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Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) celebrates making a first down catch during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2014. The Steelers won 51-34. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) celebrates making a first down catch during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2014. The Steelers won 51-34. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Fantasy Football Week 9: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

Tyler ConwayOct 27, 2014

After weeks of relative silence on the bye front—Week 4 has been the only major wave of off days thus far—Week 9 has arrived like a swift kick to the stomach. Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Matt Forte and about 800 others who don't qualify for the rule of three are off.    

Gone are players from three of the four NFC North teams and basically all of the usable players from a fantasy perspective in that division. Also sitting out next Sunday are teams featuring promising young players in Tennessee and Buffalo, along with disappointing but still usable ones in Atlanta.

For once, the waiver wire will be used to atone for an NFL-related absence rather than injuries of our own futility. It might actually feel cathartic to drop an underperforming player while knowing an actual good one will be returning a week from now. OK, check that—I know waiving goodbye to Zac Stacy will be among the happiest moments of my year.

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But before we get to the whole waiver craziness, it's time to check in on the guys who will actually take the field this coming week. Let's hope I can find enough of them to fill out these rankings.

New Orleans at Carolina8:25 p.m.
Washington at Minnesota1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland1 p.m.
Arizona at Dallas1 p.m.
Philadelphia at Houston1 p.m.
NY Jets at Kansas City1 p.m.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati1 p.m.
San Diego at Miami1 p.m.
St. Louis at San Francisco4:05 p.m.
Denver at New England4:25 p.m.
Oakland at Seattle4:25 p.m.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh8:30 p.m.
Indianapolis at NY Giants8:30 p.m.
AtlantaBuffalo
ChicagoDetroit
Green BayTennessee

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 9 or are on the schedule for Monday night.) 

1Peyton Manning, DEN22 Points
2Andrew Luck, IND22 Points
3Drew Brees, NO21 Points
4Cam Newton, CAR20 Points
5Tom Brady, NE18 Points
6Philip Rivers, SD18 Points
7Nick Foles, PHI17 Points
8Carson Palmer, ARI17 Points
9Russell Wilson, SEA16 Points
10Tony Romo, DAL16 Points
11Colin Kaepernick, SF16 Points
12Andy Dalton, CIN16 Points
13Ben Roethlisberger, PIT16 Points
14Eli Manning, NYG15 Points
15Ryan Tannehill, MIA15 Points
16Joe Flacco, BAL14 Points
17Alex Smith, KC14 Points
18Colt McCoy, WAS13 Points
19Brian Hoyer, CLE13 Points
20Austin Davis, STL13 Points

Top Dog: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Manning is the human fantasy football cheat code. After Thursday's 35-21 thrashing of San Diego, Manning is on pace to throw for 50 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. Keeping that pace would make the five-time MVP the first player in league history with multiple 50-touchdown seasons—a fitting record in a campaign full of them.

It's befuddling to think three years ago we were worried about whether Manning would ever play football again. Now defensive coordinators wonder if he'll ever stop. The Broncos have surrounded him with top-level skill-position talent, and Manning somehow places lame-duck throws more accurately than players who spin Aaron Rodgers-level spirals.

The dude is just incredible. As we head into Manning vs. Brady XXLXXLELXWAYTOOMANY (I'm bad at Roman numerals), it'll be fun to marvel at these greats one more (last?) time. 

Sleeper: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Putting Carson Palmer in your starting lineup is a one-way ticket to avoiding the Cardinals game at all costs. Nothing Palmer does on a football field is pretty at this point. Everything from a 30-yard post to a six-yard slant looks like it takes painstaking effort. Palmer, who was drafted five years after Manning, looks five years older.

But the results speak for themselves. Palmer has thrown two touchdowns in each of his four starts this season and hasn't dipped below the 250-yard mark. While much of his 329-yard day in Week 8 can be attributed to a semi-flukish 80-yard Larry Fitzgerald touchdown, it was also a byproduct of the Eagles' mistake-prone secondary.

Arizona takes on a Dallas defense that is far shakier than point totals and yardage numbers suggest. Football Outsiders' DVOA metric had the Cowboys 19th in overall defense coming into this week. Palmer should be a solid bye-week play available in most leagues.

Beware: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Always beware of the typically middling player a week after he goes God Mode. Prior to Sunday's 522-yard, six-touchdown bonanza at Heinz Field, Roethlisberger was averaging 265 yards and a little under 1.5 touchdowns per game. He was a perfectly middle-of-the-road option, someone thrown in whenever a star went down with an injury or during a bye.

