Mike Freeman's 10-Point Stance: Jameis Winston in NYC Is the Nightmare Scenario
1. J-J-J-Jameis and the Jets
Let's get this out of the way: Jameis Winston will probably be picked by the Buccaneers first overall, and whatever else you hear is probably misdirection. Emphasis on probably.
ESPN's Ron Jaworski said on SportsCenter on Tuesday that he's hearing from sources that Tampa Bay will take Marcus Mariota instead. Misdirection? Probably. This is what happens around draft time. Remember, last year there were reports about how much the Bucs loved Johnny Manziel. It was perfectly played BS.
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By next week, someone will have Winston going to Winnipeg.
What I can confirm from sources is that while the Bucs will likely take Winston, they are not totally sold on him. That is 100 percent accurate. This is why other teams are working out Winston. They are doing due diligence because they know the Buccaneers might pass on Winston. Emphasis on might.
This brings us to the Jets. The New York ones, not the Winnipeg ones (yet). The New York Post's Brian Costello reported last week:
I haven't been able to confirm this report, but you know the Jets' interest would be real...if Winston falls to No. 6 or somehow becomes available in a trade, like in 2012 when Andrew Luck pushed Robert Griffin III out of the top spot and Washington gave up the farm to move from No. 6 to No. 2.
The reality is that the Jets almost certainly have no real shot at Winston. None at all. Again, he still probably goes first overall, and if he doesn't, falling as far as No. 6 would be comparable to Aaron Rodgers falling to No. 24 a decade ago. The hype around Winston makes it that unlikely. There's almost a Hunger Games type of mentality happening. With just two franchise QBs in this draft, teams are more desperate than normal.
But suspend disbelief and just think about this for a moment: Winston in New York. Oh my. Winston in freaking New York.
If it happened, it would be one of the great disasters of all time. A guy with little impulse control in a city and area infamous for wrecking people without impulse control.
I've lived in the New York area since 1992, and it is one of the most brutal places in the country to be an athlete. It's true that if things go well, there is no better place to be. A championship athlete is lifted by fans and media. But when things go badly, a failing athlete gets buried by fans and media. No city—not Philly, not Chicago, no city—has this juxtaposition to the degree New York does.
You don't have to look far for recent precedent. We still don't totally know just how good (or how bad) Geno Smith is, but one player on the Jets told me that while he believes Smith is more talented than he showed, he also thinks Smith "cracked" under the pressure of losing in New York. That's the word he used: cracked.
What did the player mean? He felt that Smith succumbed to the pressure of starting, and then losing, and it showed in his decision-making on the field.
The other problem for Winston in New York would be the fact that the Jets are terrible. Oh, they may not be for long. They now have an excellent front office and head coach and may be good in three years, but for now, Winston would be entering a terrible situation.
And the amount of pressure for him to win despite that terrible situation would be staggering.
Winston in New York. Again, it's unlikely it will come to this. But it could.
And it would be a disaster.
2. A breakout player on a breakout team?
Giants running back Andre Williams is a smart man. He demonstrated this on the field last season, in what was a surprisingly good rookie year. He also demonstrated it off the field when faced with the rookie tradition of buying his position group dinner, picking a dinner date when several running backs couldn't make it out.
Smart man. They went to The River Palm Terrace steakhouse. The bill: $550. Not bad.
If there was one player I'd pick now to break out this season, it would be Williams. If there was one team that would be an underdog Super Bowl pick, it would be the Giants.
Williams finished with 721 rushing yards and seven scores. With more carries expected this year, a healthy offensive line and a better Eli Manning—plus the stunning Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz stretching the field—Williams should have a chance to crush those rookie numbers.
"I'm not sure what to expect for this season," Williams told me recently. "I had a lot of fun last year. Things worked out great. I just plan to keep working hard and getting better. I want to achieve something great."
I think he will. He's got the right mindset, as does his team. I know this is not mainstream thinking, but I believe the NFC East is totally up for grabs. Can the Cowboys repeat? Maybe, but they aren't dynastic. And who knows what will happen with the Eagles. The Giants can certainly win it. They can certainly win a Super Bowl, too. Go ahead and laugh, but I'm not kidding. And Williams wasn't, either.
"We are going to be in contention to grab that title," he said.
I agree.
I asked Williams if he was as amazed by Beckham as the rest of the free world was. He told a funny story.
Early last season, when Beckham was still recovering from an injury, the team was practicing kickoffs. Beckham was outside the back of the end zone, talking to several other players when a kickoff headed right at him.
