NFL Picks and Predictions Week 4: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide
After an awful Week 1, yours truly—the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate—has rebounded nicely, winning with the New York Giants this past Thursday night to pull to 25-23-1 against the spread.
But as it concerns sports gambling, all that matters is what happens next.
In this week's edition of the Ultimate Bettor's Guide, I present to you the following:
- A five-pack of best bets, all of which have been played by yours truly in the Hilton SuperContest (sponsored by OddsShark)
- Picks for every single game against the spread
- Over/under best bets
- A surefire survivor pick
It's time to make some money, peeps.
Here is the Ultimate Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 4, powered by OddsShark.
Total Season ATS: 25-23-1 (including NY Giants this past Thursday night)
Total Season Best Bets ATS: 9-6
Thursday Night Football: NY Giants at Washington
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Final Score: New York Giants 45, Washington 14 (NY Giants cover +3.5)
I have good news and bad news!
The good news: I picked the Giants and played them on the money line, so I'm off to a nice start in Week 4.
The bad news: After (unsuccessfully) taking the road team in the SuperContest (my entry, of course, was sponsored by OddsShark) in the past two weeks (looking at you, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers), I declined to roll with the Giants.
This was an utter demolition, and the Giants now have the look and feel of a playoff contender, which is a sentence I didn't think I'd type until 2015 at the earliest. Eli Manning is in complete control of the offense, and the pass rush has been better than expected.
As it concerns the Redskins...well, it hasn't been their best week as a franchise. In between South Park ethering their team nickname and Kirk Cousins reverting back to, well, Kirk Cousins, it's been a disastrous last 72 hours for the team in our nation's capital.
The Giants have a tasty home matchup next week against the Atlanta Falcons, and it’s going to be tough for this native New Yorker to not ride Big Blue for as long as they remain hot.
Now, excuse me while I try and rationalize my decision to not play the Giants in this week’s SuperContest.
Green Bay at Chicago
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Line: Green Bay at Chicago (+1.5)
Take a good look at the picture above. Do you know who that man is?
In case you've forgotten, his name is Aaron Rodgers. He is the starting quarterback of the Green Bay Packers.
And he's about to unleash a whooping on the Chicago Bears.
Rodgers (along with the entire Packers offense) has yet to truly hit his stride this season. Fortunately for him and Packers bettors, the Bears will provide the perfect tonic for his ails.
You see, Rodgers beats the Bears like a drum. If he had financial escalators in his contract for destroying the Bears, he'd be a billionaire (9-3 career record). And if there were one play that perfectly summed up Rodgers' Windy City domination, it'd be this one (avert thine eyes, Bears fans).
I don't mean to be disrespectful toward the Bears—in fact, I've picked them to cover in the last two weeks—but they aren't going to be able to contain Rodgers. People are questioning Rodgers and the Packers offense, and the last time that happened, he rained hellfire and brimstone down upon the Houston Texans.
At his best, Rodgers morphs into football's version of Galactus: a veritable destroyer of worlds. On Sunday, he will lay waste to the Bears.
Again.
Give me the Packers—and their star quarterback—with supreme confidence.
The Pick: Green Bay -1.5
Carolina at Baltimore
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Line: Carolina at Baltimore (-3.5)
Current Baltimore Ravens receiver Steve Smith Sr. is the greatest player in the history of the Carolina Panthers. But he was callously released this offseason by Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman.
Now, like a modern-day Inigo Montoya, Smith has his opportunity for revenge when the Ravens host the Panthers. And he's going to get it.
For all the offseason hoopla about the Panthers' depleted wide receiving corps (which the dumbass writing this contributed to), the offensive line has been a much bigger issue, as adequate protection has not been provided to quarterback Cam Newton.
The Ravens defense will smell blood in the water and attack mercilessly.
And on the other side of the ball, Smith will be the single most entertaining player in the league this weekend. I'd recommend he be miked up, but the language would probably make Andrew Dice Clay blush. He's going to use and abuse Carolina's secondary and is good for at least one touchdown.
And in the aftermath of the Ravens' victory, it's possible that Smith's postgame interview will put Richard Sherman's famous outburst to shame.
Give me Smith and the Ravens with confidence.
The Pick: Baltimore -3.5
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Buffalo at Houston
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Line: Buffalo at Houston (-3)
There are many things in life that I just don't have a damn clue about. I don't understand women. I have no idea what actually happened at Roswell. And, for the life of me, I can't figure out why those 100-calorie snack packs are so darn tasty. How do they do it?
But one thing I am sure about is this: Former Buffalo Bills and current Houston Texans starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick stinks. The only thing worse than Fitzpatrick's play might be his beard, which gives him the look of a drunk homeless dude ready to start speaking in tongues on the subway.
