2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 13

Three NFL teams—the Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets—are officially eliminated from the postseason. For them and for others clinging loosely to playoff dreams, it's time to start thinking about the upcoming offseason and the 2015 season.

We can put these teams on the clock and begin looking at their needs and assets, but first there's the wait to see which college underclassmen (redshirt sophomores and juniors) will enter the 2015 draft. That news will start trickling in this week, and there are plenty of updates on that below for you to digest along with your Thanksgiving turkey.

As an added bonus, this week's Scouting Notebook also features a full one-round mock draft. 

The Scout's Report

— Let's get right down to it. Sources close to players and/or schools have confirmed to me that these juniors are planning to leave school for the NFL draft: Leonard Williams (DT—USC), Randy Gregory (DE—Nebraska), Shane Ray (DE—Missouri), Benardrick McKinney (ILB—Miss. State), Andrus Peat (OT—Stanford) and Alex Carter (CB—Stanford).

— Two more players are considered "close" to declaring, according to sources, and both play offensive tackle. Michigan State's Jack Conklin and Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley have both started the process of finding their draft stock.

— Will Todd Gurley declare for the draft? I'm told that's a foregone conclusion. My source says Gurley has already picked an agent and a training facility for his rehab.

— Former Ohio State defensive end Noah Spence has been ruled permanently ineligible by the Big Ten, and he tweeted this week about the added motivation for his NFL draft training. It's fair to assume the former first-round talent is headed to the pros. Spence failed two drug tests at Ohio State but has top-tier talent. He's still a likely Top 75 pick if he can prove that he's clean.

— I sent texts to five NFL scouts and asked about their work on Spence during his suspension. None had viewed his film yet, but one did return with this information: "Ohio State didn't talk about underclassmen. Will be interesting to see his background/wiring."

— It's that time of year when draft stock in the media can soar as teams put time into evaluating film. One player moving way up my board after getting a tip to watch more of him is LSU's La'el Collins. And as one scout told me this week, Collins could easily be the first tackle drafted in 2015.

— Last week I mentioned that Florida's Dante Fowler Jr. will enter the draft. Sources also tell me guard Tyler Moore will leave for the pros after the firing of head coach Will Muschamp.

— Cedric Ogbuehi has seen his draft stock drop on some media boards, but how does the NFL feel? One offensive line coach I spoke to said, "Technical flaws all over" after watching Ogbuehi's tape. The belief now is that he's more athlete than technician.

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. DE Markus Golden, Missouri

Shane Ray steals the headlines and is the better draft prospect on the Mizzou defensive line, but his linemate Markus Golden is no slouch. Golden is a natural 4-3 defensive end with the hips and burst to stand up in space as an edge-rusher if needed. He's also a little more stout against the run than Ray, even if he's not the sudden athlete we see from No. 56.

Golden has moved into a solid late second-round pick heading into the final weeks of the season.

4. RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana

Tevin Coleman started the year completely off my rankings as a running back I didn't expect to declare early for the NFL. That has all changed quickly in the past eight weeks as he ran past Big Ten defenses and impressed with speed, agility, power and the receiving skills needed to start in the pros.

Coleman is the total package as a runner—and his production can't be credited to the talent around him or the scheme at Indiana. He's doing this all on his own. That's why he's now my No. 2-ranked back behind only Todd Gurley.

3. WR Duke Williams, Auburn

The big, athletic wide receiver is here to stay, even with the NFL being dominated by smaller, shiftier targets too. It's that mold of long, leaping, physical receiver that will draw teams to Duke Williams at Auburn.

Just a junior, Williams is new to big-boy college football after spending time at Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College. He's an attacking player, though, and if fully recovered from a knee injury could be the star of the Iron Bowl against Alabama.

2. OT Jake Fisher, Oregon

Another player returning from injury, Oregon's Jake Fisher has been a bright light at left tackle for the Ducks. 

A former right tackle, Fisher has seamlessly made a transition to the left side. That's when his stock started to climb up boards—but also when it became obvious how much better the Oregon offense was with him healthy and lined up at left tackle.

In a class unsettled at left tackle, Fisher has been rising into a Round 2 grade.

1. ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA

It's easy as a scout or evaluator to start following the pattern when looking for players and allow yourself to overlook talented players who may not fit the ideal mold for a position.

