Fantasy Football's Top 25 Running Backs

The following slideshow details my Top 25 Running Backs right now, a painfully subjective exercise that hopefully reflects the 2012 market for runners in standard-scoring leagues, not necessarily PPRs.

The countdown is exclusive to active NFL players, meaning that potential gems like rookies Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, LaMichael James and Boise State's Doug Martin are ineligible until after the April 26-28 draft.

Even with a thorough assignment like this, there are bound to be omissions (or snubs). But ultimately, it was difficult to make a case for Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Donald Brown, Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson or Ben Tate gracing the list—factoring in their current situations.

Enjoy the show!

Special Mention: Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos

McGahee (1,250 total yards, five TDs last year) deserves some props in this countdown, even though the Broncos' new approach to the running game may be drastically different from 2011. Denver may also seek a permanent stand-in to McGahee and Knowshon Moreno in the upcoming draft.

Bottom line: McGahee hasn't posted back-to-back campaigns of 1,200 total yards since 2005; and the chances of doing that on Peyton Manning's watch are remote, at best. McGahee's a solid middle-round pick at this stage of his career.

25: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

We couldn't have this countdown without listing a Panthers running back—but which one?

Stewart didn't have a 100-yard rushing game last year; DeAngelo Williams tallied fewer than 1,000 total yards; and new acquisition Mike Tolbert may not get enough opportunities to vulture TDs from Stewart, D-Will and QB Cam Newton.

For now, Stewart (1,174 total yards, five TDs in 2011) gets the nod at No. 25, on the strength of his immense potential; but to be honest, he'll probably get bumped for Alabama product Trent Richardson—the moment Richardson becomes property of the Bucs, Browns or Rams.

24: Darren Sproles, New Orleans Saints

This ranking is considerably lower than the top-10 status Sproles enjoyed at the end of last season. But there is one obvious factor working against Sproles replicating 1,300 total yards or 86 receptions (a career high)—the yearlong absence of Saints head coach/play-call extraordinaire Sean Payton.

Regardless of who replaces Payton on the play-calling end—even QB Drew Brees—it's hard to imagine Sproles being as explosive this year. Plus, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram should be ready to go full bore from Day 1 of training camp.

23: Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins

Bush (1,393 total yards, seven TDs) garners inclusion here for two reasons:

Four straight 100-yard rushing games (519 total) to close out the season, and the Dolphins—just 13 days before the draft—have no big-time receiving options to steal the spotlight from Bush and No. 2 back Daniel Thomas. (Sorry, fans of Davone Bess, Brian Hartline and Clyde Gates.)

But then again, perhaps Bush should be downgraded for having no other Miami stars to distract opposing defenses. It's important to remember that 2011 was Bush's first 1,000-yard rushing campaign; he only had two outings of 50-plus receiving yards, too.

Perhaps we'll revisit this ranking later in the spring, presumably after the Dolphins restock the talent cupboard.

22: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals

I'm surprised Cincinnati didn't make a stronger free-agent play for Kentucky native and former Raiders tailback Michael Bush. But then again, we're talking about the Bengals here—one of the NFL's most enigmatic franchises.

But enough about Bush. Ex-Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis has a great opportunity to put up sizable numbers with the Bengals. The club has a solid offensive line, and opposing defenses should have their hands full confronting Andy Dalton, Jermaine Gresham and receiver A.J. Green, a top-20 fantasy talent.

Bottom line: Assuming Cincy doesn't draft a high-profile rookie back, the door is open for Green-Ellis to collect 1,200 total yards and nine touchdowns.

21: Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

Yes, Best (677 total yards, three TDs in six games last year) is a virtual lock for 90 total yards every time he takes the field; yes, few defenders can match his top-end speed in the open field; and yes, Best (85 career catches) could be a top-five running back in Points Per Reception leagues this year.

But none of this will occur if Best continues to be plagued by concussion problems...and that should be a big concern for every Round 5/6 investor come August.

To remedy this potential problem, owners are advised to handcuff Best with de facto rookie Mikel Leshoure (missed 2011 with a knee injury)—a sneaky-good candidate for 8-10 TDs this year.

20: Shonn Greene, New York Jets

I like Greene's chances of finishing at or above 1,265 total yards (last year's figure), but I'll be shocked if he registers seven or more touchdowns.