The football tumbled end over end but Beckham still didn't see it. Tumble, tumble, tumble. Beckham still didn't see it. Players started telling Beckham the ball was headed his way. As the football headed directly at him, Beckham turned at the last second and caught it behind his back.
"Everyone was like, 'Wow!'" said Williams.
Next year, people might be using that word with Williams as well. And the Giants.
3. Nice try, Russell
You have to admire the gall of Russell Wilson, floating on HBO's Real Sports that he might try to play baseball as well as football. That is one of the true great bluffs in sports history.
Well played, Mr. Wilson. Excellent try. Won't work. No way in hell.
The last time Wilson played organized baseball was in 2011. He played Class A baseball and hit .228.
So Wilson played low-level pro ball, hit .228 and hasn't played in four years—and now he's going to try to make the majors? While he continues to play in the NFL?
I think Wilson is one of the most underappreciated players in the NFL. He's far better than people give him credit for. But he also has a great deal to refine as a quarterback, and he's not the athlete that Deion Sanders or Bo Jackson was.
Perhaps what Wilson's words mean more than anything is that contract talks aren't going as well as we all think. As Pro Football Talk reported Tuesday:
Maybe that accounts for this magnificent baseball bluff.
4. Thomas boycotting workouts
It sounds worse than it is. Demaryius Thomas has yet to sign his $12.8 million franchise tag, but everyone involved—including a source close to Thomas—tells me they expect something to happen before training camp in July.
It's always possible negotiations go bad, but Thomas wants to be in Denver and the Broncos want him there.
5. Some fans are just losers
Matt Forte has been blasted by Bears fans for missing several days of voluntary camp. Voluntary camp. Voluntary. As in, volunteer. As in, he doesn't have to be there.
Forte was working out away from the facility with a personal trainer. So he was still working out. But some fans still blasted a player who is not just one of the best in football, but also one of the hardest working—an honorable guy who has practically carried the team on his shoulders through all of Jay Cutler's screw-ups.
This is why some fans drive players crazy. Turning on a guy like Forte for missing a day or two of something that isn't required is insanity. Not to mention Forte is always one of the best-conditioned players in football.
6. Meanwhile in Miami
I'm done trying to predict how the Dolphins will do, so I won't analyze this too much, but more than a few team executives I've spoken to think Miami could shock the NFL this season—even as far as reaching the Super Bowl.
Yes, those Dolphins.
7. Adrian Peterson trade?
I continue to hear from league sources that once Adrian Peterson is reinstated by Roger Goodell, the Vikings want to keep him. There is a possibility of a trade, but they want him back. They may force the issue contractually and see what Peterson does.
Meaning: We're not trading you, Adrian. Now show up and play. Then see what Peterson does. Eventually, he could be fined $30,000 a day, according to the collective bargaining agreement. That's a lot of cash. In these cases, the teams hold most of the power.
8. Box-jumps the new twerking
Every NFL player seems to have a box-jump video. They are multiplying at an exponential rate. They are impressive, to be sure—gigantic people jumping into the air like human rockets—but they are getting ridiculous. You're an NFL player. You are the best athlete in the world. You don't have to prove it with a box-jump.
Having said that, this one by 320-pound offensive lineman Kyle Long is damn impressive:
That beats twerking.
9. DeSean Jackson and Captain Jean-Luc Picard
Never thought I'd write DeSean Jackson and Captain Jean-Luc Picard in the same sentence, but here it is: Jackson and Patrick Stewart, the Trek captain, will be grand marshals at an IndyCar race. That might be the greatest thing of all time.
10. The descent
In my 25-plus years of covering the NFL, I have never heard consensus that a player would be a terrible draft pick like I did with Lawrence Phillips. Every team and league person I spoke to predicted he would be a terrible draft pick—everyone except the Rams. Phillips has a long, ugly history and now is accused of murder.
"Former NFL and college running back Lawrence Phillips a suspect in Kern Valley State Prison homicide, the CDCR says. pic.twitter.com/04EAW175yE
— Mark Powell (@MDP_Tweets) April 13, 2015"
I'm not saying all teams were against drafting Phillips. There were teams interested before the draft and after he was released by the Rams. But teams were also joking about the odds of how long it would take for him to get arrested. The overwhelming feeling among almost all teams was stay the hell away from this guy.
Boy, were they right. Except the Rams.
Mike Freeman covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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