Panthers vs. Giants: Full Carolina Game Preview

One of the few knocks remaining on the Carolina Panthers (13-0) is the relative weakness of their schedule, and there’s some truth in those criticisms.  Only one of Carolina’s last five games—Week 11 against Washington—was against a team that was really still in the midst of the playoff hunt; while none of Tennessee, Dallas, New Orleans or Atlanta were mathematically eliminated at the time, all were more or less among the league's bottom teams.  Teams like Carolina should be expected to win those games.

This week, that changes with the toughest game remaining on Carolina’s regular-season schedule—a road trip to the New York Giants (6-7).  The Giants are, as their record indicates, an average team, but that’s enough to keep them very much alive in the NFC East.  In many ways, their win over Miami on Monday night kept them afloat, and they’ll be looking to continue that momentum into a matchup against the undefeated Panthers.

For undefeated teams, playing the New York Giants should rightfully cause some concerns.  Nine times in NFL history, the Giants have beaten the last undefeated team:

• In 1932, they beat the then-8-0-1 Green Bay Packers, 6-0.
• In 1934, they beat the then-13-0 Chicago Bears in the NFL Championship, 30-13.
• In 1938, they beat the then-2-0-1 Washington Redskins, 10-7.
• In 1946, they beat the then-3-0-1 Chicago Bears, 14-0.
• In 1958, they beat the then-6-0 Baltimore Colts, 24-21.
• In 1963, they beat the then-6-0 Cleveland Browns, 33-6.
• In 1979, they beat the then-5-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 17-14.
• In 1998, they beat the then-13-0 Denver Broncos, 20-16.
• In 2007, they beat the then-18-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, 17-14.

No other team has knocked off the last remaining unbeaten team as many times as the Giants have.

It only feels like Tom Coughlin was around for the 1932 matchup, but Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning were there for that Super Bowl win, which ended the dream of the perfect season for New England.  That’s more relevant than the wins in the ‘30s—that, and the presence of likely Pro Bowl playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. on offense.

The last time the two teams played, Coughlin and Manning were around, as well, but that didn’t go so well for the Giants.  In September 2013, the Panthers handed the Giants a 38-0 loss, which was the worst of the Coughlin era at the time, with Cam Newton scoring both through the air and on the ground, and the defense finding a way to sack Manning seven times.  That’s the history the Panthers want to remember, as opposed to the results of the 1934 NFL Championship Game.

If the Panthers are going to lose in the regular season, this is your most likely scenario—a road trip to a cold-weather site (though temperatures are supposed to remain above freezing on Sunday) against a team with a powerful offense with its back against the wall and needing a win to keep its legitimate playoff hopes alive. 

The Panthers also have injury concerns on both offense and defense to navigate as they try to join the 1948 Cleveland Browns, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the 2007 New England Patriots and the 2009 Indianapolis Colts at 14-0.

History, in other words, surrounds the game—be it the history of the biggest loss for Coughlin’s Giants, the four 14-0 teams waiting to see if the Panthers join them or the Giants’ history of ruining perfect seasons.  It all adds up to, if perhaps not the best game of the week, the most intriguing of the 1 p.m. ET starts and what should be a fantastic game on Sunday.

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.

Time: 1 p.m. ET

TV: Fox, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call for the third time this year

Week 14 Results and Recap

Associated Press

Ted Ginn Jr. had two long touchdowns in the first quarter against Atlanta.

The Panthers exploded out of the blocks on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons in one of the most decisive blowouts in franchise history.  They jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and coasted to a 38-0 victory, tying the largest margin in franchise history, as they clinched a first-round bye.

The first quarter told the tale.  The Panthers had 260 yards of offense and 21 points in the first 15 minutes.  The yardage was both a franchise record for most yards in a quarter and more than any other team has put up in a single quarter this season.  The 21 first-quarter points also tied a franchise record.  A large part of it was two long bombs to Ted Ginn Jr., who continues to be a functional deep threat while wearing Carolina blue.