That's the consequence of the Jets needlessly trading for backup QB Tim Tebow, who will undoubtedly be used in short-yardage and goal-line situations this season. (Why else would the club want him?)

But hey, Greene still can be a force between the 20s and mid-range red-zone scenarios; perhaps he'll even score a touchdown or two from beyond 26 yards—something he failed to do in 2011.

19: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants

If Bradshaw (926 total yards, 11 TDs last year) hadn't committed the unpardonable sin of (allegedly) missing curfew and getting suspended for a good chunk of Giants-Cowboys in Week 14—the first week of the fantasy playoffs—he would have scored a higher ranking.

But that's the price one must pay for being unreliable during crunch time; and Bradshaw's 19-yard effort against Dallas was a game-changer on the trust end. Bottom line: Avoid having Bradshaw as your RB1 in 12-team leagues; it's a recipe for disaster.

On the plus side, Bradshaw has virtually no competition at tailback, at least before the draft. Brandon Jacobs now calls San Francisco home, and D.J. Ware and Da'Rel Scott are more situational assets than feature backs.

18: Roy Helu, Washington Redskins

On the surface, Helu at 18 seems like a reach. But let's remember that he corralled 1,039 total yards and three touchdowns out of only 200 touches (5.02 yards per touch); and with 50-60 more touches—a low estimate for a high-end back—that's 1,300 easy yards.

I am supremely confident that Helu can take a big leap forward this season, but I'm also aware of Evan Royster's development in the Redskins offense. I'm also cognizant of how many skilled offensive pieces Washington has...including QB Robert Griffin III.

For Helu to gain the ultimate respect in Year 2, he must be a force around the goal line. Let's just hope the extra touches entails a bump in red-zone chances.

17: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

From Weeks 7-12 last year (six-game span), Murray amassed 915 total yards and two touchdowns. If he had finished the season with that stellar run, he'd be a top-10 pick in August.

But that's not how the world of fantasy works sometimes. Instead of being a Round 2 selection, and gracing the cover of fantasy magazines everywhere, Murray will have to sing for his supper once again in 2012—while being flanked by a healthy Felix Jones in the backfield.

Targets: 1,297 total yards and seven touchdowns.

16: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

This ranking may seem like a cop-out, since I've already made the decision to pass on Peterson (1,112 total yards, 13 TDs in 13 games last year) until Round 6 of all 12-team drafts.

But the man has certainly earned the right to be in the top 20. He's also earned the benefit of the doubt when vowing to be ready for Week 1 action.

When healthy, Peterson (6,752 rushing yards, 67 total TDs) is a top-five back; in fact, he'll probably reclaim that honor in August 2013.

15: Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Gore (1,325 total yards, eight TDs) had a fantastic 2011 campaign, but things may be a little different on Walton Mountain this fall. For starters, the 49ers have upgraded the receivers, adding Mario Manningham and Randy Moss to the mix.

Next up, Gore, Brandon Jacobs and Kendall Hunter might comprise the NFL's best three-man backfield. And if that weren't enough, there's the little matter of playoff hero Vernon Davis reclaiming his standing as a premium red-zone target.

Bottom line: If you're going to make an effort to draft Gore in Round 4, reward yourself with the handcuff of Jacobs or Hunter sometime during Rounds 8-12.

14: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

If the Rams should take Trent Richardson at No. 6 overall in the April 26 draft, it might drop Jackson six or seven spots here. But until then, S-Jax (1,478 total yards, six TDs in 2011) shall maintain his standing amongst the fantasy elite for yet another season—regardless of the state of the Rams receivers.

Speaking of which, why does St. Louis have such a blind spot for acquiring and keeping top-notch pass-catchers (Brandon Lloyd joke for all)?

This is the same franchise that re-wrote the book on vertical passing just 10-13 years ago...and now it's pinning hopes onto (the other) Steve Smith, Brandon Gibson, Danario Alexander, Greg Salas and Danny Amendola.

Maybe that's a cue for Jackson to recapture his 50-catch form of 2009.

Targets: 1,411 total yards and six touchdowns.

13: Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Just like the Frank Gore stanza, this pick comes with a warning of shared carries involving Wells (1,099 total yards, 10 TDs last year), LaRod Stephens-Howling and Ryan Williams—my choice for fantasy rookie of the year in 2011 before he blew out his knee in the preseason.

