Fantasy 101: Rating the Rookie Wide Receivers

Since Anquan Boldin burst onto the scene in 2003, the myth of wide receivers needing a year or two to make an impact has had a notable exception (or two or three) each season.  The rule of avoiding rookie wide receivers (except in keeper leagues) is now more of a caution.  Rather than avoiding them, the rule is do not count on them.  Here is a list of receivers who were above average or better as rookies since 2003:

2003: Anquan Boldin

2004: Michael Clayton and to a lesser extent Lee Evans and Larry Fitzgerald

2005: None

2006: Marques Colston

2007: Dwayne Bowe

2008: Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson

Of this list, half of the list, Boldin (second round), Colston (seventh), Royal (second) and Jackson (second), were not first round picks, proving what a crap shoot rookie receivers are.  

This proves you don't draft a rookie wideout to be anything more than a fourth or fifth receiver.  As tempting as a Calvin Johnson might have been in 2007, he had just 48 catches for 748 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie.  Those stats are not bad but not likely to be worth the price you paid to draft him. But if you picked Eddie Royal or DeSean Jackson in one of the last three rounds or less than $5 in an auction you received one of 2008 fantasy's most pleasant surprises.  

With the caveat of not banking on rookie wideouts out of the way, here are the best rookie receiver prospects for 2009:

1. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers - Highly touted for his route running and hands, Crabtree landed in a situation in which he can be the no. 1 receiver right away, not to mention learn from a similar receiver in Isaac Bruce. That said, the 49ers' QB situation is shaky and they will be a run first team.  As a result, Crabtree may have the most talent but he will likely be over-drafted making him a riskier pick. Of course, all of this is moot if he never signs a contract.

2. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings - Harvin has a lot to learn about being an NFL wide receiver (esp. route running) but his playmaking ability can't be underestimated as the Vikings will make use of his speed in the slot, on reverses and even as a "Wildcat" QB.  He won't have as many catches as you would like but he will get yardage in a variety of ways.

3. Brian Robiskie, Cleveland Browns - Aside from Crabtree, Robiskie was the most polished receiver in the draft and he lands in a situation in which he could be the no. 2 receiver right away in Cleveland.  He lacks great upside but runs great routes and is the safest pick to play right away and get 40-50 catches and 550-700 yards.

4. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans - Quick name a good Titans wide receiver. Now that you realize Justin Gage and Nate Washington are the competition, you see the opportunity Britt finds himself in.  That said, Britt is far from a sure thing esp. as a rookie.  He has a chance to be the #1 guy but then again he could be third or fourth. If nothing else he will be a great red zone option.  Don't draft him too early.

5. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants - Like Britt, Nicks has the opportunity to be the no. 1 guy and a red zone threat but has just as good a chance to be sitting on the sidelines as a rookie. He has Anquan Boldin like skills but don't bank on a Boldin like immediate impact (possible but not likely)

6. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders - They don't have anyone else and Heyward-Bey is a prototype Raiders vertical wide receiver. That said, he is extremely inconsistent, runs poor routes, inconsistent hands and has a lot to learn.  As a rookie he should be good for a few big plays but good luck guessing which weeks they occur. 

7. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - Of all of the first round receivers, Maclin is the least likely to make an impact as a rookie as he needs to learn the system and expand his route tree.  Then again, the Eagles lack a true no. 1 wide receiver and Maclin could surprise like Jackson did last year.  Best drafted for keeper leagues but worth a late round flyer.

Ok the big names are out of the way here are some names to consider for the out of the blue wide receiver impact:

8. Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts - Marvin Harrison is gone and the Colts run a lot of three receiver threats. Collie is a good route runner with excellent hands who might be able to step in right away as the no. 3 receiver.

9 (tie). Mike Thomas/Jarrett Dillard, Jacksonville Jaguars -  The Jaguars have used several first round picks on big, tall and unpolished wide receivers with little success.  Now the Jags have drafted two guys lacking ideal measure-ables (esp. size) but known for their polish, hands and receiving skills. Don't be surprised if one of them seizes a large role in the Jaguars passing game.  Pay close attention to stories out of Jaguars camp to determine which one it will be.

10. Kenny McKinley, Denver Broncos - The Broncos will be implementing a spread oriented Patriots style attack and need to find a no. 3 and no. 4 receiver to make the system work.  Like Thomas and Dillard above, McKinley does not have the best measurable talent,  but he has the talent to be a nice possession receiver. Could he fill a Wes Welker type role? (not likely but may be worth taking in the last round if he has a good camp).

11. Derrick Williams, Detroit Lions - Aside from Calvin Johnson the Lions receiver corp is a little thin and Williams has the skills to be a good slot receiver and could even play some Wildcat QB.  Has playmaking ability.

12. Sammie Stroughter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Easily the deepest sleeper on this list but Stroughter is one tough son of a gun who could shine if given a chance. 

13. Ramses Barden - New York Giants - A matchup nightmare in the Red Zone with his 6-6 size,  Barden just needs polish and a chance.  Not likely to make an early impact but has keeper potential.

14. Deon Butler - Seattle Seahawks - Has slot receiver potential on a team that will need to throw early and often.  He could get an opportunity because none of the other receivers are healthy.

15. Mohammed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns - I don't like Massaquoi especially as a rookie, but reverse psychology says Robiskie will make the early impact only to watch Massaquoi steal the show.  Its often the unheralded one that breaks out.

16. Juaquin Iglesias, Chicago Bears - Its all about opportunity and while Oklahoma receivers have struggled to adjust to the pro game, Iglesias is a good route runner who could find a role in a thin Bears receiving unit.

In sum, the 2009 wide receiver class was a talented one but with the holdout of Crabtree the jury is still out as to which receiver will be most relevant. When the pickings get slim at wide receiver late in your draft, take a flyer on the rookie receiver you think has the best chance to shine rather than taking a past his prime veteran type (Amani Toomer, Bobby Engram) who will likely be plentiful on the waiver wire.

Chris Maier is senior editor for Draft 101 and can be reached at [e-mail].