On defense, Matt Ryan was hurried and harried as Carolina recorded five sacks and four takeaways, further cementing the demolition.  They held Atlanta to just 3.7 yards per play while having 7.0 yards per play on offense—it was just one of the most impressive beatdowns you’ll ever see and the complete game that Ron Rivera has been looking for all season.

The Giants played a much more entertaining game on Monday night, when Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. hooked up.  Manning threw four touchdown passes, two of them to Beckham, as the Giants beat the Miami Dolphins 31-24.

The win makes the NFC East very interesting—three teams are tied at 6-7, with only Dallas trailing behind.  If Manning can keep putting up great performances like this one—he set a career high by completing 87 percent of his passes, and his 151.5 passer rating was his highest since 2009—the Giants have just as good a chance as anyone else of making the playoffs.

NFC South Standings

1. z-Carolina Panthers (13-0)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7, over ATL via head-to-head)
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
4. New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Panthers have already clinched the division, but the other three teams remain mathematically, if not particularly likely, alive in the playoff hunt.

New Orleans picked up a win that essentially squelched Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes.  Brees threw a couple of touchdown passes to Marques Colston and won for the first time in five games, beating Tampa Bay 24-17.

NFC Playoff Picture

1. z-Carolina Panthers (13-0)
2. x-Arizona Cardinals (11-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
4. Washington Redskins (6-7, over NYG and PHI via head-to-head)
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-5, over MIN via head-to-head)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-5)

Five of the six NFC playoff teams are pretty much set, if not the seeds.  Carolina and Arizona have already punched their playoff tickets, while Green Bay, Seattle and Minnesota seem likely to win spots themselves, with no other team over .500 and just three games left to play.  The NFC East is a three-way race between Washington, New York and Philadelphia in all likelihood.

Only San Francisco and Detroit are mathematically eliminated, but the other six teams would require highly improbable and specific combinations of results to really be in contention.

Carolina has more or less wrapped up home-field advantage through the playoffs; only the Cardinals can catch them now, and it would require Carolina losing at least two of their last three games.  They can sew up the top seed this weekend if things fall their way.

News and Notes

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Jonathan Stewart will miss his first game of the season.

Carolina Can Clinch Home-Field Advantage

The last remaining relevant regular-season milestone can be sewn up on Sunday.  The Panthers will clinch the NFC's top seed if they beat the Giants and Philadelphia tops Arizona on Sunday Night Football.

This is far from a lock.  The Giants, as we’re discussing, are the toughest team remaining on Carolina’s schedule, and a road trip is always more likely to produce a loss than a home game would.  The Sunday Night game follows a similar pattern—a top NFC team having to go on the road against an inconsistent but possibly dangerous NFC East opponent that will be fighting to keep its very-real playoff hopes alive.

As such, I think the probabilities are more likely that the Panthers will in fact have something to play for next week in Atlanta.  Both the Panthers and Cardinals are favored, according to Odds Shark, and both are the better teams. 

I do think the Cardinals are more likely to get upset than the Panthers are, but they are favored for a reason.  I’d put the odds of both the Panthers and Eagles winning at somewhere between 25 and 30 percent; neither outcome is a lock by any stretch of the imagination, and both games should be close.

What might be the best-case scenario for Panthers fans, actually, would be both the Panthers and Cardinals winning.  It would take away the difficulties of deciding who to rest in Week 16 at Atlanta, making that game meaningful, and would set up a situation where the Panthers could clinch the top seed with a win, rather than by watching TV on Sunday night.  Only a Carolina loss and an Arizona win will put the top seed in any significant jeopardy.

Injuries Will Be Significant

The Panthers will have significant injury concerns on both sides of the ball on Sunday.

