Fantasy Football Week 9: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players

Timothy RappFeatured ColumnistOctober 31, 2013

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 27: Calvin Johnson #81 of the Detroit Lions warms up prior to the start of the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Ford Field on October 27, 2013 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Leon Halip/Getty Images

Hello, everyone. My name is Tim, and I'm addicted to fantasy football trades.

I don't always make trades, of course, but I'm constantly on the phone with my fellow owners, looking for ways to improve my team. I'm really proud of the trade that landed me Stevan Ridley for Jay Cutler a month ago, but I've gotten far more unorthodox than that. 

I'll trade for waiver placement so I can nab that player that is about to blow up. In keeper leagues, I never hesitate to deal away late-round draft picks. I once offered a ham sandwich for Eli Manning, though the deal fell through due to my lack of dijon mustard. 

The point is, I'm constantly evaluating player value, looking at creative trade scenarios and trying to improve my team. Consider the following trade-value chart and analysis a glimpse into my wheeling and dealing mind.

 

Notes: The top 100 players were determined by using the current ESPN standard-scoring league rankings, calculating each player's "value over replacement player" (VORP for short) and by projecting a player's value for the rest of the season.

VORP was calculated by determining how many additional (or fewer) points per week a player scored compared to the best bench player at his position in 10-team leagues (No. 11 quarterback and tight end; No. 26 running back and wide receiver, taking the flex into account). Games missed due to injury or suspension count against a player's VORP.

Any player not listed has a trade value of one. Remember, this is only a guide—your team needs and areas of strength should always determine any potential trades.

 

Quarterbacks

Week 9 Trade Value for Quarterbacks
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
11Peyton ManningDenver Broncos11.330
102Drew BreesNew Orleans Saints7.726
183Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers5.123
204Matt StaffordDetroit Lions4.722
245Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers3.421
396Philip RiversSan Diego Chargers3.516
407Tony RomoDallas Cowboys2.816
418Andrew LuckIndianapolis Colts2.416
539Colin KaepernickSan Francisco 49ers-0.312
5410Robert Griffin IIIWashington-0.312
5811Andy DaltonCincinnati Bengals1.710
5912Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons2.510
7913Russell WilsonSeattle Seahawks05
8014Jake LockerTennessee Titans-3.55
8115Tom BradyNew England Patriots-4.14
9616Alex SmithKansas City Chiefs-0.23

 

Quarterback Notes

Three quarterbacks are trending up this week—Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton. Just one of them is worth selling high and that is Dalton, who either has taken a big step toward being one of the league's top quarterbacks or is simply on a hot streak at the moment. 

Hold on to Newton and Kaepernick—I have a feeling both are just heating up.

But let's say you have a really good quarterback as your starter and think you can use Dalton's recent hot play to bring aboard another decent player or two. What kind of deals can you expect to get in exchange for Red Head Redemption?

They may not be blockbusters, but those are the types of deals that can give you the depth to survive the bye weeks. If you have Dalton, I say sell, sell, sell right now!

As for buy-low candidates, Russell Wilson (his value will take a bump once Percy Harvin returns), Jake Locker (18 or more fantasy points in his last three games) and Tom Brady (he'll wake up at some point, trust me) are all excellent options down the stretch. 

Michael Vick drops totally out of the rankings this week as he simply can't be trusted with his continued issues with injuries. 

 

Running Backs

Week 9 Trade Value for Running Backs
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
21Jamaal CharlesKansas City Chiefs10.229
32Matt ForteChicago Bears8.628
43Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos7.928
54Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings7.528
65Marshawn LynchSeattle Seahawks6.728
76LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles6.727
87Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers6.227
98Reggie BushDetroit Lions5.727
159Arian FosterHouston Texans4.424
1610Alfred MorrisWashington3.924
1711Eddie LacyGreen Bay Packers2.224
2712Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills4.720
3513Chris JohnsonTennessee Titans1.817
3614DeMarco MurrayDallas Cowboys1.717
3715Darren McFaddenOakland Raiders1.817
3816Stevan RidleyNew England Patriots0.817
4317Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens-1.015
4718DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers1.313
5119Zac StacySt. Louis Rams-1.813
5220Le'Veon BellPittsburgh Steelers-1.013
6021Danny WoodheadSan Diego Chargers1.69
6322Giovani BernardCincinnati Bengals1.09
6523Ryan MathewsSan Diego Chargers1.29
6624Trent RichardsonIndianapolis Colts-0.58
6725C.J. SpillerBuffalo Bills-2.18
6826Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars-0.28
8227Steven JacksonAtlanta Falcons-4.74
8328Andre EllingtonArizona Cardinals1.04
8429Darren SprolesNew Orleans Saints0.34
8930Lamar MillerMiami Dolphins-0.73
9431BenJarvus Green-EllisCincinnati Bengals-1.23
9532Mike JamesTampa Bay Buccaneers-5.83

