Fantasy Football Week 5 Predictions

We enter the second month of the NFL and fantasy seasons, which means we have plenty of data to mine for weekly lineup decisions and matchup plays. Here's arguably the No. 1 thing we learned through September: The Jacksonville Jaguars are the best at...the matchup you indubitably want your fantasy players facing.

Enter Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Jags are dead last in total defense and against the pass, quarterbacks, defense/special teams and kickers in fantasy. At least they have the rest to lean on—not really—running backs (third worst), wide receivers (second worst) and tight ends (third). 

The Jags also start rookie quarterback Blake Bortles at home for the first time in his NFL career. Regardless of what you think of Bortles, you have to expect Mike Tomlin's defense to make it tough on him.

Big Ben said he sees a lot of himself in Bortles, per Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. We are going to see a lot of Big Ben and his boys in the end zone at Jacksonville, as we project in Bleacher Report's Week 5 predictions.

Here we outline the MVP, breakouts, busts, bounce-back players, position-by-position matchup plays and the top waiver-wire options in this packed 10-piece slideshow.

MVP

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

Projected Stat Line: 280 yards passing, four touchdowns

Rivers has thrown three touchdown passes in each of his past two home games, one of which was an upset victory over the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom, the NFL's defending champions. This week should be as bountiful as any for the fringe fantasy play.

Rivers will get to pick apart a young, raw and ailing New York Jets secondary that has (uncharacteristically in the Rex Ryan era) given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, per FFToday.com. The Jets have given up nine passing touchdowns to no interceptions. That's a pretty good ratio for Rivers and company to be lining up against Sunday.

What's more, the Chargers running back situation is a mess right now. Donald Brown has just 41 rushes for 81 yards since taking over for the injured Ryan Mathews (knee) and Danny Woodhead (out for the season). This game, like most for the Chargers, is all on Rivers' capable right arm.

Rivers is hot, as he told Newsday's Anthony Rieber, and has the experience to pick apart the blitz-happy Jets.

"

I think from a completion percentage-wise, it's probably as good a groove as I've been in. We've put together three pretty solid weeks all the way around in terms of the passing game. ... I think we've done a heck of a job handling the pressure we've faced. And I always try to get the ball out of my hand quick. The Jets are well-known for all the blitzes, and rightfully so. They never let you get a feel for them.

"

Rivers and all his passing complements—Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal, Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates and perhaps even Ladarius Green—are intriguing plays, particularly if they come as bargains in daily leagues. 

Honorable Mention

• Ben Roethlisberger/Le'Veon Bell/Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (at New York Giants)
• Eli Manning/Rashad Jennings/Victor Cruz, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• Drew Brees/Jimmy Graham/Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Nick Foles/LeSean McCoy/Jeremy Maclin/Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. St. Louis Rams)
• Aaron Rodgers/Eddie Lacy/Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Biggest Breakout Star

Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (vs. Cleveland Browns) 

Projected Stat Line: 110 yards rushing, five catches for 40 yards and two touchdowns

We have been waiting for Sankey to emerge as a fantasy monster with the Titans, but he has been introduced to NFL action slowly behind starter Shonn Greene. It is time to take the diapers off a rook named Bishop (chess pun entirely intentional).

But don't just take our word for it. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt alluded to the same on his Nashville radio show this week, according to John Glennon of The Tennessean:

"

You will see (more reps for Sankey). That's coming. And I think you'll see more of that earlier in the game this week. I think one of the things that does get lost is that he had more snaps in the game last week than any of our running backs. That game [got] a little one-sided quickly, so maybe it wasn't as evident, but he was in there earlier.

"

Yowzers!

Sankey has needed time to improve his footwork and pass protection, but Whisenhunt sounds ready to unleash a beast:

"

There's only so much that a young guy, you can throw on his plate, because you want him to continue on this curve where he is improving and getting better. He's made strides and done some of the things we've asked him, and in turn, he's going to get more reps and they're going to be earlier in the game. He's going to get in the game earlier no matter what because he's a good football player, but that's coming.