On offense, Coach Rivera told reporters Jonathan Stewart will miss his first game of the year with a sprained left foot. Stewart has been remarkably healthy all year long, which is a rarity for him—he hasn’t played in all 16 games since 2011.  He’s also received 73.8 percent of Carolina’s non-quarterback rushing attempts this season; he’s carried the ball 242 times compared to Mike Tolbert’s 45.  That heavy workload makes his health this season even more surprising.

Some combination of Tolbert, Fozzy Whittaker and rookie Cameron Artis-Payne will carry the ball on Sunday.

Coach Ron Rivera clarified that he’s being “extremely cautious” with Stewart, implying that if the Panthers hadn’t essentially clinched everything by this point, Stewart might be able to play.  He’s still wearing a walking boot, and simple rest should be enough to get him back to full speed, but he won’t be suiting up on Sunday.

On defense, Bene Benwikere fractured his leg against Atlanta, ending his season.  That’s forcing Charles Tillman, who has missed the past four games with a hyperextended knee, to move his timetable forward.  Rivera said that, ideally, the team would give Tillman another week to recover and get his conditioning back, but Benwikere’s injury has forced their hand.

Couple that with the knocks a number of other players are trying to get over, and Carolina’s depth will be significantly tested on Sunday.

Panthers Lead the NFL in Scoring

The Panthers have never led the NFL in scoring over a full season before.  They finished fourth in 1999, when Steve Beuerlein, Muhsin Muhammad and Wesley Walls led the way forward for the franchise, scoring 26.3 points per game, but that was the previous high-water mark.

This year, however, they’ve scored 411 points—already the third-most in franchise history, with three games to go—for an average of 31.6 points per game.  That leads the league, a full six points ahead of the Arizona Cardinals in second place.  The only other team within 50 points are the New England Patriots, sitting at 402 points scored.

ESPN’s David Newton gives five reasons why the offense has been productive: the improvements of Cam Newton and Mike Shula, their improved rapport with one another, a higher percentage of big plays, the addition of Ted Ginn giving them a quick-strike ability they lacked last season and a strong defense putting them in good position to score points.  All of these have helped in significant, quantifiable ways.

The question is whether or not the Panthers can hold on to the lead over the Cardinals and Patriots—it seems likely that they will improve upon their fourth-place finish in 1999, but both Arizona and New England have strong offenses that will make it tough to top the league.

Carolina faces one average defense in Tampa Bay, one below-average defense in Atlanta and one poor defense in the New York Giants the rest of the way.

Arizona has a great defense in Seattle, an above-average defense in Green Bay and an average defense in Philadelphia in their three remaining games.

New England faces a good defense in the New York Jets and two poor defenses in Tennessee and Miami in their final three games.

Further complicating the issue is when and how much Carolina will be resting starters down the stretch, making an accurate guess as to who will come out on top more difficult.

If I had to make a prediction, I’d say New England’s matchup with Tennessee this week will vault it into first place in terms of points, but a strong finish against Atlanta and Tampa Bay will push Carolina over 500 points for the season and into first place, and the most points scored since the 2013 Denver Broncos topped 600.

Injuries

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Greg Olsen may play a week after going down in the end zone.

For the first time in weeks, the Carolina Panthers’ injury report is longer and more significant than their opponents, the New York Giants.

