NFL Predictions Week 15: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's do-or-die time for a number of teams across the NFL.

Whether it's the reeling San Francisco 49ers battling their hated enemies in Seattle, the Cleveland Browns trotting out quarterback Johnny Manziel against the Cincinnati Bengals or the Buffalo Bills trying to slow down the streaking Green Bay Packers, many clubs are fresh out of margin for error.

Lose in Week 15, and any hopes of making the playoffs go out the window. Given those pressure-packed matchups (and many more just like them), there's sure to be no shortage of drama in Week 15.

With that in mind, here's how the Division Lead and NFL National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report expect Chapter 15 of "The NFL Story: 2014 Edition" to play out.

Odds via Odds Shark.

Upset of the Week

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Winner: San Diego Chargers (+3.5) over Denver Broncos (5 votes)

In many respects, this category could be labeled the "staying alive special" in Week 15. More than a few of the teams picked for Upset of the Week by our experts need a win to keep their fading playoff hopes afloat.

Such is the case with the Buffalo Bills, who NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier thinks will give the Green Bay Packers all they can handle in Western New York on Sunday:

"

I hate all of my upset choices, so I am going with a default "trap" game. You know: road team coming off a home MNF win, out-of-conference opponent that can cause matchup problems. A great front four like the Bills have is the ultimate equalizer: Buffalo can disrupt the run and the pass without having to draw up much on the whiteboard, which makes the Bills an opponent headache every week. The line has slid from Packers -6 to -5, so others are on board. If it gets below four, though, I'll punt.

"

However, the leading vote-getter was the San Diego Chargers, who face off with the Denver Broncos in a pivotal AFC West battle.

It isn't just our panel who smells an upset in the making in sunny San Diego this week. John Breech of CBS Sports is on board as well:

"

If you've been watching the Broncos for the past two weeks, you may have noticed that it's hard to tell which Manning brother is their quarterback. On some throws recently, it looks like Eli's playing for the Broncos. On other throws, I could've sworn it was Cooper. In each of Denver's past two games, Manning has thrown for under 200 yards, something he hasn't done in consecutive games where he plays all four quarters since 2001. Something about Manning has seemed slightly off the past two weeks. Should the Broncos be concerned? I'm not sure, but I'm concerned enough not to pick them.

"

One thing's for sure: If this does come to pass, the last two weeks of the season in the AFC West are going to be mighty interesting.

Others receiving votes: Houston Texans (+7) over Indianapolis Colts (3 votes), Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over Green Bay Packers (2 votes), St. Louis Rams (+4.5) over Arizona Cardinals (2 votes), Oakland Raiders (+10.5) over Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), Atlanta Falcons (+1) over Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Winner: Baltimore Ravens over Jacksonville Jaguars (14 votes)

The votes for Blowout of the the Week often run the gamut. However, in Week 15 our voters took a leisurely stroll, as we were only a single dissension away from a unanimous call.

The Baltimore Ravens are still in the thick of the AFC North race after a needed win over the Miami Dolphins last week. Meanwhile, the only race the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars are running is the one for the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft.

As CBS Baltimore reports, John Eisenberg of the Ravens' website thinks the Jaguars should provide little resistance to the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

“They’re a team hoping to play well in 2015 or 2016," Eisenberg said. "Right now this a team the Ravens should steamroll.”

No word on whether he was wearing a porkpie hat when he said it.

Others receiving votes: Seattle Seahawks over San Francisco 49ers (1 vote)

Mismatch of the Week

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Winner: St. Louis Rams' front four vs. Arizona Cardinals (3 votes)

That's more like it. All that agreement was unsettling.

Nine different players/units received at least one vote for Week 15's biggest mismatch. They ran the gamut from superstar quarterbacks versus suspect secondaries to formidable pass rushes squaring off with iffy offensive lines.

It's that latter category that carried the day. In the opinion of NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon, the Arizona Cardinals are in for a long day against a Rams defensive front that has caught fire after a slow start to the season:

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The Rams have pitched back-to-back shutouts and have 13 sacks and 51 pressures in their last two games. That pass rush is rolling, and according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Stanton has completed just 41 percent of his passes while under duress.

