NBA Power Rankings, Moneyball Edition: Teams That Played Above Payroll in 2018
Are you getting what you paid for?
Every NBA team is ultimately subjected to the same financial restraints. They can exceed the salary cap—set at a record $99,093,000 in 2017-18—but face punitive payments if they go over the luxury-tax threshold. And even if they do, they're restricted by the rules of the league's collective bargaining agreement and can't hand any individual more than a max contract.
But some organizations are far better at maximizing their monetary expenditures than others. And it's those squads that will populate the top of these rankings, which look at how each of the Association's 30 squads fared relative to their payroll (note: payroll includes dead money, whether owed to bought-out players or contributors waived years ago via the stretch provision).
To determine the order in entirely objective fashion, I built a best-fit linear regression between payroll and actual wins during the 2017-18 campaign. That allows us to determine expected wins based on each team's payroll, and the featured numbers you'll see in this analysis are simply the differences between expected and actual victories.
If your score is distinctly positive, you are indeed getting what you paid for...and then some.
Bottom 10
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30. Memphis Grizzlies: minus-18.02
Payroll: $110,273,309 (No. 17)
Wins: 22 (No. 29)
Expected Wins: 40.02
This shouldn't be even remotely surprising. Not when the Memphis Grizzlies' three highest-paid players in 2017-18 were Mike Conley ($28,530,608; played in just 12 games before heel issues shut him down), Chandler Parsons ($23,112,004; self-explanatory) and Marc Gasol ($22,642,350; finally showing cracks and suffered severe slippage on both ends of the court).
Memphis can expect a bounce-back season in 2018-19 when its key contributors are healthy, but this is an expensive payroll for a team that, at its best, is still only a fringe playoff contender in the Western Conference.
29. Atlanta Hawks: minus-10.53
Payroll: $100,414,016 (No. 23)
Wins: 24 (No. 27)
Expected Wins: 34.53
As opposed to the Grizzlies, the Atlanta Hawks were never expected to be even remotely competitive in 2017-18. And they weren't, riding the coattails of marginal starters such as Dennis Schroder ($15,500,000) and Kent Bazemore ($16,910,113) to the bottom of the Eastern Conference and earning strong lottery odds for the 2018 NBA draft.
Atlanta doesn't have any particularly egregious salaries, but the numbers still add up to the No. 23 payroll in the Association. Dead money after buyouts for Jamal Crawford ($10,942,762), Marco Belinelli ($6,306,060) and Ersan Ilyasova ($6,000,000) also don't help. If those numbers were simply wiped from the ledger, the expected wins would plunge to 21.58 and actually leave the youthful, talent-deprived Hawks as slight overachievers.
28. Phoenix Suns: minus-10.41
Payroll: $94,818,333 (No. 27)
Wins: 21 (No. 30)
Expected Wins: 31.41
Though the contributions of youngsters such as Devin Booker ($2,319,360) and second-half Josh Jackson ($5,090,040) helped keep the Phoenix Suns somewhat respectable, their cap sheet is a glaring eyesore. Not only did they buy out Greg Monroe ($17,884,176) after acquiring him from the Milwaukee Bucks, but their four highest-enduring salaries were all troublesome.
Phoenix owed the most money to Brandon Knight ($13,618,750), whose torn ACL during the offseason prevented him from logging even a single minute for the desert-based organization. Next up was Tyson Chandler ($13,000,000), who fell out of the rotation by the end of the year. Jared Dudley ($10,000,000) and Alan Williams ($6,000,000) were limited and/or injured, with the former playing 14.3 minutes per game over the course of 48 appearances while the latter logged an even 14 minutes per game in five showings and didn't debut until a March 26 loss against the Boston Celtics.
27. New York Knicks: minus-9.68
Payroll: $107,855,405 (No. 19)
Wins: 29 (No. 22)
Expected Wins: 38.68
Maybe this would've been different if Kristaps Porzingis ($4,503,600) had remained healthy throughout the season. The New York Knicks were a far more respectable 23-32 when he went down with a torn ACL in a Feb. 6 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, and they'd even earned a 0.1 net rating while he was on the floor.
