Fantasy Football Week 4 Predictions

Sometimes bold predictions wind up looking dumb. Like saying the Dallas Cowboys defense would be a mess and something to take advantage of in fantasy.

That might have been the case early this season, but it won't be this week. Tony Romo and the Cowboys just haven't played a great offensive team yet. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are indeed that, even if they struggle on the road.

We fully expect the Cowboys-Saints game to be a wildly entertaining contest that goes bonkers for fantasy owners. We love following the NFL lines and the highest total with these predictions, even if the data to date doesn't necessarily support it.

Bleacher Report presents its Week 4 predictions in this slideshow, with some leaning on players who might have started slowly (Romo, Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte) but are finally facing the right circumstances.

MVP

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (at Dallas Cowboys)

Projected Stat Line: 365 passing yards and four touchdowns

We go back to the well here after Brees was good for a modest 293-2 performance at home against the Minnesota Vikings defense. Now, he gets a crack at the Cowboys defense, which came into the year looking like it might be the most vulnerable in the league.

Dallas hasn't played poorly yet, but we should fully expect this Cowboys-Saints game to push the number, which is easily the highest on the board this week at 53, per Odds Shark. Either quarterback or DeMarco Murray could be the fantasy MVP coming out of this game.

We are going to side with Brees playing comeback kid on the road, where the Saints have been struggling. Brees is 0-2 on the young season on the road, with just three touchdowns to two interceptions. Brees is going to trump that touchdown total in this game alone.

The Cowboys have had some typical Dallas-like drama with their secondary this week, as cornerback Morris Claiborne was temporarily away from the team after being upset he was being benched for Orlando Scandrick, per ESPN.com's Jean-Jacques Taylor.

Head coach Jason Garrett told Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:

"

He didn't take that news very well. We're going to discipline him, but we're going to keep how we discipline him in house, and we'll move forward. It's behind us.

He understood that he made a mistake. Guys are competitors. When they hear news that doesn't go their way, different guys react different ways. He obviously knew that he didn’t react the right way. ...

We feel like he's a talented player. We feel like he just needs to play. When he's been banged up and missed a lot of time, that has a negative impact on his development, there's no question about that. He wants to be a good player. He's going to keep competing for a role on this defense, and we'll see how his development continues going forward.

"

The Cowboys gave up 31 points to the St. Louis Rams and quarterback Austin Davis last week, who went for 327 yards and three touchdowns. You have to assume Brees will be better than that.

You should consider starting all of Brees' weapons in this one, particularly with six teams on bye. Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks and even Kenny Stills are solid plays in your lineups after the cemented Jimmy Graham.

Honorable Mentions 

QB Tony Romo/DeMarco Murray/Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans Saints)

QB Aaron Rodgers/RB Eddie Lacy/WR Jordy Nelson/WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)

QB Philip Rivers/RB Donald Brown/WR Keenan Allen/TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

QB Jay Cutler/RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

QB Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (vs. New York Giants)

Biggest Breakout Star

RB Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Projected Stat Line: 120 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving and two touchdowns

Sometimes all you need is an opportunity. The Chargers' Brown now has one, with receiving back Danny Woodhead (ankle) out for the season and previous starter Ryan Mathews (knee) out for at least a month.

Brown received a whopping 31 carries and five receptions last week, an unheard-of touch total in this modern age of running back rotations. Brown touched the ball on 36 of the Chargers' 63 offensive plays, according to Kevin Acee of U-T San Diego. That is a great ratio if you're looking for fantasy production.

The thing is, the Chargers just don't have much depth after being decimated by injury. Only rookie Brandon Oliver was on the roster until the team brought in journeyman veteran Shaun Draughn off the street.

San Diego signed Brown this offseason to be a contributor in a three-pronged running back attack. He is all that is left.

"I love winning, so whatever it takes to win that's what I'm here for, whether it's one carry or all the carries," Brown told Acee. "We have to keep rolling. We have no choice."

Philip Rivers hasn't handed off to a running back so many times since 2006, in the heyday of LaDainian Tomlinson.

