10 Things We Think Will Happen Before the 2026 MLB Playoffs

With less than four weeks remaining until the start of Major League Baseball's 2026 postseason, the sprint to the finish line has officially begun.

Clinching countdowns, elimination numbers and surely a convoluted tiebreaking scenario or two will be all the rage throughout September, per usual.

Before we can completely set our sights on October, though, what are some of the things we expect to happen over the course of this final month of the regular season?

Will Pete Crow-Armstrong reach the 40/40 plateau? Does Shohei Ohtani pitch again? Can Yordan Alvarez lock up the Triple Crown? And who does secure those final few spots in the postseason field?

These 10 predictions for the home stretch are presented in no particular order.

Toronto Stays Hot and Crashes the Postseason Party

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On April 4, the Toronto Blue Jays lost to the Chicago White Sox, falling to 4-4 overall.

They haven't woken up to a winning record since.

Since slipping to 49-59 in late July, though, they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball at 19-11, punctuated by a sweep of the Seattle Mariners this past weekend.

They enter September just 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in a certified cluster of mediocrity for the AL's final wild card spot.

And wouldn't you know it, they open the month with a three-game set in Cleveland before closing out the regular season with 21 consecutive games against teams with .500 or worse records.

The starting rotation has been decimated by injuries, but can they take two out of three from the Guardians and then actually do something with that gift of a remaining schedule?

Brett Bateman has provided an unexpected boost, batting .333 since arriving in the Kevin Gausman trade. Alejandro Kirk has been hot over the past month, too. And George Springer has been on an absolute tear as of late, batting .487/.524/.769 over the last 12 games.

If they could just get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Ernie Clement going, they would be in business.

To that end, wouldn't it be something if Guerrero's first home run at Rogers Centre in 2026 was a walk-off blast that clinched the Blue Jays' spot in the postseason?

40+ HR & 40 SB for NL MVP PCA

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Dating back to August 11, 12 of Pete Crow-Armstrong's 22 hits have been home runs, bringing his season total to 38—just two behind Kyle Schwarber for the best mark in the majors.

During his recent explosion of five home runs in two games against the Reds, Cubs fans started to joke that he needs to quit hitting so many dingers because you can't steal bases when you're constantly trotting around them.

While there is, of course, some truth to that sentiment, PCA racked up 12 home runs and nine stolen bases in 26 games between June 3 and July 1 when he first caught fire. And Shohei Ohtani sure did prove two years ago with 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases that it's entirely possible to do both.

With 32 stolen bases to date and a very real chance to become just the seventh member of the exclusive 40/40 club, Crow-Armstrong is presumably going to have even more of a green light on the basepaths than usual, at least until he reaches that plateau.

At this point, it's not even a question of whether he'll get to 40 home runs, but rather a question of whether he could even get to 50.

Either way, the NL MVP race is effectively over now.

It could've gone either way between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani as little as four days ago. But between PCA's rampage against Cincinnati's pitching and Ohtani's return to the mound getting postponed again, Shohei's streak of three straight MVPs is coming to an end.

Yordan Alvarez Completes the Triple Crown Quest...

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At the end of July, Yordan Alvarez winning the Triple Crown was starting to look like a foregone conclusion. His .324 batting average was best in the American League by a 22-point margin. And with 35 home runs and 82 RBI, he had cushions of four and nine, respectively, in those races.

Unfortunately, he hit quite a wall in August, going through a 22-game stretch with just one home run, seven RBI and a .253 batting average.

All of a sudden, it's shaping up to be a three-way photo finish, tied with Junior Caminero for the most home runs, three RBI ahead of Pete Alonso for the lead in that department and just six points ahead of red-hot Chandler Simpson for the top batting average.

Over the course of his career, though, Alvarez has triple-slashed .306/.400/.600 in September.

Even last year, which was mostly a disastrous one for him, he still managed an OPS north of 1.000 for the 13 games he was able to play in September.

And he's going to do it again, rallying from a rough August to end up with a .319 batting average, 45 home runs and 115 RBI. He joins 2012 Miguel Cabrera as the only batting Triple Crowns since the 1960s and wins AL MVP unanimously.

...But Houston Misses Postseason on a Tiebreaker for Second Consecutive Year

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After winning road series against the Yankees and Mets this past week, the Houston Astros are back above .500, entering play on Tuesday with a two-game lead over the Texas Rangers and a six-game edge over the Seattle Mariners.