Alas, tanking followed the devastating injury to the face of the franchise. And Enes Kanter ($20,566,802), Joakim Noah ($17,765,000) and Tim Hardaway Jr. ($16,500,000) leading the squad in salary while showcasing significant limitations, leaving the team and making only 57 mediocre appearances, respectively, is not a recipe for success.
26. Orlando Magic: minus-8.34
Payroll: $98,284,645 (No. 24)
Wins: 25 (No. 26)
Expected Wins: 33.34
Remember when the Orlando Magic started the season in red-hot fashion and looked to be making strides toward playoff contention in the NBA's weaker half? That was quickly followed by prolonged periods of misery as the Magic fell down the standings and wound up with the league's fifth-worst record.
Of course, that shouldn't be particularly shocking. Orlando doesn't have any max players on the roster, and its only four eight-figure expenditures come courtesy of Terrence Ross ($10,500,000), Nikola Vucevic ($12,250,000), Bismack Biyombo ($17,000,000) and Evan Fournier ($17,000,000). Maybe better health from the first two could've moved the Magic a bit higher in these rankings, but there are plenty of reasons former head coach Frank Vogel spent much of 2017-18 looking like what he watched on the court was upsetting his stomach.
25. Charlotte Hornets: minus-7.9
Payroll: $117,228,164 (No. 13)
Wins: 36 (No. 20)
Expected Wins: 43.9
Is paying $23,500,000 to Dwight Howard and $22,434,783 to Nicolas Batum ideal for the Charlotte Hornets? Definitely not, especially when doing so squanders another year of bargain-bin expenditures for All-Star point guard Kemba Walker ($12,000,000).
But the Hornets could also help their cause by not functioning as such chronic underachievers. Based not on payroll but Pythagorean Wins, which look solely at margin of victory and strength of schedule, only the Dallas Mavericks boasted a larger discrepancy between actual and expected victories. Their quality of play was indicative of a 42-40 squad, leaving them just shy of the 43.9 wins indicated by their payroll. And that difference, rather than the one between 43.9 and their actual 36-46 record, would've bumped them up to No. 15 in this countdown.
24. Miami Heat: minus-7.69
Payroll: $131,222,624 (No. 4)
Wins: 44 (No. 15)
Expected Wins: 51.69
Because of a technicality, the Miami Heat are being severely disadvantaged here. Chris Bosh, who was confirmed to have suffered a career-ending illness via a medical review conducted by both the NBA and the players' union, is still on the team's payroll, earning $25,289,390 for the 2017-18 season. Though he no longer counts against the salary cap, he does technically make money paid by the Heat and can't be written off in this analysis.
If we did strike his salary from the equation, Miami's expected wins would drop to 37.6 and make the Heat overachievers. Even though they're doling out noteworthy salaries to plenty of good-but-not-great contributors scattered throughout the roster, they'd jump up to No. 8 in this analysis—a credit to the brilliant work of head coach Erik Spoelstra.
Essentially, take this ignominious placement with a heaping helping of salt.
23. Detroit Pistons: minus-6.49
Payroll: $120,086,105 (No. 7)
Wins: 39 (No. 19)
Expected Wins: 45.49
Fun fact (well, not so fun if you're a Detroit Pistons fan): This organization still owes Josh Smith $5,400,000 annually until the conclusion of the 2019-20 season. That doesn't help a team already on the hook for Blake Griffin ($29,512,900), Andre Drummond ($23,775,506), Reggie Jackson ($16,000,000) and Jon Leuer ($10,497,319).
Going forward, the Pistons are in a bit of a conundrum. Though their roster is solid enough to compete for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (and should only get better as the Griffin-Drummond frontcourt tandem gains more experience and chemistry), the cap sheet looks awful. It leaves Detroit nearly devoid of ways to make substantial strides without landing draft-day gems and squeezing every ounce of upside from the incumbents.
22. Oklahoma City Thunder: minus-5.4
Payroll: $134,294,056 (No. 3)
Wins: 48 (No. 8)
Expected Wins: 53.4
Perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder shouldn't have traded for Carmelo Anthony when he was still owed $26,243,760 for 2017-18 (and another $27,928,140 in 2018-19 if he doesn't use his early termination option). After leaving the New York Knicks, the small forward continued his quick decline by refusing to improve on the defensive end and struggling to embrace a role that needed him serving as a spot-up specialist.
