2011 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Will the Carolina Panthers Trade the Top Pick?
It's that time of the year again.
The 2011 NFL Draft has arrived. In the NFL, no event piques as much interest from the fans. For stronger teams, it is an opportunity to fill the remaining chinks in the armor. For weaker teams, it is a chance to replenish the team's supplies and reverse the direction the team is heading. It is truly a universally beneficial event for all teams.
With the endless possibilities for what each team will do, it is also, with little doubt, the most suspenseful spectacle of the year.
With that in mind, here's an attempt to take a look at what each team will do in the draft. There will be deals, (hopefully) sound reasoning behind each of them, and perhaps even a few surprises.
Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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When all is said and done, it is likely the Panthers will keep this selection. Few teams have enough ammunition to move up, and the fact that current players cannot be traded makes things even harder. Furthermore, there isn't a consensus top prospect who any team would want to move up for.
The Panthers are likely going to end up deciding between four players: Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green, Cam Newton, and Blaine Gabbert. Peterson and Green are the two most talented players in the draft. However, the positions they play aren't as valuable as the quarterback position Newton and Gabbert play.
Green and Peterson will probably both remain in consideration until the last minute. However, should it come down to Newton and Gabbert, Newton will probably get the nod. Newton is the superior athlete, and he has shown the ability to perform on the biggest stages. Newton also brings the glamour, charisma, and personality that could be more effective in channeling Carolina's fortunes back in the right direction.
Jimmy Clausen is still on the team after being drafted in the second round last year. His presence may affect the decision, but in the end, new head coach Ron Rivera might decide from last year's body of play that he isn't going to cut it.
It is interesting that a few months ago, Andrew Luck was the only quarterback considered a top ten pick. When he backed out of the draft, two other quarterbacks suddenly became legitimate options for the top pick. Although reflecting poorly on the talent of Gabbert and Newton, it goes to show the value of the position, which may be the ultimate deciding factor that sways Carolina's decision in favor of Newton.
Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, DB, LSU
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With wide receiver and quarterback the only offensive positions that look like considerations in the top five, the Broncos will likely look towards defense with their first pick. The Broncos drafted both a wide receiver and quarterback in the first round last year in Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow, and neither was even the top player at their respective positions last year, making the outlook look fairly positive for both positions.
Therefore, the Bronco's selection will probably come down to three players: Marcell Dareus, Von Miller, and Patrick Peterson.
The Broncos have switched to a 4-3 defense since the arrival of John Elway, and they'll be looking for a defensive tackle to fill one of the interior spots on their new defensive line. Dareus is considered the top defensive tackle in the draft, so he's definitely an option.
Von Miller may also be considered as a linebacker who would replace Robert Ayers at defensive end on passing downs. However, Miller is considered by many a better fit in a 3-4 defense. Since he's a questionable fit in the defense, Peterson and Dareus may be considered over him.
Finally, there is Patrick Peterson. No cornerback has ever been selected in the top two in the NFL draft. If Peterson were the pick here, he'd make history. And there are definitely reasons to assume he is going to be the pick here.
First, John Elway has recently expressed that he feels shutdown cornerbacks are about the same level as fearsome pass-rushers in terms of positional value. Pass-rushers are commonly thought to be the third most valuable position, behind only left tackles and quarterbacks.
So it seems Peterson would be viewed on the same level as Miller in terms of positional value, but Peterson would fit the defense. Additionally, defensive tackles seldom become dominant pass-rushers, so its plausible that Elway might even put defensive tackle, Dareus's position, under cornerback when pondering positional value.
Furthermore, Peterson is one of two players in this year's draft to be widely considered one of the most talented prospects in a long, long time. Peterson has been a consistently strong player ever since his years in high school; most of the prospects in the top ten this year have only been successful for about a year.
And Peterson would fill a need. Despite Bailey's re-signing, the Broncos could use a heir for him, or even a heir for Brian Dawkins. Bailey might even eventually move to the safety position anyways, creating a hole at the cornerback position.
Ultimately, if John Elway wants to go with a position of high positional value, and also choose the best player available, its going to be hard for him to pass up on Patrick Peterson.
Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama
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The Bills had the worst run defense in the league last year, allowing nearly 170 rushing yards a game.
It starts with their defensive line. Last year, Kyle Williams was the only one really doing anything. The other youngsters and veterans alike could not stop a run if their lives depended on it.
If Marcell Dareus is available at the third overall selection, he would be an excellent pick to anchor the defensive line alongside Williams.
Dareus plays with excellent technique and is a mentally strong player. He plays with a strong passion and his personality is something Chan Gailey will never have to worry about.
Von Miller is also an option. He would go a long way in giving the Bills some pass-rush. Chris Kelsay, Arthur Moats, and Aaron Maybin aren't a formidable trio. Kelsay is at age 31, and has never gotten over 5.5 sacks in his career. Moats is solid but not spectacular. Maybin is one of the biggest busts in recent history.
Miller had 27.5 sacks, more than the Bills had last year, in his last two years at Texas A&M.
Patrick Peterson would also be a possibility here if available. Gailey definitely isn't scared of taking the best player available even when it's not a need (see C.J. Spiller) and Peterson has a strong chance of being that player.
