
NFL Free Agency 100: Top 11 Running Backs
In the NFL media world, we like to rank things. You'll see plenty of rankings this offseason on the best job openings, the best draft prospects and the best free agents available. But how many of these lists break down why a player is ranked at his respective spot in the order?
This list does that.
Everyone wants to know who the best available free agents are this offseason, and we'll tackle that, but we're also looking at what makes the best players so valuable in the same way an NFL front office evaluates available free agents. By scouting each player and assigning a number grade to him, we're able to objectively look at a player's value and upside as he hits the market.
And thus, the NFL Free Agency 100 was born.
In this series, we'll look at the best available running backs, ranking their Production (30 possible points), Durability (10 points), Intangibles (15 points), Upside (20 points) and Value (25 points) for a possible 100 overall points.
Production: Not just stats; is the player able to produce if given starting reps? This area looks at on-field ability and success.
Durability: NFL teams won't spend big money on a player who can't stay healthy. Durability addresses existing injury concerns.
Intangibles: The "it" factor. Intangibles encompass a player's presence in the locker room, with the media, in the huddle and how he'll impact the team's chemistry and dynamics.
Upside: What does the player have left in the tank? Can he improve with better coaching, better talent around him or a new scheme?
Value: Are we talking about a starter, a backup or a potential sleeper? Here is where the player's value on the open market is weighed.
11. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
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Production
Darren McFadden is a rare athlete with speed, strength and agility most only dream of. But he’s also one of the most injury-prone players in the league. When healthy, McFadden shows flashes of steady production but struggles with vision and adjusting to blocks. A zone running scheme could benefit him, as he’d be allowed to react more.
Durability
The 2014 season was the first time in his NFL career that McFadden played in all 16 games. Injuries have been an issue for him since he put on an Oakland jersey. A fresh start in a new city may help, but McFadden must be viewed as a piece to a backfield, not a solution to one.
Intangibles
McFadden has a clean background and is well-liked in the Oakland locker room. There are no hesitations off the field about signing him.
Upside
The downside to McFadden is his injury history, but the upside is that he’s been on some very bad Oakland teams that could have kept his production down. A fresh start might be ideal for him, especially if he’s sharing carries and keeping his legs healthy. The big concern, though, is his inability to stay on the field.
Value
No team should sign McFadden to a deal with starter money attached to it, which actually makes him a decent value. But even if you’re paying him mid-level money, he’s not worth that if he’s not on the field. He’s a risk-versus-reward signing.
Overall
10. Roy Helu, Washington
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Production
The Washington offense thrives on Alfred Morris, but Roy Helu keeps the chains moving, too. He’s a capable receiver, a hard runner and is versatile enough to pick up yards between the tackles or in space. He’s never been given extended reps as a No. 1 back, but when called upon to produce, he’s done the job. Helu is solid, even if he’s not spectacular.
Durability
As an NFL back, Helu has been injured often. Generally they aren’t big injuries, but enough to keep him off the field. He’s played all 16 games just once (2013) in his career and must be signed with the idea that he’s going to miss time.
Intangibles
Helu is one of the nicest players I’ve covered in this business. He’s a hard worker, which shows both on and off the field. He’s one of the most respected players in his locker room.
Upside
If it’s possible for a top-10 runner to be underrated, Helu is. He’s valuable in the screen game and a versatile runner. He’s also relatively fresh due to the rise of Morris and his injury history. If he can stay healthy—and that’s a big if—he could be a steal.
Value
Helu is who he is, which is a good third-down back with nice hands but a bit of an injury history. If signed to fill that role—No. 2 back, receiver out of the backfield—he could thrive. Just don’t ask him to be a No. 1 guy alone.
Overall
9. Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins
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Production
Knowshon Moreno was supposed to go to Miami and become the power back the team lacked but instead saw action in just three games after his first 1,000-yard season in 2013. Moreno’s production has been erratic; it's definitely a reason for concern if he’s being added as more than a complementary back.
Durability
Injuries have been a consistent issue in Moreno’s career and got him again in 2014. A torn ACL ended his year on a screen pass, and as he turns 28 years old this summer, he’ll be rehabbing said knee. And while an ACL tear isn’t as massive as it used to be, it’s still a big concern for his position and his age.
Intangibles
Moreno won’t be a problem in the locker room after an isolated incident in 2012 when he was arrested for DUI. Miami brought him in to add veteran leadership to a very young backfield and an offense with bad chemistry in 2013.
Upside
Moreno’s upside is very limited due to age and injury issues. Even if he’s back from the ACL tear, his history of being dinged up and injured makes him a liability.
Value
The best value for Moreno would be a team that needs a veteran back who might see 10 carries a game and can help in short-yardage situations. He’s not a viable option as a No. 1 back at this stage of his career.