When Anthony sat on the pine while Russell Westbrook ($28,530,608), Steven Adams ($22,471,910) and Paul George ($19,508,958) operated as a bona fide Big Three, the Thunder posted a 15.3 net rating over the course of 213 minutes. But when each member of the expensive quartet graced the hardwood, they could only outscore the opposition by a more restrained 5.4 points per 100 possessions.
21. Cleveland Cavaliers: minus-5.11
Payroll: $137,362,708 (No. 2)
Wins: 50 (No. 6)
Expected Wins: 55.11
After all the roster turnover and tumult throughout the regular season, the Cleveland Cavaliers wound up with six players making eight-figure salaries: LeBron James ($33,285,709), Kevin Love ($22,642,350), George Hill ($20,000,000), Tristan Thompson ($16,400,000), J.R. Smith ($13,760,000) and Jordan Clarkson ($11,562,500). Aside from the first one, that's a troubling list of names, filled with men who suffered significant injuries, were relegated to smaller roles or just flat-out struggled their way through the 2017-18 campaign.
The Cavaliers' payroll lagged behind only that of their long-time NBA Finals foes, which isn't a positive for a team that looked inconsistent on offense and incompetent on defense throughout the first 82 games. Fifty wins is nothing to sniff at (and the playoffs are, thus far, going swimmingly), but that made for a disappointing season—relative to both preseason expectations and payroll predictions.
Nos. 20-16
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20. Sacramento Kings: minus-4.86
Payroll: $95,627,528 (No. 26)
Wins: 27 (No. 24)
Expected Wins: 31.86
"The [Sacramento] Kings brought in [George] Hill, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter during the offseason and still have Garrett Temple on the roster. These are respected vets who can play," Tony Jones reported for the Salt Lake Tribune back in December. "These are vets brought in to help a young team, and according to sources, were brought in with the promise of a team aiming to be playoff competitive."
They were not in the playoff race. In fact, only five of the Association's 30 squads finished with inferior records, which isn't ideal for anyone—even a team with the No. 26 payroll and no true albatross salaries on the books.
Fortunately for the Kings, the bad news stops there. Zach Randolph ($12,307,692) and Iman Shumpert ($10,337,079) were the only players cresting the $10,000,000 threshold, and they have plenty of youthful contributors operating on reasonable deals who could help improve the franchise's fortune in the future.
19. Washington Wizards: minus-4.77
Payroll: $124,179,842 (No. 5)
Wins: 43 (No. 17)
Expected Wins: 47.77
Perhaps this would've been different had John Wall ($18,063,850) remained healthy throughout the season rather than falling out of the lineup and leaving Tomas Satoransky ($3,000,000) to pick up the slack. It definitely would've been different if the Washington Wizards hadn't decided to pay $16,661,641 for Ian Mahinmi and $12,782,609 for Marcin Gortat.
But either way, the Wizards lay claim to one of the NBA's most expensive trios. Wall, Bradley Beal ($23,775,506) and Otto Porter Jr. ($24,773,250) are the team's highest-paid players, as well as the leading contributors toward success. And though the point guard couldn't stay healthy for the entirety of the campaign, they actually lived up to their end of the bargain; Washington earned an 8.6 net rating with this troika on the floor, per PBPStats.com.
Now, the front office needs to figure out how it can address the question that has plagued this organization for years: How can it build a more competent bench with so much money wrapped up in three players and a pair of limited centers?
18. Brooklyn Nets: minus-4.09
Payroll: $96,039,772 (No. 25)
Wins: 28 (No. 23)
Expected Wins: 32.09
Bereft of their first-round draft pick as payment for the sins of the previous brain trust, the Brooklyn Nets had nothing to gain from tanking in 2017-18. But they also didn't have the talent necessary to make a legitimate run at a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference, which left them in the NBA's version of purgatory.
Finding Spencer Dinwiddie ($1,524,305) was a pleasant surprise, but the rest of this season went about as expected. The Nets were competitive, though not competitive enough to win many games. They also didn't achieve as many victories as their payroll might indicate, which also makes plenty of sense.