Bake in his numbers from Sunday and suddenly Roethlisberger looks like an MVP candidate. His pace numbers suggest he'll thrown for 4,760 yards and 32 touchdowns against six interceptions, an expectation wildly out of line with historical context. Big Ben will regress to his career mean going forward. Treat the win over Indy as an unexpected boon rather than a marker of what to expect.

1DeMarco Murray, DAL20 Points
2Arian Foster, HOU18 Points
3Andre Ellington, ARI17 Points
4Jamaal Charles, KC17 Points
5LeSean McCoy, PHI17 Points
6Le'Veon Bell, PIT16 Points
7Marshawn Lynch, SEA15 Points
8Ronnie Hillman, DEN15 Points
9Lamar Miller, MIA14 Points
10Mark Ingram, NO14 Points
11Ahmad Bradshaw, IND13 Points
12Jerick McKinnon, MIN13 Points
13Branden Oliver, SD12 Points
14Ben Tate, CLE12 Points
15Justin Forsett, BAL12 Points
16Frank Gore, SF11 Points
17Giovani Bernard, CIN11 Points
18Chris Ivory, NYJ10 Points
19Jonas Gray, NE10 Points
20Denard Robinson, JAX9 Points
21Alfred Morris, WAS9 Points
22Andre Williams, NYG8 Points
23Trent Richardson, IND7 Points
24Darren McFadden, OAK7 Points
25Jonathan Stewart, CAR6 Points
26Shane Vereen, NE5 Points
27Tre Mason, STL5 Points
28Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL5 Points
29Charles Sims, TB5 Points
30Chris Johnson, NYJ4 Points

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

It's possible Murray's wheels fall off Monday night against Washington and this ranking looks silly by the time you open the page. Assuming Murray gets through his eighth straight game healthy, though, there is no reason to switch up the status quo.

The former Oklahoma star leads the NFL in nearly every major rushing category, with the most important being carries and yards. Scott Linehan is feeding his running back at a 1975-level clip at a time when running back carries are disappearing faster than Barnes & Noble stores. There are legitimate long-term concerns here about Murray's workload, but those don't apply to fantasy owners.

As long as the Cowboys and Murray are happy with the record workload, nothing will change atop the running back rankings.

Sleeper: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Ingram used to be a sleeper only in the context that his running style was a leading cause of narcolepsy. The former first-round pick spent his first three NFL seasons deep in the depths of Bustville, rarely breaking runs longer than a handful of yards and struggling to carve out a role.

While injuries robbed him of a three-game stretch earlier this season, Ingram is 3-for-4 turning in solid performances in 2014. He had a career-high 172 yards and a touchdown in Sunday night's win over the Packers, running with a style reminiscent of his days at Alabama. For the season, Ingram is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and is already one away from matching his career-high touchdown mark.

It's not quite a breakout on the level of Murray, but the Saints appear to have found a competent "lead" back. New Orleans heads to Carolina on Thursday. The Panthers defense, among the most ferocious attacks in 2013, has been reduced to a pack of kitty cats. This should be the week where Ingram emerges as an every-week start.

Beware: Any Tampa Bay Running Back

Because:

A) The Buccaneers are bad at football.

B) Doug Martin left Sunday's game with an ankle injury.

C) Doug Martin has not been good when healthy.

D) Bobby Rainey and Mike James are listed as the backups, which engenders exactly zero faith.

E) Charles Sims, the Bucs' talented third-round pick, could make his NFL debut this week. Sims has the highest upside of this trio but might work his way back into the fold slowly.

F) The Buccaneers are bad at football.

