New England Patriots Mock Draft: Updated Day 2 Predictions
The New England Patriots appeared all set to move out of the first round and make their real mark on Day 2, as they have in numerous drafts past under Bill Belichick. The Boston Globe's Shalise Manza Young even reported an agreement with the Houston Texans, a logical trading partner who would have allowed the Pats to control Rounds 2 and 3.
But then Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown fell to the 32nd pick, gift-wrapping the Patriots a potential Vince Wilfork successor and another young piece on an increasingly formidable front seven. Though the Pats now have less ammo on Day 2, they'll surely trade that for a premium prospect who addresses one of the team's bigger needs and turns it into a significant strength.
With three picks on Friday, the Patriots still have to fill their two biggest needs at guard and cornerback, while holes at wide receiver, running back and linebacker remain. New England won't address everything between Rounds 2 and 3, but if it can extract the same kind of value it did with Brown, Pats fans won't have anything to complain about.
With the Brown selection in the rearview mirror, let's re-project our initial mock draft and see which prospects could be on the Patriots' radar.
Round 2
1 of 5Pick 64: Eric Rowe, CB, Utah
I initially had Grady Jarrett in this spot, but that's obviously a moot point now after the Brown selection. Considering the layout at guard, it probably makes more sense to take a prospect like Utah's Rowe rather than forcing an A.J. Cann or Tre' Jackson type at guard simply to fill a need.
Rowe would offer tremendous value at this spot at the end of Round 2. At 6'1" and 205 pounds, Rowe is an ideal prospect to chase if the Patriots want to maintain some of the press-man principles they rode en route to a Super Bowl title last season. A converted safety, Rowe answered some questions about his speed at the scouting combine, acing all of the drills:
"If it wasn't for Byron Jones, Eric Rowe's amazing performance would have been the talk of the combine at the CB spot. Aced every drill...
— Chris Trapasso (@ChrisTrapasso) April 28, 2015"
Indeed, Rowe's greatest attribute is his ability to disrupt the timing of receivers and move them off their route at the stem, much like what Brandon Browner did last year. Rowe will need to learn how to use his hands more efficiently to avoid piling up the same number of penalties as Browner did last year, but with excellent ball skills stemming from his days as a safety, Rowe has all the tools to excel in man coverage.
The Patriots could take Rowe and not necessarily need him to play immediately, though fans might differ on that sentiment. Still, though some developmental time might help Rowe as he continues learning the cornerback position, his superior physical assets might have him in the starting lineup by midseason.
Round 3
2 of 5Pick 96: Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State
I originally projected Nelson Agholor to the Patriots, but the fast-rising USC receiver ended up far out of New England's range with the Philadelphia Eagles at pick 20. Thus, with the Patriots still potentially looking for receiver depth, Kansas State's Lockett looks like someone who could be an excellent value at this spot.
Pro Football Focus' Gordon McGuinness (via ESPN.com) labeled the ex-Wildcat the most underrated player in the entire draft:
"If there is a prospect in this draft who looks like he's simply too small to be regarded as a top pick, it's Lockett. A big-play threat who produced 559 yards on passes 20 yards or more downfield in 2014, he plays much bigger than his 5-foot-11, 175-pound frame suggests, going up to win the ball at the catch point when needed. An impressive route runner, he has quick feet that allow him to quickly get open and find holes in zones well. In a deep receiving class, he could fall further than his talents suggest, giving someone a steal on Day 2 or later.
"
As McGuinness alludes to, Lockett's biggest question mark is his ability to beat press coverage. But as his 4.4-second 40-yard dash time indicates, Lockett possesses the play speed and short-space agility to beat corners in different ways. With the nuance to vary his releases off the line of scrimmage, Lockett looks like an ideal slot or flanker receiver who could do damage in space.
Lockett was also a kick returner in Manhattan, potentially addressing a significant special teams weakness. In many ways, Lockett seems like a smaller version of Agholor, as both are among the best potential fits in a Patriots passing scheme that emphasizes route running and football IQ. If the Kansas State product is still sitting here, expect the Pats to jump.
Pick 97: Daryl Williams, G, Oklahoma
The Pats won't have their full pick of the litter at guard with Laken Tomlinson already off the board. Tomlinson was my favorite guard before the draft—I put him at the top of the New England-specific big board—so in this scenario, a better value play might be to wait for Oklahoma's Daryl Williams at the end of Round 3.
The 6'5", 327-pound guard is a true mauler with the ability to jolt defenders at the point of attack using his powerful punch. Williams excels when allowed to operate in short spaces, and he should be an excellent combo-blocker at the next level, helping neutralize nose tackles or double-team 3-techniques.
However, the collegiate right tackle probably won't be able to stick on the outside in the pros. Williams is far too lead-footed to hold up against explosive, bendy edge-rushers in the NFL, as his lateral agility is lacking. Moreover, when he doesn't win with his hands, Williams is often too stiff to adjust. Defenders who can get outside his massive frame will usually win, though that task is easier said than done.
Nevertheless, as a heady, high-character prospect, Williams represents another excellent program fit in Foxborough. Even if the Pats double-dip at guard in the draft or re-sign veteran starter Dan Connolly, Williams is the type of player who could start immediately or be groomed as a 2016 successor while serving as the top interior backup his rookie season.
Round 4
3 of 5
Pick 101: Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina
Davis is an interesting buy-low candidate, as he appeared slower and had apparent conditioning issues in 2014. His average yards per carry slipped from 5.8 his sophomore year to 4.9 last season, and the film clearly showed someone who looked like more of a plodder in 2014.
