Fantasy Football 2015: Buying or Selling Top 'Sleeper' Plays

Value is the name of the game in fantasy football.

OK, so the name of the game is actually fantasy football, but value is the key to success—to victory. It's important to find players who are set to vastly outperform their draft-day asking price.

To that end, there's no shortage of information available to fantasy owners. There are countless lists of players whom fantasy pundits have singled out as potential targets in 2015.

Some call them "sleepers." Others simply call them undervalued.

Are these players really the sorts of values who can take a fantasy squad to the proverbial promised land, or are they fool's gold set to lead fantasy owners astray?

Let's take a look by buying or selling the 2015 prospects of some of this season's trendiest "sleeper" plays.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Heading into the 2014 NFL draft, the stock of Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater took quite a beating. Bridgewater's pro day was a disaster, leading many draftniks to dissect his game like he was a rat in biology class.

His hands were too small. His arm wasn't strong enough. His views on the World Bank weren't in step with the latest economic existentialists.

OK, I may be making that last one up.

However, Bridgewater improved steadily as his rookie season progressed. He finished 2014 third in completion percentage on passes of more than 15 yards. And with the Vikings adding wide receiver Mike Wallace in free agency (and getting running back Adrian Peterson back), Craig Williams of the Sporting News expects Bridgewater to continue to ascend in Year 2:

"

The Vikings are quietly putting together a stout offense, and Bridgewater is a solid bet to climb into the top 12-15 range at QB while he leads it. With respectable running ability to go along with his developing passing skills, he could hit the 4,000-total yard plateau in Year 2.

"

Add it all together, and he is squarely on the "sleeper" radar this year for fantasy owners who like to wait before drafting a starting quarterback.

Verdict: Buy

According to the average draft position data at Fantasy Pros, Bridgewater is presently the 18th quarterback off the board. He's being selected (on average) in the 12th round as a mid-range backup.

And savvy fantasy owners should be all over him at that price.

In Wallace, Bridgewater has one of the NFL's most capable deep threats. With Peterson back in the fold, opponents are going to be forced to pay a lot more respect to the Vikings' run game than last year.

If opposing safeties are close to the line to help out against Peterson, they can't be the last line of defense against Wallace torching them deep. And Bridgewater showed last year he's more than capable of hurting teams vertically.

Throw in a Norv Turner offense predicated on doing just that, and I'll go Williams one better.

A top-10 fantasy finish for Bridgewater in 2015 wouldn't be a shock at all.

Darren McFadden, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Last year, the Dallas Cowboys rode one of the NFL's most potent running games to their first NFC East title since 2009.

The Cowboys' road-grading offensive line is still there, but running back DeMarco Murray, who led the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards last year, is not—he bolted for the Eagles in free agency.

The Cowboys raised more than a few eyebrows when they didn't exactly go nuts replacing Murray. The team did, however, add a couple of running backs, including seven-year veteran Darren McFadden, who has long been the bane of fantasy owners everywhere.

However, at least one fantasy expert thinks McFadden is set to break out in a huge way in 2015. At the recent Fantasy Sports Trade Association Conference in New York, pundits gathered for the FSTA league draft, which features some of the industry's biggest names.

In that draft, McFadden was selected in the second round.

Yes, you heard me right. Round 2. The round immediately following Round 1.

Verdict: Sell

To say that Dr. Roto of Scout.com was a bit taken aback by this development would qualify as one whopper of an understatement:

"

Darren McFadden went in the SECOND ROUND!!! Unreal!! Everyone seems to think that anyone can run behind the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line and get 1,500 yards. First of all, that is complete nonsense. Secondly, it is disrespectful to DeMarco Murray, who had a terrific year. And finally, DMC cannot stay healthy. I would have thought this was a clever pick in the sixth round, not the second.

"

The Doc isn't alone. In fact, I wouldn't touch McFadden in the sixth round, much less the second.

He has made it through all 16 games in a season all of once. The 27-year-old hasn't averaged even 3.5 yards a carry since 2011. And it's been Joseph Randle, not McFadden, who's been running with the first-teamers in OTAs.

Because McFadden is (gasp!) already nursing a sore hamstring.

Other than that though, he is a great pick.

C.J. Spiller, RB, New Orleans Saints

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Like McFadden, C.J. Spiller has long been a source of great consternation for fantasy owners.

It has been an annual rite of passage in fantasy football ever since Spiller gained nearly 1,700 total yards for the Buffalo Bills in 2012. Every year, some poor fantasy owner would reach for Spiller, hopeful for a repeat.

And every year, that fantasy owner would be disappointed. In 2014, Spiller missed almost half the season, touched the ball less than 100 times and posted the worst yardage totals since his rookie season.

