Broncos vs. Patriots: Full Fantasy Outlook for Week 9's Marquee Matchup
The best record in the AFC is up for grabs in a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from a season ago, as Tom Brady and the Patriots—winners of 13 straight in Foxborough—host Peyton Manning and the Broncos Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET.
The AFC’s marquee matchup of Week 9 has been rightfully hyped up all week, from the quarterback rivalry—Brady is 10-5 in head-to-head matchups against Manning in his career, including postseason—to the coaching matchup, the Patriots’ home-field advantage and the weather forecast:
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Of course, this led to an epic rant by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on meteorologists and their often inaccurate weather reports—“I'm not saying I could do it better than them, I'm just saying they're wrong a lot”—and the entire transcript is pure gold coming from a coach who is generally vague and blunt during press conferences.
Per Odds Shark, this matchup opened with the highest over/under (53) among Week 9 contests and has not moved despite the projected weather reports, so fantasy football owners need not overreact. This will be a high-scoring game, and this article previews the fantasy expectations for its players.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady
Just one month ago, the Patriots were 2-2, and there was an overall sense of doom and gloom among Patriots fans as well as local and national media.
Reports of Tom Brady’s demise were greatly exaggerated, as the Patriots have won four straight since then, and Brady has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns and no interceptions during that span.
Brady has only been sacked four times during the winning streak, but the Patriots offensive line will have its hands full against a Broncos defense that enters Week 9 tied for sixth in the NFL with 23 sacks, including 12 in the team's last three games.
The Denver defense ranks 17th in the NFL against the pass but has only allowed 211 passing yards per game over the Broncos' own four-game winning streak. Philip Rivers had 252 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos last week on Thursday Night Football, and Brady is the hottest quarterback in the league right now.
Projection: 27-40, 316 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Peyton Manning
Manning claimed the career passing touchdowns record two weeks ago and added to it with three more in Week 8 on Thursday Night Football. The Chargers were playing without their top two cornerbacks—Brandon Flowers was inactive, and Jason Verrett started but exited in the second quarter.
The Patriots duo—Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner—played well in a Week 8 blowout win over the Bears, with Revis coming away with his second interception of the season.
ESPN’s Jeff Legwold previewed Belichick’s historical tendencies when facing Manning:
"Through the years, Belichick has routinely chosen coverage over pressure with Manning. The Patriots have often filled the passing lanes with defenders dropping into coverage and hoped a four-, three- or sometimes even a two-man rush on a smattering of snaps can get there if Manning has to consistently go deeper into his progressions.
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Manning completed 19 of 36 passes (52.8 percent) for 150 yards in the Broncos' Week 12 overtime loss in Foxborough last season while Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball combined for 264 yards on 44 carries, so Belichick executed that game plan to perfection.
With Chandler Jones injured, the Patriots will struggle to apply pressure if they do not blitz, but Belichick seems content to let Manning work underneath and make the Broncos rely on their running game.
Projection: 26-36, 295 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
Running Backs
Jonas Gray
If heavy winds and colder temperatures do indeed come into play, both teams may have to rely on their ground game more than they would prefer.
Jonas Gray was the Patriots' between-the-tackles workhorse last week against Chicago, rushing 17 times for 86 yards.
Still, New England’s running back usage is often a nightmare to figure out for fantasy owners, so Gray is not a recommended play against the NFL’s best rush defense. The Broncos have only allowed 72.4 yards per game on the ground and have limited opponents to 2.4 yards per carry over their last four games.
Projection: 8 rushes, 25 yards
Shane Vereen
In two matches (including postseason) against Denver last season, Shane Vereen combined for 65 rushing yards on 14 attempts with 13 receptions (on 19 targets) for 119 yards. The Broncos have allowed an average of five catches for 45 yards to running backs over their last five games, so his ability to contribute in the passing game makes him a high-upside RB2 play in PPR formats.
Projection: 10 rushes, 38 yards; 4 receptions, 38 yards
Ronnie Hillman
With six teams on bye this week, Ronnie Hillman is a legitimate top-eight option at running back. Recent head-to-head history between these two opponents suggests he will receive a plethora of touches, and New England has given up the fifth-most points to running backs this season.
In their last two games—coinciding with Jerod Mayo being placed on injured reserve (torn patellar tendon)—the Patriots have allowed 371 rushing yards on 69 attempts (5.4 yards per carry). Meanwhile, Hillman has rushed 58 times for 283 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and a pair of touchdowns in three full games since Ball suffered a groin injury in Week 5.