Rivers told Acee, "Donald is a true pro. He takes care of his body. He's going to get the load of it here for a while. ... He physically can handle it. Now, I don't think we want to give it to him 30 times the next six weeks, eight weeks. But he can handle it."

The best part of picking up Brown off waivers this week isn't even the heavy workload. It is the matchup. The Jags have been the worst team in fantasy against running backs (FFToday.com) through three weeks. Boo yeah!

Honorable Mentions 

QB Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

QB Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)

RB Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints (at Dallas Cowboys)

RB Andre Williams, New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)

Biggest Bust

Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions (at New York Jets) 

Projected Stat Line: 25 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and no touchdowns

This might be a bit disconcerting for Bush owners, who finally got reasonable production out of him last week against the Green Bay Packers. Here are the problems with him this week, though:

1. He is in a full timeshare with Joique Bell, who does the short-yardage and clock-grinding work.
2. The New York Jets are beasts against the run and fantasy running backs.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford praised Bush's 2014 season breakout in Week 3 to David Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

"

He did a great job. He was great in the passing game, really good in the running game. He was ball-secure. It was awesome. He's a guy that creates matchup issues, and when we get him space, he's electric and he showed that (Sunday). I'm just happy for him. Didn't get as many touches as he's probably accustomed to in the first two games, but he came out (Sunday) with some fire and made every one of those touches count.

"

Bush has barely gotten more time than Bell to date this season, which has affected his fantasy production. Birkett reported Bush received 37 snaps to Bell's 36 against the Packers.

Half of the action against the Jets is not going to cut it this week. The Jets have allowed the fewest rushing yards and fantasy points to running backs through three weeks, per FFToday.com. This is the NFL's No. 1-ranked rush defense, corralling preseason top-five fantasy backs Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte in back-to-back weeks.

If you have viable reserve options, such as Donald Brown, Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson or even Carlos Hyde, you might want to sit Bush and/or Bell.

Honorable Mentions

RB Chris Johnson/RB Chris Ivory/WR Eric Decker, New York Jets (vs. Detroit Lions)

RB Rashad Jennings, New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)

QB Nick Foles/RB LeSean McCoy/WR Jeremy Maclin/TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (at San Francisco 49ers)

Biggest Bounce-Back Player

Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)

Projected Stat Line: 105 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving and two touchdowns

You have to be frustrated with Lacy's production through three weeks of the season, but you cannot forget the gauntlet the second-year back has run through—err, been befuddled by—during that time. The Packers have played at the Seattle Seahawks, versus the New York Jets and at the Detroit Lions.

Those are arguably the three best run defenses in football. They are No. 5, No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the current rush defense rankings. 

Lacy now draws the Bears, who are improved against the run after being legendarily bad a year ago. The Bears are in the top 10 right now, but they are going to get beaten up by a motivated Lacy here. Fantasy owners, stick by your first-rounder, as we wrote Tuesday in Bleacher Report's Week 4 Fantasy Insider Notebook.

As we chronicled in B/R's Week 4 Big Board, even Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is fed up with the slow-starting Lacy and Green Bay's struggling running game through three weeks, telling Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

"

Eddie needs to play better. I'm not going to do this anymore. I don't correct individuals in the media. We've seen the film, corrections have been made, our running game wasn't nearly what it needed to be. Not even close. ...

Offensively, really going through it the run game was nowhere close to what our plan going in (was). Giving up nine points, as far as the fumble returned for a touchdown and during the safety, it was obviously a critical factor during the game. The run game was disappointing.

"

It turns around here, especially because the team's focus is in the right place in a pivotal division matchup at Chicago. Keep Lacy active in all leagues. He has been a victim of tough matchups.

Honorable Mentions

RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)

QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans Saints)

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

WR Keenan Allen/TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

WR Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans Saints)

Top QB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams against fantasy QBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (at San Francisco 49ers)
3. Denver Broncos (bye)
4. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)
5. New York Jets (vs. Detroit Lions)
6. New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)
7. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
8. Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Projected Stat Line: 350 yards passing, three touchdowns

Think about these numbers this week: 284-3. Those were Rivers' numbers in his one home game this year, throwing for three scores to venerable future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates.

Now, remember those came against the Legion of Boom, arguably the best secondary in football, if not NFL history.