"

It is perfect timing, too, not only for fantasy owners who are looking for an option during the bye season. The Cleveland Browns are the second-worst team in fantasy against running backs, according to FFToday.com. Le'Veon Bell, Mark Ingram and Lorenzo Taliaferro each had productive games against the Browns, who are coming off a bye. Expect the Browns to be rusty and get gashed against one of the burgeoning best young offensive lines in football.

Sankey has 23 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown through his first four NFL games. He is going to trump that production in this one against the Browns alone. 

Honorable Mention

• Darrin Reaves, Carolina Panthers (vs. Chicago Bears)
• Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Montee Ball, Denver Broncos (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
• Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
• Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)

Biggest Bust

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks (at Washington Redskins)

Projected Stat Line: 45 yards rushing and no touchdowns

You won't be sitting Lynch in any fantasy leagues, especially coming off a bye week, but the Seahawks are a much better team at home than on the road. Lynch can be impacted by that, particularly if Seattle shows some rust after the extended break.

Most notably, the Redskins are a top-10 rushing defense and are still No. 3 against fantasy running backs after getting blown out by the New York Giants. The Redskins are going to play better at home this time around next Monday night and take away the run and force Russell Wilson into obvious passing situations.

The Washington Post's Mike Jones noted the Seahawks are 10-1 under head coach Pete Carroll on Monday Night Football and riding an eight-game winning streak in those games. The Redskins are exactly the opposite, having lost six consecutive prime-time games and ranking 25th among 32 teams on MNF.

Ouch. That adds up to a solid performance from Lynch and the Seahawks. We believe the Redskins and a fairly solid run defense will make sure that doesn't happen here, though.

Dishonorable Mention

• RB Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Denver Broncos)
• C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills (at Detroit Lions)
• Kirk Cousins/Alfred Morris/Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson/Jordan Reed/Niles Paul, Washington Redskins (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
• D/ST St. Louis Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles)
• D/ST Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)
• D/ST Arizona Cardinals (at Denver Broncos)
• D/ST Houston Texans (at Dallas Cowboys)

Biggest Bounce-Back Player

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. St. Louis Rams) 

Projected Stat Line: 100 yards rushing, four catches for 45 yards and two touchdowns

Let's whip out the puns here: We will finally see the real McCoy this week in Philly, and the real Slim Shady is going to stand up against the Rams. Grimace all you want at the cheap cliches; McCoy's fantasy owners will finally get something to smile about.

McCoy told Martin Frank of USA Today: I am the real Slim Shady. 

"

It's definitely frustrating, knowing what type of player you are, and you want to put the numbers up. Then again, I know who I am. I'm still confident. I know what I can do. It doesn't really bother me that much. We're winning games. We're 3-1. At times, it can be frustrating, but at the end of the day, I know who I am.

"

McCoy and the Eagles know they need their running game for their offense to work. They will get it going back at home against the Rams after facing two of the better run defenses in football the past two weeks, the Washington Redskins (10th) and San Francisco 49ers (fourth).

The Rams defense is not bad up front, but it isn't impenetrable either. The Eagles will re-assert themselves up front, particularly with run-game mauling tackle Lane Johnson returning from his four-game suspension, as The Philadelphia Enquirer's Zach Berman reported.

Coach Chip Kelly told CSNPhilly.com's Reuben Frank:

"

We got whooped up front. We're not very good up front right now. We've got a lot of guys banged up. That's not an excuse, it's just the reality. ... At least there's help on the way. We'll get Lane in here and see what he can do and maybe that will add a little stability to it, but we really need to get it figured out.

"

They will, along with Nick Foles and the rest of the Eagles offense coming off that loss at San Francisco.

Honorable Mention

• QB Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. St. Louis Rams)
• RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
• QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
• WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo Bills)
• RB Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)
• RB Arian Foster, Houston Texans (at Dallas Cowboys)
• RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)

Top QB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams against fantasy QBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. St. Louis Rams)
3. Denver Broncos (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
4. New York Jets (at San Diego Chargers)
5. Chicago Bears (at Carolina Panthers)
6. Washington Redskins (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
7. New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Stat Line: 290 yards passing, three touchdowns

This might seem like a cop-out after Big Ben's 314 yards and three touchdowns last week, but he is just the 13th-ranked quarterback in scoring right now and was just the 16th one off the board in preseason average draft position.