"

Two other scribes agreed, which was enough to get Robert Quinn and Co. the nod.

Others receiving votes: Drew Brees vs. Chicago Bears secondary (2 votes), Matt Forte vs. New Orleans Saints defense (2 votes), Seattle Seahawks' defensive line vs. San Francisco 49ers' offensive line (2 votes), Seattle Seahawks secondary vs. Colin Kaepernick (2 votes), Any Washington QB versus any defense (1 vote), Julio Jones vs. Pittsburgh Steelers secondary (1 vote), Baltimore Ravens' pass rush vs. Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive tackles (1 vote)

Over/Under: 3 Combined TDs in the Jets-Titans Game

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Winner: Over (13 votes)

This game isn't a mismatch. In fact, the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans are very evenly matched. They're both God-awful, with inept offenses, porous defenses and a combined record of 4-22.

However, bad though they may be, our writers still think that more than three total touchdowns will be scored in the 2014 Draft Position Bowl (sponsored by Prozac).

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown explains:

"

The Titans and Jets are 30th and 27th in Weighted offensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. However, when things are that bad, change often doesn't make things worse.

Geno Smith threw for 254 yards against the Vikings, and they're actually a pretty solid defense. Jake Locker, for all his flaws, is more mobile than Zach Mettenberger, which will help as his offensive line is primarily made of waiver-wire fodder right now. The Titans hit the floor of their offense last week, and the Jets hit their floor when the Michael Vick circus came to Detroit to face the Bills.

I don't think a sub-three-touchdown game would be crazy to predict, but certainly it's more unlikely than not. Especially when you factor in the possibility of pick-sixes, special teams touchdowns and the like.

"

What, you wanted an emphatic endorsement? It's the Jets and Titans, folks.

Sleeper QB Performance

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

Winner: Derek Anderson, Carolina Panthers (5 votes)

It's been that kind of year for the Carolina Panthers.

Only a few days after playing his best game of the season in a blowout win over the New Orleans Saints, quarterback Can Newton rolled his truck. Newton has been released from a Charlotte hospital, but after fracturing two transverse processes in his back, Newton's a no-go in Week 15, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

For those wondering, the transverse processes are the small bony protrusions on the sides of each vertebra. You're welcome.

However, buck up, Panthers fans! Veteran backup Derek Anderson started Week 1 for the Panthers, leading Carolina to a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The same Buccaneers the Panthers play Sunday.

NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski looks for history to repeat itself in Week 15:

"

In Week 1, Anderson started for Cam Newton due to injury. Newton's accident was unfortunate, and he's expected to miss at least one game with the injuries he suffered.

As the Panthers prepare for the Buccaneers for a second time, Anderson looks to be the team's starter again. During that opening-day start against Tampa Bay, Anderson completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The Buccaneers defense has improved over the season, but it's still struggling on the back end. Anderson could exploit Tampa Bay's secondary if he's given time to throw by the Panthers' ramshackle offensive line.

"

All right! More tepid recommendations. This article is phenomenally lukewarm.

Others receiving votes: Geno Smith, New York Jets (4 votes), Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns (3 votes), Eli Manning, New York Giants (3 votes)

More Passing Yards: Tony Romo or Mark Sanchez

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Winner: Tony Romo (14 votes)

One of Week 15's biggest games takes place in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will meet with first place in the NFC East on the line.

In fact, according to Todd Archer of ESPNDallas.com, there may be even more than that on the line for the Cowboys:

"

Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks beating the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, the Cowboys' rematch with the Eagles has the division on the line again.

Of course, Seattle's win leaves the Cowboys with little margin for error the rest of the way because they are out of the playoffs at the moment because the Seahawks and Detroit Lions, also 9-4, own the tiebreaker over the Cowboys. Dallas' win at Seattle earlier this season is moot in a three-way tie.

The Cowboys could find themselves out of the playoffs even if they win 11 games. That has happened only twice: the 1985 Denver Broncos and the 2008 New England Patriots.

"

Well, for what it's worth, our experts are overwhelmingly of the opinion that Tony Romo will have a better game than Mark Sanchez Sunday night.

