New England Patriots Mock Draft: Final 7-Round Predictions

You've probably read an incalculable number of NFL mock drafts by now, but in truth, mock drafts are a useful exercise in thinking about team needs and schematic fits for prospects.  All the furor from fans and analysts insisting on making correct predictions is really a secondary concern, as few outside of team front offices actually know what organizations are thinking.

The New England Patriots are among the most unpredictable teams, but based on their draft history under Bill Belichick, we can rely on a few trends. 

The Patriots will always take the best available player even if the depth chart doesn't necessitate it, as they've done with Jimmy Garoppolo and Nate Solder in recent seasons.  They'll certainly move around the board all three days.  And New England will probably take a player we've never heard of, envisioning a specific niche that accentuates his strengths.

With the interminable lead-up to the draft almost over, it's important to keep those trends in mind as we take one more stab at the draft, rather than getting caught up in all the noise and anonymous reports that litter the interwebs at this time of year.  Here, then, is your final Patriots mock draft before the draft kicks off on Thursday night.

Round 1

Pick 32: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

No, wide receiver is not the Patriots' biggest need.  But of the players who could be available at No. 32, Agholor looks like the ideal schematic fit to contribute immediately and become Foxborough's next uber-productive slot receiver.  As ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss opined in his Sunday notes, the sheer depth of this year's wide receiver class is probably pushing Agholor, a top-15 type of talent most years, down the boards:

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If Southern Cal receiver Nelson Agholor is available at No. 32, for example, I think that could be enticing to the club, depending on who else might be available. That’s one scenario I’ve played out in mock drafts that wouldn’t shock me, even though I don't view receiver as a great need when stacked up against guard, defensive tackle, off-the-line linebacker and cornerback. The thinking with a pick like Agholor is that because this is such a solid receiver class, a player with his skills and upside might normally be off the board earlier than 32, but he could get pushed down because of the glut of top-flight pass-catchers.

"

Agholor was one of the driving forces behind USC's 2014 resurgence, notching 104 receptions for 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns during his junior-year campaign, all career highs. 

Though teams will pigeonhole him as a slot receiver due to his 6'0" and 198-pound frame, Agholor's quickness and strength at the point of attack could also allow him to play a perimeter flanker role, much like the one Julian Edelman currently occupies.

Given the structure of their passing game, the Patriots probably need a polished slot prospect like Agholor more than the big deep threat everyone wants to mock for them. 

According to Spotrac, the team could save over $4 million by cutting current slot receiver Danny Amendola after 2015.  The team could restructure one more time with Amendola's contract running through 2016, but apart from Edelman and Brandon LaFell, there are no long-term receivers on this roster.

Agholor possesses the football IQ to fit seamlessly into New England's scheme, a rare trait for collegiate receivers. 

The Bill Belichick-era Pats have never taken a receiver in the first round, and their high bust rate at the position might cause wariness for some.  New England's first preference is probably to trade out of this spot, but since we're not projecting trades, picking a talent like Agholor would represent a tidy consolation prize.

Round 2

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Pick 64: Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson

The Pats seem likely to address the trenches multiple times during this draft given their depth issues along the interior.  While guard looms as a bigger immediate need, Jarrett is too much value to pass up if he lasts to the end of the second round given his three-down potential and translatable skill set.

Jarrett has been a hot commodity in recent weeks, so he might be a more realistic target in the middle of Round 2.  At 6'1" and 304 pounds, Jarrett is not a Vince Wilfork replacement, as he is too undersized to ever become a consistent two-gapper.  But as CBS Sports' Pete Prisco argues, Jarrett's explosive first step can make him a game-changing 3-technique:

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For an NFL comparison, think Geno Atkins, the pre-injury Atkins. Like Atkins, Jarrett would have to be in the right scheme to use his skills. He isn't a two-gap nose. But he can be a great 3-technique tackle in a 4-3 scheme. …

There are a lot of defensive tackles getting first-round mentions, but Jarrett isn't one of them. I am not sure that is right. He doesn't have the size, but this is a kid who has the tools to be an 8-10 sack player in the right scheme on the next level as well as a good player against the run.

"

Lest you think there's too much overlap between Jarrett and 2014 first-rounder Dominique Easley, I could also see the former playing the 1-technique (shaded outside of center) because of his excellent lower body strength.  Clemson often had Jarrett line up as the 0-tech nose tackle in three-man fronts, and although that won't be his consistent NFL role, his ability to win with leverage augurs a plus run defender.

