NBA Insiders Feel Warriors Will Have Plenty of Competition for Draymond Green
The consensus among various NBA general managers, pro personnel directors, scouts and assistant coaches is that Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green is not a restricted free agent teams will chase this summer as if he were a No. 1 or 2 option.
But because the NBA is fat with cash and looming salary-cap space, some still expect a handful of teams to explore giving Green, who emerged in his third season as both an offensive and defensive linchpin for the NBA champion Warriors, an offer sheet, even if it means making it worth close to a maximum-salary deal.
"There is so much money in the market with the salary cap bumping up," said one Western Conference GM. "There will be someone that recognizes what he does and how he fits and make a play for him."
"If he's the guy you're calling plays for, you struggle and he struggles," said the assistant coach of a Western Conference playoff team that faced the Warriors. "He's a glue guy, a fit-in guy. But if you're a team close to playing for a championship, then you'd be justified in paying him whatever it takes to get him. Put him next to James Harden and Dwight Howard, he flourishes. His ability to space the floor is what makes the difference. Put him on Houston, a healthy Oklahoma City team or San Antonio, he still has the same impact he has had with the Warriors."
An Eastern Conference assistant GM added the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks to the list of potential suitors that could also make sense, depending on those teams' other moving parts.
"I could see him in Atlanta, depending on what happens with (free agent Paul) Millsap," the assistant GM said.
Even trickier may be how Green will fit into a team's salary structure. Green made roughly $915,000 in 2014-15. League sources speculate his next deal could be worth $14-16 million annually and as much as $91 million in total if he stays put. Taking a max deal with the Warriors would give him a little more each year than if he left and also would allow him to make an additional $20.6 million in a fifth year, which other suitors could not offer.
The Rockets and Thunder don't have the cap space to unilaterally make Green an offer. The Hawks and Spurs could, depending on what happens with their own free agents, and they're both teams whose systems rely on versatile big men, which is how the 6'7", 230-pound Green is now viewed.
The Pistons and Knicks also could have ample cap room to make a run at Green, but they don't fit into the category of championship contenders. However, they might have the best means of making the Warriors blink by writing an offer sheet that would make it significantly more expensive for the Warriors to keep Green than it would for a team like the Pistons or Knicks to steal him. The trick would be to load their offer terms with big payouts for team and personal achievements that are infinitely more attainable with the Warriors than with the Pistons or Knicks—bonuses that would have to be paid if the team wins 50 games and if Green makes the All-Defensive team again, for example.
Around February's trade deadline, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Green and the Pistons shared mutual interest, which Green said at the time came as news to him, although he does cherish his Michigan roots. Whatever interest there might be would seemingly only be bolstered by Arn Tellem, the vice chairman of the Wasserman Media Group and Green's representation, who announced he will leave WMG in August to take an advisory role with the Detroit franchise.
The Pistons have since acquired Ersan Ilysaova by trade and Stanley Johnson through the draft, and both are considered capable of playing stretch 4, but league sources are not convinced that eliminates Detroit's interest in Green.
"It's a really unique situation. He is a rare free agent in that he would love to go to Detroit," said one NBA talent scout. "They can't lose if they offer him a huge deal. If the Warriors don't match, they've brought home someone the fans would surely love. If the Warriors do match, they tried to bring him home and get the goodwill from that."
The scout also pointed out that Pistons owner Tom Gores is a fellow Michigan State alum.
"I could see him fitting with Detroit even before Arn went there," said one Eastern Conference assistant GM. "There's a good chance they're going to lose (free agent) Greg Monroe, and they let go Josh Smith. Draymond would be the kind of 4 who could play alongside (Pistons center) Andre Drummond."
That Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy also has control over personnel decisions is a factor as well, in that Green is the type of player whose intangibles carry more weight with a coach than a GM, especially an analytics-driven one.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr has made note of those intangibles. Green is easily their most vocal leader in games and their public conscience outside them, and he considers it his responsibility to make sure the team does not physically back down. Green noted when the Warriors trailed the Cavaliers 2-1 in the Finals that the Cavs were playing as if they "were desperate and need something," while the Warriors were playing as if they "were not desperate and got something." The Warriors went on to win the next three games to close out the series.
Even before this season, Green had caught the eyes of NBA coaches. He arrived as a second-round pick from Michigan State labeled as a "tweener" between small and power forward, but several coaching staffs that saw him work out before the draft fell in love with him.
"The intangibles were there for him to be successful," said one assistant coach who attended one of those workouts. "He outworked everyone in the gym. I couldn't tell you who else was there. He stood out that much. He was in better shape, finished every drill, every possession. A lot of times people look at the big things, the measurables, and they miss the little things. What's underappreciated is his intelligence. He knows how defenses are playing him, and he knows how to guard multiple positions. He's always played the game the right way."
The Warriors already knew that Green represented a special component of their team after his first two years with them, but even they didn't anticipate how much success they'd have this season or the role he'd play in it. Promoted to starting power forward thanks to a hamstring injury to David Lee in the team's last preseason game, Green seized the opportunity to flash the offensive skills and improved stamina he worked on over the summer.
Already considered a versatile defender who could play the stretch 4 position thanks to the three-point range he developed the previous summer, Green became the team's second-most proficient playmaker after Stephen Curry this season and could be seen scoring from every distance, not just from beyond the arc.
He also expanded his defensive role, guarding nearly every position at times but being particularly effective in pick-and-rolls, an area of vast improvement for the Warriors overall. He narrowly lost Defensive Player of the Year honors to the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard in overall points (333 to 317) but actually received more first-place votes (45 to 37).
"There's so much respect for San Antonio," said one Western Conference assistant coach. "Not to say Kawhi isn't a great defender, but you can't watch Draymond Green and how he would guard James Harden one game and Marc Gasol the next and the impact he had—it's just hard for me to understand how that guy isn't the Defensive Player of the Year."
No one was talking about Green in those terms when he first arrived. "They compared him to Jared Dudley and Chuck Hayes when he came out of school," said one Eastern Conference assistant GM, referencing two players known for their basketball IQ but considered one-dimensional. "You know, tough kid, but not really sure what he was."
Even with the vast improvement and the Warriors' success, league sources still view him as a smart player capable of playing off a couple of stars rather than being an All-Star himself.
For a Knicks bid for Green to make sense, they also need to acquire several more pieces than they currently have. Team president Phil Jackson does value high-IQ players with all-around skills, which is what Green is, but New York doesn't have much in the way of talent outside of Carmelo Anthony and rookies Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant. "They need to get another really good [free agent]," said a Western Conference pro personnel scout. "That's the only way it makes sense."
The Warriors should learn right away who has enough interest in Green to sign him to an offer sheet. "You go after him early if he's your guy," said one Western Conference GM. "I wouldn't wait. I would think he'd take the hot money."
Even if that offer sheet doesn't come, Green should have the same leverage point guard Eric Bledsoe had with the Phoenix Suns last summer. The Warriors would not want to see Green elect to play one more year and then become an unrestricted free agent.
"I just don't see a lot of people messing around with him, because they see how important he is to (the Warriors)," a Western Conference assistant coach said.
One other danger in signing any free agent to a huge increase is how he responds. Even the most well-intentioned players believe they must play up to or, worse, be treated differently because of a new, fat bank account. Green is not considered a risk to fall prey to that.
"The best part about him is he knows who he is," said the rival assistant coach, "and he's been the same guy since Michigan State. "Some players don't know how to be a role player. He not only does, he knows that's what he is."
Sometimes it's good to be a king. As Green may just prove this summer, sometimes it's not all that bad being a kingmaker, either.
Ric Bucher covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.
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