Panthers Injuries

• First, the good news.  CB Charles Tillman (knee) was a full participant at practice.   Tillman reportedly has a partially torn ACL, per Bill Voth of the Black and Blue Review, but the fact that he was able to put in a full day is a good sign.  The team is planning on seeing how his knee responds before making a decision on his availability, both on Sunday and for the rest of the season.  The Panthers have also promoted Lou Young from the practice squad, just in case Tillman can’t go.  His presence will be needed with Bene Benwikere out for the season.  Cortland Finnegan might get a larger role if Tillman can’t go.
• RB Jonathan Stewart (foot) did not practice, the Panthers announced, and he will miss the game on Sunday. Fozzy Whittaker will get the likely start, but expect to see more of a committee with Mike Tolbert and Cameron Artis-Payne receiving snaps as well.
• WR Brenton Bersin (groin) continues to be sidelined, though he did some work on the side on Wednesday, per Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer.  He’s not likely to be a factor even if healthy.
• TE Greg Olsen (knee) says he expects to be active on Sunday, per USA Today's Tom Pelissero and is just easing his way back into practice after suffering a scary-looking knee tweak against Atlanta.  If he suffers a setback, Ed Dickson will have to play a significant role.
• LB David Mayo (hamstring) is out for at least two weeks with the hamstring injury he suffered against Atlanta, per Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer.  That’s not a big loss on defense, but Mayo has been playing a lot on special teams.
• S Colin Jones (groin) also suffered a soft-tissue injury against Atlanta and is day-to-day, per Person.
• WR Jerricho Cotchery, WR Ted Ginn, C Ryan Kalil, DE Jared Allen, DT Dwan Edwards, LB Thomas Davis and S Roman Harper all received veterans’ days off and should all be ready to go for Sunday.

Giants Injuries

• Rookie OT Ereck Flowers (ankle) has been dealing with a high ankle sprain.  He played on Monday night but re-aggravated the injury.  Tom Coughlin and the Giants are basically waiting to see what happens, per Jordan Raanan of NJ Advance Media, so consider him day-to-day and questionable.  If he can’t play, the Giants might move guard Justin Pugh to tackle and have Dallas Reynolds come in to play guard.
• DE George Selvie (concussion) suffered a concussion on Monday night and would have to clear the protocol to have a chance of playing.
• DT Markus Kuhn (knee) suffered a knee injury against Miami and was having an MRI on Wednesday to determine the significance of the injury, per Art Stapleton of the Record.  Montori Hughes might get more snaps in his absence, but the Giants may need to add another body to the interior of their line.
• LB Devon Kennard (foot/hamstring) will not be ready this week, per Tom Coughlin.  J.T. Thomas will continue to start in his absence.

Key Matchups

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Odell Beckham is a matchup problem every week.

OTs Michael Oher and Mike Remmers vs. DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and Robert Ayers

The Giants’ defensive strength comes from their pass-rushers around the edges—Ayers and Pierre-Paul.  JPP doesn’t actually have any sacks this season, but in only five games, he’s already recorded 26 quarterback hurries and five quarterback hits, per Pro Football Focus.  Ayers has also missed time, playing only eight games, but he has five sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 21 hurries.  That’s a heck of a duo on the outside to deal with.

Pierre-Paul, especially, has provided a spark for the Giants defense.  After missing the beginning of the season thanks to the fireworks injury that cost him a finger, Pierre-Paul has been a dynamo in the pass rush.  However, he hasn’t been as solid at wrapping up runners, possibly due to the hard club he’s forced to wear over his injured hand.

Pierre-Paul’s return means the Giants' pass rush isn’t short-handed, and Oher and Remmers are going to have to work hard to ensure they don’t spend all day in the backfield tormenting Cam Newton.

CB Josh Norman vs. WR Odell Beckham Jr.

This is what you’re paying to see.  Norman has yet to allow 50 yards receiving in a single game this season.  Beckham has topped 100 yards in each of his last six games.  It’s Pro Bowler versus Pro Bowler, budding star versus superstar.  The best chance the Giants have of winning this game is a series of spectacular Beckham catches.

The one thing that may slow down the Norman-Beckham battle is Beckham’s tendency to play in the slot.  According to PFF, Beckham has run 120 routes out of the slot or about 24 percent of the time.  Norman’s only played seven snaps in the slot all season or about 1 percent of the time—that’s been Benwikere’s spot.  It will be interesting to see if the Panthers move Norman out of his comfort zone or if they try to match up against Beckham with lesser players.  That’s a major strategic decision that could have a massive impact on the game.