Given the current scenario though, Dareus appears to be the ideal pick for the Bills. He would immediately contribute in improving the Bill's run-stopping woes, and could even be a sleeper pick for defensive rookie of the year. A player like Dareus would be a terrific boon to the Bill's current state.
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Cincinnati Bengals: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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The Bengal's needs would be much more clear had there been no lockout.
No one knows if Carson Palmer is leaving or not, but Mike Brown's stubbornness must be taken into equation, meaning Blaine Gabbert is not a very strong option.
Running back is ambiguous as well. Will Cedric Benson re-sign?
At the wide receiver position, there's obviously Owens and Ochocinco but, keep in mind, even if they leave, the Bengal's corps may not be depleted. When neither of them played in Week 16 and 17 last year, the pass offense was clicking very well.
On defense, cornerback is a strong position for the Bengals, but they may lose some players to free agency this year. Safety is not a strength, and could use improvement, but there is no safety good enough to be taken this high.
The linebacker position has a lot of youngsters of pretty solid players.
At defensive end, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson seem to stand out as young, quality players. They are backed by veterans who once were a formidable duo.
But, at defensive tackle, though Peko and Williams aren't terrible, an improvement could be found. Pat Sims and Geno Atkins are solid backups and nickel-rushers, but the Bengals may opt for a distinct starter in this year's draft. Fairley could be that guy.
Nick Fairley has character problems, but that really has never been a problem in Cincinnati.
Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
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If Von Miller is available at five, it would be hard imagining the Cardinals not taking him. One might liken this to the Seahawks getting Russell Okung last year.
The Cardinals could sure use another linebacker opposite O'Brien Schofield next year. With Miller, Schofield, and Washington, the Cardinals could have a young nucleus of talented linebackers.
Miller has sacked the quarterback 27.5 times over the past two years. He is arguably the third most talented prospect in this year's draft, behind Green and Peterson.
It also helps that he's no one-year wonder, like many of the players in the top ten this year.
Green is available, but it doesn't seem conventional for a team to draft a number wide receiver in the top five, let alone the top ten.
Blaine Gabbert is also an option, but Ken Whisenhunt knows his job is on the line, and he may not want to put his job at risk with a rookie quarterback.
Despite that, many still peg Gabbert as a legitimate possibility. Gabbert's hidden talent was recently exposed: his ability to retain information is downright amazing.
Some feel that because of this, Gabbert would be able to learn Whisenhunt's offense like a crafty veteran, and hence erase Whisenhunt's fear of putting his job in the hands of a rookie quarterback
Still, the general feel around Arizona is that the team will go defense. Miller makes a lot of sense here. Arizona could also trade down.
Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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With Colt McCoy looking the part of a franchise quarterback, the Browns need to surround him with some weapons. While already boasting a fairly strong left side of the offensive line and a powerful running game, the Browns lack a game-changing receiving threat.
A.J. Green could be the guy they're looking for.
Green is one of the guys in this year's draft who has produced large numbers nearly every year he's played. He's no one-year wonder, and there's plenty of film to watch, even going back to his years as a high school superstar.
Julio Jones is described by many as a possibility to surpass him because he had a better combine and is a better fit for the offense. While surprise selections like these have happened in the past (see Trent Williams in 2010, Darrius Heyward-Bey in 2009), Green is still the better talent, and it just doesn't seem possible that arguably the most talented player in the draft falls further than sixth.
Jones is definitely a possibility here however, and perhaps Cleveland's decision will become more clear as the draft nears.
San Fransisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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Is Blaine Gabbert trying to look like Tom Brady with that haircut?
Anyways, this is a difficult pick because Jim Harbaugh might want to wait a year to see if he can get Andrew Luck, whom he coached while he was at Stanford.
However, doing so would in all likelihood mean sacrificing another season at the expense of the 49er's fans and the team's playoff hopes. With the NFC West still completely up for grabs, getting a quarterback sooner rather than later could allow the 49ers to win the jostle for the top dog spot in the division.
The 49ers are one of the most talented teams in the league. They have invested multiple high draft picks in their offensive line, they have a pro bowl running back, and have solid talent in their wide receiving core. They have an All-Pro tight end and a surprisingly stellar defense, led by Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, and Dashon Goldson.
The final piece the team needs is a quarterback. Gabbert could be the final piece of the puzzle.
Furthermore, it doesn't hurt that Gabbert has shown remarkable memory skills that would allow him to learn the offense quickly and contribute immediately
Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara, DB, Nebraska
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The Lions trade the 13th overall and the 75th overall selections to Tennessee in return for the eighth overall selection. With Fairley off the board, whom Tennessee is believed to covet, trading down is a possibility for the Titans.
Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara make up the upper echelon of cornerbacks. With cornerback one of the Lion's biggest needs, moving up is the only way for them to get one of the two.
The Cowboys, Redskins, Texans, and Vikings are the next four teams that pick, and all four could possibly take Amukamara.
Amukamara would give the Lions secondary a big boost alongside Louis Delmas.
If the Lions don't move up, they might take Jimmy Smith or an offensive lineman. In all likelihood, neither Smith nor any of the linemen rank higher on the Lions' big board than Amukamara.
Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE, UNC
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Houston trades the 11th overall pick and the 105th overall pick to swap places with Dallas and jump past Washington.
Drafting Robert Quinn would be a huge boon to the Texan's defense. With Wade Phillips in town, the Texans are in a 3-4 defensive scheme and Mario Williams is going to play with his hand on the ground as a defensive end. So, the only viable option at 3-4 outside linebacker is Conner Barwin. Robert Quinn would be a great pick to play alongside Barwin in the defense and to possibly make Houston's pass-rush one of the most fearsome in the league.
Wade Phillips might even liken getting Quinn to getting another DeMarcus Ware.
If Houston is indeed interested in Quinn and he is available come draft day, jumping in front of the Redskins could be a real possibility. There's no definite position the Redskins are rumored to be targeting, but linebacker is one position they're believed to be interested in.
Furthermore, the Redskins are rumored to be trying to trade the pick. There's no telling if they trade it to a team like New England, who is in search for a 3-4 outside linebacker. Trading up would be a necessary precaution should the Texans be interested in Quinn.
Washington Redskins: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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As detailed in the last slide, the Redskins have a whole ton of options with this pick. They could pick a quarterback, whether taking a tier-two quarterback (Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton), or having a tier-one quarterback (Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert) drop to them. They could take a wide receiver, running back, cornerback, or linebacker. The options for this pick are endless.
With the above being the case, there really isn't much to do except consider rumors; if the rumors are too muddled to decipher, give them the best player available.
The rumors are that they are going to trade the pick. The likelihood of this is high, but there hasn't been a distinct trade partner thus far, especially when not knowing who will be available at tenth.
If Jones is available, like in this mock, then a possible trade partner could be San Diego with their plethora of picks, or Jacksonville. Less likely options include St. Louis (they need to keep all their picks; not trade them), Kansas City, Chicago, and Baltimore.
Still, the Redskins may just choose to keep the pick for themselves and take Jake Locker. The McNabb experiment has seemed to have ended, with his benching last year. A new quarterback should be prioritized to push the Redskins forward.
Locker could have been the first overall pick last year had he entered the draft. And remember, last year's draft was one of the most talented in recent history. Locker clearly has the talent, and when noting his weak supporting cast at Washington, could be considered a steal here for Washington.
As stated above, there are many other players the Redskins (or another team) could take here, but with so many needs, it isn't necessary to list out the players.
Dallas Cowboys: Mark Ingram, RB, Auburn
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The Cowboys acquired this pick after trading with Houston.
The Cowboys are most often linked to Tyron Smith, Prince Amukamara, Cameron Jordan, and Mike Pouncey.
While two of those three are still available, it is not out of realm to see the Cowboys draft Ingram.
Jerry Jones seems to love making a splash, and teams don't always do what's conventional either; see the Bills taking Spiller last year.
Also, it's worth noting that running back does seem to be a need. Marion Barber has regressed tremendously and Felix Jones hasn't panned out like Dallas would like (especially when considering out the 2008 NFL draft had so many good running backs). The Cowboys don't seem to like Tashard Choice enough to plant him as a starter next year.
It makes Ingram all the better option. It doesn't hurt that he has often been compared with Emmitt Smith, in that he's not the fastest, but he plays with heart and power.
And despite the slow 40, Ingram clearly doesn't lack the talent. He has dominated college football the past two years, even winning the Heisman trophy last year. And did have one of the fastest runs in the first ten yards of the 40-yard dash, showing his explosiveness.
There is talk that Mikel Leshoure will be taken over Ingram, but Ingram shows the heart and instincts that really allures teams. An example of something similar can be seen in Brandon Graham, who was taken over Jason Pierre-Paul last year despite being a much worse prospect in terms of physical tools. Graham showed a very strong heart and love for the game though, and the Eagles traded up to make Graham the first defensive end selected.
Smith remains a strong option here though, as tackle is a more evident need than running back. His athleticism may enthrall Dallas, but the thinking here is that the Cowboys might believe someone like Ben Ijalana could do the job in round two. Ingram also just seems to be the splashier pick, which would suit Jerry Jones just fine.
Minnesota Vikings: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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Although many Vikings fans have stated that defensive end is not a need, Cameron Jordan may change their minds.
Jordan is the son of former Viking Steve Jordan, who was one of the best tight ends in team history. So obviously, Cameron has a connection to the Vikings.
Teams generally love seeing players who've been brought up by former coaches or players. They like these players because they've been around the game much longer and are probably diligent disciples of the game or knowledgeable prospects.
Jordan does seem to be a better fit for the 3-4 defense, but it's not like he can't play 4-3. He and Da'Quan Bowers are also probably the leading candidates to be the first defensive end taken. Jordan gets the nod because of a rising stock from the senior bowl and combine.
True, the defensive end position may not be the biggest need for the Vikings, but Ray Edwards might leave and Everson Griffen has recently gotten into some legal trouble. And it's never a bad idea to draft the best player available.
Quarterback is definitely an option for the Vikings, but Jake Locker isn't available, and no other quarterback looks like a candidate to be taken this high.