Fitzpatrick spent four years stinking it up in Buffalo and is now doing the same thing in Houston. After fooling the masses by throwing for three touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the first two games of the season, Fitzpatrick revealed his true self—like a hokey villain in a late-90s video game—by tossing three hideous interceptions last week against the downtrodden Giants.
Bills fans will surely cringe at the sight of Fitzpatrick on Sunday, with PTSD-style flashbacks to his awful tenure in Western New York. But they'll then smile as Fitzpatrick makes bad decision after bad decision with the football, belying his Harvard education and making it seem like he dropped out of community college after one booze-fueled semester.
The question you need to ask yourself is this: Could you see the Bills winning this game outright? I can, and it's because I believe Fitzpatrick stinks.
That makes Buffalo the pick.
The Pick: Buffalo +3
Tennessee at Indianapolis
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Line: Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7.5)
Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker is questionable for Sunday's game in Indianapolis against the Colts.
If he is unable to start Sunday, Charlie Whitehurst—aka "Clipboard Jesus"—will be under center for the Titans.
And you know what that means.
The Pick: Indianapolis -7.5
Detroit at NY Jets
6 of 14
Line: Detroit at New York Jets (+2)
Ladies and gentlemen, it hasn't happened yet this season.
What is "it," you ask?
"It" is the hideous series of decisions and throws made by Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford that ultimately cost his team the game.
If I were a betting man—and who the hell am I kidding, I'm the captain of #TeamDegenerate—I would wager that this is the game in which Stafford melts down late, leading to the Lions losing.
Think about it: The Lions are riding high. They're feeling good about themselves. Coach Jim Caldwell might actually be registering a pulse! And now, a road date in New York against a Rex Ryan defense awaits.
I can't wait for the backbreaking interception. I'm salivating over the prospect of a forced fumble in a key spot. And most importantly, I'm looking forward to the Lions shooting themselves in the foot in Schwartz-ian fashion, leading to a New York Jets win.
Thanks in advance for the turnovers, Stafford. My wallet and I appreciate it.
The Pick: NY Jets +2
Miami at Oakland (Game in London)
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Line: Miami at Oakland (+3.5)
To all the members of #TeamDegenerate, I issue this public plea: For the love of all things holy, please do not bet on this game.
Sunday's affair in London between the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders is a contest that no one in his right mind should wager on. It features two bad football teams with two head coaches on the hot seat playing in front of an indifferent crowd.
That, dear readers, is a recipe for financial disaster.
The Dolphins are quickly descending into dumpster fire status, with their embattled coach, Joe Philbin, playing public mind games with his supposed franchise quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. Yeah, that'll go over well.
And if the Dolphins are descending into dumpster fire status, the Raiders are already there, and it's a towering, noisome inferno. Coach Dennis Allen is one grotesque performance away from being canned, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that owner Mark Davis could leave him in London if the team loses.
If I had to forecast an outcome for this game, I'd roll with the Dolphins. I think Tannehill will play well and get the critics off his back for a week, and the Miami defensive line should harass Raiders quarterback Derek Carr all game.
But again: I do not advise #TeamDegenerate members to wager on this stinker of a game.
The Pick: Miami -3.5
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
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Line: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (-7.5)
I have zero confidence in my pick for this game, but before we get there, let me offer my rationale.
The Buccaneers could not have looked worse than they did last Thursday night in Atlanta. I offer this sentence with zero hyperbole: I have never seen a "professional" football team play as poorly and look as unprepared as the Bucs did against the Falcons. They would have had to ascend about fifty levels to be called an embarrassment.
Meanwhile, the Steelers looked like an amalgamation of the '85 Bears and '07 Patriots in a thorough ass-whooping of the Panthers in Carolina. Running back Le'Veon Bell is a veritable superstar, and the defense was much improved.
Taking those two factors into account, it's safe to assume that the Buccaneers are being undervalued and the Steelers are being overvalued.
And with Mike Glennon set to start at quarterback for the ailing (and horrendous) Josh McCown, per Adam Schefter of ESPN, it's very possible that the Bucs offense will start to resemble that of an NFL club rather than a DIII school.
I'm going to take the Buccaneers, but I do so with zero confidence. When in doubt, take the points.
The Pick: Tampa Bay +7.5
Jacksonville at San Diego
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Line: Jacksonville at San Diego (-13.5)
Last week, I vowed that I was done with the Jacksonville Jaguars until they inserted rookie quarterback Blake Bortles into the starting lineup.
Well, Bortles will be starting Sunday for the 0-3 (and 0-3 ATS) Jaguars, so I guess I'm back in on the Jaguars, right?
Wrong.
The Jaguars still stink, and they're playing on the road against one of the best teams in the league. And the San Diego Chargers are also the diametric opposite of the Jags, having covered in all three of their games thus far this season.
I might decide to jump back on the Jaguars bandwagon (known affectionately in Duval as the "Gus Bus") once Bortles earns the team a victory, but that ain't happening this week.
