How NFL Offseason's Biggest Moves Could Backfire in 2026

Nothing is guaranteed in this league. 

In fact, history shows that the splashiest offseason blockbusters are often the ones that blow up in a team's face. 

Let's break down how this spring's 10 most high-profile transactions could return to haunt the front offices that pulled the trigger.

Los Angeles Rams Acquire Edge Myles Garrett

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Myles Garrett

The Details: The Rams traded edge Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second-round pick and a 2029 third-round pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for Garrett.

The Presumed Rationale: The Rams are going all-in one more time, likely with the impression that 38-year-old reigning MVP quarterback Matthew Stafford will soon hit a wall and/or walk away. Davante Adams is 33 and it'll soon become hard to pay everyone, so this is their declaration that it's now or never for another trophy. 

The Potential Backfire: Garrett is on the wrong side of 30 now, and it's entirely possible the Browns sold at the highest point with a potential peak in 2025. Verse was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2024 and made the Pro Bowl as a sophomore. The gap between the two could close considerably in 2026, and Verse likely won't cost Cleveland much until 2028. Garrett also won't come cheap over time, even with the Browns absorbing a lot of the costs early on. Throw in all that lost draft capital and this basically backfires if the Rams don't win the Super Bowl in the next two or three years. 

New England Patriots Acquire WR A.J. Brown

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

A.J. Brown

The Details: The Patriots traded a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 conditional fifth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for Brown. 

The Presumed Rationale: Fresh off a run to Super Bowl LX, Mike Vrabel and the Pats front office are wasting no time giving MVP runner-up Drake Maye a bona fide No. 1 receiver. Reuniting Brown with his former Titans head coach gives New England an upgrade over Stefon Diggs in the team's quest to prove that 2025 wasn't a fluke. 

The Potential Backfire: It's arguably a red flag that two teams have decided to trade Brown in or around his prime in the last four years. His addition could easily mess with a good thing in New England, especially if he becomes a distraction off the field. He also turns 29 this month, and he's coming off his second-worst season as a pro. Don't be surprised if the Patriots have moved on by 2028 but are left without a first-round pick anyway. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Re-Sign QB Aaron Rodgers

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Aaron Rodgers

The Details: The Steelers gave Rodgers a new one-year deal worth up to $25 million.

The Presumed Rationale: The money isn't back-breaking, they retain some continuity with his return, and there really weren't many other quality options in what is likely a last-ditch run for both Rodgers and this Pittsburgh core. 

The Potential Backfire: Since Rodgers hasn't been an elite quarterback since 2021, he'll almost certainly fail to get the Steelers deep into the playoffs as a washed-up, half-committed 43-year-old. Yet because there's enough talent there and around him, he and the Steelers might be just successful enough to prevent themselves from landing a primo draft pick to use on a potential Rodgers replacement. They'd arguably be better off tanking in 2026. 

Indianapolis Colts Re-Sign QB Daniel Jones

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Daniel Jones

The Details: The Colts gave Jones a new two-year, $88 million deal with $60 million guaranteed.

The Presumed Rationale: They figure that Jones flashing with some of the best play of his career in 2025 is an indication the former No. 6 overall pick is a late-blooming franchise quarterback. It would be silly for a veteran team to let Jones walk under those circumstances, right? 

The Potential Backfire: Even before he tore his Achilles in the latter part of the 2025 campaign, the 29-year-old Jones had cooled off and returned to what we often saw during his time with the Giants. He posted an 84.2 passer rating as the Colts went 1-4 in his final five starts. There's a very good chance a 2025 hot streak was a fluke, and that Jones will hog the starting spot with big cap hits the next two years, preventing the team from gaining more clarity on Anthony Richardson's future in the process. 

Minnesota Vikings Sign QB Kyler Murray

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Kyler Murray

The Details: The Vikings gave Murray a one-year, $1.3 million deal. 

The Presumed Rationale: It's an extremely low-cost kick of the tires on a former No. 1 pick who has two Pro Bowls on his resume and remains on the right side of 30. After all, J.J. McCarthy has not inspired confidence.  