But while the Astros are currently facing the White Sox and still have series remaining against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Arizona and Seattle, the Mariners' remaining schedule might be the most favorable closing stretch in MLB history.

After finishing up their current series in Boston, the M's have a homestand against the A's and Rangers, a road trip against the A's, Angels and Rockies and a final homestand against the Astros and Angels.

It's a 22-game run in which their opponents have a combined .408 winning percentage, and their only games against a .500-or-better foe are two home contests against the Astros, the team they are chasing for the AL West crown. Seattle has already gone 9-2 against Houston this season.

Though this Mariners team hasn't been even remotely as good as last year's squad was, let's not forget that they turned a 3.5-game deficit into a 5.0-game lead by reeling off 17 wins in 18 games (including a pivotal sweep of Houston) last September.

Both Houston and Seattle finish at 82-80—while Texas remains slightly below .500—and the Mariners win the division on a tiebreaker.

Notably, 82-80 should keep the Astros right in the mix for the final wild card spot. But either Toronto or Cleveland will edge them out at 83-79.

Dodgers Pull the Plug on Shohei Ohtani's Pitching Rehab

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When Shohei Ohtani last took the mound on July 3, he was running away with the NL MVP and was easily a top five candidate for NL Cy Young Award.

His OPS was .927.

His OPS against was .519.

If he had been able to keep it up for another three months, it would have gone down as the best two-way season of his career, on pace for a WAR north of 10.

Lately, though, Ohtani simply hasn't been Ohtani.

He played in every game in August, but posted a .795 OPS. And unless you want to count September 2023 when he only played in three games, that was his worst OPS in a calendar month since April 2022.

Maybe it's just a rare slump at the dish, unrelated to the left knee, right biceps and "overall body" soreness that has kept him from pitching in a game for nearly two months at this point.

Or maybe the pitching rehab is the main reason for the hitting regression?

Unless they can somehow definitively rule that out, Dave Roberts and the Dodgers' high-level decision makers need to start asking themselves if it's really worth it to continue with his pitching rehab.

After all, they already have (provided they stay healthy) a dynamite starting rotation for the postseason featuring Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, each with a sub-2.85 ERA for the year.

Would it be nice to get Ohtani back to the point where he can be a two-inning or three-inning opener before handing the baton to Glasnow?

Of course it would.

It would also be wild if he could come back as their closer. However, using him in a relief capacity gets a bit messy, because they would lose him as their DH if they had to subsequently replace him with another reliever. Considering there were multiple marathon games in last year's World Series, they'll presumably be reluctant to go that route.

But especially with Andy Pages out indefinitely, the Dodgers need Ohtani's bat much, much more than they need his arm. They were averaging 5.4 runs per game and had a 58-31 record when he last pitched. Since then, they're at 4.0 and 24-24, respectively.

Milwaukee Brewers Re-Break Franchise Record for Wins in a Season, Earn No. 1 Seed Again

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The funny thing about all this "The Dodgers are breaking baseball!" and "We need a salary cap to level the playing field!" outrage ahead of a virtually inevitable lockout is that the low-budget Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball since the beginning of Los Angeles' reign of deferred contracts terror.

The Brew Crew were the No. 1 overall seed last year, and they are on track to get it again this year.

Better yet, if the season ended today, it would be Milwaukee (19th in tax payroll, per Spotrac) and Tampa Bay (27th in tax payroll) as the No. 1 seeds—while the 62-76 Mets have an all-in cost (payroll plus tax bill) that is about $70M greater than what the division-leading Brewers, Rays and White Sox are paying combined.

But I digress.

The Brewers are 85-53, 2.5 games clear of the Dodgers for the top overall spot. They are on pace for 99.8 wins, and merely need to go 13-11 the rest of the way to break the franchise record for wins in a season—97, set in 2025.

They'll crack triple digits, though, finishing 100-62.

They've gone 22-12 within the NL Central thus far, and 18 of their remaining 24 games are against divisional foes. The six against the Cubs represent a challenge, but the other 12 are what will help keep them atop the standings when all is said and done.

White Sox Punctuate Unreal Bounce-Back Year with 1st-Round Bye

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The Chicago White Sox have been in first place in the AL Central on a daily basis for nearly two months at this point, yet it's still hard to process how they've managed to turn things around as quickly as they have.

Just two years ago, they set the live ball era record for most losses in a single season, going 41-121. The pitching was a nightmare, aside from Garrett Crochet, who they traded away that winter. And at 3.13 runs per game, they had the lowest scoring offense in an MLB season since 1972.

