Golden State Warriors 2020 NBA Draft Primer

Ever since the Golden State Warriors landed the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, the big question has been: Will they trade it for a win-now piece during the offseason?

We're about to find out.     

With the draft on Wednesday, the Warriors have several options. They can trade the pick with a player for a star. They can trade the pick directly for a starter-level player. They can trade down to pick up future assets/rotation pieces. Or they can opt to not trade it and select the best prospect available. 

The first of those options is the most appealing, and thus the focus of the first three slides. The last two slides detail the rest.   

Don't Rule Out a Wiggins Trade

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

When the Warriors say Andrew Wiggins is a great fit, they probably aren't lying. He has the size and athleticism to match up with big wings, and that was a huge need after they lost Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston in one offseason. 

But it doesn't take a genius to deduce that they won't hesitate to trade him for a fourth star. 

Their only other avenues to get one—which might be what it takes to win another title now that they don't have great depth—are through the draft and using the traded player exception, which expires Nov. 23. 

The chances they draft a player who will instantly be a major net positive are slim to none. Their chances in getting a star-caliber player with the TPE are higher, but at what cost?

For example, say they trade the No. 2 pick and the TPE for Atlanta Hawks center John Collins. He is in the final year of his rookie contract and making only $4.1 million. For the 2020-21 season, this would be a financially prudent move. 

Assuming the Collins partnership goes well, he could want a contract in the neighborhood of four years and $130 million in 2021 free agency. Imagine the luxury-tax penalties if the Warriors had that contract on the books when they are already paying Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Wiggins a combined $139.4 million for the 2021-22 season. 

This isn't to say the Warriors shouldn't use the TPE. But they have to be thinking about how to make their payroll more manageable. The easiest way to do that is to trade Wiggins ($29.5 million salary in ‘20-21) and the No. 2 pick ($7.3 million) for a star. And then they can choose whether to use the mid-level exception and a percentage of the TPE to add depth.   

Trade Ideas the Warriors Should Turn Down for Wiggins and Pick(s)

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Warriors won’t trade Wiggins and the No. 2 pick for just any player loosely labeled as a star. They need to get the right star. 

Unless they are trading for an elite center—e.g., a Joel Embiid-caliber big man—they must get back a player who can play high-quality perimeter defense. One of the reasons they are in this Wiggins predicament is they decided a Curry-D’Angelo Russell backcourt wouldn’t work defensively. 

With this in mind, let’s dispute a few ideas that have gotten some traction on social media:

Wiggins (and pick) for Blake Griffin (and pick): Griffin has a concerning injury history and would leave the Warriors with major defensive issues at wing and center.

Wiggins or Draymond Green for Kevin Love: The concerns with Love are almost exactly the same as the concerns with Griffin.

Wiggins (and pick) for LaMarcus Aldridge (and pick): The Warriors should have no interest in trading Wiggins or a draft pick for a 35-year-old who won’t help their defense.   

Trade Idea the Warriors Should Consider for Wiggins and Pick(s)

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid. Bradley Beal. And of course Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Warriors have been linked to all of these names, but barring a surprising twist, none will be traded in the next few days. 

There is a good argument to be made that the Warriors should wait until this season's trade deadline or next offseason for one of these players to demand a trade instead of dealing Wiggins and the No. 2 pick now. 

If the Warriors decide to make a big splash in the next few days, they should at least consider Jrue Holiday.

Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported that several teams are pursuing Holiday. It's easy to see why. 

He's a clear positive on both offense and defense. And though he's only 6'3", he doesn't shy away from guarding much bigger wings. 

At the least, the Warriors would have to trade the No. 2 pick and Wiggins. Which begs the question: Should they give up the pick for a 30-year-old who is under team control for just one more season?

Holiday might not be the perfect fourth star because of his lack of size, but "perfect" may never be available. One can support this move as long as Holiday immediately agrees to an extension. 