 

Running Back Notes

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 27: Running back LeSean McCoy #25 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs against the New York Giants during the first quarter of a game at Lincoln Financial Field on October 27, 2013 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Vick recovered the fu
Rich Schultz/Getty Images

It's not so much that I'm worried about LeSean McCoy but rather that two weeks with seven or fewer fantasy points in a row have me forecasting his value more cautiously, as does the fact that he's been more effective this year with Vick under center than Nick Foles (more on that here). 

He's still an RB1, but he's no longer a top-three option at the position. 

I continue to judge Arian Foster's value cautiously as well, due to his injury concern and the utter shambles that the Texans have fallen into this season. In a season with so much uncertainty at the position, it seems only appropriate that two of the more consistent performers this year should now raise questions. 

At this point, the top 11 players at running back are so valuable that you really should only consider dealing one of them if you have insane depth at the position or someone absolutely blows you away with a trade. 

Let's say you have been crushed by injuries and you know there is a player desperate for, say, Matt Forte. You've been savvy on the waiver wire, adding players like Zac Stacy and Andre Ellington, so you think you can deal him to build depth elsewhere. 

What could Forte bring you in exchange?

I expect Ray Rice to be dramatically better coming off the bye, so now is a great buy-low moment for him. Your chance to buy low on Stevan Ridley has probably passed, but you can still target players like Trent Richardson or C.J. Spiller if you want to pay pennies on the dollar for a running back that could blow up in the weeks to come.

 

Wide Receivers

Week 9 Trade Value for Wide Receivers
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
111Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions7.326
122Dez BryantDallas Cowboys6.026
133Jordy NelsonGreen Bay Packers7.526
194A.J. GreenCincinnati Bengals5.122
215Wes WelkerDenver Broncos5.422
226Demaryius ThomasDenver Broncos5.122
237Brandon MarshallChicago Bears4.422
258DeSean JacksonPhiladelphia Eagles4.420
269Vincent JacksonTampa Bay Buccaneers4.220
3210Josh GordonCleveland Browns2.018
3311Victor CruzNew York Giants3.418
3412Torrey SmithBaltimore Ravens2.118
4213Eric DeckerDenver Broncos2.515
4314Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals1.414
4415James JonesGreen Bay Packers-1.214
4516Antonio BrownPittsburgh Steelers2.914
4817Andre JohnsonHouston Texans0.213
4918Denarius MooreOakland Raiders1.313
5019Pierre GarconWashington1.113
5520Alshon JefferyChicago Bears3.111
5621Terrance WilliamsDallas Cowboys0.811
5722Justin BlackmonJacksonville Jaguars-2.711
6123Anquan BoldinSan Francisco 49ers0.49
6224Cecil ShortsJacksonville Jaguars0.19
6425Jarrett BoykinGreen Bay Packers-3.59
7426T.Y. HiltonIndianapolis Colts-0.26
7527Harry DouglasAtlanta Falcons-0.56
7628Steve SmithCarolina Panthers-0.46
7729Keenan AllenSan Diego Chargers-0.46
8530Marvin JonesCincinnati Bengals2.44
8631Nate WashingtonTennessee Titans0.24
8732Golden TateSeattle Seahawks04
9033Rueben RandleNew York Giants-0.43
9134Steve JohnsonBuffalo Bills-0.53
9235Mike WallaceMiami Dolphins-1.23
9336Hakeem NicksNew York Giants-1.23

 

Wide Receiver Notes

BALTIMORE, MD - OCTOBER 13: Jordy Nelson #87 of the Green Bay Packers catches a pass from Aaron Rodgers #12 (not pictured) and scores a touchdown in the third quarter during a game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on October 13, 2013 in Ba
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Believe it or not, on a week-to-week basis, the most valuable wide receiver in all of fantasy football is... Jordy Nelson. He's been pretty darn consistent, too, scoring eight or more fantasy points in every game this season. That type of consistency is incredibly valuable.

You might be tempted to sell Nelson high right now, but the truth is, his current level of production seems sustainable given his role in the offense, his absolutely wonderful hands and the fact that Randall Cobb remains shelved due to injury. 

Of course, Calvin Johnson has absolutely erupted for 63 fantasy points in the past two weeks, which is as many as Anquan Boldin has scored this season. Long live the king. 