New England Patriots: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Patriots trade the 17th overall pick and the 74th overall pick in return for the 13th overall pick and the 175th overall pick.
The Patriots love to trade, but usually they trade down. The last time they traded up in the first round was for Ty Warren, whom the Patriots really coveted. Warren had an ideal size for 3-4 end, was a talented college player, and had fought through much adversary.
Would the Patriots like Da'Quan Bowers as much? Probably not.
But Bowers is a player the Patriots could very well be interested in. The Patriot's biggest need in this year's draft is to get some pass-rush to help out their last ranked third down defense and their 30th ranked passing defense.
Jerod Mayo himself even said that last year the defense was living off turnovers.
A pass-rush presence would greatly improve the third down defense and pass defense. With a guy like Bowers pairing up with Jermaine Cunningham, the Patriots could finally have a pair of competent outside linebackers.
As always, the Patriots are very hard to guess. The motto for predicting a Patriots draft should be predict the unpredicted or expect the unexpected. That's how you get it right.
Another thing that makes this pick hard to guess is the lack of "M" prospects in this year's draft. The Patriots have drafted a player whose last name starts with "M" in the first round for each of their last five first round picks. Yes, just giving the Patriots any player whose last name starts with "M" might seem overly irrational or superstitious, but mocking the Patriot's pick is like grasping at straws.
There doesn't appear to be a strong "M" candidate at this point in the first round that fills a position of need, so don't be surprised if the Patriots continue to trade up (Von "M"iller?), or take a player not commonly mocked in the first round.
St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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This is the ideal situation for the Rams.
Julio Jones falls to 14th. Jones is one of the most consistent performers in the draft (he's been productive all three years), so he's a rather safe selection.
He also recorded blazing combine numbers and really has the build of the next Roddy White.
Giving Sam Bradford a target like Jones to work with could really make this offense the next "greatest show on turf." Bradford would throw to Jones, and Steven Jackson would work the running back spot.
Steve Spagnuolo has done a great job of coaching up the defense, and the draft picks he's investing on offense are really panning out. Bradford and Saffold were both great picks, and Jones could further boost Spag's drafting reputation. The Rams are clearly a team whose arrow is pointing up.
Other possible options for this pick include Mike Pouncey, who would help fortify the interior of the Ram's line, and Corey Liuget, who could immediately become a starter at defensive tackle for the Rams.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, DB, Colorado
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The Eagles trade the 23rd overall pick, the 85th overall pick, and the 104th overall pick in return for the 15th overall pick.
This would mean the Eagles trade up two years in a row, which is fairly unorthodox.
However, it's also worth noting that the Eagles have made 21 selections over the past two years. They have a total of ten selections again this year.
There's no way they can fit that many players onto their roster. They have two options, both of which they are known for exercising. They can trade into next year, or trade up.
If the Eagles feel Jimmy Smith is the right fit for their roster, they will trade up, especially with Smith's stock seemingly on the rise. Andy Reid has never been a hesitant bystander when it comes to players he wants.
This trade would also make sense for the Dolphins. The Dolphins need a running back, a quarterback, or help on the interior offensive line. The general feeling is that they're content testing Chad Henne for another year though, so it's unlikely they would take a quarterback in the first round unless they trade down.
The other two needs really can be addressed with a pick in the lower end of the first round. Also, the Dolphins don't have a second-round pick so moving down would replenish their pick supply.
Jacksonville Jaguars: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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The Jaguars shocked nearly everyone last year when they took Tyson Alualu with the tenth overall pick. That probably won't happen again, but it did say something about Gene Smith.
Smith clearly likes guys with strong character and doesn't hesitate to go with the player highest on his board.
At this point, the highest guys are probably Aldon Smith, Mike Pouncey, Corey Liuget, and Tyron Smith. J.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan are starting to receive interest as well.
After drafting two defensive tackles in the first two rounds last year and having the promising Terrance Knighton, Corey Liuget appears to be out of the equation.
After drafting Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe in the first two rounds of 2009, Tyron Smith appears to be out of the equation.
Coming down to Smith, Watt, Jordan, and Pouncey, it's clear all could be the pick. At this juncture, the Jaguars may look at who has the strongest character.
J.J. Watt has been playing the angle of being a high-character, hardworking guy. His story of working for a pizza chain may convince the Jaguars that he is there guy.
There is some talk that Watt is too oversized to play in a 4-3 defense, but the Jags have been rumored to be looking for a larger 4-3 end. Still, this pick could go in a variety of directions, depending on how the Jaguars have their board organized.
Tennessee Titans: Andy Dalton, QB, Nevada
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The Titans acquire this pick after trading with the Lions and the Patriots.
In all honesty, the Titan's largest need is a quarterback. Almost every other need is minor or of little positional value. For the Titans, getting a potential franchise quarterback in this year's draft is a must, and with the second tier of quarterbacks seemingly rising, the probability they get one in the second round is looking more and more bleak.
They may have to settle for taking one in the first round. Andy is one of the quarterbacks who has been rising steeply over the past few months and the top twenty does not seem to be out of reach for him.
It's hard to tell how teams rank the second tier quarterbacks. If the Titans think Mallett is better, they may take him instead. Dalton, it seems though, has gotten the brightest reports thus far. So for now, he seem to be the leading candidate to be the fourth quarterback taken overall.
