5 NFL Rookies Already Failing High Expectations
As NFL fans marvel at the high level of play from rookies such as the Oakland Raiders' Amari Cooper, Tennessee Titans' Marcus Mariota and St. Louis Rams' Todd Gurley, there are always other former first-round picks who fall on the opposite side of the spectrum.
An NFL truism states at least 50 percent of first-round picks will eventually be deemed busts and never live up to the once lofty goals placed upon them due to their tremendous physical gifts.
Of course, every team and its fans are ignorantly and blissfully unaware of this during draft weekend, because every team drafted exactly the players it wanted all along. Every player is supposed to work out and become future Hall of Fame inductees.
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Clearly, it doesn't work this way.
Every player is evaluated after every game by the coaching staff, and those looking in from the outside shouldn't take a different approach. A weekly assessment provides context of how young players are performing and potential problem areas.
It's never too early to properly assess the play of any individual. Each is being asked to perform and execute part of the team's game plan. As first-round picks, those prospects are usually counted upon early in the career to do so at a relatively high level.
Inevitably, some will argue these struggling players are just rookies who need time to develop. Some of those same players absolutely do and will eventually develop into solid or even star-caliber NFL players.
Others who started strong this season will eventually see a decline in their play over time. It's just the nature of the beast.
But the evaluation never stops.
For example, the New York Giants' Ereck Flowers and New Orleans Saints' Stephone Anthony struggled during the first three weeks of the season, but they weren't included in this list because they showed signs of life with strong performances last weekend.
Of course, injuries are also a part of football. The Chicago Bears' Kevin White, Baltimore Ravens' Breshad Perriman and Cincinnati Bengals' Cedric Ogbuehi haven't played a down because of injuries that predated the regular season.
There were also scenarios where certain first-round picks weren't chosen with the intention of becoming instant-impact performers. The New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals each selected an offensive lineman within the first 24 picks without those prospects being guaranteed playing time this season due to veterans already on the roster. But Andrus Peat, Cameron Erving and D.J. Humphries are important to each team's long-term plans.
As a result, none of these players should be considered disappointments. They've simply been placed in different situations than a typical first-round rookie.
However, multiple recent first-round selections had plenty of pressure placed upon them, and Bleacher Report identified five who disappointed through the first four games of the season.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prior to the regular season, Jameis Winston and Mariota were going to be inextricably tied to each other after being the first and second overall picks in this year's NFL draft.
However, the dichotomy between the two through the first few weeks of play has been eye-opening.
| Player | Mariota | Winston |
| Comp. % | 63.5 | 54.9 |
| Passing Yards | 833 | 965 |
| YPA | 8.68 | 7.26 |
| Passing TDs | 8 | 6 |
| Turnovers | 5 | 10 |
| QB rating | 110.3 | 71.2 |
Despite playing one fewer game due to this past weekend's bye week, Mariota is statistically a better quarterback at the start of his career than Winston is.
The comparison goes beyond what can be found on a stat sheet, too.
Sure, Mariota has experienced mistakes along the way, but the Oregon product has looked calm, cool and collected when he's been on the field with a strong understanding of where he's supposed to go with the ball. The former spread quarterback doesn't appear fazed by NFL defenses or the schemes they have implemented against him.
We can't say the same about Winston. Hall of Fame quarterback Fran Tarkenton took it a step further during an interview Thursday on 620 WDAE in Tampa:
"Jameis Winston, who was supposed to be pro-ready, is not playing at an NFL level at all. And he needs to get his act together.
He's an NFL quarterback. People are playing a lot of money to come to the games. People expect, if you can walk on the field, you're an NFL-ready player or you shouldn't be on the field. And Jameis needs to play better than that because if your quarterback doesn't play at a certain level, your team has no chance to win.
"
Decision-making is the primary culprit in Winston's poor play. Physically, the Heisman Trophy winner has all of the necessary tools to excel in the NFL.
He also displayed a tendency in college to miss underneath coverage, which resulted in multiple interceptions. This hasn't changed much as a member of the Buccaneers.
During last week's performance against the Carolina Panthers, Winston threw four interceptions. Two of those, including the pick-six by Panthers cornerback Josh Norman, displayed poor ball placement. The rookie gunslinger threw those passes behind their intended targets.
A third interception came courtesy of a batted pass at the line of scrimmage.
But Winston's lack of vision once again reared its ugly head when he threw his fourth and final interception.
The neophyte quarterback never saw linebacker Thomas Davis drop into the throwing lane. Instead, he made a predetermined read based on pre-snap coverage to throw the ball to wide receiver Mike Evans.
These mistakes are too prevalent over the course of Winston's three-year starting career (including college) to simply be categorized as "rookie mistakes." They fall firmly in the realm of bad habits.
In order to become the player the Buccaneers originally envisioned, the quarterback's mistakes must come with far less regularity. This hasn't been the case so far, though.