The Jags come to town last against fantasy quarterbacks and pass defense. Rivers wasn't drafted as a starter in standard fantasy leagues, despite coming off a rebound year in 2013. He was just the 15th quarterback, per FantasyPros.com's average draft position.

There might not be anyone better this week in this matchup, particularly with six teams on bye and Peyton Manning being among the idle passers. Manning couldn't even do what Rivers did to Seattle. You watched the Super Bowl, right?

Chargers running backs Ryan Mathews (knee) and Danny Woodhead (ankle) are out, and Donald Brown is coming off a 36-touch game, so the offensive onus figures to fall more on Rivers' capable right shoulder.

Rivers knows games aren't played on paper, though.

He told Vito Stellino of The Florida Times-Union:

"

That's why they're going to play the game on Sunday. If you just went off numbers and went off stats. ... I've been here long enough and know players on that team that have won a bunch of games in this league. We have to be ready to play our best game yet.

"

Rivers will. That is great news for frustrated Keenan Allen owners.

Honorable Mentions

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at New York Jets)

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (vs. New York Giants)

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)

Top RB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy RBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)
2. Cleveland Browns (bye)
3. Atlanta Falcons (at Minnesota Vikings)
4. Miami Dolphins (vs. Oakland Raiders in London, England)
5. Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
6. Oakland Raiders (vs. Miami Dolphins in London, England)
7. Carolina Panthers (at Baltimore Ravens)
8. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints (at Dallas Cowboys)

Projected Stat Line: 55 yards rushing, 55 yards receiving and two touchdowns

We go off the grid a bit on this one, stacking the Saints against the Cowboys in what should be a wild game—but one that won't abandon the running backs. The Cowboys defense has been a lot better than expected, but it isn't as if the San Francisco 49ers, the Tennessee Titans and the St. Louis Rams are offensive juggernauts.

The Cowboys haven't faced an offense like the Saints offense yet, and the Saints have shown they are a lot more committed to the run than they have been in recent years. New Orleans is No. 6 in the NFL in rushing thus far. 

Both Thomas and Khiry Robinson figure to be used heavily and wind up productive plays for fantasy owners. Robinson does most of the rushing work, but both will be involved in the passing game and in the red zone, which is where the big fantasy points pile up.

Expect both the Saints and the Cowboys to nab points and fantasy production here. Use Thomas and Robinson in any league, especially with six teams on bye and the running back options a bit thinned out.

Honorable Mentions

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)

Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (vs. Oakland Raiders in London, England)

Shonn Greene, Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis Colts)

Top WR Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy WRs, per FFToday.com:

1. San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (at San Francisco 49ers)
4. New York Jets (vs. Detroit Lions)
5. Washington Redskins (vs. New York Giants)
6. New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)
7. Buffalo Bills (at Houston Texans)
8. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Carolina Panthers)

Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Projected Stat Line: Seven catches for 120 yards and two touchdowns

Allen was questionable a week ago with a groin issue that wound up limiting him to just two receptions for 17 yards. Those are numbers that make fantasy owners want to kick him in the groin.

Don't worry, though, because the projections are looking up for the receiver against the Jags' last-ranked pass defense.

Jacksonville is not in the bottom eight, but it is not much better as the 11th-worst team in fantasy against wideouts. The squad has yet to allow a 100-yard receiver, but it will here. The Chargers need more production out of the passing game back at home with the running backs thinned out and Donald Brown coming off a 36-touch effort last week.

Expect a huge rebound performance from Allen, who needed the time to rest his ailing groin. He is practicing in full this week, according to the official NFL injury report (credentials required). 

Honorable Mentions

Michael Crabtree/Anquan Boldin/Stevie Johnson, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (at New York Jets)

Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins (vs. New York Giants)

Victor Cruz/Rueben Randle, New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)

Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins (vs. Buffalo Bills)

Top TE Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy TEs, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)
2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans Saints)
3. Seattle Seahawks (bye)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
5. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. New England Patriots)
7. Detroit Lions (at New York Jets)
8. Denver Broncos (bye)

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans Saints)

Projected Stat Line: Five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown

You have to be hating your selection of Witten at tight end in the middle rounds. The 32-year-old looks as if he has finally shown his age for fantasy owners, a reason you probably should have been wary of him in drafts, as we said this summer.

