson's spot on the depth chart doesn't represent his role in the offense—he's been way better than that and way better than White.

While White actually leads the team's receivers with 235 snaps, he's been an afterthought in the offense behind Jones (218 snaps) and Hankerson (198 snaps). In four games, White has just six receptions for 92 yards and zero touchdowns on 13 targets. Hankerson has 17 receptions for 241 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets.

White denied being unhappy with his role to D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and he may have to live with a diminished role because Hankerson's producing at a high level and the team is undefeated at 4-0.

Much like teammate Devonta Freeman, Hankerson has done everything asked of him and performed at a high level, so there's no reason to believe the Falcons will mess with that.

Hankerson is 29th in total fantasy points at WR, which makes him a strong WR3. That's about where you'd expect him to remain for the most part, and that's worth a spot in your lineup. Expectations can be a little higher in Week 5 when the Falcons face a beatable Redskins secondary that's allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to WRs this year.

Derek Carr

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To go from a fantasy-irrelevant player as a rookie to a fringe fantasy starter just four weeks into his second season shows just how quickly Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has seen his stock rise thanks to the additions of rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper and veteran wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

In 2014, Carr finished the season 20th in total fantasy points, but than was more than 30 points behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who was just in front of Carr at No. 19. His top receivers were Andre Holmes (55th at WR) and Mychal Rivera (17th at TE). Carr took care of the football but almost to a fault, as he averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt while throwing 21 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

Through the first four weeks of this season, Carr is 14th in total fantasy points at QB. His top receivers, Cooper and Crabtree, check in at 16th and 27th respectively in total points at WR. Carr's yards per attempt has shot up to 7.5, and he already has more 300-yard games (two) than he did last year (one).

The biggest concern for Carr is that he has the toughest strength of schedule based on fantasy points allowed for the rest of the season. That starts with a visit from the Denver Broncos in Week 5. No team has been tougher against fantasy QBs and WRs than the Broncos, so expectations must be lowered for Carr, who isn't a recommended play in any format.

The forthcoming games could be rough for Carr and a problem if you're relying on him to keep up his strong start. After the Broncos, the Raiders take a Week 6 bye and come back against the Chargers (eighth-best against QBs) and the Jets (second-best against QBs). If anything, Carr will be battle-tested, and if he comes through with decent numbers, his stock will rise.

The improvements in both his game and the weapons around him signify Carr can remain a fringe starter or at least a high-end backup for the rest of the year. If you don't like his matchup, such as the one against Denver, then stay away from him and see how he does with the biggest challenge of his young career.

I'm a Carr believer, and many more will hop on the bandwagon before the season ends.

Fantasy stats and leaders provided by FantasyPros.com. Snap counts provided by ProFootballFocus.com.