If the Titans opt not to take a quarterback here, they might be interested in Corey Liuget or Mike Pouncey. Pouncey would resolve their interior line issues, with Leroy Harris and Eugene Amano struggling last year, and Liuget would bring some depth to their defensive line.
San Diego Chargers: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
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The popular belief is that the Chargers need help in their front seven. Cameron Heyward could be the perfect prospect to give the Chargers the help they need.
The value in the draft is probably strongest around the sixth to tenth picks and the 20th to 24th picks. That's where the first tier talent leftovers come and the second tier leftovers come, respectively.
The Chargers, unfortunately, may be in one of the poorest places to pick. Even the front part of the second tier might be better, allowing them to take a top second tier player (if that makes sense).
The Chargers are known for being aggressive, but if they stay here, Heyward makes a lot of sense.
Heyward comes off as a smart, strong prospect with NFL bloodlines. He is the son of Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, who has recently had injury problems, is the leading candidate to be the third defensive end off the board, behind Watt and Jordan. Some believe he could even be taken over Watt.
The Chargers may choose to trade up to get Cameron Jordan. They could also take the best player available here, like Tyron Smith, Aldon Smith, or Corey Liuget.
New York Giants: Tyron Smith, OL, USC
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The Giants really don't have any glaring needs. They could just go with the best player available. However, some help on the offensive line probably wouldn't hurt; all but one of their starters on the offensive line are over 30.
With Tyron Smith on the board, perhaps the Giants could go best player available and put some work into their offensive line.
Smith is a popular pick to go to the Cowboys, who pick ninth. Falling to nineteenth, he could very well be the highest player on the Giant's board.
Additionally, Smith is a very raw player with a high ceiling. Letting him sit behind one of the current tackles to learn and develop would be ideal for him.
Another reason for the Giants to take a tackle would be the fearsome pass-rushers in their division. Including themselves, all the teams in the division have fearsome pass-rushers, including the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Brian Orakpo, and Trent Cole. The Eagles especially also are known for aggressive blitzes.
Some other options for this pick include Mike Pouncey, Jimmy Smith if available (a few of their cornerbacks' contracts expire after this year), and Corey Liuget. Pouncey is especially interesting; their center, Shaun O'Hara, is the oldest starter on the offensive line and Pouncey is the top center prospect in this year's draft, so he might fill a more immediate need than Tyron Smith.
Of course, the Giants could always select another defensive end.
Tampa Bay Buccanneers: Aldon Smith, DL, Missouri
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The Buccaneers exceeded all expectations last year. With arguably the strongest rookie class, the Bucs were able to claw their way to 8-8 under the leadership of head coach Raheem Morris.
Things look bright for the Buccaneers. With a young nucleus made up of Josh Freeman, Mike Williams, and Gerald McCoy, this team has the potential to be very good.
Gerald McCoy was playing very well the weeks before he got injured. A strong defensive end would greatly complement McCoy.
Aldon Smith is a great value here. His potential has allured many to consider him a top 15 pick; however there is concern that length may make him an ungainly pass defender in the 3-4 defense.
The Bucs need some more star-power on their team if they want to push their team to the next level. They had zero players make the Pro Bowl last year. The Buccaneers need to have a good draft again this year if they wish to get that star-power and move their team up in the competitive NFC South.
A defensive end seems overly popular here however, and the Buccaneers could choose to surprise the league. An offensive lineman like Pouncey, Watkins, or one of the many offensive tackles wouldn't be out of the realm. Additionally, the Buccaneers could add to their collection of cornerbacks in the wake of Aqib Talib's most recent arrest.
Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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With Anthony Castonzo falling to 21st, the Chiefs could take him and secure their left tackle of the future. It would allow them to move Brandon Albert to guard (his intended position when he was drafted) or right tackle. Albert allowed 11 sacks last year.
With Phil Taylor's foot issues reportedly a concern and no clear No. 3 wide receiver in the draft, the Chiefs may settle for an offensive tackle. Many feel as if Castonzo is the best tackle in this year's draft, and he could really go much higher than this.
Trading up for a wide receiver seems to be out of discussion, given the price and lack of positional value. Scott Pioli doesn't seem to value taking offensive linemen in the first round too much, but Castonzo is a class act and fits the type of player Pioli prefers. He also has ideal size for the position.
A 3-4 outside linebacker could be strongly considered here or back at the 21st overall selection. However, the Chiefs seem to prefer the wider, stouter outside linebackers who can set the edge over the long, ungainly ones that may have trouble in coverage.
Therefore, a player like Aldon Smith could be passed over. However, a player like Adrian Clayborn could be a possibility, along with Jabaal Sheard, whose stock seems to be rising. If available, Da'Quan Bowers could also be a fit. It seems that Justin Houston could be a possibility as well.
Indianapolis Colts: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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After investing in so many defensive ends, perhaps the Colts should look at defensive tackle for once. In Week 1 of last season, Arian Foster ran over the Colts for 231 yards, serving as a wake-up call for the Colts defense.
