Fantasy Football Week 3: Making the Call on Toughest Lineup Decisions
Like the Oakland Raiders in the fourth quarter (sorry Baltimore fans), it's time for fantasy owners to make a comeback.
Week 2 was a mess for everyone, perhaps no better personified than the Raiders downing the Baltimore Ravens. Or a guy named Crockett Gillmore outscoring Rob Gronkowski. Or Johnny Manziel helping to make a star out of Travis Benjamin.
Owners get the idea. The show goes on, though. It's time for owners to face the most difficult Week 3 lineup decisions head on. There are injuries, matchups and more to consider, so it's best to get to work as early as possible.
Within is a breakdown of some of the most popular dilemmas owners will face in the coming days.
START Cam Newton vs. New Orleans Saints
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Some quarterbacks don't need quality wide receivers to post respectable fantasy numbers.
It appears Cam Newton may be one of those guys despite the fact his starting wideouts are Ted Ginn and Corey Brown. Newton and the Carolina coaching staff got tight end Greg Olsen involved last week, helping him produce 26 points to help owners forget a miserable 12-point outing to start the season.
So far, Newton has relied on his legs to produce. Such an approach might change with the New Orleans Saints in town, though. The visitors tout a unit that has allowed 501 yards and four scores through the air in just two games.
It's understandable if owners shy away from Newton given his surrounding cast. But the Saints are too sweet of a matchup to pass up, especially after Tampa Bay rookie Jameis Winston found his way to 18 points against the unit.
Projected Week 3 Stats: 18-of-25, 200 passing yards, one touchdown. 15 carries, 65 yards, one touchdown.
SIT Matthew Stafford vs. Denver Broncos
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Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford hasn't done a ton for fantasy owners so far this year, going for 13 and 19 points in his first two games.
The 19 points against Minnesota don't wow when one realizes he had to attempt 53 passes to reach the total. To make matters worse, he had to receive x-rays on his ribs and chest after the contest.
All indications are Stafford will play, but he's beat up heading into a bad matchup. The Denver Broncos tout a borderline elite defense this year, holding Joe Flacco of Baltimore and Alex Smith of Kansas City to a combined four points.
Granted, those two aren't the best quarterbacks in the league by any means, but Von Miller and Co. are going to get after Stafford all day long and cause some issues. Stafford needs to be on every bench this week.
Projected Week 3 Stats: 19-of-30, 220 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions.
START LeSean McCoy at Miami Dolphins
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Before the season, nobody was really sure how LeSean McCoy would produce with the Buffalo Bills.
Now a hazy idea seems to stick out—he's going to produce just fine from a yardage standpoint, but backs such as Karlos Williams and Anthony Dixon and even quarterback Tyrod Taylor will hawk carries down near the end zone.
Case in point: Shady hasn't scored yet this season, but he did have a rebound performance in Week 2 with 10 points. Next up is a Miami Dolphins defense that allowed 15 points and 160 rushing yards to Washington in Week 1 before a cupcake matchup with Jacksonville.
McCoy won't have any issues racking up the yardage against the Dolphins, especially after he put any health concerns to bed in Week 2. If he can break a big run, McCoy will for the first time look like the RB1 everyone expects him to be.
Projected Week 3 Stats: 21 carries, 112 yards, one touchdown.
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SIT Bishop Sankey vs. Indianapolis Colts
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It looks like the train has left the station, folks.
Tennessee Titans back Bishop Sankey looked like one of the season's breakout stars after a 20-point outburst in Week 1 with two total touchdowns. He followed up, though, with just four points in Week 2.
Bishop saw just two targets in the game against Cleveland and carried it 12 times, watching as Dexter McCluster rushed 10 times for 98 yards as the Titans attempted to play from behind.
Which is the problem with a showdown against the Indianapolis Colts. Tennessee figures to play from behind again with Andrew Luck in town no matter how iffy the Colts have looked so far this season.
The situation makes Sankey a sit candidate and McCluster a sleeper. Sankey will see better matchups and is worth hanging onto, but the Colts look like a tough draw.
Projected Week 3 Stats: 14 carries, 55 yards.
Start C.J. Anderson at Detroit Lions
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Through two games, Denver's C.J. Anderson has been one of fantasy football's biggest busts.
Thanks to health issues, an iffy offensive line and tough matchups, Anderson has all of five points total. Now Anderson enters now-or-never time, as the Broncos might look to make a change if the starter doesn't produce in Detroit this weekend.
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post broke down the situation:
"Anderson figures to have one more game to secure the starting job. At this point, any evaluation is complicated, if not unfair. Anderson is battling through toe and ankle soreness. He says he's fine, because he's tough like that. But he has received no help from the struggling offensive line. Some of his best runs have been making tacklers miss in the backfield for a 1-yard gain.
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Owners will want to take advantage of what might be Anderson's last chance to impress. Going against Baltimore and Kansas City defenses to start the season wasn't the best environment for his production.
Detroit looks like a much better matchup. The Lions surrendered 23 points to San Diego backs to start the season, then turned around and let up another 22 to Minnesota's backfield. With the Lions focused on Peyton Manning, Anderson should have plenty of room to run against a soft defense.
Projected Week 3 Stats: 17 carries, 89 yards, one touchdown. Four catches, 35 yards.
SIT Doug Martin at Houston Texans
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One of the better sleeper picks before the season, Doug Martin just hasn't lived up to expectations in Tampa Bay.
Martin finished with five points in Week 1, then turned around and lost a fumble in New Orleans, keeping him at just seven on the day. In the process, fellow backfield member Charles Sims continues to eat up playing time on pass-catching downs.
In other words, Martin is a no-go against Houston. The Texans allowed 17 points to backs to start the season, but so it goes against Jamaal Charles. Last week the unit allowed just nine to Arizona.
It would be one thing if owners could guarantee Tampa Bay secures the lead this weekend and pounds the rock. But such a scenario isn't a sure thing, especially on the road with a rookie quarterback under center against a team led by J.J. Watt.
Martin will have his huge games this year. The odds just don't smile on this week.
Projected Week 3 Stats: 20 carries, 69 yards.
START Mike Evans at Houston Texans
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Just stick with the Buccaneers, though, because there is a sneaky high-value play on the docket for owners thanks to wide receiver Mike Evans.
Owners will remember Evans as the explosive rookie who posted 68 catches for 1,051 yards and 12 scores last season. He missed the team's opener this year with an injury and then played little in Week 2.
Going into Week 3, the training (or rehabilitation) wheels come off for the elite wideout.
“Yeah, I’m looking forward to it,’’ Evans said, per Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune. “I mean, as far as the pitch count goes, we won so I really don’t care. Obviously, I want to play, but it happened and I know I’ll play more this game, so I’m excited about it.’’
Free of a pitch count, Evans gets to tackle a Houston defense that just let the miserable Carolina wideout corps go wild with nine grabs for 124 yards and two scores, or 23 points. He's in for a major game.
Projected Week 3 Stats: Eight catches, 112 yards, two touchdowns.
SIT Steve Smith vs. Cincinnati Bengals
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It looks like it's boom-or-bust time for Steve Smith at this point in his career.
Expect a bust in Week 3.
Smith caught just two passes in Denver to start the season, struggling against a quality secondary while the offensive line failed to give Joe Flacco enough time to get rid of the ball. Oakland was a much better matchup in Week 2 despite the loss, as Smith caught 10 passes for 150 yards and 15 points.
The lesson? Smith is a matchup-based play from here on out.
This means an AFC North showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals is a no-fly zone for owners. The Bengals kept Amari Cooper and Co, in check Week 1 with just eight points, then followed by bottling up Keenan Allen of San Diego with just two catches on four targets.
Cincinnati excels at getting pressure and bottling up No. 1 wideouts, so this is a nightmare scenario.
Projected Week 3 Stats: Five catches, 55 yards.
START Tyler Eifert at Baltimore Ravens
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Someone who doesn't qualify as a matchup-based play in the Cincinnati-Baltimore encounter?
Cincinnati tight end Tyler Eifert, who sits second only to Gronkowski in scoring through two games thanks to his 32 points. Eifert has three scores in the process as quarterback Andy Dalton's new favorite target.
It's not a trend that will change. Defenses throw everything they have at stopping A.J. Green, leaving Eifert open to expose linebackers and safeties who just can't run with him or get up high enough to defend lobs.
So while the Baltimore defense kept Denver and Oakland tight ends in check, owners might even be hard pressed to name who those tight ends are (Owen Daniels and Mychal Rivera, for the curious).
Eifert is unlike anything Baltimore has seen this year, and it applies to most of the teams in the league. He's a lock to produce.
Projected Week 3 Stats: Seven catches, 89 yards, one touchdown.
SIT Eric Ebron at Denver Broncos
10 of 10
Detroit second-year tight end Eric Ebron looks great, like the player many thought he could be when the team drafted him at No. 10 in the 2014 draft—hence his ownership percentage jumping by 25 to sit at 43.2.
For those smart enough to grab Ebron, just understand he needs to sit out in Week 3.
Ebron has scored once in each game already, but a matchup with Denver and a banged-up Stafford doesn't bode well for his outlook. The Broncos have looked great against tight ends, shutting down the upstart Gillmore with two points in Week 1 and the dominant Travis Kelce with five in Week 2.
As great as Ebron has looked, he's nowhere close to Kelce level yet. Look for Ebron to post a dud, which is a good thing for those who can see it coming and scoop him up off the market anyway. He's going to have a big season as a whole, but Week 3 won't be one of the high points.
Projected Week 3 Stats: Four catches, 44 yards.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as is points-against info and ownership stats as of September 24. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.
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