Fantasy Football Week 3: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

Some say Sunday mornings during the fantasy football season feel like Christmas. I feel like this analogy only works if we add that it feels like Christmas morning and you still need to shop for three immediate family members and check on the weather in Cleveland.

Only two weeks into the season, and injury and usage stress have already gripped the marketplace. This hobby requires managers to make a series of influential decisions each week based on a variety of shifting scenarios—which often is reduced to important Sunday morning judgements.

This week we find several top veteran tailback investments facing injury issues, while some under-the-radar running backs appear poised for breakout outings.

Join us as we discuss some of the most important injury scenarios, undervalued commodities and streaming defenses with an eye on preparing for Week 3 of the fantasy football campaign. Please feel free to share your Week 3 lineup questions and suggestions in the comments section.

Jared Cook, Doug Baldwin and Bilal Powell Could Shine as Fantasy Sleepers

Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

In the draft room we all dream of dominating every weekend with our top studs, then Week 3 rolls around and we're looking to fantasy free agency for support. Focusing solely on commodities available in at least 50 percent of ESPN leagues, let's discuss three under-appreciated assets for this week.

The Cheapest 15 Touches on the Market This Weekend

Bilal Powell is owned in fewer than 15 percent of ESPN leagues. Meanwhile, early-down bruiser Chris Ivory is ailing, according to ESPN's Kieran Darcy, and is deemed a game-time decision by head coach Todd Bowles.

Consider Powell has played a higher snap percentage than Ivory through two weeks, according to Football Outsiders, and this change-of-pace back becomes a workhorse candidate, facing the Eagles this Sunday.

Even if Ivory is active, Powell's path to total yardage appears smoother. While the Eagles' defense has allowed the third fewest rushing yards per carry this season, a volume of targets in the passing game and expected snap exposure north of 50 percent could buoy Powell's production as a worthy and widely available flex option for Week 3.

Increased Passing in Seattle Benefits Doug Baldwin

Doug Baldwin's 98 targets in 2014 saw him net a 21.7 percent share of Russell Wilson's 452 pass attempts last season. Through two games of the new campaign, Baldwin is currently tied with Larry Fitzgerald and Tyler Eifert among others for 25th in the league in targets this season, even while still consuming a similar slice—Baldwin has been targeted on 22.5 percent of Wilson's throws in 2015.

Increased overall passing volume from Wilson, as he's pacing toward a career-high 568 attempts, inflates Baldwin's statistical stock enough to be considered a worthy flex option in PPR formats. Baldwin will rarely wow with massive games, but steady lines appear reasonable given sustainable usage in the eye of a more pass-heavy approach.

The Bears allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to receivers last season, and only the Chiefs have been more generous to the position so far this season. With a sustainable share of the Seahawks' passing offense, while still available in more than half of ESPN leagues, we should be aware Baldwin has never been a big fan of his doubters.

With the Steelers Soft Against Opposing Tight Ends, Jared Cook Could Shine

The St. Louis Rams' receivers have 12 receptions and 150 yards, tying their receivers for 32nd in the NFL with the Chiefs in catches while claiming sole possession of 31st in yardage.

The Rams have targeted their tight ends 16 times this season, tied for 10th in the league. Jared Cook is owned in just 22 percent of ESPN leagues at the moment, yet he's tied for the Rams' lead in targets with 12 and is seventh among NFL tight ends in yards per game (66). The Steelers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends (using ESPN standard scoring) since the start of the 2014 season.

With such lackluster wideouts, with a game script that could trend pass-heavy to keep pace with the Steelers' elite offense, Nick Foles could afford Cook a strong share of the passing offense in a game with the second-highest projected point total of the week.

Vegas Offers Some Streaming Defensive Options for Week 3

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

I previously wrote about how we can leverage Vegas lines and point totals in seeking streaming D/ST options. The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

As I wrote in that piece, "The average point total out of Vegas last season was 46.3 points per game. Using 46.5 as a benchmark for this strategic angle, I studied the results of fantasy defenses when favored in games with points totals under 46.5."

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold found themselves top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. A simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept can be found below: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: In the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units 49 percent.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

The suggested takeaway is to use this tool to eliminate some D/ST units from consideration given foreboding Vegas trends. We can also use this formula to help identify under-appreciated assets, like the Atlanta Falcons this week. As previously noted, "If Vegas has a team getting points, it's not as likely they'll produce a strong sum of D/ST fantasy points."

The Falcons D/ST faces Brandon Weeden—a signal-caller who ranks dead last in QBR among the 41 NFL quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts since 2012 and is one of just six quarterbacks in that group to have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns over that span.

As slight road favorites this isn't the cleanest of calls, but given the Falcons' recent success in stuffing opposing backfields—Atlanta has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards to backs since the second half of last season—the game could conceivably be placed in Weeden's right hand.

As favorites in a game with a tellingly low point total, the Falcons (owned in just five percent of ESPN leagues), make for a fine 12-team league streaming option.