Although the Colts defense improved over the course of the season, Daniel Muir and Fili Moala still have their struggles, particularly against the run, rendering defensive tackle a need.
Although the Colts are not known for drafting defensive tackles, recall that the same was said for them when they drafted Tony Ugoh, an offensive tackle. It goes to show that even though Polian's Colts are known for floccinaucinihilipilificating (sorry, it's hard to resist) the defensive tackle position and the positions along the offensive line, they will still pick a player if he is the right fit for them.
Corey Liuget could be the right fit for the Colts at defensive tackle. He seems to be a quick pass-rushing defensive tackle who plays with tenacity and aggressiveness, but is still able to hold his own against the run. Although the Colts seem to prefer run-stuffing defensive tackles, Liuget's skill level may be too good to pass up at this point.
Liuget has been steadily rising and there is some talk he could be a top ten pick. Indianapolis could be getting tremendous value here.
Additionally, his pass-rushing skills suit the Colt's preference for blitzing rarely, and it's not like he's completely inept against the run; he'd, in all likelihood, be an improvement over who the Colts currently have, to say the least.
The Colts are known for drafting wide receivers, running backs, and defensive ends, but last year's performance may implore them to start drafting at positions that they may not hold in the highest regard. These positions are what they will need to make the most of Manning's twilight years (he's not declining yet, but he's aging).
There is some talk about them drafting Andy Dalton, but that sounds a lot like a smokescreen. At this point, a defensive tackle or an offensive tackle are fairly strong possibilities for the Colts in round one.
Miami Dolphins: Ryan Mallett, Quarterback, Arkansas
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Ryan Mallett could be the most talented quarterback in the draft.
Last year, only Mallett and Locker were discussed as possible high picks in this year's draft. They are the quarterbacks in this year's draft with the most experience and have played high consistently.
Obviously there are some character problems with Mallett. If he didn't have any, he could be the first pick overall. The question is, could the Dolphins handle Mallett's inexperience?
If the Dolphins can talk themselves into getting an extreme steal with Mallett, than it's possible. He could be the next Ryan Leaf or the next Phillip Rivers.
Apparently, Brandon Marshall likes Ryan Mallett as well, comparing him to Matt Ryan.
Ultimately, for the Dolphins, it's just time to get a franchise quarterback. They may have been hoping for Dalton here but, if he's not, Mallett or some other quarterback will have to do. Over the past few years, they've gotten upgrades through free agency or with high picks in the draft at nearly ever major position, except quarterback (Pat White doesn't count).
Quarterback, running back, interior line, and perhaps tight end are the Dolphin's main needs. A quarterback has the most positional value by far in comparison to the others, and there really isn't a good running back prospect in the first round other than Ingram anyways.
Another option here is Kyle Rudolph, a sleeper pick at tight end. Rudolph is a very talented prospect who may drop in the draft due to the lack of demand for tight ends. Mike Pouncey is also an option, as are all the other second-tier quarterbacks.
Oakland Raiders: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
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The Raiders trade the 48th overall pick, the 113th overall pick, and a 2012 second round pick to move up into the first round.
The Raiders reportedly are interested in trading up into the first round. And Al Davis is reportedly very interested in Colin Kaepernick, which makes sense, given his impressive physical skillset. Jason Campbell, their current quarterback, wasn't brilliant last year either.
It also makes sense for the Saints to move back here. The Saint's needs are not too major or can be found later in the draft. It's also time for them to start thinking about the future.
The Raiders reasoning in trading with the Saints would be that a quarterback run is about to start and another quarterback-needy team, Seattle, picks right after the Saints.
Kaepernick definitely fits what Al Davis looks for in speed and stature. He ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.5s, which is simply amazing for a quarterback (though this year's quarterbacks are all pretty fast). He also ran for over 1000 yards during three of his seasons at Nevada, so the dude can run.
What separates him from the other running quarterbacks? Well, his senior bowl performance was good enough to convince many that he has the throwing ability to succeed in the NFL.
And it's not hard to think what Al Davis is imagining in his mind. He sees Colin Kaepernick throwing a touchdown to Darrius Heyward-Bey, and then he sees Stanford Routt intercepting a pass on defense. On the next drive, Darren McFadden runs for 80 yards, and Kaepernick finishes the drive with a floater to Zach Miller.
If the Raiders are enthralled enough by the guy, they won't hesitate to make a move for him. They're a pretty aggressive team.
Seattle Seahawks: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
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This year's draft plays well for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks have always liked larger cornerbacks. This year, there's a whole load of them. In the first round alone, Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara, and Jimmy Smith are all bigger cornerbacks. Unfortunately for Seattle, they're all off the board.
Ras-I Dowling is still a good player though. Dowling, in this year's strong quarterback class, could be considered a first round talent. The most important thing though, is that he fits the Seahawk's scheme for larger corners.
Marcus Trufant's play has been declining, creating a void at cornerback. Kelly Jennings has been declining. After finding Earl Thomas for the secondary last year, it may be time for Seattle to upgrade their cornerback corps.
A quarterback is a slim possibility, but the Seahawks may want to give Charlie Whitehurst another year after giving up so much to get him.
They're also in a difficult situation with Matt Hasselbeck suddenly playing terrifically in the playoffs.
