AFC & NFC Championship 2012: Picks and Predictions for All Weekend Games

Four teams are left: doorstep of the Super Bowl.

After a month of preseason, 17 weeks of the regular season and a pair of playoff weekends, we should have pretty good feel for what's going to happen on Championship Sunday, right?

Well, probably not. 

Regardless, here's a stab at what's going to take place in the AFC and NFC Championship showdowns: two predictions about what will take place in each game, as well as a final score. 

Baltimore Ravens: Ray Rice Will Not Rush for 100 Yards

Last week, the Texans greatly limited the Ravens' running game and Baltimore subsequently squeaked out a victory at home against a club with a third string, rookie quarterback. It's a safe bet that getting Ray Rice on track will be the offense's top priority against New England.  

And that's explicitly the reason why he won't.

Look for Bill Belichick to overload the box and dare Joe Flacco to beat them.

With the quick-strike, offensive firepower that the Patriots have, Belichick knows that if his much-maligned defense surrenders a long touchdown pass or two, they can still make up the points in a hurry. But if Rice is churning out yards, keeping Tom Brady on the sideline, that's much more distressing. 

New York Giants: Eli Manning's Hot Streak Will Not End

Although Eli Manning had, statistically, the best season of his career in 2011 and he has been almost flawless in the two postseason wins, few people would say that the Giants' offense is as potent as what we saw from the Saints and Packers this year. 

So, because the general consensus entering the playoffs was that the 49ers had the best chance of stopping those two high-octane offenses in Green Bay and New Orleans, it would seem that the 49ers now have a slight edge on Championship Sunday.

And in all three phases—defensive line, linebackers and secondary—the 49ers are superior to what the Giants faced in Green Bay and Atlanta. 

But because the Saints still scored 32 points, despite a whopping five turnovers, it's impossible to think that San Francisco "contained" the Saints and Drew Brees, simply because they won the game. 

Maybe this is too simplistic, but I think the five turnovers balance out any disparity in the Giants' and Saints' offenses.

In short, I think Eli and the Giants' offense will put up a comparable total, somewhere between 28 and 34 points. They might not have a Jimmy Graham, but the combination of Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz presents as tall a task.

New England Patriots: There Will Be No Effort to Run the Ball

The Ravens run defense was second best in the NFL this year, allowing just 92 yards per game. 

But Arian Foster looked awesome last week (132 yards on 27 carries), and was the main reason Houston was able to stay in the game offensively. 

Of course, the Pats don't have an Arian Foster. They do, however, have a Tom Brady.

And it should be pretty telling in the shift in strategy that they actually stuck Aaron Hernandez in the backfield as a running back and handed it off to him five times last week against Denver.

Last year, everyone was all gaga about the emergence of Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. That's gone bye-bye in 2011-12. 

Any other team—great quarterback or not—would probably give a token effort to run the ball against the Ravens, just to attempt to wear down the front seven. Not New England. They won't hesitate to ignore the old adage about running the ball to "keep a defense honest." 

San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith Will Commit Multiple Turovers

The philosophy behind Saints' defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' blitz-happy attack is obviously to pressure the quarterback—not just into sacks, but into making bad decisions with the football, believing that good things happen when a quarterback is under pressure: a sack, a strip or an interception.

Clearly that didn't work last Saturday: Although he was sacked four times, Smith rarely felt pressure and didn't throw a pick or fumble the football. The 49ers either did a wonderful job of picking up the blitz or they caught New Orleans in a terrible scheme, like on that 28-yard designed bootleg touchdown. 

Perry Fewell will have nearly the exact opposite approach to stopping San Fran: The Giants will rely on that great front to pressure Smith without the aid of blitzes. That will leave seven men in coverage for Smith, and he won't see the favorable one-on-one matchups he routinely did against the Saints.

I expect him to make at least one mistake that the Giants secondary capitalizes on.

And given how well the Giants defensive line is playing right now—Jason Pierre-Paul's rise with the emergence of a healthy Osi Umenyiora—and they'll either get their hands up to bat a ball in the air, force Smith to unload early or knock the ball from Smith's hands, the way they did to Aaron Rodgers last week. 

NFC Championship Game Prediction

It's true that the Giants have not faced a defense like the 49ers all year: the Jets, Eagles, Cowboys, Saints, Packers—none of them compare to the 49ers' consistency. And in Week 10, they were defeated by San Francisco.

But even on that day, the Giants racked up nearly 400 yards of offense and in the final minute were 10 yards away from the game-tying score. Couple that with the Saints' ability to score at will in the fourth quarter, and the 49ers' defense is a far cry from the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens. 

Even with five turnovers, the 49ers still allowed the Saints to gain nearly 300 yards of offense in the second half. And since the Giants have done a terrific job of protecting the football (just two turnovers in the last four games) and have been pretty explosive, it's just an unfavorable matchup for the 49ers. 

Game MVP: Eli Manning, QB

Final Score: Giants 31, 49ers 21

AFC Championship Game Prediction

Despite the injury to Ed Reed, the advanced age of Ray Lewis and Arian Foster's hard running last week in Baltimore, I think it's a mistake to assume the Ravens' defense will fold in the face of Tom Brady's golden arm. 

They are much deeper than people give them credit for: Haloti Ngata is a stud, Terrell Suggs was a contender for Defensive Player of the Year, Jarrett Johnson is one of the league's most underrated players and Jimmy Smith has been fantastic as a rookie corner.

All of that should be enough to slow down the NFL's leader in receptions (Wes Welker), the historically-great tight end (Rob Gronkowski) and the Robin to Gronkowski's Batman (Aaron Hernandez), who has been nearly as dominant over the middle. 

But Brady's fourth receiving option, Deion Branch, is still one of the game's most clutch receivers. The Ravens can't pressure Brady, cover the Welker-Gronkowski-Hernandez trio with more than man-to-man AND contain Branch. He'll slip open a few times and make the big plays that allow New England to jump out to an early lead, then hold on in the end as Joe Flacco's comeback bid falls short several times in the fourth quarter. 

Game MVP: Deion Branch, WR

Final Score: Patriots 27, Ravens 24