General manager Sean Marks has been collecting castoffs and overpaid talents for a while now, taking advantage of his excess cap space to gain access to players he otherwise couldn't lure to the Nets roster—and picking up second-round picks in the process. Allen Crabbe ($19,332,500), Timofey Mozgov ($15,280,000) and DeMarre Carroll ($14,800,000) aren't helping Brooklyn in this analysis, but they're still indications this organization is—finally—on the right track.
17. Los Angeles Clippers: minus-2.83
Payroll: $118,907,163 (No. 11)
Wins: 42 (No. 18)
Expected Wins: 44.83
Chris Paul is gone. Blake Griffin was traded to the Detroit Pistons midway through the season. DeAndre Jordan could opt out of his pact with the Los Angeles Clippers and pursue a new landing spot during the hottest months of the NBA calendar. These Clippers no longer resemble the iterations that functioned as playoff mainstays, but they're still serving as an expensive collection of contributors.
Jordan was the highest-paid player on the roster, checking in at $22,642,350 during a season that saw him begin to decline slightly without Paul throwing him lobs. Next up was Danilo Gallinari ($20,559,599), who was either injured or finding new ways to underachieve throughout the year. Tobias Harris ($16,000,000) and Austin Rivers ($11,825,000) joined them in the eight-figure club, but neither could propel the Clippers into the postseason.
If Jordan seeks out a fresh start this offseason, the Clippers should be on pace to exceed their payroll expectations in 2018-19, especially after inking Lou Williams to a reasonable contract that will pay him $8,000,000 next year. But if the big man stays, expect more of the same in the future.
16. Dallas Mavericks: minus-2.45
Payroll: $85,904,490 (No. 30)
Wins: 24 (No. 27)
Expected Wins: 26.45
Much like the Charlotte Hornets, the Dallas Mavericks can blame underperformance for their bottom-half finish in this countdown. It was a testament to the genius of head coach Rick Carlisle that he was able to milk even 24 wins out of a roster featuring Harrison Barnes ($23,112,004), Wesley Matthews ($17,884,176) and Dwight Powell ($9,003,125) as the highest-paid players, but this squad could've earned an even better record.
According to Pythagorean Wins, the 24-58 Mavericks actually performed like a 33-49 outfit—a nine-game gap that served as the league's largest differential.
Win 33 games with the league's lowest payroll, and you're looking at an impressive finish here. In fact, Dallas, had it played up to those figures, would've checked in with the No. 8 score in our countdown.
Nos. 15-11
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15. Los Angeles Lakers: minus-2.28
Payroll: $105,355,450 (No. 21)
Wins: 35 (No. 21)
Expected Wins: 37.28
Though the Los Angeles Lakers still have a negative score, they should be pleased with their placement. Their payroll, after all, is boosted substantially by moving to acquire Brook Lopez's expiring contract ($22,642,350), handing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a one-year balloon deal ($17,745,894) and continuing to pay Luol Deng an exorbitant salary ($17,190,000).
Still, they made significant strides in 2017-18, becoming a dangerous team that could hang with most anyone aside from the league's truest contenders during the second half of the season. Brandon Ingram ($5,519,400), Lonzo Ball ($6,286,560), Julius Randle ($4,149,242) and Kyle Kuzma ($1,423,560) make for a fantastic core brimming over with youth, and only Randle is in need of a new deal going forward.
The Lakers' payroll should skyrocket in 2018-19 as they make the most of their cap space by pursuing some max-contract candidates (here's looking at you, Paul George), but their win tally should also rise accordingly. They should remain in the top half for a while.
14. Milwaukee Bucks: minus-1.89
Payroll: $120,805,328 (No. 6)
Wins: 44 (No. 15)
Expected Wins: 45.89
The Milwaukee Bucks might have wound up with the league's sixth-highest payroll, but they weren't always tracking toward such lofty expenditures with the roster featured in a first-round playoff defeat.
Mirza Teletovic ($10,500,000) was waived after making just 10 appearances when doctors discovered pulmonary embolisms in both of his lungs. Spencer Hawes ($6,021,175) joined his fellow frontcourt member on waivers. Meanwhile, Eric Bledsoe ($14,500,000) was brought aboard via trade midway through the season, and it took him a while to build up chemistry with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($22,471,910) and Khris Middleton ($14,100,000).
Per PBPStats.com, that trio still earned a 6.1 net rating in 1,430 minutes together. Had it been present for the entire campaign rather than just half the year, perhaps the Bucks could've exceeded 44 wins and pushed above their payroll expectations.
13. Chicago Bulls: minus-1.41
Payroll: $89,425,042 (No. 29)
Wins: 27 (No. 24)
Expected Wins: 28.41
In reality, the Chicago Bulls eked those 27 wins out of even less money than that payroll figure you can see above. After all, that figures in $15,550,000 for a Dwyane Wade buyout and features large payouts to a trio of big men who barely played.
Robin Lopez ($13,788,500) finished the season as the high earner, suiting up in only 64 games and playing 26.4 minutes per contest. Next up were Omer Asik ($10,595,505) and Cristiano Felicio ($7,843,500), who combined to make 59 appearances and each played fewer than 18 minutes per game. Remove those three from the equation, and not a single player in the Windy City earned even $5,000,000.
This is a young core. It's a cheap roster. And that's good news for Chicago during its ongoing rebuild.
12. New Orleans Pelicans: 2.67
Payroll: $119,799,730 (No. 8)
Wins: 48 (No. 8)
Expected Wins: 45.33
The first of a dozen teams whose actual win totals exceeded the ones indicated by their payrolls, the New Orleans Pelicans have reason to believe they could've fared even better—and not just because of their dominant first-round performance against the Portland Trail Blazers.
What if DeMarcus Cousins ($18,063,850) had stayed healthy the entire season and avoided a ruptured Achilles midway through the year? What if they'd had access to Nikola Mirotic ($12,500,000) from start to finish? What if Jrue Holiday ($25,686,667) had performed like he did against Rip City throughout the regular season instead of struggling to find his three-point stroke?
This might've been an expensive roster, but it lived up to the hype due to the contributions of its leading figures. Yes, Anthony Davis ($23,775,506) is chief among them.
11. Golden State Warriors: 2.82
Payroll: $137,494,845 (No. 1)
Wins: 58 (No. 3)
Expected Wins: 55.18
No one made more money in 2017-18 than Stephen Curry, whose $34,682,550 salary was still more than justified. Kevin Durant earned an even $25,000,000, which left him behind only 15 other players. Factor in Klay Thompson ($17,826,150), Draymond Green ($16,400,000) and Andre Iguodala ($14,814,815), and you can quickly see how this payroll rises into astronomical territory.
Except the Golden State Warriors were still better than their finances might indicate.
That's what happens when you're dealing with a max salary mandated by the NBA's collective bargaining agreement and no similar limitations on player quality. Curry is a bargain at any price. Ditto for Durant, while you could make legitimate arguments the other two members of the Big Four are among the NBA's most underpaid players.
They're just that good, capable of racking up 58 wins even during a somnambulatory regular season.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: 2.97
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Payroll: $117,468,554 (No. 12)
Wins: 47 (No. 12)
Expected Wins: 44.03
Fortunately for the Minnesota Timberwolves, they got to pay Andrew Wiggins a meager $7,574,322 for his services in 2017-18. His monstrous extension doesn't kick in until next season, at which point they'll be handing him $25,250,000 and crossing their fingers for across-the-board improvement that doesn't allow him to sit at No. 318 in ESPN.com's real plus/minus for the second consecutive campaign.
Had that price increase added to their payroll this season, they'd be underachieving by 6.88 wins and dropping to No. 23 in our countdown. Just keep that in mind as you think about the future, since stagnation from this roster won't be enough to justify the continued payouts. In fact, the current placement is more stemming from the work of a young stud like Karl-Anthony Towns ($6,216,840) and the acquisition of a bargain in Jimmy Butler ($19,301,070) than a masterclass in finances.
Nikola Pekovic has medically retired, so his $11,600,000 doesn't count against the salary cap. It does, however, count on the payroll. No such caveats are applicable when trying to justify the expenditures for Gorgui Dieng ($14,112,360) and Cole Aldrich ($7,300,000).
The Wiggins extension could change this, but the 'Wolves don't have any glaring albatrosses on the books. They just have a number of head-scratchers, all of which—for now—are canceled out by a top-20 player in Towns who's dominating while still on his rookie deal.
9. San Antonio Spurs: 3.7
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Payroll: $116,153,554 (No. 15)
Wins: 47 (No. 12)
Expected Wins: 43.3
The San Antonio Spurs had no business winning 47 games with this payroll.
According to NBA Math's total points added, LaMarcus Aldridge ($21,461,010), Kyle Anderson ($2,151,704), Pau Gasol ($16,000,000), Dejounte Murray ($1,312,611) and Danny Green ($10,000,000) served as the leading presences on the roster, while Kawhi Leonard ($18,868,625) essentially acted as dead money. The defensive ace made only nine appearances while dealing with a mysterious injury to his quadriceps.
So let's dive down that rabbit hole.
Leonard made more money than any Spur not named Aldridge in 2017-18, and he only added 0.9 win shares to the cause—the No. 13 mark on the San Antonio roster. If we subtract both his monetary requirements and on-court contributions from the equation, the Spurs would exceed their expected win tally by 13.31 victories.
Finishing ninth is already a fantastic spot for the NBA's model organization, indicative of yet another season filled with coaching brilliance from Gregg Popovich. But that new score with Leonard factored out would trail only the top four teams in this analysis.
The Spurs, as always, just aren't fair.
8. Portland Trail Blazers: 4.06
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Payroll: $119,108,924 (No. 9)
Wins: 49 (No. 7)
Expected Wins: 44.94
The Portland Trail Blazers probably wish they owed Evan Turner ($17,131,148) less money. They would definitely prefer to be handing Meyers Leonard ($9,904,495) a smaller salary. But beyond those two, where are the mistakes?
They haven't needed to buy out anyone of significance. They got big-time contributions from bargains such as Jusuf Nurkic ($2,947,305), Shabazz Napier ($2,361,360) and Al-Farouq Aminu ($7,319,035). Aside from Turner, their only eight-figure salaries belong to Damian Lillard ($26,153,057), CJ McCollum ($23,962,573) and Maurice Harkless ($10,162,922).
Everything checks out, with one small exception.
The Blazers are doing what's expected with their payroll. They're just not exceeding those expectations by much, since Lillard is the only true All-Star on the roster and is paid accordingly. Without a breakout from Nurkic or some other youngster on the Rip City roster, it's tough for them to hurtle past the 50-win threshold and leave the projected tally in the dust.
Nothing is wrong with that, of course. But tempering the expectations heading into 2018-19 is a smart course of action, especially since Wade Baldwin IV ($222,476), Pat Connaughton ($1,471,382), Napier, Nurkic and Ed Davis ($6,352,531) are all due to hit the open market this summer.
7. Denver Nuggets: 7.31
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Payroll: $107,889,099 (No. 18)
Wins: 46 (No. 14)
Expected Wins: 38.69
After an initial glance at the Denver Nuggets' cap sheet, this placement might not make sense.
Paul Millsap ($31,269,231) more than doubled any other individual's earnings in the Mile High City, but the former All-Star suited up just 38 times during his first season with the Nuggets. Next up is Mason Plumlee ($14,041,096), who comes off the Denver bench and has trouble thriving in certain lineup combinations. Kenneth Faried ($12,921,348) was the third-highest-paid player but fell out of the rotation entirely, and Wilson Chandler ($12,016,854), who struggled with his shot and had one of his worst seasons in a while, rounded out the top four.
How in the world could that quartet feature on a squad that trails only six other organizations in this countdown?
In two words: Nikola Jokic.
The superstar center finished behind only seven players in win shares this season. He ranked No. 6 in ESPN.com's RPM, No. 8 in RPM Wins and No. 5 in NBA Math's TPA. Just a dozen qualified contributors boasted a higher player efficiency rating. In player score, which I've used in plenty of previous articles as an all-encompassing metric, he lags behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns, Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, James Harden and no one else.
He did all this while making just $1,471,382, which gave him the No. 379 salary in the Association.
Enough said.
6. Utah Jazz: 9.46
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Payroll: $107,613,332 (No. 20)
Wins: 48 (No. 8)
Expected Wins: 38.54
Just like Nikola Jokic aided the Denver Nuggets by thriving on his rookie-scale deal, Donovan Mitchell ($2,621,280) boosted the Utah Jazz's fortunes by capably serving as a go-to scorer during his inaugural NBA campaign. As a first-round addition with the accompanying salary, he didn't provide quite as much of a lift, but his ability to average 20.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists remains a big deal.
Though Utah spent marginally less money than the Nuggets, it also won two additional games. And that's largely because it didn't feature any financial liabilities like its Western Conference counterpart—Rudy Gobert ($21,974,719) was the only player to make more than $15 million—and had a couple other bargains on the roster.
Joe Ingles, fresh off signing a four-year, $52 million deal, serves as the primary example.
Though the Australian forward made $14,136,364 in the first year of that de-escalating contract, he continued to get better. Serving as one of the league's deadliest marksmen, Ingles also thrived as an initiator in the pick-and-roll and played fantastic defense against a number of positions. Based on a regression between salary and my player score metric, he even joined Mitchell as one of the league's 20 most underpaid players.
But the best news of all for the young Jazz? With Derrick Favors ($12,000,000), Dante Exum ($4,992,385) and Raul Neto ($1,471,382) serving as the team's most notable upcoming free agents and no players set to undergo ginormous salary increases, Utah might only keep moving up these standings.
5. Boston Celtics: 12.3
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Payroll: $115,084,121 (No. 16)
Wins: 55 (No. 4)
Expected Wins: 42.7
How do you win 55 games with a payroll that sits in the bottom half?
Milk as much talent as possible from Kyrie Irving ($18,868,625) and Al Horford ($27,734,405) while surrounding them with a supporting cast that complements their skills. Strike gold with first-round pick Jayson Tatum ($5,645,400). Get breakout campaigns from Jaylen Brown ($4,956,480) and Terry Rozier ($1,988,520). Have head coach Brad Stevens pacing the sidelines, ready to turn anyone from the Boston Celtics into a viable contributor.
Beantown boasted one of the league's youngest rosters. A payroll trailed that of 15 other teams. But only three squads were more successful in the win column, which is astounding.
And now we have to talk about Gordon Hayward.
When the marquee offseason addition suffered a devastating injury just minutes into his Celtics debut, his salary wasn't wiped from the ledgers. The NBA may have granted the team a disabled player exception worth $8,400,000 (used to fit Greg Monroe's $5,000,000 salary), but Boston still had Hayward's $29,727,900 deal factoring into the payroll.
Subtract that, and you're looking at even more overachievement. The expected wins would plummet to 26.1, leaving the Celtics outdoing that mark by a whopping 28.9 victories.
Spoiler alert: Our No. 1 finisher earned a score of 20.08.
4. Toronto Raptors: 15.47
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Payroll: $116,574,876 (No. 14)
Wins: 59 (No. 2)
Expected Wins: 43.53
Yes, Kyle Lowry ($28,703,704) and DeMar DeRozan ($27,739,975) are legitimate All-Stars and are paid as such. Serge Ibaka ($20,061,729) and Jonas Valanciunas ($15,460,675) are the only other members of the Toronto Raptors earning eight figures, and it's hard to argue against either big man's importance.
But what really made the Raptors hum, allowing them to earn the NBA's second-best record without paying an exorbitant sum, was the bench unit. They featured a quintet comprised solely of second-stringers that played the 25th-most minutes of any five-man lineup in the NBA during the regular season, and it earned a staggering 17.1 net rating with unrelenting dominance on both ends of the floor.
No member of that bunch earned $8 million. Only one claimed $3 million:
- Point guard: Fred VanVleet ($1,312,611)
- Shooting guard: Delon Wright ($1,645,200)
- Small forward: CJ Miles ($7,936,509)
- Power forward: Pascal Siakam ($1,312,611)
- Center: Jakob Poeltl ($2,825,640)
Together that quintet commanded $15,032,571—most comparable to the 2017-18 individual salaries of Thaddeus Young ($14,796,348), DeMarre Carroll ($14,800,000), Andre Iguodala ($14,814,815), Timofey Mozgov ($15,280,000), Tony Parker ($15,453,126) and Valanciunas. Not too shabby for one of the NBA's most effective units.
Unfortunately, that'll change, even if the Raptors don't blow up their core following another sweep at the hands of LeBron James. VanVleet is set to enter free agency, and his salary should rise quite a bit as someone, whether Toronto or another organization, rewards him for his surge to prominence.
3. Indiana Pacers: 16.8
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Payroll: $94,429,791 (No. 28)
Wins: 48 (No. 8)
Expected Wins: 31.2
Not to pick on CBSSports.com's James Herbert, who was one of many giving the Indiana Pacers poor marks for their offseason acquisition of Victor Oladipo, but here's an excerpt of what he wrote in the aftermath of the infamous Paul George trade, in which he gave the Pacers a D-minus for their efforts:
"Oladipo, of course, can improve. He is 25 years old, however, and his career-high 36.1 percent mark from 3-point range last season came along with a strange regression as a playmaker. Maybe he'll help sell tickets because he went to school at Indiana, but his upside is mitigated by the fact that he's making $21 million per season for the next four years. Indiana needs him to develop..."
Less than a year later, Indiana's highest-earning player is more bargain than overpaid financial liability. Oladipo blossomed into a legitimate star, thriving on both ends of the floor as an unquestioned offensive leader and defensive ace on the perimeter.
And with each of the next three top earners—Thaddeus Young ($14,796,348), Bojan Bogdanovic ($10,500,000), Darren Collison ($10,000,000)—holding their own as rotation stalwarts, the top of the cap sheet wound up far better than expected. Factor in bargain-bin production from Myles Turner ($2,569,920) and Domantas Sabonis ($2,550,000), and you're looking at a formidable, cheap core.
The Pacers were supposed to wind up competing for top odds in the 2018 NBA draft, and their minuscule payroll seemed to validate that belief.
So much for that.
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 17.26
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Payroll: $100,794,278 (No. 22)
Wins: 52 (No. 5)
Expected Wins: 34.74
This one is easy to explain, to the point we can lead off with the negatives.
The Philadelphia 76ers must love the production they got from JJ Redick throughout his first season in the City of Brother Love, but they had to acquire him on a one-year balloon deal worth $23,000,000. Amir Johnson ($11,000,000) and Jerryd Bayless ($9,000,000) weren't worth a combined $20,000,000. Markelle Fultz's shoulder injury and subsequent battle to get back on the floor made him overpaid at $7,026,240. Trevor Booker was waived in February, but he's still on the payroll for $9,125,000.
That's a lot. It just pales in comparison to the positives.
Ben Simmons ($6,168,840) was playing on his rookie-scale contract and starting to assert himself as (arguably) one of the NBA's 25 best players. Ditto for Joel Embiid ($6,100,266), except you can safely remove the "arguably." Dario Saric ($2,422,560) didn't quite reach that level, but he still improved across the board and became a valuable, versatile contributor.
Those three alone made Philadelphia a bona fide contender in the Eastern Conference. Per PBPStats.com, the 76ers trounced their adversaries by an eye-popping 16.2 points per 100 possessions when each member of the triumvirate was logging minutes, and they combined to earn a meager $14,691,666.
Having a genuine stud on a rookie contract makes a big difference. Having three lets you shatter the payroll expectations, even while overpaying other members of the roster.
1. Houston Rockets: 20.08
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Payroll: $119,070,161 (No. 10)
Wins: 65 (No. 1)
Expected Wins: 44.92
The Houston Rockets roster isn't cheap. Even with Clint Capela ($2,334,520) on board for a bargain, it can't be when they're shelling out at least $19 million to three players: James Harden ($28,299,399), Chris Paul ($24,599,495) and Ryan Anderson ($19,578,455).
Only two of those three justified the expenditures, but that's almost irrelevant. When you go 65-17, becoming one of just 21 teams in NBA history to hit the 65-win benchmark while leaving the rest of the 2017-18 field in your dust, little else matters. In fact, the Rockets could've paid quite a bit more and still sat above expectations.
Just for fun, let's mess with Zhou Qi's salary. The rookie center made $815,615 during his first season in the States, but how much could he have earned without sinking the Rockets into the red?
Well, a $155,116,696 salary (well into the luxury tax) yields an expected win tally of 65. So that means we can essentially pay Qi a massive $36,862,151. Sorry, Stephen Curry. You're no longer going to be the league's highest-paid player anymore.
Of course, Houston isn't paying Qi more than the max. Far from it. And that, along with all the other reasonable expenditures on this cohesive contender, make it, rather easily, the top finisher in the payroll power rankings.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats and salary information from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