If Williams had never incurred a serious injury last August, perhaps he may have warranted primary mention for this countdown. Instead, he'll cede the spotlight to Wells for at least one more preseason.

Wells targets: 1,387 total yards and seven touchdowns.

12: Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

On talent alone, Charles is a Round 1 fixture; but owners will likely be skittish to reach for him on draft day, citing his ACL tear in Week 2 against Detroit last year, while also wondering how RB Peyton Hillis (free-agent acquisition) might cut into Charles' rushing and receiving attempts.

Of course, these may be the same owners champing at the bit for Adrian Peterson's return—even though Charles had a three-month head start of recovery time. Go figure.

Bottom line: If you believe Charles (1,935 total yards, eight TDs in 2010) can quickly recapture his old speed, quickness and explosion, you'll be happy to invest a Round 3 pick; and if you're worried about his capacity to carry the Chiefs offense, then you'll likely wait until Round 4, if not later.

Targets: 1,512 total yards and seven touchdowns.

11: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Turner may be at the crossroads of his NFL career, but he's still a comfortable Round 2 pick at this unpredictable stage.

Heading into his age-30 season, we already know that Turner (1,508 total yards, 11 TDs last year) will have little impact on the Falcons' passing game and that he won't break off too many long touchdown runs (the 81-yarder against Tampa Bay was the exception that proves the rule).

All things considered, Turner's positives far outweigh any concerns that he'll suddenly morph into Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson (stars turned overnight mortals) and become a drag on the Atlanta attack.

Targets: 1,368 total yards and 11 touchdowns.

10: Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

This could be a defining season for Mathews (1,546 total yards, six TDs in 2011), in terms of his capacity to fill the numbers void of Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay) and Mike Tolbert (Carolina) leaving San Diego for greener pastures.

Mathews can notch 1,300 total yards in his sleep for the Chargers, but can he rack up double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his career?

Can he produce long scoring runs or catches, fueling San Diego's need for a big-play, quick-strike attack? And can he be the week-in, week-out centerpiece of an offense that's developing largely untested wideouts on the fly?

I believe the answer to all three questions is "yes," but Mathews has to get past all the durability concerns before entering the elite strata of fantasy backs. There's more to greatness than being a weekly lock for 90 total yards.

Targets: 1,461 yards and 10 touchdowns.

9: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

Here are some fascinating bits about Lynch, aside from last year's 11-game TD streak or his celebrated affinity for Skittles candy: He recorded career highs in rushing yards (1,204), total yards (1,416), carries (285), touches (313) and total scores (13) in 2011—on the strength of only one game of 30-plus touches.

That tells me the soon-to-be-26-year-old Lynch (April 22) has the potential for yet another leap in his fantasy development this season, complementing the Seahawks' savvy offseason signing of QB Matt Flynn.

The key to Lynch's success may depend on another addition of years past—wide receiver Sidney Rice. If Rice can stay healthy and continue to stretch the opponents' defensive alignments, it should help create more running lanes for a back who's been reborn in the Pacific Northwest.

Targets: 1,427 total yards and 10 touchdowns.

8: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders

This ranking will probably draw catcalls from both ends—with some saying McFadden (768 total yards, five TDs in seven games last year) is too injury-prone to be a top-10 asset, with others declaring that, when healthy, D-Mac's more bankable than Matt Forte or Chris Johnson.

And for the most part, both sides would be correct...although I would classify Lisfranc foot injuries as freak occurrences, not the calling card of players who can't stay on the field.

Assuming full health, McFadden should have a monster season with the Raiders. Michael Bush is gone (no more vulture TDs) and Taiwan Jones is the pre-draft main backup.

Throw in the fact that opposing defenses will have to respect a Raiders quarterback for once (Carson Palmer)...and McFadden should be a fantasy force.

7: Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

If memory serves, Jackson was the AFC's leading rusher at the time of his season-ending injury (foot), a setback that helped perpetuate the Bills' late slide in 2011; and if memory also serves, C.J. Spiller filled the void admirably, leading some to wonder if he was finally ready to assume the No. 1 rushing duties.

That sounds great for sports-talk radio, but Buffalo execs are probably more comfortable with a two-back attack, with Jackson (1,376 total yards, six TDs) having the bigger name on the marquee for now.

After all, that should always be a courtesy extended to backs averaging 137.6 total yards per game—a figure that's eerily reminiscent to Ray Rice in his prime.