But the Pelicans are unlikely to make this trade. They already have lots of young talent, so they may not be enamored with draft picks. Wiggins isn't a great fit next to Brandon Ingram, and the Wiggins contract would hurt New Orleans' long-term flexibility. Lastly, Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News reported Monday that the Pelicans don't want to trade him to a Western Conference team.   

Editor's Note: Holiday was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday night, per Charania.

Trade Down/Trade Pick with TPE

Mary Altaffer/Associated Press

The Warriors have a week to use their $17.2 million traded player exception before it expires. They can acquire any player who makes up to $17.2 million in 2020-21 with it, but it is unusable for a player who makes more (see Hoops Rumors’ explanation on acquiring a bridge player if you want to know how they’d acquire someone with a salary like Aaron Gordon’s or Myles Turner’s).   

Plenty of teams could be looking to trim payroll, so the Warriors could absorb a contract without having to give up hardly anything in return. For example, the San Antonio Spurs might be willing to trade 34-year-old Rudy Gay ($14.5 million salary) for a second-round pick to free up some cap space. 

But if the Warriors want more of a difference-maker with the TPE, they’ll likely need to trade a first-round pick. Here are a few trade proposals the Warriors should strongly consider if offered:

No. 2 pick for Mitchell Robinson and No. 8 pick: If the New York Knicks covet LaMelo Ball or someone else who is available with the second pick, the Warriors should demand to get Robinson in return. The 22-year-old is making just $3.5 million combined over the next two seasons and would be the rim protector the Warriors are lacking.  

2021 first-round pick for Will Barton: The Denver Nuggets made the Western Conference Finals without Will Barton (knee soreness). Jerami Grant (player option) took a starting role in the playoffs, and the Nuggets will likely have to give him a big raise to keep him. Barton makes $13.7 million in 2020-21 and has a player option at $14.7 million the following year. 

And here’s one the Warriors should decline:

No. 2 pick for Tomas Satoransky and No. 4 pick: Satoransky would help the Warriors, and he’s making a reasonable $10 million each of the next two seasons. But he’s not worth the cost of Golden State potentially having to choose its third- or fourth-highest-rated prospect with the fourth pick instead of keeping the second pick. Even if the Warriors value the top four players similarly, they shouldn’t trade down unless they are getting more from the Chicago Bulls.   

Keep the No. 2 Pick

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

The most likely scenario is that the Warriors keep the second pick. Who they select—and why they select who they select—is up in the air.  

Some might say it's simple: Take the player who you project to have the most long-term impact, regardless of position. 

But what if that player doesn't fit well with Curry, Thompson and Green? What if that player could have little to no impact in 2020-21 while other prospects could be quality rotation players almost immediately?

Most fans and analysts say James Wiseman should and will be the pick. He has the frame to effectively guard Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic down the road. He's the "best player who fits a positional need" pick. 

LaMelo Ball is most commonly viewed as the best player in the class. For example, he's No. 1 on the big boards of Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman and The Athletic's Sam Vecenie. He'd have to adjust his ball-dominant style with the Warriors, and his perimeter shooting needs work. But for many, he qualifies as “the best player, regardless of position” pick. 

Anthony Edwards is considered the best wing in the class, and wings are more valued than ever. The Warriors' biggest need is a wing who can back up Thompson and Wiggins. He's the "best player who fits the team's biggest need" pick. 

Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton, Obi Toppin, Devin Vassell, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaac Okoro all could be the "player who can make the biggest immediate impact" pick. If the Warriors don't get a good trade-down offer and aren't convinced by the top three prospects, could they reach for someone from this second tier?

What I expect and would advise is that the Warriors take one of the perceived top three prospects. There will be growing pains, but if their pick shows serious potential, he could be the centerpiece in a trade for a fourth star in 2021. Haliburton and Vassell, for example, are unlikely to ever be that. 

And if Wiseman, Ball or Edwards is instantly impactful as a Warrior, Golden State would already have its fourth star.