Overall
8. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots
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Production
Shane Vereen saw action in all 16 games for the New England Patriots in 2014, but even in a career-best season, he’s been limited to a smaller role. His production as a runner and receiver has been good at times, but Vereen has never been a feature back or gotten more than 100 carries in any season. He’s a bit of a projection—something you don’t get much with a veteran NFL back.
Durability
Vereen has seen his share of injuries during his career. In 2013, it was a wrist. In 2014, it was an ankle. He’s not been the most durable back, but his injuries aren’t of the big, career-changing variety. He’s mostly endured big bumps and bruises that result in a few missed practices or missed games.
Intangibles
With no off-field issues and having never been in any trouble going all the way back to college, Vereen is a smart pickup for the locker room. In an offense that asks him to share reps and go stretches without activity, he’s remained humble and determined.
Upside
Vereen offers the risk-versus-reward of never being used as a feature back. That could be talent-related, but if given a larger role, he has shown the tools to be a bigger contributor. His upside is solid, and he’s a low-risk pickup.
Value
As a third-down back and rotational runner, Vereen has value. He’s not a No. 1 back but is definitely capable of being a No. 2 who may see increased carries and catches in certain matchups.
Overall
7. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots
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Production
Playing in New England means running on a short leash and being willing to share carries (while going games without seeing many reps). Stevan Ridley has weathered all those storms and still been productive. He isn’t a top-level receiver for a back but does offer some skill there. His best asset is his tough running between the tackles and off the edge.
Durability
Ridley ended the season on injured reserve with a knee injury. His torn ACL and MCL in early October make him a bit of a question mark for 2015. That said, Ridley has a clean track record prior to this injury. How well he bounces back from the knee injury is up for debate.
Intangibles
If you want a no-nonsense back with a hard-nosed approach, Ridley is your guy. He’s worked well under Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, too, which adds to his allure around the league.
Upside
If healthy, Ridley offers upside as a No. 1 running back. 2012 was a prime example, as he had over 1,200 yards rushing while showing off the skills that made him a third-round pick out of LSU.
Value
Ridley could be a steal if healthy, but the timeline for his return from injury could also keep his value down on the market. If he’s back to 100 percent, pencil him in as a sleeper starting-running-back candidate.
Overall
6. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
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Production
Ryan Mathews, when healthy, is a balanced, do-it-all back with the power, speed and receiving skills to be an exciting, top-level player. We saw that in 2013 when he played in 16 games and rushed for 1,255 yards and added 26 catches. If Mathews is on the field and not nursing a major injury, he can be Pro Bowl caliber.
Durability
Injuries have been a major part of Mathews’ career. Any team taking him in 2015 has to do so expecting him to miss time. In five NFL seasons, Mathews has missed two games or more in four of them.
Intangibles
A high-character player dating back to college, Mathews will not be a locker-room problem. It may be due to his numerous injuries and missed games, but Mathews has zero ego when it comes to sharing a role.
Upside
Mathews offers upside when healthy, but the downside is that he struggles to stay on the field. He does offer upside if you trust him to be on the field or if he’s part of a backfield rotation.
Value
Previous injuries will likely drive Mathews’ price down on the open market, which could make him more of a value signing than most former first-rounders with a 1,000-yard season under their belts.
Overall
5. Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
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Production
Justin Forsett put on his fifth different NFL jersey in 2014, and with Ray Rice out of the lineup in Baltimore, he became the go-to guy in the Ravens backfield. Forsett showed off outside running skills, patience and receiving ability. Playing in Gary Kubiak’s zone running scheme, he blossomed into a top-tier runner in his seventh season.
Durability
Injuries weren’t an issue in 2014. The biggest question mark will be how well Forsett can hold up over a full season if he’s given No. 1-back touches. He has a smaller frame (5’8”, 190 lbs), so it is a valid concern.
Intangibles
Forsett has bounced around the NFL since being drafted in 2008, so he knows the drill. He’s capable of working as a starter and rotational player and has spent time watching games fully padded on the sidelines. He’s a clean player off the field and won’t be a locker-room distraction—no matter how many touches he gets.
Upside
Despite having one big season, Forsett is already 29 years old, so his upside as an NFL runner is uncertain. Forsett's will be an interesting situation given his limited experience and advanced age for a running back. Expecting him to repeat his 2014 success isn’t realistic.
Value
Forsett had a career year in Baltimore, but it wasn’t all scheme-based production. He finally received enough reps to make an impact. Given his one year of success, Forsett could be had for a lower market value and still make a big impact.