1Demaryius Thomas, DEN18 Points
2Antonio Brown, PIT17 Points
3Dez Bryant, DAL16 Points
4Jeremy Maclin, PHI16 Points
5T.Y. Hilton, IND14 Points
6Emmanuel Sanders, DEN14 Points
7A.J. Green, CIN13 Points
8Kelvin Benjamin, CAR12 Points
9Steve Smith, BAL12 Points
10Mike Wallace, MIA11 Points
11Andre Johnson, HOU10 Points
12Doug Baldwin, SEA10 Points
13Brandon LaFell, NE9 Points
14Rueben Randle, NYG8 Points
15Vincent Jackson, TB8 Points
16Keenan Allen, SD8 Points
17Marques Colston, NO7 Points
18Pierre Garcon, WAS7 Points
19Reggie Wayne, IND7 Points
20Larry Fitzgerald, ARI7 Points
21DeAndre Hopkins, HOU7 Points
22Andrew Hawkins, CLE7 Points
23Odell Beckham Jr., NYG6 Points
24Mohamed Sanu, CIN6 Points
25Brandin Cooks, NO6 Points
26Andre Holmes, OAK6 Points
27Wes Welker, DEN6 Points
28Allen Robinson, JAX5 Points
29Julian Edelman, NE5 Points
30Anquan Boldin, SF5 Points
31Greg Jennings, MIN5 Points
32DeSean Jackson, WAS5 Points
33Terrance Williams, DAL5 Points
34Eric Decker, NYJ5 Points
35Dwayne Bowe, KC5 Points
36Kenny Britt, STL4 Points
37James Jones, OAK4 Points
38Percy Harvin, NYJ4 Points
39Cecil Shorts, JAX4 Points
40Michael Crabtree, SF4 Points

Top Dog: Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

The first three weeks of 2014 saw Demaryius look like the second Thomas in command in Denver's offense. His subsequent three performances have made him look like the best receiver in football. Thomas has gone over 100 yards each game and has five total touchdowns since the Broncos' Week 4 bye, including games of 226 and 171 yards.

As we've established, Peyton Manning remains good at football. For as long as he's upright Thomas will be a top-five option. Plus, wide receiver is a horror show this week because of byes. Putting him and Antonio Brown atop the rankings was the easiest decision of my Monday morning.

Sleeper: Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots

Gleaning fantasy information from a Bill Belichick team is a weekly migraine. It's almost as if Belichick uses the regular season as his own personal playground designed specifically to prod analysts and reporters. 

Case in point: Welcome to relevance, Brandon LaFell. The offseason signee made 11 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's rout of Chicago, marking yet another seemingly random Patriots breakout. LaFell had seen ramped-up duty of late, but there seemed to be a clear hierarchy between him and Julian Edelman.

That may no longer be the case. Edelman was targeted four times to LaFell's 11 and has had four or fewer fantasy points in four of his last five games. With Rob Gronkowski back at close to 100 percent, there may only be room for one relevant New England wideout. Sunday hinted that person will be LaFell.

Beware: The Entire Wide Receiver Position

No, seriously. Wide receiver is a post apocalyptic hellscape. For funsies, here's a list of notable players who aren't available in Week 9: Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Jerry Rice, Randall Cobb, Michael Irvin, Tim Brown and Kendall Wright.

Only three of those players are retired.

1Rob Gronkowski, NE14 Points
2Julius Thomas, DEN12 Points
3Jimmy Graham, NO10 Points
4Antonio Gates, SD8 Points
5Greg Olsen, CAR7 Points
6Jordan Reed, WAS7 Points
7Vernon Davis, SF6 Points
8Dwayne Allen, IND6 Points
9Heath Miller, PIT6 Points
10Zach Ertz, PHI5 Points
11Jared Cook, STL5 Points
12Travis Kelce, KC5 Points
13Jason Witten, DAL4 Points
14Larry Donnell, NYG4 Points
15Charles Clay, MIA4 Points

Top Dog: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

In 58 career games, Rob Gronkowski has scored 49 touchdowns. To put that in perspective, only nine tight ends since the merger have 50 or more receiving touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. All of those players except Antonio Gates have scored on average a touchdown in less than half of their games.

Gronkowski would have to go without a touchdown for his next 40 games to even reach the 50 percent mark. When healthy, he's among the greatest red-zone threats in NFL history. With his snaps ramping up and his body appearing as close to full strength as it'll get, Gronkowski may separate himself from Julius Thomas and Jimmy Graham going forward.

At the very least, everyone who rolled the dice on him in August is in a constant state of Gronk Spike.

Sleeper: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders

Tight end isn't nearly as depleted as wideout this week, so it's unlikely anyone is desperate enough to start a Raiders tight end. But if by some miracle you're in a league where masochism earns extra points, Rivera might be worth a roll of the dice.

The Tennessee product had the best game of his career in Week 8, grabbing seven passes for 83 yards in Oakland's loss to the Browns. Having made only five receptions for 39 yards in his previous four games, odds are this is an outlier. 

But the Seahawks have been killed by opposing tight ends on the red zone this season, allowing an NFL-high eight touchdowns heading into this week. (The Jets already tied the mark and the Cowboys have their chance later Monday.) Rivera is a sneaky play in super-deep leagues.