You can bet a lot of NFL teams feel that way after letting Chris Borland slip to the San Francisco 49ers. And if Eric Kendricks also falls to the third round, he could be a similar steal. With a current Round 2 grade but a big chance to move up with marquee games in the next two weeks, Kendricks has taken over my No. 2 inside linebacker grade (behind junior Benardrick McKinney). 

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1. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA

Brett Hundley has been a somewhat consistent player moving down the board this year, but heading into the last weekend of November he's moved down to a Round 2-3 grade. Why the change?

Given my duties covering the NFL as well as the NFL draft, I'm oftentimes a few weeks behind the college football schedule. When I get time to binge-watch games, it results in a big update on my rankings. That was this week.

When viewing Hundley I see a quarterback who lacks instincts on the field. He may be a brilliant person off the field—I haven't done the background work on him yet due to his redshirt junior status—but on the field he's timid as a thrower and hasn't shown the skill set to win from the pocket. That gives me pause, and it makes Hundley less valuable overall.

2. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M

Another preseason prospect who generated a ton of buzz is Texas A&M tackle Cedric Ogbuehi. Following in the footsteps of Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews, Ogbuehi looked like the next high first-rounder from the Aggies. And he still might be, but right now his play is struggling.

As referenced above, I reached out to several offensive line coaches to help me make sense of Ogbuehi's struggles. The one quoted above talks about technical failures, but another pointed out that the A&M offense no longer has Johnny Manziel in it. That means defenses are attacking more and containing less, and it is at least this coach's theory on why Ogbuehi has struggled compared to 2013.

Ogbuehi is still my top-ranked tackle, but he's not playing like the top-tier prospect I viewed him as coming into the year. 

3. DE Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

If you're noticing a theme here, there is one. The top three players on the five-down list were all first-rounders on my preseason board. Calhoun, like Hundley, finds himself moving out of the top 32 spots in this week's update.

Calhoun looks the part on paper but not on the field. He's long and active but doesn't bring much in terms of hip flexibility—crucial for edge-rushers who must bend the edge against offensive tackles—and his instincts are lacking as a pass-rusher.

Calhoun is a body type and an athlete worth taking a chance on, but that's a gamble you take outside the first round.

4. RB Buck Allen, USC

USC junior running back Buck Allen has been impressive on the field at times this year—enough to catch my eye and end up in my top 10 ranking at the position. But he's moving down this week and may topple out of the top 10 after more review.

Allen is a mature player (he's 23 years old) and has shown inside running traits plus good hands. But he's also running less violent than he did earlier in the year and looks more timid finding holes in the interior. That scares me after the Trent Richardson Lesson (vision over power when scouting).

I like Allen, but he's cautiously moved down this week until more studying can be done.

5. WR Stefon Diggs, Maryland

Stefon Diggs went down with a kidney injury against Penn State, and it's been reported by head coach Randy Edsall that he'll miss the remainder of the regular season with the injury, according to CollegeFootballTalk's John Taylor. Couple that with his suspension earlier this year for a pregame fight, and the 2014 season has been a disappointment for the athletic Diggs.

As a pure receiver, I haven't seen enough traits from Diggs to justify a Top 75 grade. He's more like a third- or fourth-round receiver with big potential and some obvious athletic gifts. But will he be Tavon Austin in the NFL—a player with no true role who must be schemed touches?

Scouting Report: Randy Gregory, Nebraska

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Defensive End Randy Gregory, Nebraska (6'6", 245 lbs)

Strengths

• Ideal build with great length and strong limbs.
• Has a very good first step with a combined burst and awareness to anticipate the snap.
• Is agile enough to beat blockers with hands, hips or speed. 
• Has a frame built to add muscle and weight but is strong enough to play in Year 1.
• Very good pursuit player who attacks the ball.
• Versatile rush defender who has played end, outside and inside linebacker.
• Wingspan is off-the-charts good.
• Quick enough in space to beat blockers to the edge and has strong countermove.
• Closing speed is top-tier. One of the fastest edge players in the class.
  
  

Weaknesses

• Struggled against read-option attack when asked to tackle in space.
• Can get tied up by blockers and must learn to use hands to disengage. 
• Doesn't offer much of a bull rush due to leaner frame.
• Could be considered "boom or bust" player if projected as a 4-3 defensive end.
• Missed time in early 2014 season with a knee injury. 
• Early-season reports were that he's a "me-first" not a "team-first" player.
   