However, Davis could fit nicely with the power-running scheme the Pats leaned more toward last year. Even without elite lateral agility, the South Carolina product demonstrates a downhill running style that works well when given a specific gap to look for. In that sense, he seems like a good potential replacement for Stevan Ridley as the early-down between-the-tackles runner.
The Pats won't need to rush Davis into that role, as LeGarrette Blount is under contract and likely entrenched there. But Blount, who will turn 29 in December, is a free agent after 2015, and the Pats have been reluctant about doling out any real money to free-agent backs, as we saw this spring with Ridley and Shane Vereen.
Thus, it's probably a good idea for the Patriots to refill that pipeline, unless they have a particular affinity for Jonas Gray or Tyler Gaffney. New England used one of its predraft visits on Davis, per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, so he's a name to watch if the Pats emerge from Friday's draft proceedings without a running back.
Pick 131: Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan
I thought Shaq Thompson might be a nice fit as a mid-round linebacker, but the Carolina Panthers stunningly took the Washington product in the first round. If off-the-ball linebackers continue going off the boards earlier than expected—Clemson's Stephone Anthony was another surprise first-rounder—then perhaps Ryan's stock rises accordingly.
For now, we'll keep Ryan in this spot. The 6'2", 240-pounder possesses a nice combination of size and range, making him a potential three-down linebacker if he can learn to sift through interior blocking. Ryan's lateral agility should improve as he moves another year away from his 2013 torn ACL, which appeared to hamper him throughout his 2014 campaign.
Assuming everything checked out fine in his predraft medical, Ryan possesses greater sideline-to-sideline range on tape than more touted off-the-ball linebackers like Denzel Perryman and Benardrick McKinney. Though there's still value in those kinds of downhill thumpers, the Pats have been trending toward lighter, more fluid movers like Jamie Collins in recent seasons given the proliferation of sub-package defenses.
Ryan fits that mold, as he possesses the versatility to play all three linebacker spots in 4-3 packages. A team captain at Ann Arbor who is also a good off-field fit, the Pats would be receiving nice value at an area in need of depth.
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Round 6
4 of 5
Pick 178: Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M
Harrison started at tackle and guard throughout his college career, even briefly subbing in for Cedric Ogbuehi last season. The 6'3", 330-pound Harrison probably has too many technique issues to play tackle to start his career, but with surprising lateral agility and an above-average football IQ, he looks like a nice late-round gamble who could be at least a multipositional backup throughout his career.
Harrison should be a relatively scheme-versatile guard, as he was frequently asked to down-block and pull at College Station, where the Aggies took advantage of his movement fluidity. Harrison's 7.51-second three-cone drill time was fourth best among guards at the scouting combine, indicating someone who should excel in power or zone schemes, which often ask their interior linemen to move around.
However, for a player of his girth, Harrison is actually rather susceptible to bull rushes because of technique issues involving his hands and posture.
Moreover, "conditioning concerns" caused him to miss Texas A&M's first two games of its 2014 campaign, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, possibly contributing to some of those technique lapses. Good coaching can fix the relatively modest issues that plague an in-shape Harrison, but he won't make it in the league carrying a fleshy midsection.
It's not unfathomable that Harrison could rise as high as the fourth or fifth round if a team buys into his commitment for the game. Otherwise, he's the type of player who possesses Day 2 talent but will slip to Day 3 until he proves his intangibles won't override his real on-field talent.
Round 7
5 of 5
Pick 211: Joe Cardona, LS, Navy
Long snapper is a need for the Patriots, as incumbent Danny Aiken is still unsigned as a free agent. Given Aiken's relatively shaky performance in 2014, it seems likelier that the Pats will opt for a cheaper, younger alternative in the draft.
Navy's Cardona is clearly the most logical candidate given Belichick's connections to Annapolis through his father, Steve, who scouted and coached there for 33 years.
Cardona's the top-rated long snapper at NFL.com and the second-ranked one at CBS Sports, so he could end up getting selected at some point on Day 3. In fact, Cardona might be the best specialist available period given the dearth of quality kickers this season:
"The first specialist drafted this year could be long snapper Joe Cardona. Would be just the 4th LS drafted.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) April 15, 2015"
The last long snapper the Pats drafted was Jake Ingram in 2009, though the sixth-rounder didn't actually finish his second season in Foxborough. I moved Cardona up from pick 253 in the initial predraft mock, as it wouldn't be surprising to see the Pats pick him a little earlier to ensure that they shore up one of the core positions on special teams.
Pick 253: Troy Hill, CB, Oregon
I flipped Hill and Cardona from the predraft mock, figuring that if Hill's off-field issues could push him to the seventh round, he'd still be available near the end of the draft. Suspended at the end of Oregon's 2013 season for violating team rules, Hill also received three years probation following a domestic dispute that eventually became misdemeanor menacing.
On the field, Hill does have some other red flags, most notably his wiry 5'10", 182-pound frame. Though he plays with physical edge, Hill's build pushes the boundaries of being too small to play at the NFL level. He played outside at Eugene, but it's doubtful that Hill will be able to match up against bigger split ends in the pros, likely delegating him to slot duty wherever he lands.
And yet, Hill was as effective as any zone corner in the FBS last year. According to Pro Football Focus' charting stats, Hill allowed a mere 0.78 yards per cover snap last year, best in the Pac-12 and 12th best in all of the FBS. He possesses excellent short-space agility and the ability to read receiver releases, which should serve him well in a potential slot role.
In many ways, Hill is reminiscent of Alfonzo Dennard, another physical, undersized corner who slipped further than his talent would suggest due to off-field concerns before the draft. There's a chance Hill is not even on New England's board, but considering how Dennard's selection paid off his first two years in the league, Hill could be another no-risk gamble who pays off.
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.jpg?w=480 "Titans Camp Football")