At the very least, Winston is on the field and making some type of impact. We can't say that of every rookie first-round pick.
Trae Waynes, Minnesota Vikings
A year-and-a-half ago, the Cleveland Browns selected Justin Gilbert with the eighth overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft. The Oklahoma State product was the first cornerback off the board. Yet, his status as a top pick and elite prospect didn't help him get onto the field during his rookie campaign.
In order to acquire Gilbert, the Browns swapped picks with the Minnesota Vikings. At the time, the Vikings clearly got the best of the deal when the team selected Anthony Barr one pick later.
Minnesota is experiencing a similar problem this year after selecting cornerback Trae Waynes 11th overall in this year's draft. Waynes, like Gilbert, was the first cornerback off the board in his draft class, yet he can't get in the team's regular defensive rotation.
During the first four games of the season, the rookie has only played 43 of 286 total defensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
Waynes played poorly at stretches during the preseason, which seems to have carried over into the coaching staff's decision to bring him along slowly during the regular season.
"I do expect him to be a very good player in this league," Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said two weeks ago, per ESPN.com's Ben Goessling. "And there's a chance he’ll continue to progress throughout the season. I think he’s got a really good future. We'll just kind of bring him along when he's ready."
A glimmer of hope arose when Waynes was forced into the lineup against the San Diego Chargers due to an injury to Xavier Rhodes.
Waynes played well during his first real taste of NFL action.
The Viking Age's Drew Mahowald provided an example of Waynes' coverage ability:
In the above play, the rookie displayed a good backpedal, kept his cushion, opened his hips, mirrored the receiver and made a play on the ball as it neared.
A week later, however, Waynes served primarily as a special teams player and only received one defensive snap.
Clearly, the coaching staff doesn't completely trust the rookie and is far more comfortable with the veterans—Rhodes, Captain Munnerlyn and 37-year-old Terence Newman—in the lineup.
This is a perfect opportunity for Waynes to learn and develop, but the first-year player's lack of reps within the defensive scheme is a bit alarming due to his draft status and being the first of his position selected.
While Waynes struggles to get on the field, others aren't making much of an impact when they're actually on it.
Danny Shelton, Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns prioritized their porous run defense as needing an upgrade this past offseason. Danny Shelton became the primary solution to fix the problem once the team spent the 12th overall pick on the massive nose tackle.
Four games into a new season, and the Browns are still ranked 31st in stopping the run and dead last in total defense.
Last year, Cleveland surrendered 141.6 rushing yards per game. Currently, opposing teams average 141.5 yards per game against the Browns.
Where's the improvement?
Of course, this doesn't fall entirely on Shelton. After all, breakdowns occur all over the field, and the Browns are particularly poor at setting the edge.
But a first-round, top-12 nose tackle should make far more of an impact than Shelton has, and the rookie agreed with this assessment when asked about his play through four games.
"Nothing really that stands out, and that’s what I want to change," Shelton said, per ClevelandBrowns.com's Andrew Gribble. "I want to be able to look at film and see a different player. That’s what I’m working on this week, just continuing to grow with the defense, grow with the team and look forward to a win."
And Browns defensive coordinator Jim O'Neil agreed with his rookie.
"We want him to pop off the tape when he’s in there," O'Neil said, per Gribble. "He knows that and it's good that he's saying that."
Nose tackles aren't asked to make too many plays. Instead, they're asked to do the dirty work so others around them can make plays. Playing the position is more than just taking up space and fighting double-teams, though.
A nose tackle is asked to set the tone up front by re-establishing the line of scrimmage.
This is where Shelton has consistently failed through four weeks, and it's primarily due to poor technique. The Washington product's pad level on a play-by-play basis is particularly poor.
Below are two examples of Shelton's poor technique.
The first is a standard zone run where the nose tackle was initially popped by the Chargers' guard, D.J. Fluker, and eventually scooped by the right tackle, Joe Barksdale.
Two problems surfaced on the play to create a gaping hole for running back Melvin Gordon.
Shelton was too high. He stood straight up against this block as the example clearly shows. Also, he allowed his shoulders to be turned. A nose tackle must play square down the line so gaping holes aren't created.
Later in the contest, the Browns faced a goal-line situation from the 1-yard line while trailing 20-19 in the fourth quarter. On second down, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers caught the Browns unaware and found tight end John Phillips wide open for a touchdown pass.
None of that was Shelton's concern, but his effort on the play should be.
A first-round nose tackle shouldn't (1) be stood straight up and playing higher than any other player on the defense in goal-line situations and (2) be single-blocked.
Yet, both happened in this case. It doesn't matter if Rivers threw the ball, because the defense still keyed on the run.
Even Browns head coach Mike Pettine acknowledged pad level as a primary area where his nose tackle should improve, per the Akron Beacon Journal's Nate Ulrich:
When looking around the NFL, other rookie nose tackles are simply playing better than Shelton at this time. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chicago Bears' Eddie Goldman, Arizona Cardinals' Rodney Gunter and Indianapolis Colts' David Parry have graded higher than Shelton so far, and none of them were first-round picks.