The adage that you can never have enough pass-rushers holds especially true for New England this year, which will need a huge effort from its front seven after the free-agent losses at cornerback.  Jarrett is someone who should be a sub-package fixture immediately, with the potential for more down the line.

Round 3

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Pick 96: Daryl Williams, OG, Oklahoma

The Pats are in a bit of a pickle at guard given that the top prospects like Laken Tomlinson and A.J. Cann figure to go somewhere in the middle of the second round.  While those could be prime targets in the event of a trade down from pick 32, New England might want to wait a bit later in the draft for better values at the position.

Williams is one such example.  The 6'5", 327-pound guard out of Oklahoma is one of the more powerfully built interior linemen in this draft and consistently demonstrates the ability to jolt defenders at the point of attack with his physicality.  A true grinder, Williams excels when asked to block men in front of him in phone-booth areas.

However, he's not exactly a scheme-versatile player due to below-average athleticism.  For instance, he'll never excel as the pulling guard on runs like Power O and probably shouldn't receive too many down-blocking assignments. 

In pass protection, Williams' ability to win largely depends on whether he gets his hands in the defender's frame.  Against quicker 3-techniques in the league, that could be a trickier proposition than it was in the Big 12.

But Williams is also a high-character prospect with a high football IQ, assets the Pats have always sought out.  Although there might be a bit of a transition phase for the collegiate tackle as he shifts inside, Williams is an ideal prospect who could serve as a top backup and eventually take over for Dan Connolly (assuming he re-signs) or Ryan Wendell.

Pick 97: Alex Carter, CB, Stanford

The Patriots' current cornerback corps is a weird mix between smaller corners better in off-zone coverage (Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington) and more physical players who need to play press to hide their lack of top-end speed (Malcolm Butler, Bradley Fletcher). 

I've leaned toward looking for bigger corners, however, as it's extremely hard for defenses to survive without any press-man coverage principles given the types of route combinations in today's game.

The 6'0", 196-pound Carter thus seems like a reasonable fit under that premise.  Carter's best trait is his ability to redirect receivers off the line, as he often won by disrupting receivers during their route stems.  That won't work against every big pro receiver, but it's the type of fearless, competitive attitude that generally puts him in position to make a play on the ball.

However, Carter also lacks much margin for error due to a lack of plus hip fluidity (7.05-second three-cone drill time).  He'll consequently need to play with excellent technique, as the league's better route-runners will use subtle movements to force Carter to open his hips and reveal his hand.  Don't be surprised if he faces plenty of double-moves early in his career as offensive coordinators prod at his discipline.

Carter could be a lightning rod for fans if technique improvements don't arrive, as he gave up some deep balls due to poor technique that left him out of position.  But none of his problems are fatal, and given good coaching, Carter at his best can be a scheme-versatile outside corner with the physicality, tackling fundamentals and intelligence to shut things down outside the numbers.

Round 4

Pick 101: Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina

The Patriots should have some nice backfield options with the second pick of Day 3.  Besides Davis, the likes of David Cobb and Jeremy Langford are also potential fits who could be available in this area.  Thus, unless someone like Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley shockingly slips to pick 32, the Pats seem likely to wait for a high-upside prospect like Davis later on.

The South Carolina product saw his stock slip last season due to regression, as he appeared slower and had apparent conditioning issues in 2014, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein.  Without elite lateral agility, Davis is more of an in-between-the-tackles runner, something that might limit his value for offenses with more spread concepts. 

However, Davis would fit nicely with the power-running scheme the Pats leaned more toward last year.  I'm tying his selection in part to my third-round pick of Daryl Williams, who would also indicate a greater commitment to gap-blocking run calls. 

Davis tends to stutter-step too much when faced with an improvisational opportunity, but he typically does a good job of running north-south when given a specific hole to seek out.

New England used one of its predraft visits on Davis, per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, so there's clearly something about him that intrigues the Pats.  Given the lack of a clear long-term running back solution on the current roster, Davis is a name to watch if New England emerges from the first two days of the draft without a selection at the position.

Pick 131: Jake Ryan, LB, Michigan

I've advocated for Ryan in multiple spaces, and in the B/R community mock, I picked him at this exact spot.  Thus, I won't spend too much time rehashing what you may have already read about the Michigan linebacker, who I see as an ideal fit at the "Sam" spot in New England's 4-3 package, but who also has the versatility to play all three spots.