Big Ben now travels to Jacksonville, where Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards and four TDs in Week 3. The Jags have been getting ripped on the ground and through the air but now have Blake Bortles as their starting quarterback, so they might be able to keep up a bit better in a high-scoring game.

Antonio Brown is scorching, Heath Miller is a consistent threat, and Markus Wheaton and Justin Brown might even be sleeper plays in daily leagues. The only concern here is whether Bortles and the Jags can keep this game interesting enough in the second half to keep LeGarrette Blount from grinding out the clock in garbage time. We think Bortles can.

Honorable Mention

• QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (vs. New York Jets)
• QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (at Washington Redskins)
• QB Eli Manning, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (vs. Chicago Bears)
• QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)
• QB Austin Davis, St. Louis Rams (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Top RB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy RBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Atlanta Falcons (at New York Giants)
2. Cleveland Browns (at Tennessee Titans)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
4. Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
5. New England Patriots (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
6. Carolina Panthers (vs. Chicago Bears)
7. Oakland Raiders (bye)
8. New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Rashad Jennings, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Projected Stat Line: 110 yards rushing, four catches for 40 yards and two touchdowns

Fantasy owners might be a bit turned off by the usage of rookie grinder Andre Williams in Week 4, but Jennings was coming off a 34-carry performance on a short week, and the Giants blew out the Washington Redskins, giving Williams an opportunity.

Against the Falcons' 30th-ranked run defense, expect a heavy dose of Jennings...and Williams, for that matter. Jennings is a must-start back in all leagues now, while Williams is a nice flex play in favorable matchups such as this one through the bye season.

By the way, Jennings is capitalizing on his new fantasy love by asking fantasy owners to send him jokes on Twitter, per TMZ.com.

Honorable Mention

• LeGarrette Blount, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (at Cleveland Browns)
• Matt Asiata/Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)
• Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (at New England Patriots)
• Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)
• Bernard Pierce/Lorenzo Taliaferro/Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)

Top WR Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy WRs, per FFToday.com:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
3. New York Jets (at San Diego Chargers)
4. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. St. Louis Rams)
6. New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
7. Chicago Bears (at Carolina Panthers)
8. Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)

Marques Colston/Brandin Cooks/Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints

Projected Stat Line: 270 yards receiving, three touchdowns combined

Drew Brees and the Saints offense haven't truly gotten it going yet, but this game has the potential to get ugly in New Orleans. The Bucs were trashed in Atlanta's Georgia Dome, and the Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Saints famously play better at home, and Brees is overdue for a trademark 400-yard, five-touchdown performance. The Bucs are tied with the Saints for the NFL's fourth-worst pass defense, so this is a great week to expect numbers from all of the Saints' primary targets, particularly with the running game figuring to be slightly less of a factor against a still-capable Bucs front seven.

Colston is a must-start option in all leagues, while you should feel good about sneaking Cooks and Stills in there at least as flex plays. They should provide a great bargain in daily formats, too.

Let's give real optimistic projections of 90 yards and a touchdown for each, and that's not even counting the damage Jimmy Graham will do. This could be another long day for the Bucs.

Honorable Mention

• Rueben Randle, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• Keenan Allen/Eddie Royal, San Diego Chargers (vs. New York Jets)
• Michael Crabtree/Anquan Boldin/Stevie Johnson, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
• Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles)
• Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)

Top TE Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy TEs, per FFToday.com:

1. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Houston Texans)
2. Seattle Seahawks (at Washington Redskins)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
4. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
5. Washington Redskins (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
7. Kansas City Chiefs (at San Francisco 49ers)
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)

Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Projected Stat Line: Five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown

Walker is scorching hot, and the Titans are at home in a winnable game against the Browns and their sixth-worst pass defense. Perhaps most importantly, starting quarterback Jake Locker (wrist) is expecting to play, according to The Associated Press' Teresa M. Walker on the Titans' official website.