The Chargers are the better team, and the number doesn't scare me. And it shouldn't scare you either.
The Pick: San Diego -13.5
Atlanta at Minnesota
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Line: Atlanta at Minnesota (+3)
The Atlanta Falcons are flying high, coming off a 56-14 demolition of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Conversely, the Minnesota Vikings are riding a two-game losing streak, and with Matt Cassel out for the season with a foot injury, rookie Teddy Bridgewater is locked in as the team's starting quarterback.
Logic and reason point to the Falcons being the right play in this game. But my dear readers, I spit in the face and logic and reason (sometimes, at least). This game is set up for the Vikings to cover the spread.
Atlanta is a bit overvalued on the heels of last week's whitewashing of the Bucs on national television, while the Vikings defense has quietly played well. I expect Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner to get the ball in the hands of playmaking receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and work Bridgewater into an early rhythm.
I don't think the Vikings will win the game—I'm picking the Falcons outright—but I do like Minnesota to cover the spread.
The Pick: Minnesota +3
Philadelphia at San Francisco
11 of 14
Line: Philadelphia at San Francisco (-5)
The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-0 and flying high.
The San Francisco 49ers are 1-2 and panic is running rampant in the Bay Area.
So, naturally, when one surveys the spread and sees the 49ers are favored by five points, the initial inclination will be that it's too many points, and the lean will be on the Eagles.
That's exactly what Vegas wants you to think.
Vegas wants you to get suckered in to taking the Eagles. Vegas wants you to lose your money. Vegas needs a new pair of shoes, damn it, and you're going to pay for them!
Unless, of course, you wager on the 49ers.
The Eagles might be 3-0, but they're the first team in NFL history to start 3-0 despite trailing by a double-digit deficit in each contest, so it's not like they've been super impressive. And let's not forget that the 49ers have been to three straight NFC Championship Games and possess a hell of a roster.
The Eagles aren't as good as their record would indicate, while the 49ers aren't as bad as theirs would indicate. The game is also being played in San Francisco, and it's most definitely of the must-win variety for coach Jim Harbaugh and Co.
I like the 49ers to win by at least seven points and prove to the world that they're still a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The Pick: San Francisco -5
Sunday Night Football: New Orleans at Dallas
12 of 14
Line: New Orleans at Dallas (+3)
This is it. This is the gift we've all been waiting for.
The spread of this game—New Orleans (-3) in Dallas—is Las Vegas' way of making up any losses we may have incurred over the first month of the season.
It's simultaneously exciting and scary as hell.
I've written before about Vegas' equivalent of the Jedi mind trick, where a line is so obvious that it's begging you to take one team. In this game, that team is the Saints.
Dallas' defense has played better than expected, but the unit is not very good. The Saints should be able to absolutely destroy it and put up 40 points.
Bottom line: The Saints are the better team, and it's not close.
So, why is the line only three points?
Vegas desperately wants the public to take the Cowboys, which means this game probably won't be the blowout I expect it to be. Dallas does have a good ground game, and it could theoretically keep the ball out of Drew Brees' hands.
But I don't care. I'm going with my gut. I'm going with what I know. And what I know is that the Saints are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, while the Cowboys are destined for a top-10 draft pick.
The Pick: New Orleans -3
Monday Night Football: New England at Kansas City
13 of 14
Line: New England at Kansas City (+3.5)
The New England Patriots might be 2-1, but they haven't been particularly impressive in getting there. And as B/R's Mike Tanier wrote, there is reason for concern in Foxborough.
That said, they're still better than the Kansas City Chiefs.
Whenever I'm unsure about a particular spread—and to be clear, this one gave me pause—I remember the head coach and quarterback matchup. One team employs the Hall of Fame duo of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The other will be trotting out Andy Reid and Alex Smith.
Is it possible that the Chiefs pass rush, keyed by linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, could devastate the awful Patriots offensive line? Yes.
Is it possible that Smith could dink and dunk the Patriots defense into submission and that running backs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis could gash the Pats? Yes.
But at the end of the day, it comes down to trust. And I trust Brady and Belichick.
The Pick: New England -3.5
Surefire Locks of the Week
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Best Bets of the Week ATS
1.) Green Bay (-1.5 at Chicago)
2.) New Orleans (-3 at Dallas)
3.) San Francisco (-5.5 vs. Philadelphia)
4.) New England (-3.5 at Kansas City)
5.) San Diego (-13.5 vs. Jacksonville)
Best "Under" Bets of the Week
1.) Carolina at Baltimore (under 40.5 points)
2.) Jacksonville at San Diego (under 45 points)
Best "Over" Bets of the Week
1.) Green Bay at Chicago (over 49.5 points)
2.) New Orleans at Dallas (over 53 points)
Survivor Pick of the Week
San Diego over Jacksonville
All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.
Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!
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