Colts vs. Patriots: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

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Colts vs. Patriots: Spread Info, Line and Predictions
Jim Rogash/Getty Images

It took just one year for this game to mean something again in the AFC. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (6-3) welcome rookie Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts (6-3) in a battle that used to include Peyton Manning.

However, Luck is running the show just as well as his predecessor, putting the Colts in position to challenge for a playoff spot. The team has used the absence of coach Chuck Pagano as motivation for an improbable winning streak, and Luck has played like a seasoned veteran during that streak.

For Bill Belichick and the Pats, things have been mostly status quo on offense. It's the defense where things are somewhat out of sorts, with the secondary giving up far too many completions to teams it shouldn't.

Here's a complete preview for this unlikely playoff-deciding matchup in Week 11.

 

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET

Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

Watch: CBS

Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket

Listen: Colts affiliates; Patriots affiliates

 

Spread: New England -9 (according to Bovada)

I know the Colts and Luck are somewhat untested with who they've played, but after watching this Colts team fight with both precision and heart over this winning streak, nine points seems way too high.

The way the Pats' secondary is playing and the connection Luck has to Reggie Wayne gives me enough to doubt this point spread pretty easily. Take the Colts, one of the NFL's feel-good stories of the year.

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They just have that special vibe when you watch them play, and this one will be anything but a blowout.

 

Over/Under: 54 (according to Bovada)

The Patriots have been a shoo-in to score 30 points per game this season, making them an attractive totals play in most weeks. But 54 seems a little high against the Colts, a team ready to grind it out a little bit more than they are to get into a shootout.

I think the Pats miss 30—barely—and this one doesn't go over the mark.

 

Injury Report via CBS Sports (as of 11/15/12)

Colts

Pos

Player

Injury

Status

RB

Donald Brown

Knee

Questionable

NT

Josh Chapman

Knee

Questionable

DB

Vontae Davis

Knee

OUT

TE

Coby Fleener

Shoulder

OUT

LB

Robert Mathis

Back

Questionable

 

Patriots

Pos

Player

Injury

 

Status

WR

Deion Branch

Hamstring

 

Questionable

S

Patrick Chung

Shoulder, hamstring

 

Questionable

WR

Julian Edelman

Hand

 

Probable

S

Steve Gregory

Hip

 

Questionable

TE

Rob Gronkowski

Hip

 

Probable

TE

Aaron Hernandez

Ankle

 

Questionable

LB

Dont'a Hightower

Hamstring

 

Questionable

WR

Brandon Lloyd

Knee

 

Probable

LB

Jerod Mayo

Elbow

 

Probable

LB

Brandon Spikes

Knee

 

Questionable

WR

Wes Welker

Ankle

 

Questionable

 

Fantasy Start 'em, Sit 'em, Sleeper

Colts QB Andrew Luck/WR Reggie Wayne—Start

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Wayne already has over 900 yards on the season, and we're only in Week 11. The duo is picking right up where Manning left off and making Wayne happy he decided to stick around for the rebuilding process.

These two are both no-brainer starts against the Patriots, who allowed 328 yards passing to the league's least accurate QB—Mark Sanchez. Enjoy the benefits of this game if you have Luck or Wayne lurking in your lineup.

 

Patriots RB Stevan Ridley—Start

Despite the Patriots playing the hot hand and situational football with their backfield, this guy has over 800 yards rushing and six touchdowns.

Those are huge numbers in New England, and Ridley is now a RB1 in most formats because of it. If they go to Danny Woodhead, it's because they are in passing situations, and Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden were both competing for carries before Bolden's suspension.

Enjoy what Ridley gives you, since the Patriots offense hasn't decided it's going to abandon the run.

 

Patriots WR Wes Welker—Sleeper

David Butler II-US PRESSWIRE

Welker was once a guaranteed 10-point man earlier this season, now he's a certified six-catch man with plenty of potential in the passing game. His numbers have dipped a little bit in recent weeks, but the running game has reaped the benefits.

With Aaron Hernandez still nursing an injury and the passing game ready to attack at any moment, make sure Welker is in the lineup—even as just a flex.

 

Key to Colts Win—Use Home Crowd, Emotion

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Pagano's horrible illness has helped inspire a Twitter campaign and the hearts of these Colts and their fans. In one of the NFL's best rivalries, this is a game where you might be able to throw everything out the window when it comes to conventional thinking.

The Patriots are still the Patriots and one of the NFL's best. But the Colts have something special they protrude on the field, something that makes them tick. It should be an emotional first half, and they will need that to carry over late into this game.

 

Key to Patriots Win—Do What You Do

The Patriots have a blueprint for success, and it works about 75 percent of the time. The early-season struggles can be attributed to young guys and growing players in the secondary, but the offense is as strong as ever.

It's clear that there's more talent on this New England team, but talent only goes so far. New England needs to execute the game plan and take control of this game early if they don't want to have trouble late in the game like teams have had against Indy earlier in the season.

 

Prediction

Brady squeaks out a tight one in what should turn out to be the first of many games between these two teams with Luck at the helm. Rivalry renewed!

Patriots 28, Colts 25

 

Ethan Grant is a featured columnist for B/R's Breaking News Team.

 

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