Walker has emerged a must-start fantasy tight end in most matchups, but this week's looks like it could be one of the most favorable ones, especially if Locker plays over struggling backup Charlie Whitehurst and rookie Zach Mettenberger.

Walker (shoulder) has his own injury worry, but he has played through it and proved productive. Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean reports Walker was limited in practice, but we should fully expect him to play and play well.

Honorable Mention

• Larry Donnell, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
• Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (vs. Chicago Bears)
• Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
• Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)
• Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles)

Top D/ST Matchup Plays

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy D/STs, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
2. St. Louis Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints)
4. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
5. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Houston Texans)
6. Miami Dolphins (bye)
7. Washington Redskins (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
8. New York Jets (at San Diego Chargers)

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Projected Stat Line: Four sacks, three turnovers and one touchdown

The Steelers defense doesn't carry the weight or the big stick it used to, but we should expect it to play well against the worst team in fantasy against just about everything, especially and including D/STs. The Steelers remain available in almost 70 percent of ESPN.com leagues, too.

Throw in that Mike Tomlin's boys are coming off a disappointing effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and will be facing a rookie quarterback who is making his first home NFL start, and you have myriad reasons to consider the Steelers an intriguing streaming play.

Honorable Mention

• Detroit Lions D/ST (vs. Buffalo Bills)
• San Diego Chargers D/ST (vs. New York Jets)
• Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
• New Orleans Saints D/ST (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
• Dallas Cowboys D/ST (vs. Houston Texans)

Top Waiver-Wire Options

We have already broken down the waiver-wire favorites in B/R's Week 5 Insider Notebook. Here are the top 10 most-added players in CBSSports.com leagues since Tuesday's waivers run:

1. WR Eddie Royal, San Diego Chargers: He is a hot hand facing a great matchup against the raw New York Jets secondary.
2. RB Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings: He will be the feature back by the end of the year if Adrian Peterson (indefinite suspension) does not return.
3. K Steven Hauschka, Seattle Seahawks: He is off his bye and a set-it-and-forget-it kicker the rest of the season.
4. QB Eli Manning, New York Giants: He has finally taken to the West Coast offense, so this just might be a rebound year for him yet.
5. TE Larry Donnell, New York Giants: The converted small-college quarterback has some freakish athleticism that makes him a red-zone threat.
6. RB Darrin Reaves, Carolina Panthers: He will be leading the Panthers running back committee with DeAngelo Williams (ankle) and Jonathan Stewart (knee) out.
7. RB Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens: He was the latest leader of a three-headed monster that will soon be led again by Bernard Pierce and ultimately by Lorenzo Taliaferro for the long term.
8. RB Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns: The Browns will go with the hot hand, which means talented undrafted rookie Isaiah Crowell might not be more valuable than Tate and West now.
9. TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers: The veteran just keeps chugging under the radar.
10. TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Production, playing time and targets are finally catching up to his physical gifts.

In case you missed out on those guys or need lower-end sleepers in deeper leagues, here are three favorites relative to matchup that you should consider off waivers this week:

Quarterbacks

1. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)
2. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (at San Francisco 49ers): Revenge factor anyone?
3. Austin Davis, St. Louis Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles)

Running Backs

1. Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers) 
2. Darrin Reaves, Carolina Panthers (vs. Chicago Bears)
3. Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts)

Wide Receivers

1. Rueben Randle, New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
2. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
3. Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings (at Green Bay Packers)

Tight Ends

1. Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams (at Philadelphia Eagles)
2. Garrett Graham, Houston Texans (at Dallas Cowboys)
3. Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks (at Washington Redskins)

Defense/Special Teams

1. Detroit Lions (vs. Buffalo Bills)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
3. San Diego Chargers (vs. New York Jets)

Kickers

1. Shayne Graham, New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
2. Mike Nugent, Cincinnati Bengals (at New England Patriots)
3. Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay Packers)

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.