Overall
4. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
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Production
Frank Gore enters the 2015 season as one of the most accomplished running backs of the last decade. He ranks No. 2 among active players in both rushing attempts and rushing yards, so his production isn’t a concern. Even in 2014, with little passing game and a beat-up offensive line, Gore was impressive running between the tackles and fighting for yards.
Durability
Gore will be 32 years old when the 2015 season begins but hasn’t missed a game since 2010. He has been banged up during that time, though, and with so many carries on his frame and two surgically repaired knees from college, it stands to reason that he’s an injury concern as he gets older.
Intangibles
Gore is the epitome of hardworking, quiet leadership. He may not be the most fiery player on the field, but his determination makes him someone others will follow. He’s also the kind of guy who will buy pizza for all media members covering the team to thank them for their work.
Upside
Due to age, Gore doesn’t offer as much upside as you might expect given his production. Most running backs fizzle out around 30 years old, so any team betting on Gore in 2015 must be committed to letting him share carries.
Value
If Gore is willing to take a smaller contract (maybe one or two years), he could be of very good value to a team needing a veteran running back with power and inside running skills. But if he’s looking for starter money, he likely won’t get it.
Overall
3. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
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Production
The New Orleans Saints employ a running-back rotation that keeps Mark Ingram from putting up the same numbers as other starters, but it also keeps him fresh and has him entering free agency with little wear and tear.
Durability
Injury hasn’t been an issue for Ingram throughout his career, and some of that can be attributed to the Saints rotation at running back. Minor injuries have popped up here and there for the former Alabama star, but he heads into 2015 with no injury concerns or limitations.
Intangibles
During his four seasons in the NFL, and even dating back to Alabama, Ingram has not had any off-field issues. He’s not a risk to add to a locker room.
Upside
There’s a bit of mystery here, as Ingram has never been a feature back for 16 games, which supports the argument that with extended carries, he might be able to produce more. That adds to Ingram’s upside and makes him one of the more intriguing backs in this free-agent class.
Value
Ingram is young (25), has limited wear and tear and has worked as a rotational back in a versatile offense. He projects well as a starting running back but could also be a complementary option for a team needing a powerful between-the-tackles runner.
Overall
2. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
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Production
C.J. Spiller was a Top 10 draft pick in the 2010 NFL draft and has a rare skill set as a runner and receiver. He possesses top-tier speed, top-tier hands and an uncanny ability as a route-runner for a back. Spiller has topped 1,000 yards rushing just once (2012) but has shared carries with Fred Jackson since his rookie season. He's gone over 1,000 yards from scrimmage twice (2012, 2013) and has three-down ability when healthy.
Durability
Spiller has played a full 16-game season just twice—in 2011 and 2012. During the 2014 season, he missed seven games with injury and has yet to prove he can be a durable, consistent threat on the field.
Intangibles
Spiller has no issues on or off the field that need to be addressed prior to signing.
Upside
Running backs tend to devalue when they turn 30 years old, and Spiller will be 28 when the season begins. He has statistical upside if healthy, but given his history of injuries, his upside is more limited than it might seem on the surface.
Value
Teams looking at Spiller should think in the short term instead of viewing him as a long-term fix. Signing Spiller to a two-year contract heavy on incentives would be the most team-friendly deal, but given his star power, production and ability as a runner and receiver, he could be a very hot name on the open market.
Overall
1. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys
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Production
It will be tough for DeMarco Murray to ever top his career- and franchise-best rushing year of 2014, and no team signing him should expect that. Murray did seem to find his rhythm as a runner last year, though, and heads into free agency with a proven season of health and production. A team with a strong offensive line has to figure it can get a few more 1,000-yard seasons out of him.
Durability
Murray was able to stay injury-free in 2014, but this is the first time in his career he played all 16 games in the regular season. Teams looking at Murray’s durability throughout the past season will be happy, but those doing a deeper dive may be scared off by his injury history.
Intangibles
Murray was the Cowboys workhorse in 2014 but also became a quiet leader on and off the field. His work ethic and determination were a big factor in the team’s success. He’s consistently made his way back from injuries in the past, too, further evidence of his work ethic.
Upside
It’s doubtful that Murray can ever repeat his 2014 season, and at age 27 when the 2015 season begins, he’s nearing the dreaded three-O mark. But Murray would have three more seasons before turning 30, and due to injuries in the past, he doesn’t have as much wear and tear as most 27-year-old backs carry. His upside is limited because expectations are so high, but he’s still a worthy investment.
Value
Wherever Murray plays in 2015, he’ll be the No. 1 running back on the roster and should figure to be the focal point of the offense. Even if he only produces a 1,200-yard season, that’s a nice return for a 27-year-old back. His new contract may not reflect his record-setting season, but Murray is by far the best free-agent back on the market.
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