Another option might be a defensive tackle, with Mebane a free agent. If Corey Liuget fell here, he could certainly be the pick.
Baltimore Ravens: Muhammed Wilkerson, DE, Temple
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The Ravens are another team with ambiguous needs.
Has Flacco shown enough? Do they need a running back? How good are they on the offensive line? Is Boldin enough as a receiver? Will Todd Heap be able to play much longer with his injuries?
Is a defensive end an option? Do they need Ray Lewis's replacement? What are the options for a player opposite Terrell Suggs? Do they need Ed Reed's replacement? Why do their cornerbacks not get enough love?
The point is, there's no consensus on whom the Ravens might pick. A cornerback is popular, but they really don't need a cornerback unless their free agents leave.
When a team doesn't have a clear need, usually mocking them the best player available works. If there is no clear best player available, it never hurts to build them in the trenches.
Haloti Ngata is a dominant player, and Gregg is a fairly good lineman. The question is whether the position is a need or not. Maybe Cory Redding or Terrence Cody is enough for the third spot; but with so many mocks giving them Cameron Heyward, it appears that a defensive end wouldn't hurt. It might serve the same purpose as it served Pittsburgh when they drafted Evander Hood.
The funny thing here, though, would be if they drafted Mike Pouncey. Wouldn't that make an interesting story?
Atlanta Falcons: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Every player mocked to the Falcons this year seems so cliche. You see Kyle Rudolph a lot, you see Torrey Smith sometimes, and Kerrigan isn't uncommon also.
It goes to show that the Falcon's needs are few and slim, and there are only a few players that fill those spots. Reaching is a possibility but few people have the scouting prowess to predict a reach.
And it seems most of the positions the Falcons "need" already have an elite player there. You see the defensive end spot, with John Abraham. You see the tight end spot, with Tony Gonzalez. And you see the wide receiver spot, with Roddy White.
Clearly, the Falcons are not glaringly weak at any spot. And that's why they were so good last year.
So, is defensive end a need for the Falcons? Many people think so, but it's not, on the surface. Abraham is a Pro Bowl player, and Kroy Biermann is one of the most underrated defensive ends in the league. Behind them, they have former first round pick Jamaal Anderson.
However, all three of them are free agents after 2011. And Abraham is certainly getting up there in age. Within three years, the position could look completely different. It may be time for the Falcons to get the first piece of their defensive line of the future.
Kerrigan could be that player. He is relentless, fitting Biermann's style. One question many have of him is his ability to stop the run though, which the Falcons need to strongly consider.
Brook's Reed, Kerrigan's clone, could be another option here. A wide receiver doesn't seem likely, with a huge drop off after Julio Jones and A.J. Green. Rudolph is a possibility, but tight ends usually are able to immediately contribute and having him on the bench behind Tony Gonzalez (assuming he plays) next year would be a year wasted of his talent.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
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The Steelers trade the 31st overall pick, the 128th overall pick, and the 161st overall pick in return for New England's 28th overall pick and the 203rd overall pick.
If there's one player that one team is nearly guaranteed to have interest in, that player would be Mike Pouncey and that team would be the Pittsburgh Steelers.
After drafting Maurkice Pouncey last year, it appears the Steelers would be interested in his twin brother, Mike. The brothers were extremely close growing up and it would just seem downright odd if Mike and Maurkice weren't reunited again.
This is probably what the two brothers were hoping for when Maurkice elected to enter the draft one year earlier than Mike.
The Steeler's alleged interest has gotten to the point where if the Steelers draft another guard in the first round, say Danny Watkins, it would be downright offensive to the Steelers fan base and to Maurkice Pouncey.
After seeing Mike miraculously fall to 28th, the Steelers might decide that they've waited long enough in their frugality, and move up to select the falling lineman.
The offensive line has always been a position of need for the Steelers, and one that they often neglected to address until last year taking Maurkice Pouncey. Therefore, Mike Pouncey would still fill a need if drafted.
Mike would likely play guard in this scenario, with Maurkice staying at center.
Chicago Bears: Marvin Austin, DT, UNC
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Marvin Austin has definitely been a late riser in the draft. Austin could go as high as even 17th, but he's most commonly been mocked around this area.
This is the first first-round pick the Bears have had since 2008, and the probability they trade it is unlikely.
The probability they want a flashy pick is high too. They haven't had a first round pick for a while; they remember the feeling of getting a possible elite player, and they want to make sure they feel that again through this year's draft.
But they don't want to pick a flashy player for the sake of picking one. They want a guy who is just as good as he is flashy.
So, the Bears compromise. Marvin Austin would be a fairly flashy pick in that he has the potential to be make the Bears defensive line absolutely disgusting. He would be that good. And, he plays in the trenches, so chances are, this pick gives good positional value and addresses a need, so it definitely has more reasoning behind it than just being flashy.
Austin appears to have all the physical tools to succeed, and a nasty demeanor could make him an equally nasty pass-rusher.
An offensive tackle is obviously a possibility here as well. Fascinatingly, only two offensive tackles have been taken thus far, Anthony Castonzo and Tyron Smith. Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod are both still on the board. The Bears could also choose to take Ben Ijalana if they like him enough.
