NFL Week 17: Clearing Up the Playoff Picture

With just one week left of the National Football League, the playoff door for many teams is just as wide open as it was at the beginning of the season.

Sure, you've got your teams that are already safe and are mentally preparing for their big games in January, but for many, this week is the week that will either make or break their playoff hopes.

And so, let's clear this playoff picture up a little bit. Let's sort the contenders from the pretenders and figure out what, exactly, the 2011 playoff series is going to look like.

Teams Already in the Playoffs

Let's start with the teams that are already in the 2011 playoff series, and we'll work our way through to the complicated stuff. Note, for this, I'm not talking about where teams will fall in the playoffs or what number seed they will be; this is simply about whether they're in or out of the playoffs.

National Football Conference teams

Green Bay Packers (NFC North)

San Francisco 49ers (NFC West)

New Orleans Saints (NFC South)

Detroit Lions (Wild Card entry)

Atlanta Falcons (Wild Card entry)

Places remaining - Divisional winner of the NFC East

American Football Conference teams

New England Patriots (AFC North)

Houston Texans (AFC South)

Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card entry)

Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild Card entry)

Places remaining - Divisional winner of the AFC North, divisional winner of the AFC West, Wild Card entry

NFC East Divisional Winner

With just one playoff spot remaining for the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants will do battle to not only take the NFC East, but to remain in the hunt for the Super Bowl.

The equation couldn't get any simpler. Win, and you're in the playoffs. Lose, and your season is over.

Over a month ago, I wrote here that the division would come down to this one game and that the New York Giants would clinch it in front of the home crowd.

All the little things in this one seem to point to a win for the Giants. They've got the home crowd, who will no doubt be making life hell for Romo and his boys, and they'll have an important edge over Dallas after beating them in Dallas previously.

As for the Cowboys, they'll be facing a fired-up New York side that wants to throw Romo into the ground over and over again. They'll have to recover from a humiliating and frustrating loss to the Eagles the week before and the Cardinals three weeks back. And they'll have to do it on the arm of Tony Romo, who may be adding to the growing tally of interceptions the Giants' secondary is recording.

I think that all the momentum is with the Giants, who will be more than ready to take it to their divisional rivals and send them home without a playoff berth. A win here is also significant because it will mean that they don't have to play the Packers until the NFC Championship Game should they make it that far.

MetLife Stadium will come alive that night, and I can't see Romo rising to the occasion; he's just not a rise-to-the-occasion kind of guy. Eli Manning, on the other hand, has shown this year that he is, and whilst Dallas is doing field-goal practice, Manning has been throwing touchdowns and will throw his team right into the playoffs in doing so.

NFC East winner - New York Giants

AFC North Divisional Winner

With both the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers tied atop the division at 11-4, the equation for this one is also pretty simple.

For the Steelers to win the division, they need to win against the Browns and hope the Bengals beat the Ravens. If anything other than that happens, the Ravens win the division.

And although it seems hard for the Steelers, it's not at all impossible.

They should have no trouble getting past the Cleveland Browns, who wrote off the 2011 season a very long time ago.

Their huge win last week without Big Ben showed that the team is good enough to win without him, and I fully expect him to play this week. Albeit against the Rams, the Steelers showed that they can close out games they are expected to win. Against the Browns, they'll do exactly that.

Which leaves us with the Ravens, who I'm not sold on yet.

Four weeks ago, I was sold. Flacco was playing well, the defense had its usual mongrel, and the Ravens looked unstoppable.

Then, they lost to the San Diego Chargers. In fact, they got hammered by the San Diego Chargers. Flacco looked beatable, the defense looked fragile, and they couldn't just turn to Ray Rice and expect him to fix everything.

And then last week, at home against the Cleveland Browns, they only just held out for a win. Leading 17-0, they almost threw it away except for the incredibly poor play of the Browns' offense. Flacco completed less than 50 percent of his passes and threw for just 132 yards as the Browns out-passed and out-rushed the Ravens.

I'm just not sold on them, and on the road at Cincinnati playing for a wild-card spot, I don't think they will win. Yep, you read it correctly.

The Ravens will not beat the Bengals.

Baltimore has struggled on the road this year, going 3-4 whilst going 8-0 at home. And I don't think it's coincidence; I just think the Ravens are more temperamental than Philip Rivers. One minute, they're brilliant. The next, they're woeful.