Beware: Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns

From Pro Bowler in 2013 to fantasy irrelevance in 2014. Not only has Cameron's season been riddled with injuries but he's not been all that effective when on the field. He's not eclipsed three receptions in a game yet and has only one game where he's put up more than four fantasy points.

The tight end isn't used the same in Kyle Shanahan's system as it was under Norv Turner. With ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler reporting Cameron suffered a concussion against Oakland, there's no good reason to have him in your lineup. He's probably droppable in standard formats.

1Cincinnati Bengalsvs. Jacksonville Jaguars16 Points
2Cleveland Brownsvs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers15 Points
3Seattle Seahawksvs. Oakland Raiders13 Points
4Philadelphia Eaglesat Houston Texans11 Points
5Kansas City Chiefsvs. New York Jets10 Points
6San Francisco 49ersvs. St. Louis Rams10 Points
7Minnesota Vikingsvs. Washington8 Points
8San Diego Chargersat Miami Dolphins8 Points
9Washingtonat Minnesota Vikings7 Points
10Baltimore Ravensat Pittsburgh Steelers7 Points
11Jacksonville Jaguarsat Cincinnati Bengals7 Points
12Tampa Bay Buccaneersat Cleveland Browns6 Points
13New Orleans Saintsat Carolina Panthers6 Points
14Arizona Cardinalsat Dallas Cowboys6 Points
15Dallas Cowboysvs. Arizona Cardinals5 Points

Top Dog: Cincinnati Bengals

Blake Bortles is, umm, [tries to think of a proper way to context this while giving him leeway because he's a rookie] mistake prone. Yes. That's it. Prone to one or two (or six) throws per game that make you wonder if he'd played football before that particular Sunday.

The third overall pick has 12 interceptions over his first 208 pass attempts, good for by far the highest interception rate in football. Kirk Cousins, who was benched for Colt Freaking McCoy, throws picks significantly less often. As does Geno Smith. Samesies for Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Foles and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are tied for the fifth-most interceptions in football. This is not going to end well for Mr. Bortles.

Sleeper: Cleveland Browns

Available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN.com leagues, the Browns get to play the Buccaneers this week. That sentence is all the justification I need.

Beware: Houston Texans

The Texans have struggled defending the pass most of the season, ranking near the bottom in every major statistical category. Their opponent in Week 9, the Eagles, have thrown the ball more often than all but three teams despite already having their bye.

Nick Foles hasn't been great making those throws, mind you. On average, though, Philly should take advantage of enough breakdowns in the Houston secondary to make this an untenable setup from a fantasy perspective. 

1Stephen Gostkowski, NE12 Points
2Dan Bailey, DAL11 Points
3Cody Parkey, PHI11 Points
4Phil Dawson, SF11 Points
5Adam Vinatieri, IND10 Points
6Chandler Catanzaro, ARI10 Points
7Justin Tucker, BAL10 Points
8Graham Gano, CAR9 Points
9Nick Novak, SD9 Points
10Steven Hauschka, SEA8 Points
11Blair Walsh, MIN8 Points
12Shayne Graham, NO7 Points
13Brandon McManus, DEN7 Points
14Shaun Suisham, PIT7 Points
15Randy Bullock, HOU7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

If it isn't broke, don't fix it. Gostkowski is the best kicker in football. The Patriots offense is going to play a Denver team that will be satisfied holding them to field goals rather than stopping them outright. 

Sleeper: Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona Cardinals

He's been among the top-scoring kickers all season and is still available in a ton of leagues. The Cardinals offense has been consistent enough that he's an every-week start. Still haven't figured out how to say his last name, though.

Beware: Of Haunted Houses

They're a rip-off. Also, beware of kickers on bad teams. But whatever. The important lesson is do not pay $25 to walk through a poorly lit barn with some poorly hung fake spider webs and your neighbor Sue dressed up as a witch. I don't care if it benefits the local church. Get better at your jobs, haunted house organizers.

Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or less of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Carson PalmerQBArizona Cardinals13.4%
Ronnie HillmanRBDenver Broncos30.2%
Denard RobinsonRBJacksonville Jaguars16.4%
Anthony DixonRBBuffalo Bills4.1%
Charles SimsRBTampa Bay Buccaneers0.2%
Jonas GrayRBNew England Patriots0.1%
Odell Beckham Jr.WRNew York Giants22.7%
Andre HolmesWROakland Raiders14.2%
Andrew HawkinsWRCleveland Browns9.9%
Brandon LaFellWRNew England Patriots8.8%
Allen RobinsonWRJacksonville Jaguars3.8%

Grab Him Now: Ronnie Hillman (RB, Denver Broncos)

If Montee Ball regains his starting role when he returns from injury, someone needs to put John Fox through an intervention. The Denver offense, which soared the early part of the season despite its sputtering running game, has looked markedly better with Hillman behind Manning.

Hillman has rushed for 283 yards and two touchdowns over the last three weeks, mixing in pass-catching skills as a safety valve underneath. The Broncos are averaging 37.25 points in the games where Hillman has received a majority of the work against 25 per contest when Ball totes the rock more.

The only issue from a fantasy perspective is goal-line carries, which appear headed the way of players other than Ronnie Hillman. Juwan Thompson scored twice from the fullback spot Thursday, and Ball will probably get most short-yardage looks when he returns. That said, this isn't 2004. Running backs can have value now even if they're not scoring a ton if they get a consistent volume of work.

Hillman has done enough to earn the starting job in Denver.

Stash Him While You Can: Charles Sims (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

We already alluded to the mess that is the Buccaneers running back situation. Doug Martin is ineffective and was on the trade block before getting injured, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Rainey has been shaky during his limited run with Martin out of the lineup, and Lovie Smith appears to have no interest in putting James in his backfield.

All of this lines up perfectly for Sims, who is a second-half breakout candidate. The versatile speedster, who split his collegiate days between Houston and West Virginia, is a perfect fit on paper for Smith's preferred offensive style. He showed soft hands and a patient, albeit still explosive running style, which drew comparisons to Matt Forte even before his former coach drafted him.

Tampa lacks a coherent offensive structure, so it's hard to see him blasting out of the gate into top-10 status. There are too many variables here, most critically with the Bucs' struggling offensive line. With an ankle injury keeping him on short-term injured reserve for the first half, it's best to take a hands-off approach and see how he's deployed.

If you have a free roster spot, though, Sims is one of the best stash candidates available.

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool: 

Doug MartinRBTampa Bay Buccaneers98.1%
Shonn GreeneRBTennessee Titans77.6%
Zac StacyRBSt. Louis Rams89.6%
C.J. SpillerRBBuffalo Bills70.4%
Toby GerhartRBJacksonville Jaguars81.7%
Chris JohnsonRBNew York Jets85.7%
Adrian PetersonRBMinnesota Vikings77.8%
Donald BrownRBSan Diego Chargers62.7%
Ray RiceRBFree Agent65.6%
Danny WoodheadRBSan Diego Chargers62.9%
LeGarrette BlountRBPittsburgh Steelers69.4%
Maurice Jones-DrewRBOakland Raiders77.6%
Stevan RidleyRBNew England Patriots66.4%
Knowshon MorenoRBMiami Dolphins66.6%
Percy HarvinWRNew York Jets96.1%
Brian QuickWRSt. Louis Rams50.1%
Victor CruzWRNew York Giants74.9%
Danny AmendolaWRNew England Patriots73.9%
Hakeem NicksWRIndianapolis Colts64.5%
Dennis PittaTEBaltimore Ravens58.1%
Kyle RudolphTEMinnesota Vikings55.6%

Top Drop of the Week: Percy Harvin (WR, New York Jets)

Since it appears we're in the midst of Persecute Percy October (that would be so much better if there were a month starting with P), let us join in on the party.

Harvin made his Jets debut Sunday and it went largely as expected. He was on the field for 44 offensive snaps, per Rich Cimini of ESPN.com, and was given the ball in low-risk situations, with the Jets hoping he'd make something out of nothing.

Those nothings were largely kept as just that. You've probably already seen the hilariously failed trick kickoff return. Harvin also managed to gain only 50 yards from scrimmage on his seven offensive touches, continuing a run of ineffectiveness dating back to his Seattle days.

For the season, Harvin's 25 receptions have resulted in 155 yards. His 15 rushing attempts have been more successful at eight yards a clip, but a good amount of that production came on one 51-yard run in Week 2.

Things aren't suddenly going to get better in New York. I'm not sure if you're aware, but going from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith/Michael Vick/Fireman Ed/Random Guy on the Street is a downgrade. Harvin is a dynamic player who can affect the game in myriad ways when he's being used correctly.

I have zero faith that anything will happen correctly with this Jets team.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

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