The only clear issue I would have with Ryan is his injury history, as he tore his ACL midway through the 2013 season and appeared to demonstrate diminished agility in 2014 as a result. 

That could simply stem from the one-year period it often takes for athletes to fully recover their old range of movement after an ACL tear, but depending on how Ryan's predraft medicals came out, teams could be more leery of taking someone who enters the league with an already damaged knee.

This projection assumes everything checks out fine, however.  Off-the-line linebackers are fairly light in this year's draft class, with questions about movement fluidity (Paul Dawson, Benardrick McKinney, Denzel Perryman) or size (Eric Kendricks, Shaq Thompson) hounding most of the top prospects. 

Ryan is far from the perfect prospect, but given his range and nose for the ball, he seems to represent a better value than if the Pats were to splurge at the position in the first three rounds.

Round 6

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Pick 178: Jarvis Harrison, OG, Texas A&M

Harrison's College Station teammate Cedric Ogbuehi was always the more heralded prospect, but it was Harrison who replaced Ogbuehi at left tackle midway through the Aggies' 2014 season.  While the 6'3", 330-pound Harrison is probably a better guard prospect, that kind of versatility could make him an intriguing late-round flier.

The reason Harrison will likely be available this late is due to "conditioning concerns," which actually caused him to miss the first two games last season, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein.  Surprisingly, though weight has been a struggle for him, Harrison remains one of the nimbler interior line prospects, as his 7.51-second three-cone drill time ranked fourth among all guards at the scouting combine.

Thus, Harrison profiles well in virtually any type of blocking system, as he possesses the power to short-set anchor and the agility to keep his balance as he finds linebackers downfield.  He doesn't always display that power, particularly in pass protection, because of technique issues involving his hands and posture, but good coaching can correct those problems.

If Harrison can convince a team that his commitment for the game is genuine, then perhaps he rises earlier than this.  Otherwise, he's a late-rounder who will possess the measurables and talent to become a starter, but not necessarily the drive to survive the NFL grind.

Round 7

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Pick 219: Troy Hill, CB, Oregon

There's a prospect every year who sees his stock plummet because of character questions, and Hill could be this year's unfortunate recipient of that label.  Hill was suspended at the end of Oregon's 2013 season for violating team rules and was involved in a domestic dispute that eventually became misdemeanor menacing, for which he received three years probation.

Were it not for those significant red flags, Hill might go as high or higher than his more heralded teammate Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.  Though undersized at 5'10" and 182 pounds, Hill was as good an off-man zone corner as any in college football last year.  According to Pro Football Focus' charting stats, Hill allowed a miserly average of 0.78 yards per cover snap last year, best in the Pac-12 and 12th-best in all of the FBS.

Strength is his biggest on-field concern; though he played entirely on the outside at Eugene, there's a legitimate concern if his lanky frame will be able to take the pounding that comes with a 16-game season against bigger, faster and stronger wide receivers.  Hill's excellent short-space agility would likely translate well to the slot, but that would be a positional change that might take some adjusting.

Again, there's a chance that Hill isn't even on New England's board due to off-field concerns.  Hill has stayed out of trouble for over a year now since the ugly end to his junior campaign, so his draft stock will likely boil down to his ability to sell teams on his character more so than the skills he shows on tape.

Pick 253: Joe Cardona, LS, Navy

Belichick has always had a strong connection to the Naval Academy because of his father Steve, who scouted and coached at Annapolis for 33 years.  With incumbent snapper Danny Aiken not under contract, there's already been plenty of speculation that Cardona could end up a Patriot:

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Navy LS Joe Cardona is another to watch. Belichick took a LS in the sixth round in '09, I wonder if he would do it again? #longsnappertalk

— Mark Daniels (@MarkDanielsPJ) April 13, 2015"

Cardona is the top-rated long snapper at NFL.com and the second-ranked one at CBS Sports, suggesting that he might have a draftable grade.  Given how Aiken struggled at times last season, it doesn't make much sense to pay for a below-average snapper when a cheap potential upgrade could be available in the late rounds.

The last long snapper the Pats drafted was Jake Ingram in the sixth round, though Ingram didn't even make it through the 2010 season in Foxborough.  That shouldn't necessarily deter the Patriots from Cardona, however, even if it's simply to stash him while he serves his required two-year military service.

*All measurables and combine stats via NFL.com.