Sometimes, a team simply overvalues a player due to his position and fit in its system.
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles
Many assumed—obviously, incorrectly—that Nelson Agholor would slide seamlessly into Chip Kelly's offense and be the coach's next 1,000-yard receiver.
After all, the Philadelphia Eagles offense didn't experience any speed bumps transitioning from DeSean Jackson to Jeremy Maclin, and Agholor's physical makeup and skill set were similar to both of the team's previous leading receivers.
It seemed to be a natural fit. Like everything in Philadelphia's season, though, Agholor's performance hasn't exactly gone to plan.
While it might have been unfair to compare the rookie wide receiver to a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber players, his performance through four weeks can be described as underwhelming at best.
Per Pro Football Focus, no other receiver on the Eagles roster has played more snaps this season than Agholor, yet the USC product has only managed seven catches for 100 yards.
| Player | Team | Catches | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Amari Cooper | Raiders | 40 | 339 | 2 |
| Phillip Dorsett | Colts | 8 | 129 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | Redskins | 15 | 117 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | Seahawks | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | Texans | 10 | 202 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | Eagles | 7 | 100 | 0 |
In almost the same amount of time on the field, second-year slot receiver Jordan Matthews has already accumulated 25 catches for 281 yards.
Agholor has only been targeted by quarterback Sam Bradford 16 times, which is fourth-best on the team behind Matthews, running back Darren Sproles and tight end Zach Ertz.
This past weekend, though, the rookie was finally featured more. He caught three passes for 64 yards and made a spectacular one-handed grab, which is provided below by the NFL's official Twitter feed:
Unfortunately, Agholor fumbled the pitch on a reverse on the very next play.
The Eagles eventually lost the contest to the New Orleans Saints, but the rookie didn't hang his head.
"If you put your head in a hole now because you are down, it doesn't really define who you are, it kind of just says you are soft," Agholor said, per Philly.com's Marc Narducci.
The wide receiver hasn't provided the type of presence at outside receiver the Eagles needed. The organization needlessly moved on from its last two leading receivers. Now, the offense remains in neutral with issues at wide receiver as well as quarterback, running back and offensive line.
Sometimes, scheme can't overcome those individuals playing within it.
Malcom Brown, New England Patriots
Before the New England Patriots drafted Malcom Brown, the Texas product was continuously compared to Shelton even though the two prospects didn't present the same skill sets. After being drafted by the Patriots, Brown was then compared to the team's former nose tackle, Vince Wilfork.
When those incorrect narratives are placed within one's mind, unrealistic expectations are built up and held against a prospect.
In all fairness to Brown, he's not a nose tackle like the aforementioned players. Even so, he's not playing well in his own right.
Brown might be listed at 320 pounds, but his strengths as an interior defender don't rely on brute strength or the ability to stack blockers. Instead, the versatile defensive tackle won at Texas with first-step quickness and stellar technique.
At the NFL level, Brown's quickness and technique can be countered, while he still struggles to hold the point of attack.
Below is a Week 3 example against the Jacksonville Jaguars where Brown was completely washed out of the play due to an inability to sink his hips and anchor against a zone run.
First, the rookie lined up as a 3-technique in an under front:
Notice exactly where Brown lined up in relation to the hash marks on the field.
The defender then saw his guard take an inside zone step and followed. The guard quickly picked up Brown, and this is what the block created:
The Jaguars' Zane Beadles easily controlled Brown on this play, which is merely one example of where the rookie tends to struggle.
Overall, few defensive tackles have played as poorly as Brown has to start the season. Pro Football Focus graded the rookie as the 68th-best interior defender out of 71 defensive tackles listed. Brown received such a low score despite only playing 69 snaps through three games. And the area where he's consistently downgraded is against the run.
Brown is not going to make the Patriots faithful forget about Wilfork any time soon.
Onward and Upward
For this group, there is only one way to go. They are all talented, or they wouldn't have been first-round picks in the first place.
The reality of the NFL, however, has now firmly set in, and improvement is needed.
This isn't an indictment of any of these players or their ability to grow as NFL performers, but each needs to work on certain areas of his game in order to realize his full potential.
Winston, Waynes, Shelton, Agholor and Brown simply aren't playing well enough to warrant their previous draft status based on what they've done so far this season.
First-rounders fail to impress every single year. Some never recover from a slow start. Others explode onto the scene later in their rookie campaigns or even a year or two down the road.
They're constantly being evaluated and judged throughout the entire process by their teams and other organizations around the league.
First-round picks are generally expected to contribute from day one. They're the best of the best in their given year. Unfortunately, many fall well short of those expectations even at this point in the season.
Brent Sobleski covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @brentsobleski.
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