Similarly, the Cleveland Browns host the Oakland Raiders in a contest with one of the week's lowest projected point totals. The Browns have held opposing arms to the sixth-lowest QBR and yards per attempt since the start of last season. While the Raiders' passing game took flight versus a reeling Ravens secondary, Joe Haden and the Browns' D/ST is positioned to produce.

Going Bold: Rookie Runner T.J. Yeldon Tops 100 Yards While John Brown Explodes

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

We hope you like your bold predictions extra bold and potentially caustic. After hyping Mike Evans for a strong Week 2, we've already earned your trust. This week, let's see if a rookie running back can overcome game flow fears while a speedy sophomore wideout has a monster week.

T.J. Yeldon Will Top 100 Yards Rushing While Providing Top-10 Fantasy Production

The Jaguars' rookie running back is 41st in the league in yards per carry, but tied with Jamaal Charles for sixth in the league in carries on the season. Such volume for a rookie is rare these days, but in breaking down Yeldon's value on the daily fantasy marketplace for ESPN, I found some inviting trends for Yeldon's Week 3 upside:

"

I'm not fading Yeldon based on the Jaguars' status as massive road dogs in New England this weekend. For one, his low price bakes in all inherent game-flow risks the spread suggests. ... Even while pacing opponents on the scoreboard for much of the young season already, the Patriots have allowed the most rushing yards per carry in the league (5.65), allowing 132 total yards to DeAngelo Williams in Week 1 and 5.9 yards per carry to an ailing LeSean McCoy in Week 2.

"

Widely considered a flex option, at best, don't be surprised if Yeldon produces more than 100 yards and a score, even in the face of expected defeat.

John Brown Finally Breaks Out for Investors with a Top-Five Fantasy Day

ESPN Stats & Info informs us "Ben Roethlisberger was 5-of-6 for 239 yards and a TD on throws more than 30 yards downfield in Week 2 versus the 49ers, the most such completions in a game in the past 10 seasons."

The Cardinals host this very same 49ers secondary on Sunday, with John Brown netting a 22 percent share of the Carson Palmer-led passing game that has the Cardinals receivers averaging a healthy 10.98 average depth of target on the season.

A propensity for vertical patterns given deep speed that rates in the 96th percentile among receivers prospects since 1999, according to Mock Draftable, Brown is about to turn all those pass interference flags into touchdowns. In order to keep this in the bold category, I'll project Brown to have a top-five fantasy score at the position this week.

Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch Among Top Injury Concerns for Week 3

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

With multiple major tailback talents ailing this week, what can investors do in each specific scenario?

Eddie Lacy's Owners Must Own James Starks or Need to Look Elsewhere

ESPN's Rob Demovsky recently reported Eddie Lacy is officially questionable with his ankle injury for Monday's home tilt with the Chiefs. After limited participation in the team's past two practices, things are surely better than the foreboding early vibe on Twitter last Sunday night when Lacy suffered the injury.

The only real path to security for those with Lacy shares would be having James Starks, who has proven capable in approximating a worthy percentage of Lacy's upside before, ready if Lacy is deemed inactive closer to kickoff.

As we all know, official word on Lacy won't come until Monday, so uninsured shares of Lacy seem risky. With Lacy looking more likely to play, we could see a defeating share of the Packers' backfield workload unfold. Starks was known to share the backfield workload last season when Lacy was dinged. In any leagues I have shares of Lacy, I'm trying to best weigh his usage upside versus my top alternatives.

With Marshawn Lynch a Game-Time Decision, Fred Jackson Could Be Primed to Produce

ESPN's Sheil Kapadia reported Lynch's status remains murky and will be a game-time decision for what is an assuredly sweet setup versus a reeling opponent. Lynch would be the chalk play in daily fantasy and arguably the top option for Week 3 without the calf concerns.

Fred Jackson is available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues and presents as an ideal bottom-dollar investment in daily play and a strong flex option in redraft leagues if Lynch were ruled out. Whoever gets the nod should feast on a Bears front that is allowing 124 rushing yards per game on the young season.

Should Chris Ivory's Owners Look to Bilal Powell in a Pinch?

With early-down workhorse Chris Ivory ailing and questionable for Sunday's home game versus the Eagles, according to ESPN, the Jets' backfield could see change-of-pace specialist Bilal Powell earn double-digit touches.

Powell, in fact, leads the team's backfield in snaps so far this season thanks to heavy deployment on passing downs. In any form of PPR format, it appears Powell (available in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues), is the safer call than Ivory's goal-line dependent scoring pattern

DeMarco Murray Should Play, but Should We Play Him?

According to ESPN's Ashley Fox, Murray will play in Sunday's game versus the Jets. With the Eagles' rushing offense proving so amazingly ineffective, should we trust Murray assuming he starts on Sunday?

In standard formats it's difficult to project Murray as much more than a low-end RB2 or a flex option. In any PPR format, we should consider that Murray is tied with Danny Woodhead, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte at sixth among backs with 4.5 receptions per game in 2015. In such formats, I'm still considering Murray a RB2 option given the Eagles' propensity for passing at the line of scrimmage.

Fantasy info courtesy of ESPN.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. Google docs use numbers from ESPN.com.