What's My Line? Week 1 NFL Games Picked Against the Spread

Even the best pro football handicappers are terrible. With so many variables and intricacies in the modern game, many will struggle to reach that 55 percent win rate necessary to profit from wagering on football this season. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try.

Whether you take my game previews as simply a guide to help follow the action this weekend or as a blueprint for paying off your mortgage is entirely up to you, but toward the end of each week, I’ll be picking NFL games against the spread. I hope you enjoy these picks and leave one or two of your own in the comments.

Games start at 1 p.m. ET unless otherwise noted. Home teams are listed in all caps.

Let’s do this.

New Orleans +4.5 over GREEN BAY (Thursday, 8:30 p.m.)

Hey, Drew Brees is a Super Bowl MVP, and so is Aaron Rodgers. What a game to kick off the season. Am I insane for picking against the defending champs, especially since they’ve only lost three home games in two years? Maybe, but the opening games have traditionally been close, and I don’t expect the team with the championship hangover to pull away here.

Also, the over-under for this game is 47, easily the highest total of the week. Yes, it’s Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but it’s still Week 1. Don’t expect both offenses to be firing on all cylinders this early in the year. I love the under here.

Updated: The Pack won, covered the spread, and hit the over. The season is underway and I'm officially 0-1. 

HOUSTON -8 over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Peyton Manning will miss his first NFL start ever on Sunday against the Texans, which probably isn’t as mind-boggling at first blush as it should be. Do you know the last guy to start at quarterback for the Colts that wasn’t named Peyton Manning?

Jim Harbaugh.

Yes, the Jim Harbaugh coaching the 49ers today. Manning played through Harbaugh’s entire coaching career, starting every game at quarterback after the coach-to-be left, for 13 years. It’s a stunning achievement, especially in today’s ultra-violent NFL.

And even if Arian Foster doesn’t practice today, the Colts will still be underdogs here. His hamstring is still entrenched in anti-awesome territory, but the Texans can’t miss the chance to get ahead in their division early. With Peyton Manning on the sidelines, the Texans’ chances improve significantly.

Pittsburgh +2.5 over BALTIMORE (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Two and a half points in this game is like 10 points for Saints-Packers. The over-under is 35.5, and with scattered thunderstorms over the next four days, the under looks appetizing. A lot of folks say that these defensive struggles are boring. Ignore those people. It’s heightened drama when two teams with pretty good offenses are forced to invent new strategies on the fly for moving the ball.

Also, Ray Lewis is 36, and you may not get another season to enjoy him in big games. Has anyone personified his team more than Lewis has with the Ravens? Enjoy this future Hall of Famer while you can.

NY Giants -3 over WASHINGTON (Sunday, 4:15 p.m.)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a worse stadium in the NFL than FedEx Field. The location, infrastructure and concourse layout of the joint are all horrible. It’s worse than watching a football game at IKEA. Only in an arena like that could those in attendance be praised for being the best fans in the league just before walking out with nine minutes left and trailing by only two scores, as they did in their loss to the Colts in a Sunday night game last season.

Fans like that deserve to have Rex Grossman as their starting quarterback. The former first-round pick beat out John Beck to win the starting job in DC. Of course he did. This is the same guy who threw 20 interceptions in 2006 while the Chicago Bears defense carried him to the Super Bowl. The fact that Grossman is actually starting should dispel any notion that Mike Shanahan is on the hot seat in Washington. He’s playing with fire on company time. 

DALLAS +4 over NY Jets (Sunday, 8:20 p.m.)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan and twin brother Rob Ryan will face each other from opposing NFL sidelines, and two equally overrated quarterbacks will take turns being slobbered upon by whatever two-headed corporate types are in the booth calling that particular game. In this case, it will be Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth. How can I phonetically spell “huge” with no H in it?

Detroit +1.5 over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

I'm very high on Detroit, if it wasn’t obvious, and I’d expect them to start strong against a Buccaneers team that many thought was deserving of a playoff bid last season. Let the record show that I was not one of them. I think Tampa Bay played well against a schedule that was one of the weakest in the NFL, and this year will be one of the strongest. It’s pretty sick to think that this team won 10 games last season, and they could actually improve this year and still struggle to reach the .500 plateau.

Atlanta -3 over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

No team has more wins in Week 1 than the Bears. But only two of those 51 teams had Jay Cutler.

Philadelphia -4.5 over ST. LOUIS (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Let’s see if Michael Vick slows down, now that he has cash in his pockets again.

Tennessee +3 over JACKSONVILLE (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

If you thought David Garrard’s release was sad, wait until the Jags move to Los Angeles.

KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Buffalo (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Meet the new Bills uniforms. Same as the old Bills uniforms.

Seattle +5.5 over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:15 p.m.)

The Niners lost five games by three points or less in 2010, in part because they didn’t have a quarterback. They still don’t, but the difference now is that neither does Seattle. Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson would have better success in a buddy-cop movie than they would facing each other in this game. Would you go see “Smith and Jackson” in theaters? I think you might.

ARIZONA -7 over Carolina (Sunday, 4:15 p.m.)

The Cardinals are going to sell out their umpteenth straight game (they haven’t failed to pack the house since University of Phoenix Stadium first opened its doors in 2006), and they will face a first-year head coach with a first-year quarterback. But even when you consider that Ron Rivera hasn’t had more than a couple of months to work with Cam Newton, keep in mind that Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb actually has had less time with his new team, having been traded from Philadelphia in late July.

But one team has Larry Fitzgerald, and it’s not the Panthers, whose rebuilding needs on defense are enough to make FEMA blush. They finished 26th in points allowed last year and all they did in the offseason was sign Charles Johnson to that ridiculous $72 million contract. Carolina could seriously go 0-16 this year, but if they actually win a game, will the 2008 Detroit Lions do a PBR toast? Because they should.

SAN DIEGO -8.5 over Minnesota (Sunday, 4:15 p.m.)

I might be the only one that wants to see more balance throughout the day on NFL Sundays. I can’t stand that there are eight games kicking off at 1 p.m. but only three games kicking off at 4. And that’s really all I have to say about this game except that Zygi Wilf probably tore a rotator cuff when the Vikings reached for Christian Ponder in the first round. 

CLEVELAND -6.5 over Cincinnati (Sunday, 1 p.m.)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a more dramatic contrast in styles of running an NFL team. In the Browns' corner, Cleveland owner Randy Lerner spends money on free agents, retooled his front office with team president Mike Holmgren in 2010 and actually took a meeting with two of the team’s fans a couple years ago in order to discuss what else could be done. Oh, and they should have to submit a DNA sample after that shocking trade with Atlanta during this year’s draft. The Browns, while terrible, are continually striving to improve.

The Bengals are not. Their owner, Mike Brown, doesn’t provide his team with a practice bubble, a full front office or even a scouting department. And the Bengals’ Brown handles all the GM duties himself. So instead of trading disgruntled quarterback Carson Palmer, who threatened to retire, Brown did nothing. I’m pretty sure that Carson and I are rooting for the same team in this game. 

New England -7 over MIAMI (Monday, 7 p.m.)

Tom Brady vs. Chad Henne. Wow; even on paper, that doesn’t look fair.

DENVER -3 over Oakland (Monday, 10:15 p.m.)

I love the Monday night doubleheaders. At least I do until Tuesday morning rolls around.

Check back here for Week 1 coverage tonight and throughout the weekend. We’re going back to football.