QB Eli Manning vs. Kawann Short and the Pass Rush

Eli Manning is having a solid season statistically—he has a quarterback rating of 96.0, which would be the highest of his career.  However, it hasn’t been consistently solid—he’s been up and down all year long.  He’s coming off the best game of the season, however—he was 27-of-31 for 337 yards and four touchdowns against Miami.  That’s obviously a problem.

When under pressure, however, Manning has been very bad this season.  He’s 74-of-146 for 873 yards under pressure; his completion percentage drops by nearly 20 points, per PFF.  His offensive line has done a good job keeping him out of trouble, but disrupting him has been a key to questionable performances.  We’ll see if the Panthers can bring him down on Sunday.

X-Factors

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Jared Allen has had success against the Giants in the past.

Carolina X-Factor: DE Jared Allen

The last time the Giants and the Panthers faced off, the Panthers sacked Eli Manning seven times.  That’s a hard number to live up to, but a strong pass rush will make the rest of the defense’s job that much easier on Sunday.

Allen has picked up one sack in each of his last three games against the Giants, all when he was a Minnesota Viking from 2009-13.  That’s obviously a streak he’d like to keep going.  Furthering his cause, he’ll either be matched up against first-round rookie Ereck Flowers or a backup, likely left guard Justin Pugh forced to move to the outside.  Those are both positive matchups for the veteran Allen; and there’s a very good chance he’ll extend his Giants-sacking streak.

New York X-Factor: C Weston Richburg

Last year’s second-round pick, Richburg has been an anchoring force in the middle of New York’s offensive line this season—he was one of PFF’s four Pro Bowl centers, per Khaled Elsayed, just beating out Eric Wood.

Richburg played very well against Ndamukong Suh on Monday and has an equally tough task against Kawann Short this week.  Richburg has yet to allow a sack this season, per PFF, and he has not allowed Manning to get hit one time this season.  He’ll be called upon to have another solid day this week, especially if Pugh has to move out to tackle.

Prediction: Panthers 28, Giants 24

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Jared Allen and the Panthers will improve to 14-0.

There’s every reason to predict a possible Giants upset here—you have the Panthers, beat up, on a road trip.  You have a Giants team with their backs against the wall, meaning they’ll pull out all the stops in a matchup that’s almost a playoff game for them. The Panthers are worried about not getting hurt, the Giants are worried about not making the playoffs at all.

You have the potential for a high-scoring combination of Manning and Beckham, and explosive plays are always a way to pull off upsets.  Against a terrific defense like Carolina’s, it’s easier to explode for 60 yards on one play than it is to pull off a sustained, consistent drive.  Essentially, underdogs like the Giants want to succeed on high-risk, high-variance plays, and throwing the ball up to Beckham to make a spectacular one-handed catch is just that sort of play.

If you told me that the Panthers would certainly not go 16-0, this is the matchup I would predict they would lose.

However, I can think of at least 13 reasons why the Panthers shouldn’t be doubted.  Let’s be fair—a road trip to New York isn’t the most inviting situation the Panthers could ask for, but it’s not like the Giants are a particularly good team. If the Panthers were rolling into Pittsburgh or New England this weekend, then they would be more likely to have difficulties.

While New York’s passing offense has been solid this season, it's been poor at moving the ball on the ground.  That makes it one-dimensional and easier to stop defensively.  The Giants also have a poor defense; while they’ve been decent at stopping the run, they’ve had real issues stopping the pass.

The Giants are not a bad team, and they have several things they do well.  That, plus the home game and Carolina’s injury status, gives them a fighting chance in this game.  At this point, however, I think Carolina’s overall quality will be enough to see them reach 14-0.

They will not clinch home-field advantage, though.  Arizona will go into Philadelphia and win a tight game there, keeping the fate of the NFC still an open question with two games to play.  Carolina will have to win next week at Atlanta to be NFC champs.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.