One player you might consider ditching is Victor Cruz, who has gone four straight games without a touchdown and has tallied eight fantasy points or more just once in that time. If you wanted to deal him to earn a package of players at other positions, what could you expect to get in return?

  • Danny Woodhead and Giovani Bernard
  • Andy Dalton and Trent Richardson
  • Justin Blackmon and Antonio Gates
  • Andrew Luck and Greg Olsen

You could still get some nice value for Cruz, but keep in mind that you are selling him with his value in decline, not on the rise.

Players like Jarrett Boykin, Terrance Williams and Marvin Jones will continue to see their value rise if they continue to produce. There are a lot of former waiver additions at wide receiver that now have legitimate value in fantasy leagues—don't be afraid to go out and get one of these guys just because they didn't start the season as drafted players.  

I've talked in the past about how injuries or suspensions can adversely affect a player's VORP but don't reflect how valuable they've been in games played. Look no further than Josh Gordon, whose VORP would be 5.1 (tied for fifth among wide receivers) if we only took into consideration games played.

But huge weeks can also affect a player's value from time to time in a unique way. 

No, I'm not talking about Marvin Jones here. Three double-digit performances in a row is a trend, not a fluke. Rather, I'm talking about Antonio Brown, who had 31 fantasy points in Week 3 and has tallied just 42 points in his six other games. 

Brown still remains a solid WR2 because he is very consistent, if unspectacular, scoring at least five fantasy points in every game this season and seven or more points five times. But you might be able to convince an owner to overpay slightly for Brown if he hasn't factored in how much Brown's huge Week 3 performance skewed his actual value. 

One last note: Once it becomes more clear when Harvin will return, he'll obviously be on this list. If he plays this week, you'll see him here next week. But until we know, it's hard to gauge his value.

 

Tight Ends

Week 9 Trade Value for Tight Ends
RankPos. RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
141Jimmy GrahamTight End9.125
282Rob GronkowskiNew England Patriots-4.719
293Jordan CameronCleveland Browns5.219
304Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers5.119
315Julius ThomasDenver Broncos5.019
696Antonio GatesSan Diego Chargers1.77
707Martellus BennettChicago Bears1.77
718Jason WittenDallas Cowboys1.67
729Charles ClayMiami Dolphins1.67
7310Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons1.47
9811Jordan ReedWashington0.62
9912Greg OlsenCarolina Panthers02
10013Heath MillerPittsburgh Steelers- 2.92

 

Tight End Notes

NEW ORLEANS, LA - OCTOBER 27:  Jimmy Graham #80 of the New Orleans Saints reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on October 27, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Chris Graythen/Getty Images

I'm slightly worried about Jimmy Graham. He played just 18 snaps and had three receptions on Sunday, battling through the pain of a partially torn plantar fascia. Of course, he still had two touchdowns and 15 fantasy points, so if he's on the field, his value remains high, but I think we could see his production wane slightly in weeks to come. 

As you can see, there is a clear group of "elite" options at the position and then a pretty significant drop, which makes the top five at the position quite valuable. Let's say you think you can pry Jordan Cameron away from an owner who also owns Rob Gronkowski, because your tight ends have stunk—what might you have to give up to get him?

  • Robert Griffin III and Keenan Allen
  • Alshon Jeffery and Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Anquan Boldin and Cecil Shorts
  • Philip Rivers and BenJarvus Green-Ellis

It may seem a steep price, but the value you'll be getting with Cameron over the majority of tight ends will help your team more than you think. 

If Jordan Reed is sitting on another team's bench, and you are hurting for a tight end, dangle a player like Lamar Miller or Steve Johnson in a trade to get him. He looks like he's going to be a solid TE1 for the rest of the season and should only see his value increase from here on it. Buy low on him while you can. 

 

Defense/Special Teams

Week 9 Trade Value for Defense/Special Teams
RankPos. RankTeamVORPTrade Value
781Kansas City Chiefs8.06
882Seattle Seahawks4.44
973Carolina Panthers3.22

 

Defense/Special Team Notes

CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 20:  Luke Kuechly #59 of the Carolina Panthers during their game at Bank of America Stadium on October 20, 2013 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Gasp—the Chiefs defense had just four fantasy points this week. Don't fret, folks—this unit is still crazy valuable. Same for the Seahawks and Panthers. Seattle has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points just once this season, while Carolina has reached double-digits five weeks in a row. 

All three of these defenses are worth pursuing in a trade if you have the bench depth to give up a decent player in a deal. 

 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, offer additional trade advice to pair with this chart and make jokes about the Rams offense because, you know, it's easy prey. 

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