New York Jets: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Does Gabe Carimi not sound like Rex Ryan?
Carimi seems confident (perhaps overly), brash, and aggressive. He doesn't seem to mind his image too much, just like Rex Ryan.
He would certainly fit right in with the Jets.
The Jets have cut Damien Woody this offseason, and they could be looking for his replacement at tackle. Carimi, though insisting that he's a franchise left tackle, would make an excellent right tackle with his mauling style.
The Jets are also known to invest heavily in offensive linemen. They have drafted two offensive linemen in the first round since 2006 (D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold), hitting on both of them.
Carimi would be the latest investment. And it's not like he's all attitude too. Carimi has great size and won the Outland Trophy last year in college football, awarded to the top interior lineman (although it applies to both tackles and guards). Most analysts have him going in the first round.
Defensive end and outside linebacker are two other positions the Jets may look at, as they need some youth there. A player like Adrian Clayborn, Danny Watkins, or maybe even Brooks Reed are also possibilities here.
New England Patriots: John Moffitt, OL, Wisconsin
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The Patriots acquire this pick from the Steelers.
Obviously, this pick is a complete, wild guess. Oh, and this would mean back-to-back Wisconsin picks (just something to note). It would also mean the Pats pick right after a divisional rival in the first round, which the Patriots have never done in the Belichick era.
There's usually always a huge surprise pick in the late first round. And the motto for mocking with the Patriots is expect the unexpected, and predict the unpredicted.
However, there is one thing the Patriots seem to abide by. As noted with the 13th pick, the Patriots love prospects in the first round whose last name starts with "M." Their last five first-round picks are Devin "M"cCourty, Jerod "M"ayo, Brandon "M"eriweather, Laurence "M"aroney, and Logan "M"ankins.
There are really very few "M" prospects in this year's draft. But it's better to have something to work with than nothing.
The Patriots are also candidates to trade out of the first round with this pick to a quarterback-needy team. Again, this may sound overly superstitious, but don't be surprised if the Patriots trade out of the first round with the 17th pick (not the 28th), and pick up a 2012 first and maybe a second-round pick this year.
The Bills traded a 2005 first-round pick, a 2004 second-round pick (44th overall), and a 2004 fifth-round pick for Dallas' 22nd overall pick in 2004. The Patriots could receive similar value, especially if a quarterback is drafted like Buffalo drafted J.P. Losman. And the Patriots pick even higher than 22nd.
As for this pick, again, it's a wild guess. "M"offit is one of the few "M" prospects out there, and he fits a position of need. He also seems to have the playing style that Belichick likes, in that he is a team captain, physical, tough, and has a beard (yes, superstitions again).
But even Moffitt may not be unpredictable enough for Belichick. ESPN Boston has singled out Moffitt as a possible Patriot already.
The Patriots are just that hard to predict.
Green Bay Packers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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And the last pick in this mock is... Adrian Clayborn.
The Packers really don't have any evident needs. The offensive line probably has the biggest question marks, but they still have three guys they like there. And it can be addressed in the second round.
The Packers have a luxury of having few needs, and they can afford to take the best player available. It's a true luxury to have, and an offensive line need won't deter them from pursuing it, especially since they drafted an offensive lineman in the first round last year.
And it's not like the best player available won't contribute. They'll still contribute, and their talent would probably be far higher than any player picked specifically for need.
Green Bay's board is not disclosed to the public, so there is no way of knowing (unless you're really close to them) who the top player available is.
However, Clayborn makes sense. Most boards by experts have Clayborn fairly high (late teens to early twenties) and he's willing to play 3-4 outside linebacker.
The Packers aren't exactly thriving at the outside linebacker position either. Matthews is an excellent player, but they're rotating bodies at the spot opposite him. Even if it can be argued that it isn't a need, like any other position (though never be overconfident; a lust for improvement is what marks consistent success), Clayborn may still be the best player available and thus there wouldn't necessarily be a better pick here.
The Packers could really go a variety of directions here. But for the sake of ambiguous needs, the best player available (according to those who have some experience in the scouting department) will be the player mocked here.
Conclusion
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Here's an attempt to explain what's going on in the picture:
"Hey kid. Pick that up. Throw it for us." "Excuse me? I'm not a kid. I'm Newton. I invented the laws of motion and I'm going to be the top pick of the draft."
Maybe Newton is a master of the laws of motions. Maybe he will use his perfection of every law of motion to become the icon of the league and power Carolina on their way to multiple championships.
Or maybe he won't.
The NFL draft is the ultimate crap shoot. Predicting the first round is as close to impossible as one can get to.
But that's also what makes the event so suspenseful.
There will be mistakes in this mock draft. Lots of mistakes. But hopefully, the reasoning was sound. If you have any comments about poor reasoning (and can back it up) do not hesitate to post in the comments.
There were six trades in this mock draft. Assuming that the counting has been done correctly, over the last five years there have been 29 total trades in the first round. That's about 5.8 per year, so six in here is a reasonable amount.
Hopefully, you enjoyed the read. It's about time for the suspense to come to an end, and for all the draft-related events to culminate. Enjoy the draft everyone!
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