Pro Player Comparison: Aldon Smith, San Francisco 49ers 

Scouting Dictionary

"Wiring"

A lot of times you'll hear scouts quoted talking about a player's background or character or arrest record. But the word that is most used in my talks with team scouts is "wiring." 

When a scout is talking about a player's wiring, he's looking at how the player reacts mentally to the game, to coaching, to his teammates, to challenges and how he'll respond to success. When digging through all the background of a player (and for top-tier players that research goes back to junior high school), scouts are looking for keys to a player's wiring. How will he compete if drafted in the first round? Is this a player who will put the good of the team over his own success?

Scouting is a lot about football traits, but with millions of dollars on the line, a player's wiring is often just as important as his ability.

The Big Board

The NFL season is inching away, and we're getting closer to the end of the season. Here's an updated sneak peek at an updated mock draft with the post-Week 12 draft order and expected underclassmen added in.

Pick	Team	Pick	School
1	JAX	DE Randy Gregory	Nebraska
2	OAK	DT Leonard Williams	USC
3	TB	QB Marcus Mariota	Oregon
4	TEN	OLB Shane Ray	Missouri
5	NYJ	QB Jameis Winston	FSU
6	WSH	SS Landon Collins	Alabama
7	NYG	OLB Shaq Thompson	Washington
8	CAR	OT Cedric Ogbuehi	Texas A&M
9	MIN	WR Amari Cooper	Alabama
10	NO	OLB Vic Beasley	Clemson
11	STL	CB Marcus Peters	Washington
12	HOU	OT Brandon Scherff	Iowa
13	CHI	DE Bud Dupree	Kentucky
14	MIA	WR DeVante Parker	Louisville
15	CLV	WR Kevin White	West Virginia
16	CLV	DE Shawn Oakman	Baylor
17	PIT	OT La'el Collins	LSU
18	DET	DT Danny Shelton	Washington
19	BAL	CB Jalen Collins	LSU
20	SF	CB Trae Waynes	Michigan State
21	ATL	OLB Dante Fowler, Jr.	Florida
22	IND	FS Gerod Holliman	Louisville
23	SD	OT Ronnie Stanley	Notre Dame
24	KC	WR Jaelen Strong	Arizona State
25	SEA	RB Todd Gurley	Georgia
26	CIN	DT Malcolm Brown	Texas
27	DAL	DE Hau'oli Kikaha	Washington
28	PHI	CB Alex Carter	Stanford
29	GB	ILB Benardrick McKinney	Miss. State
30	DEN	OT Andrus Peat	Stanford
31	NE	NT Jordan Phillips	Oklahoma
32	ARZ	OLB Leonard Floyd	Georgia

Parting Shots

10. The 2015 Reese's Senior Bowl is shaping up to be a good one. The Senior Bowl committee announced more accepted invitations on Nov. 23. Here is the complete list of accepted invitations thus far:

S Adrian Amos, Penn State	DT Grady Jarrett, Clemson
WR Dres Anderson, Utah	RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa
LB Stephone Anthony, Clemson	CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
TE E.J. Bibbs, Iowa State	RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan St
TE Nick Boyle, Delaware	OLB Lorenzo Mauldin, Louisville
QB Shane Carden, ECU	WR Vince Mayle, Washington St
LS Joe Cardona, Navy	DT Joey Mbu, Houston
OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt	WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
WR Jamison Crowder, Duke	OG Robert Myers, Tennessee St.
DT Carl Davis, Iowa	DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA
C Reese Dismukes, Auburn	DE Nate Orchard, Utah
S Kurtis Drummond, Michigan St	S Cody Prewitt, Ole Miss
DE Bud Dupree, Kentucky	CB Quinen Rollins, Miami (OH)
CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon	CB Eric Rowe, Utah
OT Jake Fisher, Oregon	CB D'Joun Smith, Florida Atlantic
DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas	DE Preston Smith, Mississippi St.
CB Senquez Golson, Ole Miss	S Jaquiski Tartt, Samford
C Hroniss Grasu, Oregon	OG Laken Tomlinson, Duke
DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma	DT Louis Trinca-Pasat, Iowa
WR Justin Hardy, ECU	DT Gabe Wright, Auburn
OLB Mike Hull, Penn State

9. Want a great read while you're stuck on the couch way too full of turkey? Famed head coach and scout Bill Walsh spent some time in the early Internet days as a bit of a draft writer and media scout. That means a lot of his methods and ideas are out there for you to read. For free. 

