If you have one of the first three picks in the draft, you have to take one of the following:
RB Arian Foster
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Ray Rice
Period. End of story.
Those RBs are sure things. Young, durable, no running-back-by-committee or vulture situation, and solid in PPR and non-PPR leagues alike.
As we've seen with Ryan Mathews' broken clavicle in the first preseason game, the truly elite RBs are rare, so if you can grab one, you have zero excuse not to take one.
However, if you are drafting anywhere else in the first round, you must take one of the elite quarterbacks.
One is Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers finished with a 32.5 FPPG average. This despite being exactly middle of the pack (No. 16) in pass attempts.
If he threw more passes, his average could be even higher.
His receiving corps is still young and Rodgers declared that the team running more "is not our identity."
All signs point to another truly elite performance from Rodgers, despite his poor first preseason game.
Some might suggest taking Calvin Johnson instead of Rodgers. If that's you, consider this:
Johnson averaged 15.5 FPPG last year, tops among fantasy wideouts.
The sixth-best fantasy receiver last year? Larry Fitzgerald, at 11.6 FPPG.
That's only a difference of 3.9 FPPG from Johnson to Fitzgerald.
But you can get Fitzgerald in the second round of your draft.
In contrast, who was the sixth-best fantasy quarterback last year?
That's Tony Romo, at 21.2 FPPG.
That's a difference of 11.3 FPPG from Rodgers to Romo.
And these numbers are likely to be similar again this year.
You tell me whether you'd want Rodgers or Johnson in the first round this year.