And I think they're about to hit some minutes they would rather forget.

Andy Dalton is better than Joe Flacco, and A.J. Green will find a way to catch the ball even over the best of defenses. Cedric Benson isn't brilliant, so the Ravens' strong run defense won't have as much work to get through, After watching the Browns nearly beat them when they had nothing to play for, the Bengals will finish off the Ravens in front of their faithful.

Baltimore will hang on to a wild-card entry and, depending on the results, could end up playing the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Cincinnati Bengals later in the campaign.

Now wouldn't that be fun to watch.

AFC North Divisional Winner - Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC West Divisional Winner

After Tebow-mania swept the nation and whipped it into a frenzy, it's now come crashing down in a very big way in recent weeks.

It's a tough thing Tebow has going for him at the moment. Regardless of how the rest of the team plays, whatever the result is, it all sits with Tebow. So when they win, Tim takes the credit. But when they lose, it's Tim's fault also.

So, after winning six straight and taking them atop the division, the Broncos crumbled to the Patriots two weeks back, allowing 450 yards and 41 points. Then last week, Tebow threw four interceptions as the Buffalo Bills ran up 40 points on Denver.

And suddenly, they're back fighting for their lives in the division with the Oakland Raiders, who, after last week's overtime victory, are tied for the division lead.

For the Raiders, it's a must-win, and the Broncos must lose if Oakland's going to win.

And unfortunately for them, despite all the struggles the Broncos may have, they're not going to be able to stop them going to the playoffs for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, the Oakland Raiders will not be able to beat the San Diego Chargers. After the Chargers once again made their playoff run too late, they've played quality football that saw them beat the likes of Jacksonville and Baltimore before Detroit gave them a football lesson last week.

And that game will be fresh in their minds as Rivers and the boys try to salvage something from another disappointing season and show the quality of football that they should be delivering.

Secondly, Oakland just doesn't have the personnel. With Jason Campbell and Darren McFadden healthy all year, the Raiders would have won this division two weeks ago, but injuries can't be helped, and 2011 is what it is.

Finally, the Broncos are playing the Kansas City Chiefs. I know they beat the Packers, but I'm not too concerned about that. They're just not good enough to walk into Denver and beat the Broncos, who are playing for a berth in the playoffs.

The Chiefs have nothing to gain, and the Broncos have everything to lose. Expect the defense to keep it tight and the running game of the Broncos to do the rest.

AFC West Divisional Winner - Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card

With our four divisional leaders all sorted, all that remains for the American Football Conference is to determine who will gain a wild-card entry to the playoffs.

With four teams in the hunt for the final wild-card entry, it should provide some very interesting viewing in the final week of the regular season.

Teams in contention for the wild-card spot are as follows:

1. Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4)

With both sitting at 11-4, one of these two teams will clinch the division, and the other will clinch a wild-card berth. I wrote earlier in this piece that Baltimore would lose to the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Pittsburgh Steelers would clinch the division.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens clinch wild card

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)

At 9-6, if the Bengals can get past the Baltimore Ravens, then they will move to 10-6 and clinch the second wild-card position. And despite having the fourth-ranked pass defense, the Ravens' corners will struggle to contain the likes of A.J. Green, and the defensive line will struggle to pressure Smith, who showed against Pittsburgh that he is good enough to make throws in or out of the pocket.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals clinch wild card

3. Other teams in contention

With Oakland, Tennessee and New York all sitting at 8-7, they need the Ravens to beat the Bengals to have any chance of clinching a wild card. Unfortunately for them, the Bengals will do the job on Flacco and the gang, and the result of their matches will, in the end, be for nothing.

For those playing along at home, Tennessee will take down Houston, but both the Jets and the Raiders will end the 2011 season with a loss.

NFC Seed Rankings

So, with our six teams from the National Football Conference now sorted, let's have a look at where they'll all end up finishing.

No. 1 Seed - Green Bay Packers

This one is the easy one, with the Packers already clinching the No. 1 seed already. They'll have the bye and will be tough to beat at Lambeau.