Want to know what Bill Walsh looked for in a quarterback? This is a must-read for any would-be evaluator.

8. Robert Griffin III went from Heisman Trophy winner to No. 2 overall pick in the draft to Colt McCoy's backup in three seasons of NFL play in Washington. My take on this (which is my opinion, nothing sourced): Griffin is done in Washington.

If we're talking about the best scheme fits for him, it's obvious that Kansas City and Philadelphia would be perfect systems. I could also see the San Francisco 49ers as a good fit if Jim Harbaugh is back (or Griffin being with Harbaugh should he leave for a job without an established quarterback in place). But the honest reality is that Griffin is a now-average mobility quarterback who can't win in the pocket. Despite incredible arm talent, he's a work in progress and has two bad wheels to go with it.

7. This is a quarterback-heavy section but for good reason. The 2015 NFL offseason is likely to feature many teams with a need for a new starting quarterback but very few players available to fill those roles.

A conservative list of teams with a need at quarterback—Tampa Bay, Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets, Washington, St. Louis Rams and Houston Texans—compared to the players with a true Round 1 grade—Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston—shows that many teams will be looking at veterans or settling for the incumbent at the position next fall as the demand is much greater than the supply.

6. One player with the potential to add to that supply is Brett Hundley. Yes, he's referenced above as a player losing stock as of late, but Hundley has a chance to improve his standing if he can prove to scouts that his instincts are better than shown on film. Where can he do that? The Senior Bowl.

Hundley is a redshirt junior but has his degree, so he's eligible to attend the Senior Bowl. And he would be a fool to pass up the chance to prove himself in front of so many quarterback-needy teams. Hundley's stock isn't likely to get much lower based on his potential and athleticism, but it can get much higher if he excels in Mobile.

5. One more quarterback note that applies to every position: Where a player is drafted doesn't prove he is better or worse than where evaluators had him ranked predraft. You can look at EJ Manuel or Russell Wilson as recent examples of this. Just because the Buffalo Bills drafted Manuel in the first round didn't mean every evaluator who had him as a Round 2 or later player was wrong. In fact, as hindsight shows us, the Bills were wrong, and many others were right.

4. A note of interest as we get toward the end of the college season: Many underclassmen are making decisions on the NFL without waiting for a grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Board. Players like Dante Fowler and Tyler Moore at Florida or those referenced in the first item of this article have made their future plans without discussing their value with the NFL. 

That's not to say the players are wrong, and a declaration now isn't set in stone, but it's best to get as much information as possible before making a decision. And because of that, don't be surprised if some players rumored to declare change their minds by the January 15 deadline or during the 72-hour window declared players have to withdraw from the draft.

3. One good warning for underclassmen who think they're NFL ready—meet Kelcy Quarles.

The South Carolina defensive tackle had a third-round talent grade from me when he declared for the draft last January. Quarles went on to have one of the worst pro days I've ever seen—and did so in front of 32 teams looking at his teammate, Jadeveon Clowney. That, plus some off-field concerns, led to Quarles going undrafted. Picked up by the New York Giants, he was released and signed by New England before being released again and signed to the Colts practice squad.

Third-round talent in January. Undrafted practice-squad player in November.

2. The New York Jets need to fire head coach Rex Ryan and make sure all of his assistants go with him. That may sound harsh or cruel, but the Jets have zero fight in them, and that's Ryan's doing. General manager John Idzik may be next, but how the team performs (not in wins and losses, but in individual performances) will have a lot to say about his job security.

1. Let's end the week on a bright note. Any NFL team looking for a new general manager needs to call the Kansas City Chiefs and ask to speak with Chris Ballard.

I actually did that this week, but Ballard was unavailable to chat in-season. Here's what I know of him, though: At least one NFL team wanted him as its general manager last year, and more will this season after watching the Chiefs play much better than anyone expected. He's smart, dedicated and experienced enough to know how to both evaluate and value talent (something many first-time general managers fail at). 

If a general manager job comes open and Ballard is given the opportunity to hire his own head coach, he'll be at the top of many wishlists this spring.