We are going to go out and project a nice rebound game for the veteran, especially because that Cowboys-Saints game is going to get loose. Witten is going to find the end zone against a Saints defense that has actually been sixth-best in fantasy against tight ends.

Still, the Saints have the fourth-worst pass defense, and Tony Romo is going to work on getting the ball back in the hands of his longtime buddy. Jason Garrett isn't giving up on Witten, telling Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:

"

You've heard me say this many times: He's the most complete tight end in football and has been for the last 10 years. He's willing to block from the line of scrimmage, in the backfield, run any kind of route you ask him to run, do anything you ask him to do. It's all for the team, all as well as he can do it. He's a great example for the rest of us.

"

Witten has played 210 snaps this season, and 115 have been of the blocking variety, according to Machota's report.

"I think we're committed to running the football," Witten is quoted as saying. "I think everybody is waiting for that to break and it's not. There is a complete commitment to running the football and continuing to run the football."

Romo hasn't necessarily played a wide-open game yet. This one will be that, which plays right into Witten's hands.

Pick him up if he was dropped or stick with him as your starter here.

Honorable Mentions

Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Niles Paul, Washington Redskins (vs. New York Giants)

Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Larry Donnell, New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)

Top D/ST Matchup Plays

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy D/STs, per FFToday.com:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Pittsburgh Steelers)
3. Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans Saints)
4. St. Louis Rams (bye)
5. Miami Dolphins (vs. Oakland Raiders in London, England)
6. New York Jets (vs. Detroit Lions)
7. Atlanta Falcons (at Minnesota Vikings)
8. New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)

Detroit Lions (at New York Jets)

Projected Stat Line: Four sacks, three turnovers and one touchdown

The Lions have made a defensive transformation, which has been a long time coming. They are currently third against the pass, No. 1 against the run and No. 1 overall.

This isn't smoke and mirrors, either. The Lions have played some pretty good quarterbacks and running backs through three games. Now, they get the suspect New York Jets with a struggling Geno Smith under center.

The Lions are going to take away the run and pin their ears back against Smith, who figures to be error-prone against collapsing pressure from Ndamukong Suh and others. The Lions are the No. 1 D/ST on B/R's Week 4 Big Board and are still available in almost 63 percent of ESPN.com leagues and 41 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.

Heck, the Lions proved against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers that they might be best unit in all of fantasy for the rest of the season, not just a great Week 4 streaming play against an iffy quarterback and mediocre offense.

Honorable Mentions

Miami Dolphins (at Oakland Raiders)

Houston Texans (vs. Buffalo Bills)

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)

San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Top Waiver-Wire Options

We have already outlined the best of the waiver-wire options in B/R's aforementioned Week 4 Insider Notebook. Here are the top 10 most-added players in ESPN.com leagues: 

1. D/ST San Diego Chargers
2. RB Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings
3. QB Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
4. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts
5. TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
6. K Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles
7. WR Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers
8. WR Devin Hester, Atlanta Falcons
9. TE Larry Donnell, New York Giants
10. D/ST Detroit Lions

Some you should avoid, such as Hester because Harry Douglas will be healthy this week.

If you missed out on some of the other options, here are our favorite sleeper pickups by position due to their matchups:

Quarterbacks

1. Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)
2. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
3. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)

Running Backs

1. Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints (at Dallas Cowboys)
2. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Carolina Panthers)
3. Alfred Blue, Houston Texans (vs. Buffalo Bills)

Wide Receivers

1. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)
2. Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)
3. Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars (at San Diego Chargers)

Tight Ends

1. Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Carolina Panthers)
2. Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)
3. Larry Donnell, New York Giants (at Washington Redskins)

Defense/Special Teams

1. Detroit Lions (at New York Jets)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
3. Miami Dolphins (at Oakland Raiders)

Kickers

1. Nick Novak, San Diego Chargers (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
2. Alex Henery, Detroit Lions (at New York Jets)
3. Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers (at Baltimore Ravens)

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.