Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for Atlanta Hawks' 2015-16 Season
After winning 60 regular-season tilts and securing an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in 2014-15, the Atlanta Hawks have a very specific problem on their hands: Where do they go from here?
Although they did lose DeMarre Carroll to the Toronto Raptors in free agency, the Hawks are still in a position of relevance. They retained Paul Millsap, traded for Tiago Splitter and have the ability to replace Carroll with a platoon of Tim Hardaway Jr., Justin Holiday, Kent Bazemore and a healthy Thabo Sefolosha.
But new seasons bring varying levels of optimism, pessimism and realism. In this preview for the upcoming 2015-16 campaign, I synced with Bleacher Report's foremost authority on all things Hawks, Adam Fromal, to help us sort through the different ways in which we can judge Atlanta's encore bid.
Can the Hawks replicate last season's success? Are they due for a drastic decline following a franchise-best crusade? Or will they, like so many others, fall somewhere in between?
Hotlanta Homerism
DeMarre who?
Rather than focus on who the Hawks don't employ, look at whom they do. As coach Mike Budenholzer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore:
"Having Thabo (Sefolosha) having played for a year with us and having him know how we do things defensively and offensively. He’s played on really good teams and on teams in the finals and on teams that have had really good success. I think we are very hopeful that he gets healthy and ready. That gives you some confidence that there is a start. I think Kent Bazemore’s growth and development as the season progressed, including the playoffs. He is a unique player with his length and everything. Then adding Tim Hardaway Jr. and Justin Holiday gives us what we feel like is a lot of depth.
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Some combination of Hardaway, Holiday, Bazemore and Sefolosha should help soften the blow of Carroll's departure; Kyle Korver only misses threes in his worst nightmares; Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder are among the NBA's best one-two point guard bunches; they have what is unequivocally the most dangerous frontcourt rotation around in Al Horford, Millsap and Splitter.
That frontcourt beast is the key. All three are exceptional playmakers for their position, Millsap and Horford can now score from anywhere on the floor, and Splitter, when healthy, ranks as one of Association's premiere rim protectors. Both he and Horford held opponents to 50 percent or less shooting at the rim last season, despite contesting at least five point-blank opportunities per game apiece.
Another year into Budenholzer's offense should only make the Hawks' top-six point-piling attack even more dangerous. And that, along with their defensive fortitude in the frontcourt, means they'll once again be among the league's best two-way teams.
Homer Adam's Prediction: With everyone healthy and Mike Budenholzer turning Justin Holiday into DeMarre Carroll 2.0, the Hawks don't skip a beat. The first 60-win season in franchise history is no longer the best mark when April rolls around.
Pessimism in the Big Peach
Miss you, DeMarre.
Sugarcoating Carroll's departure doesn't always work. He led the Hawks in playoff win shares and was someone they could toss on the opposition's most dangerous perimeter scorer, whether he was a shooting guard, small forward or power forward.
A four-man replacement rotation of Hardaway, Holiday, Bazemore and Sefolosha won't necessarily get the job done. Sefolosha is on the wrong side of 30 and working his way back from a broken right fibula and ligament damage. Not one of Hardaway, Holiday or Bazemore has ever averaged 25 minutes per game.
And let's not forget the manner in which the Hawks stumbled through the playoffs, unconvincingly surviving matchups with the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards before being manhandled by a Cleveland Cavaliers squad that was without Kevin Love in the Eastern Conference Finals.
There's still talent in Atlanta. Just not enough to justify the repeat of a 2014-15 season that, truthfully, may have been a one-off reflection of a good-but-not-great team getting lucky.
Pessimistic Adam's Prediction: With their confidence shattered by the many open looks that clanged off the rim in the 2015 playoffs, the Hawks struggle to recapture the magic all year. There's talent here, but it doesn't coalesce nearly as well, leading to a free fall so far down the Eastern Conference standings they lose home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Hollywood of the South's Realist
It's totally possible for the Hawks to be just a dangerous next season, even without Carroll. Their four remaining starters actually fared statistically better alongside Sefolosha.
An improved, even if only slightly improved, Eastern Conference hurts them just as much as anything.
Cleveland is the clear favorite to replace Atlanta as the East's regular-season wins leader. Toronto made four key additions in Bismack Biyombo, Cory Joseph, Luis Scola and Carroll. The Chicago Bulls aren't going anywhere.
The Miami Heat will finally deploy their feared five-man unit of Chris Bosh, Luol Deng, Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside. The Wizards still have some punch in them following Paul Pierce's departure. The Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks all look better on paper.
Many or all of these teams may not be as good as Atlanta in the end. But the Eastern Conference's middle class is markedly wider, increasing the likelihood that they pull one of last year's contenders down to their level.
Realistic Adam's Prediction: Carroll was the most expendable of the Hawks' five typical starters, but losing him still hurts. That, coupled with some natural regression after an overachieving 2014-15, leaves this squad fighting for the No. 2 seed with a bunch of other teams that fall just short of being true championship contenders.
Stats and career earnings courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
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