Moreover, that disaster year came in the middle of a three-year streak of 100-plus losses. In MLB history, no team had won at least 71 games the year after such a run of ineptitude.

An entire factory of rose-colored glasses wouldn't have been enough to see this coming six months ago: Chicago is 72-65 and leading the American League in scoring.

The Guardians are three games back in the AL Central, with one major head-to-head series remaining. Chicago travels to Cleveland for a Sept. 14-16 clash.

But the White Sox otherwise have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the majors, while the Guardians aren't even being serious in their pursuit of the postseason, opting against using one of their September callup spots on Ralphy Velazquez—who hit .356/.433/.867 with 15 home runs in August—presumably because they want him to continue playing in the minors if there is a lockout, which players cannot do if they are on a 40-man roster.

Even if Cleveland had promoted its top prospect, though, the White Sox have had astounding staying power with Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas all on the brink of 30 home runs. They'll stay ahead and they'll secure the No. 2 seed.

Friday Night Determines Who Wins the NL East

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Both Atlanta and Philadelphia enter September on a heater.

The Braves recently won seven in a row, including sweeping the Dodgers in what they hope was a pivotal series for first-round bye purposes. But the Phillies went 21-7 in August, climbing back to within striking distance at just four games behind Atlanta in the NL East.

Better yet, they have seven head-to-head games remaining, the first of which comes this Friday in Philadelphia, with a projected pitching matchup of Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sánchez.

If Sale takes care of business like he did back in April in back-to-back wins over the Phillies (13.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 16 K), that might be all she wrote for this race. (Though, it would make things a wee bit more compelling in the NL Cy Young race.) Atlanta would be ahead 6-1 in the head-to-head series at that point, leaving the Phillies probably needing to win at least five of the remaining six to claw their way back.

But if it's Sánchez doing the shoving while the Phillies' bats get to Sale, that could be the beginning of a massive swing that bumps Atlanta out of first place in the NL East for the first time since early April.

In fact, we're going so far as to say the winner of Friday night's showdown ultimately wins the NL East. Pre-Labor Day games don't usually carry that much weight, but this one could.

Aaron Judge Returns Next Week, Albeit with Some Rust

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Aaron Judge has not played since the end of May, slowly recovering from a stress fracture in his rib.

It has already been the longest IL stint of his career, but the Yankees are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Judge accompanied the team on their current road trip, and there's a very real chance he'll return during next week's homestand against the Rockies and Mets.

Now that the "when" is close to being answered, the big question becomes how he'll look if he actually jumps right back in without a rehab assignment after more than three months on the shelf.

When he came back from a fractured wrist in mid-September 2018, he had a .675 OPS in 12 games played the rest of the way. (Though, he did hit .421/.500/.947 that postseason.)

It was a similar story in 2020 when he returned from a calf injury in mid-September and posted a .548 OPS down the stretch.

And when he missed nearly two months with a toe injury in 2023, he had a .685 OPS in his first nine games back before starting to turn things back around.

Basically, if you're expecting Judge to come back and go yard in three of his first 10 plate appearances, his history suggests you're going to be disappointed—even against the pitching staffs of the Rockies and Mets.

If he can lock back in after roughly two weeks, though, well, that'd be just in time for a massive four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays, as well as just in time for the postseason.

Return of Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta Helps Propel Padres Into Postseason

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The San Diego Padres have been waiting, waiting and waiting some more for two of their best pitchers to return from elbow/forearm injuries.

Nick Pivetta hasn't pitched in the majors since mid-April.

Joe Musgrove was last seen during the 2024 Wild Card Round.

But the former tossed 4.1 scoreless innings at Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, that coming three days after the latter allowed one run in five innings of work at the same level.

Each one reached 60 pitches and plausibly could make his next appearance in the majors.

No time like the present, too, locked in a dead heat with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL wild card spot.

It's looking likely that the race will come right down to the wire, with the Padres hosting the Snakes over the final weekend of the regular season. San Diego can't afford to cede any more ground before then, though, so working Musgrove and Pivetta into the mix ASAP could be huge—especially if it ends in those two and Michael King being lined up to start during that massive final series.

How they would make it work remains to be seen. Probably a six-man rotation with one of Casey Mize, Randy Vásquez or Walker Buehler transitioning to a bulk relief role. But having too many healthy starting pitchers sure would be a new dilemma for the Padres after the past few years of seemingly never having a complete rotation.