Romo told Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com that he's aware he'll need to step up his game after the Eagles drilled the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving:

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They won that game convincingly in all three phases. They did a great job against our defense, great job against our offense, and they did well on special teams. When you look at it, you have to understand, we can't just be a little bit better, we have to improve a lot to win.

"

Romo probably also knows that if Dallas loses the game he won't be able to read the paper for a month. Or turn on the radio. Or the TV. Or go online.

So essentially, it's win or become a shut-in.

Sleeper RB Performance

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Winner: Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts (5 votes)

Stop me if you've heard this before. An injury opens the door for a running back for the Indianapolis Colts to see an increase in playing time, and said running back then uses that bump in playing time to run circles around "starter" Trent Richardson.

I know, it's an old story.

The latest back to make Richardson look bad is third-year pro Dan Herron, who is averaging over six yards a carry over the team's last three games. Richardson, on the other hand, has gained three yards a pop over that same span.

Herron downplayed any competition with Richardson while speaking with Jodie Valade of The Cleveland Plain-Dealer, stating that he's just trying to help the team win.

"It's definitely a great opportunity for me," Herron said. "But I'm just really trying to make the best of the opportunities I get. That's really all it's about."

Our writers expect "Boom" to continue doing just that in this week's big AFC South showdown with the Houston Texans.

Others receiving votes: Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (4 votes), James Starks, Green Bay Packers (2 votes), Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Kerwynn Williams, Arizona Cardinals (2 votes)

More Mentions on TV: Andrew Luck or J.J. Watt

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Winner: J.J. Watt (8 votes)

We'll stay in Indy for our next prediction.

Sunday's tilt between the Texans and Colts features two of the league's leading candidates for Most Valuable Player in 2014 in Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and Houston defensive end J.J. Watt.

The pair will no doubt receive plenty of attention from the pregame and play-by-play crews, but whose name will be mentioned more?

Just like the folks who hand out the individual awards at season's end, AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown went with the quarterback:

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It kind of depends on what we mean by mentions. I took this literally: who will be mentioned the most over the course of the entire broadcast? My guess is that it will be Luck, mostly because of phrases like "Luck drops back," or "Luck, back to pass."

If we're talking about in-game montages or something, I think Watt has a fair case there. Nobody's going to present Ryan Fitzpatrick seriously, and Luck has competition from T.Y. Hilton there. But over the course of the entire broadcast, I need to go with Luck.

"

McCown's logic is sound, but in a category that frankly has little to do with logic, a slight majority of our experts went with Watt. Because when you mess with J.J. Watt, you've got problems.

Sleeper WR Performance

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Winner: John Brown, Arizona Cardinals (3 votes)

OK, this was on purpose. The panel was about as diverse as you can get with this week's sleeper wide receiver pick. A dozen wideouts received at least one vote.

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier went deeper than deep, combing the bottom of the barrel for a surprising choice:

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I saw a lot of Damaris Johnson in Eagles camps over the years. He is no replacement for Andre Johnson, but he's a great player to turn to if you want to just throw a bunch of screens and run two reverses to keep defenses honest while you run 35 times and attempt one or two bombs to DeAndre Hopkins. That's pretty much the Texans game plan, and I can see Damaris wiggling his way onto the highlight reel once or twice.

"

However, only two wide receivers garnered multiple votes, including rookie John Brown of the Arizona Cardinals. Brown was held off the stat sheet in Week 14 and hasn't caught more than three passes since Week 11, but as the youngster's five scoring grabs this year attest, he's a threat for a big play (and game) at any time.

Like, say, Thursday night in St. Louis.

Others receiving votes: Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons (2 votes), Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Kris Durham, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Eddie Royal, San Diego Chargers (1 vote), Jeremy Kerley, New York Jets (1 vote), Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Eric Decker, New York Jets (1 vote), Damaris Johnson, Houston Texans (1 vote), Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Winner: Tim Wright, New England Patriots (4 votes)

What is this, Congress?

Everyone has an opinion, and no two opinions are the same.