Spiller switched teams in the offseason, joining the New Orleans Saints. And Ryan Bonini of USA Today believes that change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered:

"

A few months ago, I would have told you I would never own Spiller again. Sometimes a clean slate can do wonders for both the player and the fantasy perception of said player. I have no problem targeting Spiller as a must-own target in 2015.

"

Could 2015 be the year Charlie Brown finally kicks the football?

Verdict: Buy

Per the average draft position data at Fantasy Pros, Spiller is being selected as a high-end fantasy RB3. And at that price, I'm all over him in 2015.

It's never been a matter of talent with the 27-year-old. Back during Spiller's breakout season in 2012, he led the NFL in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating, which "boils down a runner's success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers."

In fact, Spiller's 94.6 rating was the highest PFF has ever awarded.

Also, as Bonini pointed out, Spiller slides into a favorable fantasy role as the heir to Pierre Thomas' passing-down back job with the Saints:

"

Spiller will step right in and contribute in a pass-catching, hybrid role. Expect the Saints to move him around, shifting him outside to receiver to create defensive mismatches. He might score five or six PPR points weekly on receptions alone. It’s realistic for him to catch 80-plus passes, which is strong RB2 value in PPR formats.

"

Yes, Mark Ingram is still the lead back in New Orleans. And he will all but certainly lead the team in carries.

However, if Spiller can stay healthy, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see him actually out-touch Ingram, who is going much earlier in drafts.

If that occurs, Spiller has the potential to be the sort of staggering value that wins leagues.

Charles Sims, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a dark-horse playoff pick in many circles last year in Lovie Smith's first year as head coach. Instead, they imploded in spectacular fashion, winning all of two games.

That implosion was due to, in part, to a ground game that ranked 29th in the National Football League at only 85.9 yards per game.

With a rookie quarterback set to take the reins for the Buccaneers in 2015, Tampa will need that ground game to get better, and Brandon Gdula of NumberFire thinks that could pave the way for an uptick in production from second-year pro Charles Sims.

"Grabbing a player with a chance to have a starting role and whose average draft position is nearly 130 is always a welcome investment— even if his ceiling is capped in his rebuilding offense while he contends for carries early in the year," Gdula wrote.

Sims tallied 185 yards on the ground for the Buccaneers as a rookie, chipping in another 190 yards on 19 catches in eight games.

Verdict: Sell

The problem with investing in Sims this year in fantasy football is simple—apparently someone forgot to tell Doug Martin that his days as the Buccaneers' lead back are finished.

With Martin, who has posted back-to-back down years after a huge rookie season, heading into a contract year, the 26-year-old has responded in a big way, according to Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune:

"

Martin had his best offseason in three years, and the upswing in his play could not have come at a better time. Charles Sims is good enough to start and he’ll push Martin hard for the bell-cow role. But the Bucs are probably better with Martin in the lead, Sims filling a third-down pass catcher’s role and Bobby Rainey backing up both.

"

Sure, much could change between now and September, but right now Martin in the eighth round is looking like a much better draft-day investment than Sims in the 10th.

David Cobb, RB, Tennessee Titans

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Last year, the Tennessee Titans made Bishop Sankey the first running back selected in the 2014 NFL draft, at No. 54 overall.

Things didn't work out as planned. Sankey plodded his way to 3.7 yards per carry, and the Titans went back to the drawing board in this year's draft, picking Minnesota tailback David Cobb with the second pick of the fifth round.

Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com wrote recently that he feels the 5'11", 225-pounder could be in line for a big role in his first NFL season:

"

Bishop Sankey started only nine games last season, but he wound up with 58 more carries than anyone else. Cobb could wind up in a similar situation this season. The Titans intend to be a committee, but Cobb is the better inside running option and should be the guy in short-yardage and goal line situations. The starter? I don’t know that it matters. Sankey is in line to be better than he was as a rookie, but Cobb should get a good deal of work and depending on the game, he could be the first back they turn to.

"

Fantasy owners in early drafts don't appear overly impressed, however, as Cobb isn't among the first 50 running backs taken on average, per the ADP info at Fantasy Pros.

Verdict: Buy

Listen, I'm not going to sit here and predict that Cobb will be a world-beater as a rookie—a top-20 fantasy performer who will turn leagues on their heads given his non-existent asking price in drafts right now.

Not to mention, even if Cobb does lead the Titans in carries, we're talking about a Tennessee team that ranked 29th in total offense and 26th in rushing last year—a team that will be led by a rookie "project" quarterback in Marcus Mariota in 2015.

Still, there's no escaping that Sankey was mostly awful last year, including ranking as the fifth-worst tailback in the NFL in pass protection, per Pro Football Focus.

Cobb will have every chance to win the lead back role, and it isn't often you can draft a No. 1 running back in the 12th round.

Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

We'll stick with the rookies for a bit.

With the departure of Torrey Smith in free agency, the Ravens were left in a bind at wide receiver. Yes, Steve Smith Sr. got off to a white-hot start in his first season with the team last year, but he tailed off in a big way over the season's second half and is 36 years old.

The Ravens were aggressive in addressing that need in the 2015 NFL draft, selecting Central Florida speedster Breshad Perriman in the first round.

The 6'2", 212-pounder wasted no time making an impression on quarterback Joe Flacco, according to Garrett Downing of the team's website: "I’m happy with Breshad. He looks really good. He looks big, powerful, runs well. His hands look like they’re really good. He looks like he has big, strong hands. He snatches the ball out of the air."

Fantasy owners appear to be a bit more skeptical, at least to this point. According to Fantasy Pros, Perriman is being drafted as a middling WR4 in 12-team fantasy football leagues, with an ADP in the 10th round.

Verdict: Sell

There's no question that Perriman is fast. Blazingly so. The problem is that while he runs like a deer, he also, well, catches like a deer.

Drops were a major issue for him at Central Florida, and as Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun reported, Perriman's issues holding onto the ball reared their head early in OTAs: "The speedy first-round pick arguably had his roughest practice Tuesday since joining the Ravens, as he dropped four passes, including one deep sideline pass after he had sprinted past cornerback Jimmy Smith and was wide open."

This isn't to say that Perriman can't improve in that regard, or that the youngster is a lost cause.

But Perriman's ADP is higher than that of Smith, Anquan Boldin of the San Francisco 49ers, Marques Colston of the New Orleans Saints and Pierre Garcon of the Washington Redskins.

Those players have all shown the ability to, um, catch the football at the NFL level.

Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

It's rookiepalooza!

Like the Ravens, the Philadelphia Eagles lost a wide receiver in free agency, with Jeremy Maclin joining former head coach Andy Reid in Kansas City. Like the Ravens, the Eagles filled that hole in the first round of the 2015 draft, selecting USC's Nelson Agholor.

And like Breshad Perriman, Agholor wasted no time impressing his new teammates. While speaking with Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News, Eagles wideout Jordan Matthews said he expects Agholor will fit right in:

"

We've got a nice, young group of guys. The talent jumps off the board with Nelson; the dude's one of the most explosive guys on the team already. His work ethic speaks for itself. I think we're real compatible. I love spending time with the guy, not just here, but outside of football. Great personality. I know the city's going to love him.

"

Agholor caught 104 passes for 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Trojans in 2014.

Verdict: Buy

Agholor has actually drawn comparisons to the departed Maclin, and with a relatively clear path to Maclin's spot in the starting lineup, Jon Moore of RotoViz thinks the sky is the limit for Agholor in 2015:

"

I’ve written before that I think about NFL success as a three-part equation that hinges on opportunity, athleticism and production. For Nelson Agholor, there’s a real chance that he could see 100+ targets as a rookie. His athleticism, if not elite, is still on par with the NFL’s top smaller receivers. Finally, his college production was multi-faceted, precocious, and significant. Opportunity knocks for Nelson Agholor and if we can see past his non-prototypical measurables, we might find a guy who can challenge Amari Cooper to be the top-performing rookie receiver.

"

Granted, this isn't to say that Agholor is going to post top-10 numbers in points-per-reception fantasy football leagues a la Maclin a season ago, but in Chip Kelly's high-octane offense, a WR2 finish isn't outside the realm of reason.

And with an ADP of WR38 at Fantasy Pros, that would make Agholor quite the value this season.

Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

It's been an interesting offseason in the City of Brotherly Love.

Running back LeSean McCoy was traded. So was quarterback Nick Foles. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin left in free agency. Offensive lineman Evan Mathis asked for a new contract and got his walking papers instead.

As tight end Zach Ertz told Geoff Mosher of CSN Philadelphia, one thing has become abundantly clear: It's Chip Kelly's way or the highway. 

"If you go against Chip, I’ve think we seen...if you don’t buy in, we’ve seen what happens," Ertz said. "Not to say that as a threat in any way, but we want guys that love the process each and every day, whether it's June 1 or January 1 or February 6, whatever day the Super Bowl is."

The 24-year-old Ertz caught 58 passes for 702 yards and three touchdowns in his second NFL season in 2014.

Verdict: Sell

James Brimacombe of Fantasy Pros thinks big things could be in store for Ertz in 2015:

"

Ertz has played in all 32 games for the Eagles over his first two seasons and made strides in year two posting a 58/702/3 statline. Ertz was the 20th ranked TE in his rookie season and last year came in ranked 13th among TE's. Everything is pointing in the right direction for Ertz to improve once again and crack the top 10 fantasy TE's with a more accurate Sam Bradford as the new Eagles QB.

"

And it's possible he's right. This is a lukewarm "sell."

However, there's a fair-sized obstacle standing between Ertz and a huge season. Last year, he played only 603 snaps. That was less than half of the Eagles' total for the season. The reason? The presence of Brent Celek, who ranked second among all tight ends in run blocking, per PFF.

Celek is still in Philadelphia, and with the veteran siphoning early-down work, Ertz is going to have to get big-time production from the snaps he does get to justify his TE8 price tag in drafts, per Fantasy Pros.

Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Given that there's already been discussion of a couple of very young wide receivers, it seems only fitting that we discuss at least one who, um, isn't.

And in the past two years, it's appeared that Father Time might just be catching up with New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marques Colston. After topping 1,000 receiving yards in six of his first seven NFL seasons, the 32-year-old has missed the mark two years running. Colston's 902 receiving yards in 2014 were his fewest since 2008.

Still, quarterback Drew Brees insisted to John DeShazier of the team's website that Colston remains an important piece of the Saints offense:

"

Marques is my guy, he’ll always be my guy. We’ve been here for so long together and he’s so dependable, such a professional, such a great person to have on the field, not only from what he brings to us from a productivity standpoint but also in the locker room and in the meeting room. He does everything that needs to be done.

"

If the average draft position data at Fantasy Pros is any indication, fantasy owners aren't so sure—the 32-year-old is being selected outside the top 40 at his position.

Verdict: Buy

Generally, fantasy owners turn to NFL team sites for player updates, not fantasy analysis. However, that didn't stop Steve Andress of the Colts' website from suggesting that Colston's modest asking price makes the veteran a big-time value at wide receiver:

"

Jimmy Graham? Gone. Kenny Stills? Gone. Somebody has to catch the ball in New Orleans, and it looks like the two primary options will be Brandin Cooks and Colston. Cooks went on IR last year, dashing any hopes of consistent rookie production. It seems like Colston’s been in the league forever, but he’s still only 32. He also hasn’t missed more than 2 games in a season since 2008. Five straight seasons of 900+ receiving yards, in seasons with far more options for Drew Brees than the Saints have now. It may not be a flashy name, but you’ll enjoy the production.

"

Andress is spot-on. Even in last year's "down" season, Colston finished as a low-end fantasy WR3 in PPR scoring systems. In other words, all he has to do is back last year's numbers up to justify his draft-day cost in 2015.

With anything more (a distinct possibility given the turnover in the Big Easy this year), Colston would go from value to steal.

Josh Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

No position causes fantasy owners more consternation in 2015 than tight end.

It was already a spot short on elite options. Now, with Jimmy Graham (Seattle Seahawks) and Julius Thomas (Jacksonville Jaguars) both taking value hits thanks to a change in teams, the pool of fantasy talent at the position is shallower than ever.

That's had a two-pronged effect. First, the price of the remaining reliable weekly starters has gone up. Second, with Thomas frankly no longer a member of that club, some fantasy owners are more determined than ever to sort through the later-round options in search of an upside play.

And for some fantasy pundits, including Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports, that means taking a long look at Graham's replacement in New Orleans:

"

With Graham catching carp in Seattle, the door swings open for the undrafted product from Idaho St. Many expected New Orleans to address tight end in the draft, but instead of sinking a top pick in Maxx Williams, the Saints avoided the position altogether, a statement of how much confidence Sean Payton has in Hill. The underrated target was lethal in limited doses last year. Though the sample size was small, his 0.96 fantasy points per opportunity in PPR (0.74 in standard) topped all TEs by a colossal margin (Gronk's PPR ppo was 0.60). Considering Ben Watson and Orson Charles are his only competition, a massive uptick in playing time should be expected (293 snaps played in '14).

"

Evans is far from alone. In fact, you'll be hard-pressed to find a "sleeper" list in 2015 that doesn't have Hill's name on it.

Verdict: Sell

The Hill hype hit a major snag in OTAs, at least according to ESPN.com's Mike Triplett:

"

I've written a lot about Josh Hill this summer, as well. I think he'll pop up on the fantasy radar since he'll get an opportunity at more touches with Graham gone. But I'm not expecting a major breakthrough. I think Hill's 5 TDs last year were a bit misleading since he was usually benefitting from being the "open man" on those plays instead of a red-zone monster. He had only 14 catches overall. I actually think tight end Benjamin Watson could be a sleeper late-round pickup in deeper leagues and during bye weeks, etc. Watson might have led the Saints in catches during the OTA and minicamp practices that were open to the media.

"

Add in that head coach Sean Payton recently told John DeShazier of the Saints' website that Hill's playing time could be largely reliant on "how much two tight end sets we’re in, how much sub (packages),” and the huge spike in targets many expect for Hill may well be wishful thinking.