Projection: 17 rushes, 78 yards, 1 TD; 3 receptions, 28 yards
Juwan Thompson
Juwan Thompson vultured a pair of touchdowns from Hillman last week on Thursday Night Football but only played 13 of 71 offensive snaps, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He is a non-factor for fantasy purposes.
Wide Receivers
New England
Tight end Rob Gronkowski has been Brady’s favorite target over the Patriots' four-game win streak (see below), which should open up the field for wide receivers Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell to show well in a high-volume passing attack, though Denver has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year behind their cornerback duo of Chris Harris and Aquib Talib.
Edelman only caught one pass on four targets in last week’s rout of Chicago and has averaged only 4.6 receptions for 41.4 yards per game since Week 4 after a strong start to the season (22 catches for 260 yards through Week 3). He has a favorable matchup this week against rookie slot corner Bradley Roby, who has been graded poorly by Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and combined for 19 catches for 199 yards and three touchdowns in two games (including postseason) against Denver a season ago.
LaFell played in 61 of 75 offensive snaps last week, per PFF, hauling in all 11 targets for 124 yards and finding the end zone for the fourth time in five games. The bulk of that damage, however, went against Bears cornerback Al Louis-Jean, who entered in the second quarter after a recurring hip injury sidelined rookie Kyle Fuller. Shy away from starting LaFell if possible.
Projections: Edelman—6 receptions, 73 yards, 1 TD; LaFell—3 receptions, 42 yards
Denver
The Patriots have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are must-start receivers regardless of matchup.
Since Denver’s Week 4 bye, Thomas has seen a team-high 49 targets and gone off for 34 catches, 626 yards and five touchdowns—a ridiculous 16-game pace, if you are a fan of extrapolating numbers.
Both Thomas and Sanders rank among the top 10 in receiving yardage, and both are sure-fire WR1 options given the abundance of byes in Week 9. Sanders did not find the end zone until Week 7 this season but has four 100-yard games to his credit and caught all nine targets for 120 yards and three scores on Thursday Night Football a week ago.
How the Patriots will utilize their secondary remains a question mark, but ESPN analyst Louis Riddick expects Browner to line up against Thomas and Darrelle Revis against Sanders:
Wes Welker faces the Patriots for the third time since signing with the Broncos prior to last season but has been a virtual fantasy non-factor for three straight weeks. Additionally, he only combined for eight catches and 69 yards in the two meetings a year ago.
Projections: Thomas—7 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD; Sanders—5 receptions, 67 yards, 1 TD; Welker—2 receptions, 20 yards
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski went off for nine catches, 149 yards and three touchdowns last week against Chicago and has a reasonable chance at being fantasy football’s top tight end for the remainder of the season.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Gronkowski has played 75.4 percent of the Patriots' offensive snaps over their four-game winning streak, compared to 51 percent in their first four games of the season as he worked his way back from a torn ACL suffered last December.
The Broncos have allowed 15.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends over their last five games, including a pair of red-zone touchdowns on eight receptions for 54 yards last week by Antonio Gates on Thursday Night Football.
Gronkowski has been targeted a team-high 39 times during the Patriots' four-game winning streak, and it is safe to expect another huge game from him this week.
Projection: 8 receptions, 94 yards, 2 TD
Julius Thomas
Tim Wright is a touchdown-dependent fantasy option and only played 29.3 percent of snaps last week, per PFF, despite finishing with seven catches for 61 yards and a score. The bulk of his yardage came in the second half with Gronkowski battling dehydration, and he is not a recommended fantasy play.
Julius Thomas opened the season on a historic touchdown pace but has not found the end zone in the Broncos' last two games. The Patriots have allowed touchdowns to tight ends in each of the last two weeks and have given up 17.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends over their last five games.
Thomas did not play in the Broncos' regular-season game against New England last season with a knee injury but had eight catches for 85 yards in the AFC Championship Game. He is a good bet to get back into the end zone this week.
Projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD
Final Score
Regardless of fantasy implications, this will be a compelling game to watch featuring two teams that went a combined 8-0 in October with an average margin of victory of nearly 18 points, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Broncos are currently three-point favorites, per Odds Shark, marking only the fourth time since 2003 that New England is a home underdog.
Final Prediction: Broncos 28, Patriots 24
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