No. 2 Seed - San Francisco 49ers

With both the 49ers and the New Orleans Saints sitting at 12-3 heading in to the final week, the Niners need to beat the St. Louis Rams this week to reach the No. 2 ranking. Should both teams finish 13-3, San Francisco holds the tiebreaker with a better conference record.

No. 3 Seed - New Orleans Saints

This means that the New Orleans Saints finish in the No. 3 ranking regardless of the result of their game against the Carolina Panthers. They'll play the winner of the second Wild Card in front of their home fans, where they have been simply unstoppable this year.

No. 4 Seed - New York Giants

Should the Giants take down the Cowboys, they'll finish in the No. 4 ranking and will play at home against the No. 1 Wild Card, which will be...

No. 5 Seed - Atlanta Falcons

Currently sitting at 9-6 and in the second wild-card spot, the Falcons are at home versus Tampa Bay in a game they feel they should win comfortably. They'll overtake the Detroit Lions, who will lose on the road to the Green Bay Packers. With both teams then finishing at 10-6, the Falcons hold the edge over the Lions with a better conference record.

No. 6 Seed - Detroit Lions

The Lions will go down to the Packers at Lambeau and will finish in the No. 6 position, having arguably the hardest game of the entire NFC in traveling to the New Orleans Saints.

AFC Seed Rankings

So, with our six teams from the American Football Conference now sorted, let's have a look at where they'll all end up finishing.

No. 1 Seed - New England Patriots

The Patriots have been the class act of the AFC once again this year, and when they take down the Bills on the road, they'll have a lock on the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

No. 2 Seed - Pittsburgh Steelers

After the Steelers record a crushing win over the Browns and the Ravens lose to the Bengals, Pittsburgh will have the first week of the playoffs off before coming out at Heinz Field, a place where they are always tough to defeat.

No. 3 Seed - Houston Texans

Despite finishing the year at 10-6 and on the heels of three straight losses, the Texans will still hang on to the No. 3 seed. They will be exposed in the first round of the playoffs, and despite the noted losses of Schaub, Johnson and Leinart, Yates and Arian Foster will show the heart that took them to the top of the division.

No. 4 Seed - Denver Broncos

Tebow has taken the Broncos to the playoffs, but they will face a really tough test at home. They're not known for performing in the big games, but as long as it's close, you can never rule Tim and the offense out of clinching a win.

No. 5 Seed - Baltimore Ravens

Furious after losing the division title to the Steelers, the Ravens could come out breathing fire against Tebow. And after the defensive line failed to deliver for three straight weeks, they could pressure Tebow into a mistake-riddled game. That matchup could prove to be a cracker, though.

No. 6 Seed - Cincinnati Bengals

After taking down the Ravens in the final week, the Bengals become the third AFC North team to make the playoffs and could go a long way with an initial matchup against the vulnerable Texans. I think the Bengals could be a little bit of a surprise for many teams in this playoff series.

Final Predictions

After saying I wouldn't do this, I decided to do it anyway.

AFC Predictions

1. The New England Patriots will be the team to beat simply because no other team in the conference has an offense with the ability to match the Patriots.

2. Baltimore won't make the conference final. I just can't take Flacco in the clutch games.

3. Just watch the Cincinnati Bengals. Dalton and A.J. Green have something special happening, and the offensive line is turning a corner. The defense has been strong enough to hang with the likes of the Ravens and Steelers this year, and they could be special coming into the playoffs.

Conference final: New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Predictions

1. The Packers and the Saints won't be beaten at home. They haven't been beaten there all year, and the playoffs will be no exception. The Superdome is a special place for the Saints, and the freezing cold of Lambeau is a place that nobody wants to travel to.

2. Detroit is the only offense that could hang with either of these two teams. If the AFC contains the defensive teams, the NFC has the offensive, and you've got to put up 30 points if you're going to win it.

3. San Francisco will not win a game. Even at home, with the success they've had this year, Smith is not good enough to score enough points. Frank Gore can't do everything offensively; they need Smith to convert on some long throws, especially against vulnerable secondaries.

Conference final: Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl Predictions

New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints. 1,000 yards, 17 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

It might be a little tongue-in-cheek, but the point is the same. The Saints will win by nine with a late, failed fourth-down conversion by the Patriots giving the Saints ideal field position. And expect Brees to not make a mistake that close to home.

Winner: New Orleans Saints