Targets: 1,588 total yards and eight touchdowns.

6: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

In any other year, Forte would be an easy top-five asset at his position. But given the seemingly never-ending contract dispute with Bears management and arrival of ex-Raider Michael Bush (the No. 9 running back last year), it's foolish to go overboard with 2012 projections.

Here's another reason for the mild disrespect: Of the top eight tailbacks in this countdown, Forte is the only one who endured a four-game stretch without 100 total yards last year. Normally, that wouldn't be such a deal-breaker; but we're talking about Forte—and his 7.1 TDs per season.

Targets: 1,454 total yards and seven touchdowns.

5: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Most fantasy owners would throw a parade for a running back with 1,465 total yards; but that was hardly the case with Johnson's 2011 campaign.

From his high-profile holdout and lack of conditioning during the preseason to the September slump and four total touchdowns, it was a turbulent season full of sound and fury, but ultimately signifying nothing.

But the year was not a total loss. Johnson posted seven games of 100 total yards or more; he also recorded season highs in targets (79) and receptions (57).

Put it all together, and it's enough to make one believe the 26-year-old speedster will rebound in a major way this season. He simply has too much talent to be...above-average.

Targets: 1,817 total yards and 11 touchdowns.

4: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

MJD's insane finishing kick in the Jaguars' final 11 outings (10 games of 100-plus total yards, nine TDs) was the stuff of fantasy legends, but it might have prompted unrealistic expectations for 2012. Seriously.

Let's start with opportunities. You have a better chance of winning the lottery in the next 10 days than MJD has of replicating last year's 386 touches (343 carries).

Let's talk scheduling. Instead of terrorizing the hapless Bucs for 136 total yards and four TDs during Week 14 last year, Jones-Drew will have to contend with physical defenses from the AFC East and NFC North in 2012.

Let's talk coaching. New head man Mike Mularkey did wonders with Michael Turner's running success in Atlanta (offensive coordinator); but he was specifically hired by Jacksonville to develop QB Blaine Gabbert and bolster a passing attack that's been anemic, at best.

Targets: 1,687 total yards and nine TDs.

3: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

In his four pro seasons, Rice has developed a pattern of 2,000 total yards and 70-plus catches in odd-numbered years, with totals short of that in even-numbered ones.

Using that convoluted logic, Rice likely won't become just the 10th running back in NFL history to cross the 2,000-yard threshold in consecutive years. There are two key factors driving this prediction:

1. Rice may stage a contract holdout until the end of Ravens training camp, the first indicator of a promising season gone awry.

2. Baltimore will likely target a receiver or running back in the first two days of the draft, in an effort to diversify the Rice-right, Rice-left approach.

Targets: 1,871 total yards and 11 touchdowns.

2: Arian Foster, Houston Texans

Since there are no obvious flaws in Foster's fantasy game, we'll have to nitpick our way through this rationalization of the No. 2 ranking.

1. The Texans' offensive line (now without Eric Winston) is largely anonymous to NFL fans living outside the metro Houston area.

2. A healthy Andre Johnson (hamstring woes all of last season) will get his fair share of red-zone opportunities once again.

3. Despite catching 53 balls and attracting 72 targets last season, Foster has a zero-percent chance of collecting two receiving TDs of 78 yards or more in 2012.

But all is not lost for Foster (1,871 total yards, 12 TDs in 2011). He's a lock for another monster season.

Targets: 2,016 total yards and 14 touchdowns.

1: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

It's a good news/bad news proposition for the top back in this countdown and possible No. 1 overall pick in standard-scoring drafts.

On the down side, McCoy is not likely to replicate his 20 total touchdowns (17 rushing) from last year; but he is a great candidate to eclipse 1,624 total yards—which included 11 games of 100-plus total yards.

In fact, I'll be shocked if Shady comes in under the 1,750-yard threshold, a testament to his expanding role in the Eagles offense.

Of course, there were springtime reports that head coach Andy Reid wanted to restrict McCoy's touches, a supposed random act of kindness, even though Arian Foster (331 touches), Ray Rice (367) and Maurice Jones-Drew (386) crushed McCoy (321) in that category last season.

Bottom line: Taking Reid at his word...let's target McCoy for (only) 304 touches, 1,801 total yards and 18 touchdowns.