The Potential Backfire: Murray could once again struggle to consistently produce, but his presence could make it more difficult for the team to get a read on McCarthy in his third season. That would leave the Vikings in the dark on how to approach their quarterback situation as the clock continues to tick on this core in 2027. 

Carolina Panthers Sign Edge Jaelan Phillips

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Jaelan Phillips

The Details: The Panthers gave Philips a four-year, $120 million deal with $80 million guaranteed. 

The Presumed Rationale: A rebuilding team that struggled to generate pressure defensively last season was looking for a game-changer on that side of the ball in its quest to further support hopeful franchise quarterback Bryce Young. 

The Potential Backfire: Phillips is due to count $32.5 million against the salary cap in 2027, and there's really no painless way for the Panthers to bail on this in the next three years. Considering that we're talking about a 27-year-old with 28 total sacks and zero All-Pro or Pro Bowl nods in five good-not-great seasons, there's a damn good chance Carolina regrets that. 

Denver Broncos Acquire WR Jaylen Waddle

AP Photo/Doug Murray

Jaylen Waddle

The Details: The Broncos traded first-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2026 to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for Waddle and a 2026 fourth-round pick. 

The Presumed Rationale: One more weapon for Bo Nix in order to take that next step toward the Super Bowl after falling just short in 2025. 

The Potential Backfire: That's a lot of lost draft capital for a guy who has rarely been relied on as a No. 1 receiver. The five-year veteran has just one season with 1,100 yards or more than six touchdowns, but he'll cost $27.1 million against the cap in 2027. This is a big change that may not have been necessary, and could potentially do more harm than good. 

Baltimore Ravens Sign Edge Trey Hendrickson

AP Photo/Gail Burton

Trey Hendrickson

The Details: The Ravens gave Hendrickson a four-year, $112 million deal with $60 million guaranteed. 

The Presumed Rationale: Baltimore was clearly in the market for a veteran pass-rusher to bolster a defense that struggled to make plays, generate pressure and limit opposing offense altogether in 2025. In this case, they took one away from a division rival as well. 

The Potential Backfire: This was probably a panic move after a deal for Maxx Crosby fell through due to medical concerns. The problem is, Hendrickson is 31 years old and coming off a season derailed by lingering core muscle injuries. Entering his 10th season, he might not have a lot left in the tank. And yet, the team is financially married to him for the next three years. They might have been better off bringing back the younger and cheaper Odafe Oweh. 

Los Angeles Rams Acquire CB Trent McDuffie

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Trent McDuffie

The Details: The Rams traded first-, fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2026 as well as a 2027 third-round pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for McDuffie. 

The Presumed Rationale: It's the same thought process as with Garrett. McDuffie was a first-team All-Pro in 2023, a second-team All-Pro in 2024 and the league's eighth-rated qualified cornerback at Pro Football Focus in 2025. He should help them gear up for a big Super Bowl push before a potential teardown in the years beyond 2026/2027. 

The Potential Backfire: A backup quarterback, a third- or fourth-string tight end and a depth offensive lineman. That's all the Rams have to show from Days 1 and 2 of the 2026 draft, while they're left with just five of their nine picks in the top three rounds of the next three drafts. Depth will soon become a major issue. Anything less than a Lombardi Trophy in the next few years and they've failed. 

Cincinnati Bengals Acquire DL Dexter Lawrence

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Dexter Lawrence

The Details: The Bengals traded the No. 10 overall pick to the New York Giants in the 2026 draft in exchange for Lawrence. 

The Presumed Rationale: A team that might be in now-or-never mode with its core decided to take on a proven veteran at a key position of need, rather than rolling the dice on a draft pick that could go bust or take years to develop. 

The Potential Backfire: Lawrence will turn 29 this season, and the big guy might be beyond his prime. His raw and rate-based numbers have dropped off the last couple of seasons, and he'll cost about $70 million over the next three years. It's hard to imagine he's the final puzzle piece for this team. And if he isn't, this is an automatic backfire.