Much like with their brethren at wide receiver, we hit double digits with the nominees for this week's surprise star at tight end. NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter was one of two scribes who chose Jordan Cameron of the Cleveland Browns, while also fulfilling the mandatory Manziel mention requirement for all NFL articles this week:

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It’s going to be Johnnymania in Cleveland this weekend, and the matchup against the Bengals actually plays in his favor. The Bengals linebackers aren’t strong in coverage; I like Manziel to try and find Jordan Cameron early and often, especially after he breaks down to extend the play.

"

However, the leading vote-getter this week was New England's Tim Wright, who told Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald last week that he hopes to one day be mentioned alongside teammate Rob Gronkowski:

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I just keep working for myself to be a part of that group one day, just keep watching Gronk and keep watching the things he puts on film. I get a chance to go out there and see him on Sunday, to see what he does as well.

"

OK, Tim. Let's not get nuts.

Others receiving votes: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns (2 votes), Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles, (1 vote), Levine Toilolo, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote), Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Anthony Fasano, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (8 votes)

What, you figured that maybe, just maybe, this would be the week that Watt was dethroned from this, the spot he's occupied for every week this season save his bye?

Yeah, good luck with that, especially after Watt racked up three more sacks in last week's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

We'll turn this week's foray down the Obvious River over to our expedition leader, AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown:

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Hello, this is the auto-responder message that Rivers McCown has set up to let you know that he is selecting J.J. Watt to have the best individual defensive performance of the week.

Please shoot an email my way whenever we determine that trying to make this a topic is silly and decide to move on to something like "sleeper defensive performance" or "best performance by a cornerback"

Thank you.

"

Said he knows rivers (get it, rivers? HA! I kill me!). Never said he wasn't snarky.

Others receiving votes: Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams (2 votes), Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams (2 votes), Khalil Mack, OLB, Oakland Raiders (1 vote), Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Washington Redskins (1 vote), Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

More Tackles: Chris Borland or Bobby Wagner

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Winner: Chris Borland (14 votes)

Sunday afternoon's NFC West showdown in the Emerald City may not have the playoff ramifications we thought it would before the season, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to watch.

It's been lost amid a disastrous season by the San Francisco 49ers offensively, but rookie linebacker Chris Borland has been nothing short of a revelation. Pressed into duty due to injuries to stars NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis, Borland hasn't just held his own. He's been a monster.

Over the past six games, Borland leads the NFL with a ludicrous 86 total tackles. The former Wisconsin standout ranks second among all inside linebackers this season, per Pro Football Focus. His play has impressed teammate Justin Smith, according to Taylor Price of the team's website.

"Borland's come in there and done some stuff you really can't teach," Smith said Wednesday. "I think he's going to be a special player down the road."

Borland has also impressed our writers, who didn't give Seattle's Bobby Wagner much of a chance of out-tackling "Tackletron." OK, so the nickname needs work.

Flop of the Week

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

"Winner": Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers (5 votes)

With so much on the line for so many NFL teams in Week 15, the last thing these clubs can afford is a faceplant from a star player.

Unfortunately for the Cincinnati Bengals, that's just what NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson thinks wide receiver A.J. Green is in for in the Bengals' AFC North rematch in Cleveland:

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At first this feels blasphemous because A.J. Green just finished doing some very A.J. Green-like things against the Pittsburgh Steelers, finishing with 11 receptions for 224 yards in Week 13. And going back a little further, Green has finished with 120-plus yards in three of his last four games.

But this week he'll spend most of his afternoon across from Browns cornerback Joe Haden, a matchup that's been less than kind. Over Green's last three games against Haden, he's averaged only 6.8 yards per catch (81 yards overall on 12 receptions).

"

However, Green wasn't the week's "winner" as the player most likely to disappoint in Week 15.

That honor went to running back Eddie Lacy of the Green Bay Packers. Maybe it's the hip injury that forced the second-year pro from last week's win over the Atlanta Falcons, although head coach Mike McCarthy told ESPN's Rob Demovsky the team isn't worried:

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I don't have high concern based off the information talking with Doc McKenzie last night. Coming off a Monday night game, tomorrow will be a lot like a Tuesday. We'll see how these guys go through their examinations.

"

More likely, it's a combination of that injury and a matchup with a Buffalo Bills team that ranks eighth in the NFL against the run.

Others receiving votes: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (3 votes), Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote)