Final Win-Loss Predictions for Chicago Bears' 2017 Schedule
Grounded optimism surrounds the Chicago Bears heading into the 2017 NFL regular season.
Fans know general manager Ryan Pace has tabbed this as something of a transitional year for the Bears simply based on the majority of the front-term deals doled out in free agency.
Transitional doesn't mean more of the same, though.
Chicago isn't the same three-win team from a year ago, not after being more active than most of the league in free agency and using all avenues—including the draft—to aggressively attack problem areas like defensive back and quarterback.
With the roster cemented, let's revisit full-season predictions for the Bears.
Week 1: Vs. Atlanta
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What a way to start the regular season, right?
Trying to slow the team that just went to the Super Bowl isn't an easy task, especially when the Atlanta Falcons still have Matt Ryan orchestrating an offense with weapons like Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel and runners like Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Granted, this one comes at home, and the Bears are better than they were a year ago on both sides of the football. Leonard Floyd will likely pressure Ryan often, but he doesn't have much help given the unknown timetable on Pernell McPhee and Lamarr Houston heading to injured reserve.
But Mike Glennon's attempt to keep up in an arms race with Ryan in Week 1 is going to be the disaster it sounds like it could be.
Prediction: Falcons 34, Bears 17
Week 2: At Tampa Bay
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The good news about an early-season contest with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Like Glennon's efforts to adapt to new surroundings, his former team won't have hit stride yet, with quarterback Jameis Winston targeting DeSean Jackson and trying to figure out who starts in the backfield.
Make no mistake, though—these Buccaneers are dangerous.
But a Jordan Howard-led attack looks like it will be able to grind this one out provided Glennon takes care of the football when tasked with throwing a pass.
In a defensive-minded affair, look for the Bears to pull off the upset with a late kick.
Prediction: Bears 20, Buccaneers 17
Week 3: Vs. Pittsburgh
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In many ways, the Bears look like a team trying to emulate the gritty ways of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The emulation simply isn't strong enough yet.
With the injury fate of Prince Amukamara still unknown, it is hard to imagine the Bears will be able to keep pace with Antonio Brown. And while Floyd and others applying pressure is great, Steelers signal-caller Ben Roethlisberger has a habit of shaking off pressure, and it doesn't do much to slow Le'Veon Bell.
Pittsburgh's defense is still the usual powerhouse too, even getting better with the addition of rookie T.J. Watt. It looks like tough sledding personified for Howard, who won't be able to do it all on his own.
Prediction: Steelers 35, Bears 20
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Week 4: At Green Bay
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Remember the analysis about the encounter with the Falcons?
Rinse and repeat here.
Actually? Make it even worse considering this one goes down on the road. The Green Bay Packers only lost two games at home a year ago, and seeing as this one goes down in Week 4, the majority of Aaron Rodgers' offense should not only be healthy but also hitting full stride.
Granted, the Bears won at Lambeau Field in 2015. But much of the NFL these days comes down to the better quarterback. Rodgers in a friendly environment, strong Bears pass rush or not, figures to be too much for Glennon to handle.
Keep in mind too that Bears corners will likely be gassed by this point of the season (already). They go from Jones to Mike Evans to Brown to Jordy Nelson and others.
Prediction: Bears 21, Packers 33
Week 5: Vs. Minnesota
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This might as well be a flip of a coin.
The Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings once a year ago, a 20-10 affair. They lost later in the season 38-10.
Last year isn't a great indicator of how this season will play out, but it is nice to have the perspective. These teams are similar in many ways, with uninspiring quarterback play and goals of being a run-first powerhouse while the defense leads the way.
In Week 5, though, Chicago will be desperate to right the ship at home and likely get to tee off on rookie running back Dalvin Cook. Minnesota has weapons through the air like Adam Thielen, but this is by far the worst offense the Bears will see to date.
Coming off the first four offenses encountered, this will feel like a cakewalk at home.
Prediction: Vikings 13, Bears 21
Week 6: At Baltimore
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Will Bears fans be screaming for rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky by this point?
It's hard to say, though it is even harder to see head coach John Fox throwing him to the wolves on the road against a defense like the one the Baltimore Ravens will trot out in Week 6.
Luckily for the Bears, Baltimore's offense isn't scary, even after the addition of Jeremy Maclin. Quarterback Joe Flacco hasn't been healthy this offseason, and his running game isn't strong enough to carry the entire unit.
Baltimore presents a big problem for the Chicago offense thanks to elite names like Brandon Williams. But Howard faced tougher defenses last year with a worse passing game backing him and succeeded. Expect more of the same here.
Prediction: Bears 23, Ravens 17
Week 7: Vs. Carolina
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It's never easy trying to project a matchup between two teams on the rebound.
For instance, the Bears are trying to bounce back from having one of the most injured rosters in recent memory and are doing so in the middle of a major rebuild. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, are looking to get back to playoff contention while led by a former MVP.
Carolina might be on the road here, but Cam Newton will give the defense problems. He not only has a new deep threat in Curtis Samuel, but he also has versatile rookie running back Christian McCaffrey to help keep the Bears honest, if not pairing with Jonathan Stewart to beat them at their own run-first attack.
Provided the Carolina attack is healthy, which also happens to include Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, as usual here, the Bears will have a hard time keeping pace.
Prediction: Panthers 24, Bears 20
Week 8: At New Orleans
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Notice a theme yet?
The Bears have an extremely underrated roster heading in the right direction, and Pace has done an outstanding job with the rebuild. But a difference in quarterback play is the only one that matters most of the time, hence Pace's trade up for Trubisky in the first place.
A contest on the road against the New Orleans Saints will only make this example all the more extreme.
Drew Brees is Drew Brees and has speedy weapons like Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and Ted Ginn Jr. at wideout, not to mention the bruising duo of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in the backfield.
On the road, this one could get ugly as the Chicago defense gets little help from the offense.
Prediction: Bears 24, Saints 35
Week 10: Vs. Green Bay
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This is the slight problem with the way the Bears approached the quarterback position this offseason—is coming out of the bye week a good time to introduce Trubisky if it means a head-to-head encounter with Rodgers?
Again, it's hard to say. But it is tough to escape the notion the Bears could steal a win from the Packers this season, with both matchups coming before Week 11.
Last year, the Bears rattled off 17 fourth-quarter points to almost upset the Packers in a 30-27 defeat. If the Bears are lucky, they will be healthy for the matchup, which comes at home.
Howard rattled off 90 yards and a score in the aforementioned loss a year ago, so a better passing game behind him this time out should help the Bears gain some national attention by taking down a familiar opponent.
Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 27
Week 11: Vs. Detroit
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The Bears looked much better against the Detroit Lions a year ago than most would probably care to admit.
In the first encounter, Brian Hoyer torched the Lions with 302 yards and two touchdowns. The second meeting was a three-point loss.
Make no mistake, though, Chicago's success against their NFC North rivals stemmed from Howard's shredding on the ground and opening up the passing game. He totaled 197 rushing yards against the Lions over two games, and it is hard to imagine improved quarterback play doesn't at least create similar numbers.
Granted, Detroit has to hope rookie linebacker Jarrad Davis can help against Howard. But the Lions haven't changed much offensively, while the Bears have improved and (if lucky) are healthier than a year ago. At home, Bears fans can expect the team to jump out to an advantage in the season series.
Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 27
Week 12: At Philadelphia
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When Week 12 hits and it becomes time to say hello to old friend Alshon Jeffery, Bears fans shouldn't necessarily count on it going Chicago's way.
Lincoln Financial Field is a tough place to play regardless of how strong the Philadelphia Eagles are in a given year, let alone when they have a strong wideout like Jeffery thinking about a revenge game.
But this isn't just about Jeffery. Rather, it is about the offense around him thanks to the expected second-year jump for quarterback Carson Wentz, who gets to lean on Jeffery, Torrey Smith and Zach Ertz. LeGarrette Blount and Darren Sproles quietly form what could be one of the league's better one-two punches too.
In the November cold, the Chicago quarterback will also have to deal with guys like Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox. It's best not to forget about potential breakout rookie edge-rusher Derek Barnett, either.
In a year or two, Chicago could inhabit the rising slot the Eagles hold. But not in Week 12 of 2017.
Prediction: Bears 20, Eagles 27
Week 13: Vs. San Francisco
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The Bears get a softball over the plate here after a tough trip to Philadelphia.
While the San Francisco 49ers will be quite a bit better in 2017 thanks to signings like Pierre Garcon and drafting players like Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster, Bears fans know all too well the pitfalls of a Brian Hoyer-led offense.
Chicago's defense shouldn't have a hard time welcoming Hoyer back to town. He leads an offense with few threats, and his defense has plenty of holes for the Bears to exploit, leading to an easy win.
Fortunate, because the schedule picks up again the next week.
Prediction: 49ers 13, Bears 30
Week 14: At Cincinnati
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The Cincinnati Bengals have fallen under the radar after a tough 2016, though it is easy to forget injuries to guys like A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert were part of the problem.
Fast-forward to Week 14 of the 2017 campaign, and those guys could be healthy while joining explosive rookies John Ross and Joe Mixon. The typically strong Cincinnati defense will also be present to play host to the Bears.
Chicago has the running game to compete in this contest, especially in the bruising cold. But whether Howard's secondary can run with guys like Green long enough to let Floyd apply pressure doesn't have an easy answer.
Much of this contest's result might hinge on whether the Bengals are in the playoff race. Given health and major additions, the Bears figure to come up short on the road thanks to a few explosive plays.
Prediction: Bears 20, Bengals 27
Week 15: At Detroit
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The brutal schedule keeps on putting the Bears through the wringer for this stretch.
We projected a Chicago home win against Detroit in Week 11, but a few weeks in NFL land can be an eternity.
Keep in mind a small detail about this one too: The Bears haven't won in Detroit since 2012.
Chicago has the running game to keep quarterback Matthew Stafford off the field and an edge-rusher like Floyd to help fluster him when on it. But after a grueling rebuilding season and a few games left, the Bears are going to have a hard time pulling off an upset in a locale in which they have struggled lately.
Look for Stafford and his well-tuned offense to cruise.
Prediction: Bears 14, Lions 24
Week 16: Vs. Cleveland
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Say hello to the final realistic launching point for Trubisky if he hasn't taken the field already.
The Bears finally get a break here after a tough stretch, getting to beat up on the Cleveland Browns.
Which isn't meant to disrespect the Browns. Head coach Hue Jackson has the team headed in the right direction via a major roster overhaul and bringing aboard players like Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers. They also have plenty of hype surrounding rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer.
But Chicago, at least for now, is a step ahead in the rebuilding process. The offense can control the pace with the ground game, and the defense can more than handle a rookie on the road on Christmas Eve.
Prediction: Browns 20, Bears 27
Week 17: At Minnesota
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Will the Bears have something to play for while closing the regular season in Minnesota?
They didn't last year en route to the aforementioned 38-10 loss. This year is more unpredictable. The projections above don't suggest the Bears will have much motivation other than escaping healthy. But there could always be the Trubisky effect.
Let's lean on the former. The Bears know this is a transitional year, and so too do plenty of the players on short-term deals. Heck, so does the coaching staff that guided the team to that loss last year while draft positioning was at stake.
And like the Bears did the week prior in these projections, the Vikings will be looking to end their final game at home on a high note. Expect a defensive-minded affair to go to the home side.
Prediction: Bears 17, Vikings 27
Final Record: 7-9
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As mentioned in the intro, the Chicago Bears and their fans aren't expecting a run to the Super Bowl in 2017. Even the playoffs seems like a long shot.
And to be fair, most NFL teams aren't capable of a giant turnaround over the course of one year. Picking up four more wins here as opposed to the three from 2016 is a bigger jump than most might appreciate.
For a transitional year, it isn't a terrible improvement. Some might argue it is exactly where the Bears want to be. What follows is another high-profile draft class and plenty of cap space to use in free agency to address problem areas.
The win total here might not jump off the page, but if it coincides with play from younger players that jumps off the screen, it classifies as a mission accomplished for the Bears.
And it sure beats suffering through a season like last year's three-win debacle.
All contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless otherwise specified. Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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